Thursday, June 30, 2005

in the news this week

WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Congress Thursday that a big increase in tariffs on Chinese imports would "materially lower" U.S. living standards and urged lawmakers instead to let financial markets resolve trade imbalances with that country. (WSJ)

WASHINGTON (AP) - A divided Supreme Court ruled Thursday that local governments may seize people's homes and businesses against their will for private development in a decision anxiously awaited in communities where economic growth often is at war with individual property rights.

The high court's ruling on eminent domain "now allows government to be in cahoots with business to steal property from private owners to give essentially to the highest bidders," said Gordon, the communications director for the Libertarian Party of Connecticut. "It's crossing a line that I hoped we never were going to cross," he told Cybercast News Service.

On Monday June 27, Logan Darrow Clements, faxed a request to Chip Meany the code enforcement officer of the Towne of Weare, New Hampshire seeking to start the application process to build a hotel on 34 Cilley Hill Road. This is the present location of Mr. Souter's home. Clements, CEO of Freestar Media, LLC, points out that the City of Weare will certainly gain greater tax revenue and economic benefits with a hotel on 34 Cilley Hill Road than allowing Mr. Souter to own the land. ( Freestar Media)

NORFOLK, Va. -- Two North Carolina counties have stopped turning over shelter animals to People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals.
Officials said they were surprised to learn the group euthanized cats and dogs instead of trying to find them homes. (AP)

The move by Judge Elizabeth Maas brings to $1.57 billion the amount that Morgan Stanley must pay Perelman, who claimed the firm defrauded him in the 1998 sale of Coleman Co. to Sunbeam Corp. Morgan Stanley must post a $1.8 billion bond before any appeal, the judge said. …Jurors in West Palm Beach, Fla., found May 18 that Morgan Stanley, a Sunbeam adviser, should be punished for misrepresenting its client's financial health and for mishandling e-mails. (NY POST)

Federal prosecutors are investigating one of the nation's most aggressive class-action law firms, Milberg Weiss Bershad & Schulman, for alleged fraud, conspiracy and kickbacks in scores of securities lawsuits, and could seek criminal charges against the firm itself and its principals. (WSJ)

Mr. Hevesi isn't the only one whose campaign has received contributions from Milberg Weiss. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's gubernatorial campaign has already received $15,000 from the firm, and another $35,000 from partner Melvyn Weiss as an individual, according to state campaign-finance records and Cynthia Darrison, managing director of Mr. Spitzer's campaign. That's on top of at least $3,000 the firm contributed to Mr. Spitzer's 2002 campaign for attorney general. (NY SUN)

Iran's new hardline president-elect, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, yesterday threw down a challenge to western leaders by vowing to resist international pressure to abandon the country's nuclear programme and branding Israel the source of instability in the Middle East. (The Guardian, UK)

Watching coverage of Iran's presidential election on television dredged up 25-year-old memories that prompted four of the former hostages to exchange e-mails. And those four realized they shared the same conclusion — the firm belief that President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been one of their Iranian captors(1979 Hostage Crisis).(FOX NEWS)

China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. (Washington Times)

On Fox News, Mr Rumsfeld said: “We're not going to win the insurgency. The Iraqi people are going to win against the insurgency. That insurgency could go on for any number of years. Insurgencies tend to go on five, six, eight, 10, 12 years.” (FT)

Public attitudes toward the press, which have been on a downward track for years, have become more negative in several key areas. Growing numbers of people question the news media's patriotism and fairness. Perceptions of political bias also have risen over the past two years. (PEW Research Center)

About 48 percent of Italians miss their lira and blame the common currency for pushing up prices, according to a June 11 survey by consumer group Telefono Blu. Politicians are attracting tens of thousands of supporters to rallies seeking the 500,000 signatures needed to force a referendum on scrapping the euro. (Bloomberg)

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate from January through March, matching the pace in the previous three months and suggesting Federal Reserve policy makers will keep raising interest rates.

During the first four months of 2005, investors accounted for nearly one in 10 mortgages used to buy homes in the U.S., according to a new analysis by LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. that tracks 46 million mortgages monthly and provides information to lenders and other industry participants. The investor share for the period, 9.86%, compares with 8.67% in 2004 and less than 6% in 2001. (WSJ)

POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. -- A New York state lawmaker says he's embarrassed, after he mistakenly sent out an e-mail message that referred to his constituents as "idiots." (

He is back!

June 24,2005

The Recent sell off looks less about oil prices than and more about the Supreme Court attempting to usurp your property rights. Remember property rights are fundamental to the establishment of all other rights. The greater a society goes about protecting private property rights the more successful and prosperous a society is. News of the Supremes decision to allow government to size your property sent the market reeling. Check the time line on the ticker if you don’t believe me; as soon as the court ruling came out the market tanked and besides oil stocks did not have a particularly good day at all. Since the court left it up to local authorities many states have already passed resolutions forcing the adherence to the strictest definition of property condemnation. Thus we seem back on track with our summer rally by the following Tuesday.

It has been said that there is a sucker born every minute, well I am not sure it is every minute but it certainly at lest once or twice a year. Once again with the help of the mainstream media Warren Buffet the Oracle of Omaha, the Sage of long term value investing is promoting his latest dallies into the stock market. In the past these messages have signaled the tops of markets rather than a buying opportunity. If you don’t believe me ask anyone who bought silver when, the oracle was purported to be buying it. Remember he like everyone else is in the business to make money, not give you free investment advice.

I continue to believe that the higher oil prices have slightly depressed economic activity .Unless they go to some extreme new highs the tremendous productivity growth of the last 4 years more than offsets the “inflationary pressures” and increased direct real costs to consumers. Higher oil prices have indirectly kept interest rates low which is significantly more positive than higher oil prices are a negative in to day’s economy. In the long run higher oil prices may force even greater efficiencies increasing productivity even more. What is too high of an oil price? I am not sure but I am certain it is significantly higher than the current price, my bet somewhere higher than the $90 a barrel seen in 1980.


Friday, June 24, 2005

the court ruling

Yesterdays sell off looks less about oil prices than and more about the Supreme Court attempting to usurp your property rights. Remember property rights are fundamental to the establishment of all other rights. The greater a society goes about protecting private property rights the more successful and prosperous a society is. News of the Supremes decision to allow government to size your property sent the market reeling. Check the time line on the ticker if you don’t believe me; as soon as the court ruling came out the market tanked and besides oil stocks did not have a particularly good day at all.

Thursday, June 23, 2005

in the news

“Mrs. Clinton told me she would consider suing him for outright libel," the top Hillary source explains. "This is the right wing attack machine on crack!" (Matt Drudge)

on the basis of a new study, a team of political scientists is arguing that people's gut-level reaction to issues like the death penalty, taxes and abortion is strongly influenced by genetic inheritance. The new research builds on a series of studies that indicate that people's general approach to social issues - more conservative or more progressive - is influenced by genes. (NY TIMES)

"Please remember, absolutely no ranting and raving about Bush or Blair and the Iraq war, this is not why you have been invited to appear," Geldoff said to the manager of a top recording artist, who asked not to be identified. "We want to bring Mr. Bush in, not run him away."(LIVE 8 founder Bob Geldof)

Thursday, former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson (In 1990, Joseph Wilson became the last American diplomat to meet with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.) admitted that "we all believed" Saddam had WMD. "I believe the threat to the United States posed by Saddam's weapons of mass destruction -- which we all believed he had -- could have been dealt with using something less violent than the invasion, conquest and occupation of Iraq," Wilson said in a response to a question from Cybercast News Service following a Democrat-sponsored hearing on the matter.

Moscow ( - Tensions are running high in Kyrgyzstan ahead of the July 10 presidential election, with recent riots in the capital, Bishkek, showing the fragility of the democratic process in the Central Asian nation.

Today, Iran is ruled by men who suppress liberty at home and spread terror across the world," he said in a written statement for the press. "Power is in the hands of an unelected few who have retained power through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy." (President Bush NY SUN)

WASHINGTON - The choice for Iranians tomorrow in the presidential runoff is between "bad and worse," according to a leader of the July 9, 1999, Tehran University uprisings, Ahmad Batebi. In a phone interview yesterday with The New York Sun, Mr. Batebi said, "The candidates were never elected by the people, the selection of the candidates are from the supreme leader. The people of Iran had no power in choosing any of them." (NY SUN)

"Batman Begins" debuted as the top movie with $46.9 million, while overall movie revenues skidded for the 17th-straight weekend, tying a slide in 1985 that had been the longest box-office decline since analysts began keeping detailed records on movie grosses. (AP)

So what does one figure the Republican leadership in the Congress is going to make of the fact that the no. 2 officer at the United Nations, Mark Malloch Brown, whose current annual net salary as an undersecretary general is $125,000 a year, has emerged as the tenant in a house that Mr. Soros owns and that rents for $120,000 a year? (NY SUN)

The London Sunday Times also quoted Mr. Malloch Brown as saying the atmosphere at the United Nations has become "entirely like revolutionary France, where the level of backstabbing and betrayal would make Shakespeare wince."

40-acre estate in the Hamptons - the Long Island summer retreat of New York's rich and famous, has been sold for $US90 million, a new US record for a residential property.(ABC NEWS)

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, responding to a loosening of mortgage-lending standards, said the risks of defaults are growing for some types of home loans. (WSJ)

London ( - British residents could face a form of energy rationing within the next decade under proposals currently being studied to reduce the U.K.'s carbon dioxide emissions to comply with the Kyoto Protocol.

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- CNOOC Ltd., China's third-largest oil producer, offered to buy Unocal Corp. for $18.5 billion in cash, topping the price Chevron Corp. agreed to pay for the U.S. oil and gas company.

"This is the right wing attack machine on crack!"

June 20, 2005


The way things look my bet is an ever expanding “summer rally”, followed by the traditional fall correction starting in September after labor day and ending around the third week of October and then rallying thru year end. Is this the beginning of something big? Long-term investment returns would suggest yes. The recent rally since the lows of April has shown ever expanding resilience, oil prices have risen yet stock continue to rise. Shhhhhhhhh don’t tell anyone, it is called earnings growth. Higher oil prices and the risks associated with them have long since been factored into the market. As I said last week in the current environment of slightly higher oil prices seems to be a positive, keeping the economy from over heating. Don’t fall for the ‘falling markets in Europe equal higher oil prices” argument. Stocks are down in Europe because of fears that the EU may dissolve.

The other issue that promotes stock gains is the progress being made putting a lot of the “Clinton Era” company crooks in the big house restoring credibility to the market. The wheels of justice may be moving a bit slow for the average investor, but they are moving .From Tyco, WorldCom, Health South, Enron to Adelphia Communication; it is up the river, off to the big house, away at college, on the rock pile and working on the chain gang. Seeing Bernie Evers make license plates wont get your big loses back but it just may be enough for investors to get that warm and fuzzy feeling back for the equity markets.


Wednesday, June 22, 2005

No apology excepted

Listen "little dick" Durban unlike the spineless Republican leadership I do not and will not except your apology

Friday, June 17, 2005

Dick Durban must resign now!

Senator "little dick"I am going to ask you to resign immediately, your recent comments on Gitmo is so reprehensible, dishonest and treasonous, the American people no longer need your service, but I am sure Bin Laden will be glad to hire you. You have not only insulated the US military ,the President ,the American people but worse you have totally denigrated those who were put to death by the most extreme means by the Nazi’s , Pol Pot and the Soviet Prison camps. You owe the souls of these people and apology!

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

in the news

WASHINGTON -- The Congressional Budget Office is expected to tell a House panel today that the federal agency insuring private pension plans has a deficit that will likely more than triple to $71 billion in the next decade, creating more urgency for Congress to consider pension-overhaul legislation. (WSJ)

This year's deficit is coming in lower than anticipated, thanks to the economic recovery and higher-than-expected tax receipts. (WSJ)

"The world is more likely to run out of uses for oil than Saudi Arabia is going to run out of oil," Adel al-Jubeir, top foreign policy adviser for Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah, said Wednesday. (AP)

Surging demand and a shortage of ships pushed freight rates to record highs in December. But since then, the Baltic Dry Index, the main indicator for commodity-freight rates, has fallen by more than half, with the slide accelerating in recent weeks. Industry officials point to a recent cutback in China's imports, particularly of iron ore used in steel production, as the driving force behind the precipitous decline. But the downturn has broader roots. (WSJ)

WASHINGTON - A string of bombings in Iran yesterday killed at least eight people and wounded at least 75, five days before the country's presidential elections, according to wire reports. (NYSUN)

Just days before the Iranian elections hundreds of women protested in front of Tehran University demanding equal rights, freedom, and a stop to sexual discrimination, during an un-permitted demonstration, Tuesday, June 12, 2005, in Tehran, Iran. Police held back many of the protesters and press as men in plain clothing videotaped the crowd. Later on a few of the women were reportedly arrested and hit with batons as they tore down election posters in Englab Square on their way out. (NYSUN)

Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), whose flair for drama has included lugging around a replica of a suitcase-size nuclear bomb, alleges in a new book that Iran is hiding Osama bin Laden, is preparing terrorist attacks against the United States, has a crash program to build an atomic bomb and, as a Shiite country, is the chief sponsor of what is a largely Sunni-directed insurgency in Iraq. (

The annual World Wealth Report, released Thursday by Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and the Capgemini Group consulting firm, found that there were 8.3 million people worldwide with $1 million or more in financial assets at the end of 2004, up from 7.7 million a year earlier.

NEW YORK – Citigroup Inc. said it agreed to pay $2 billion to settle a class-action suit over its role in the sale of Enron Corp. stock and bonds before the energy company's collapse, which cost investors billions of dollars. Citigroup, the nation's biggest financial institution, said that under the settlement it will distribute the payment to investors who bought publicly traded equity and debt securities issued by Enron and its related units between Sept. 9, 1997, and Dec. 2, 2001, when Enron sought bankruptcy protection. (WSJ)

NEW YORK Public trust in newspapers and television news continued to decline in Gallup's annual survey of "public confidence in major institutions" in the United States, reaching an all-time low this year. (Editor and Publisher Magazine)

NEW YORK -- Editors at about one in four newspapers who responded to a survey say they never allow reporters to quote anonymous sources, and most others have policies designed to limit the practice. One editor said his paper's rules are so strict they would have disqualified Deep Throat as a source. (

PALO ALTO, Calif. -- Apple Computer Inc.'s CEO Steve Jobs told Stanford University graduates Sunday that dropping out of college was one of the best decisions he ever made because it forced him to be innovative _ even when it came to finding enough money for dinner…. "Your time is limited so don't let it be wasted living someone else's life," Jobs said to a packed stadium of graduates, alumni and family… Jobs said he lived off 5-cent soda recycling deposits and free food offered by Hare Krishnas while taking classes. (Washington Post)

Investigators of the U.N. oil-for-food program said Tuesday they are "urgently reviewing" new information that suggests U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan may have known more than he revealed about a contract that was awarded to the company that employed his son. (AP)

Electronic drawings that give comprehensive details of how to build and test equipment essential for making nuclear bombs have vanished and could be put up for sale on the international black market, according to UN investigators. (Ian Traynor in Vienna,the Guardian, UK)

In an astonishing outburst, Mr Putin said: “We all know that African countries used to have a tradition of eating their own adversaries.” We don’t have such a tradition or process or culture and I believe the comparison between Africa and Russia is not quite just.” (the Sun Online)

"The world is more likely to run out of uses for oil than Saudi Arabia is going to run out of oil"

June 11, 2005


No compelling reason, that’s what they tell me simply no compelling reason to change, rollover, get involved, buy, sell or do just about anything. Folks it is a matter of time in the market not timing. Most of the time in a one year period you have a 70% chance you will make money and 30% you won’t, but extend that out 5 years and your odds increase for a positive return to 88% and a chance of a loss receded to 12%. Historically over any five year period the average return is 11.06 %, per year but if you missed the best 10 days your return drops to 5.94%.If you miss the best 40 days (2months of trading in a five year period) in a 5 year period your return declines to a negative return of – 4.11% annualized. The point being that waiting for the right time to invest overtime increases your chance of a negative return significantly. From December 1992 to December 2002 if you invested $1000 on the 10 best days over that 10 year period your total return would be 8.89% if you invested $1000 on the 10 worst days your return would be 7.28%. The best day being the day the market hit a year low and the worst day being the day the market hit a year high. Again you have to be in it to win it, worrying about the best fund or the right time to invest makes little or no difference .It is the long term commitment of staying fully invested that counts.

Greenspan speaks and the market yawns. He basically stuck with the “Goldie Locks” scenario, the economy is not too hot, not too cold and FED remains undeterred to continue to slowly raise long term rates. The bond market sees it different and continues to signal the rate raises from the FED are more behind us than in front of us. Maybe instead of oil prices being a curse, they are a blessing. The net effect of higher crude is to put the brakes on the economy just slightly there by keeping long term interest rates down. Low long term interest rates propel the housing and construction industry to robust growth.

First it was wearing women’s underwear on the head, now the US Military is playing Christine Aguilera tunes to torture the prisoners at Gitmo...oh the humanities …Drawn by the music and quality meals Club med is now looking to take over Gitmo and set up a resort, Club Gitmo. By the way I am not sure if Club Gitmo guests will be encouraged to wear women’s underwear on there heads or not. Rumor has it that Senator Ted Kennedy will be offering swimming lessons( sorry couldn’t resist that one). In other news the great Satin’s own Sean Penn is going to Iran to report on the up coming “election” and imparting us his wisdom on one of the most tyrannical Regimes on earth that puts women to death for being raped. And finally am I the only one that is amused by seeing Hilary Clinton speaking about “to much sex on television”, well Senator is depends how you define “sex” don’t you think?


Monday, June 13, 2005

Tips on buying CD's

Recently I have had some clients ask me what’s the difference between buying a CD from a bank or one from a broker? Here are some helpful hints;
Unlike a Certificate of Deposit that is bought directly from a bank; a brokered CD is sold by stock brokers (and others). And unlike a bank-bought CD, a brokered CD is marketable on a secondary market. It is FDIC insured up to $100,000 and it is often marketed as a suitable alternative to Treasury issues.
Because these are marketable securities it is important to go farther than yield; another words don’t just be a yield hog.
1. Remember like other fixed income investments if interest rates go up, the market value of these securities may go down. That is elementary to anyone who has ever been interested in fixed-income investments.
2. Check the rating of the bank. This can be done without cost at either of the following rating agencies (it's best to check both, in case there is a discrepancy):
3. Check the value of a similar issue on the secondary market. Higher rated Bank’s CD’s trade stronger and lower rated banks trade weaker. That means that if you want to sell the CD before its maturity, which you can, CD’s from Banks that have lower ratings often trade below what they were bought at. This could create a loss for the investor.
4. Check the secondary market, as an alternative to new issues, if the secondary-market value is less than par. That may result in a good deal for you. For instance, an issue with a coupon rate of 4.15%, if it sells on the secondary market for 93.5, will yield 4.98%.
5. Remember a broker has hundreds of CD’s to chose from so it is very important for the prospective buyer to as forth coming and truthful about their needs as possible so that the best alternative can be found.
Call me for a CD QUOTE today
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
Horwitz & Associates
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450
1(888)599-1188 or (201)652-3003

Thursday, June 09, 2005

in the news

ATLANTA (AP) - CNN should cover international news and the environment, not the "pervert of the day," network founder Ted Turner said Wednesday as the first 24-hour news network turned 25.

ROME (Reuters) - Italy should consider leaving the single currency and reintroducing the lira, Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni said in a newspaper interview on Friday. Maroni, a member of the euro-skeptical Northern League party, told the Repubblica daily Italy should hold a referendum to decide whether to return to the lira, at least temporarily. He also said European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was one of those chiefly responsible for the "disaster of the euro. "The euro "has proved inadequate in the face of the economic slowdown, the loss of competitiveness and the job crisis," Maroni said.

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Dutch and French voters have now spoken, delivering crushing defeats to the European Union's proposed new constitution. And the fallout will be immense. …And the economics of integration that have dominated Europe for the last 30 years have come to an end. Forget convergence. The big trend in the next few years will be Europe's economies going their own way, not with each other. In time, even the euro's survival might be called into question.

WASHINGTON -- Federal authorities may prosecute sick people who smoke pot on doctors' orders, the Supreme Court ruled Monday, concluding that state medical marijuana laws don't protect users from a federal ban on the drug. (WSJ)

Since June 2004, the Fed has raised its short-term rate target to 3% from 1% and has signaled plans to raise it further, while the 10-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to less than 4% from 4.7%. That sort of decline in long-term rates "is clearly without recent precedent," Mr. Greenspan said via satellite to the International Monetary Conference, a meeting of bankers from around the world, in Beijing. (WSJ)

WASHINGTON -- During last year's presidential campaign, John F. Kerry was the candidate often portrayed as intellectual and complex, while George W. Bush was the populist who mangled his sentences. But newly released records show that Bush and Kerry had a virtually identical grade average at Yale University four decades ago (Boston Globe)

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Executives at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s General Re unit knew four years ago that American International Group Inc. would use a reinsurance transaction to ``cook the books,'' according to phone transcripts cited in a suit from regulators.

Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. said it has nearly doubled its stake in General Motors Corp. to 7.2% but fell well short of its goal of amassing an 8.8% stake, in part because some investors are betting the stock is poised to rise. (WSJ)

"pervert of the day"

June 7,2005
In a blow to the SEC the Supreme Court ruled against the use of medical marijuana for stock holders in order to ease the pain of underperforming portfolios. Stock holders have for some time turned to marijuana to simply to take the edge off. Sighting the inability to discern the negative impact of higher gas prices on SUV sales by management GM shareholders got a special dispensation form the Supremes themselves.

So what does it really mean to have increasing short term interest rates, while long rates continue to decline? What it is not; is a sign that inflation is coming. It suggests in fact the total opposite. I will say it again just to make it clear; declining long term rates signal there is an absence of inflation in the long term. So then what, you say? Perhaps it is suggesting the level of systematic risk is beginning to decline in the long run. That means that the new paradigm of risk assessment factored into the market since 9/11 may be receding. This could lead to higher valuations and better stock market returns.

Back to 1995-1996, looking at the recent trading it is interesting to see that storage technology have been trending up and perhaps semi conductors are about to do the same. This same pattern was in place in late 1995 into the first half of 1996 and was the precursor to the period of “irrational exuberance” at the end of the 1990’s.

A client asked me the other day what all these brokerage houses mean when they say buy quality? When you hear the “Buy quality” mantra from Wall Street firms it is best to run for your life .Their list of quality is often a list of dogs they are trying to rid their own institutional portfolios of. Buy quality as used in the brokerage business is meaningless term. Today’s quality is tomorrows General Motors and the one thing for certain in the stock market is that things always change. New technologies, new industries, demographics and changes in life style mean changes in the way we all do business. “Buy quality” is simply an empty phrase used to separate you from your money.


Monday, June 06, 2005

Terrorism and your Investments Seminar

Terrorism and your Investments Seminar -Outline

On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.

Four main forces at work;

1) George Bush and the Red State Neo Con’s
2) George Soros, the UN, the EU and the one world socialist government crowd
3) Iran, Islamofacist quest for a Global Caliphate
4) China and its quest for resources

Each of these four forces represents a philosophic view of the world and is attempting to remake the world in its own image.

A) Bush and the Neo Cons take the view that the individual is paramount, self determination is optimal and individual freedom and capitalism equal peace and prosperity.

B) George Soros’s failure to win any elections, and near universal rejection of his message, UN in the mist of the Oil-For-Food, the largest financial scandal in history, including the bribing of the UN Security Council and the recent rejection of the EU constitution by its own constituents.

C) Iran is the eye of the storm of the global Islamic fascist jihad. Little or nothing to do with Islam, based on anti Semitism, Nihilism and Dominance of and over western culture, a sense of superiority

D) China’s desperate quest for resources such as gas and oil, the division between the PLA and the Central Communist Party, in and evolving society looking to establish new institutions.

The role of the media; main stream (vs) new media

The Watergate 1970’s template


Increased risk paradigm leads to depressed valuations equal the buying opportunity of a life time.

Thursday, June 02, 2005

this week in the news

If the market duplicates the experience during the Great Depression, the worst 10-year experience so far with a record average annual loss of 0.89 percent, the S&P 500 would have to rise for the balance of the decade by 3.2 percent a year. In only nine of the last 70 10-year rolling time periods has the market returned less than a five percent average annual return. If the market were to duplicate its worst performance since 1970, a gain of 5.86 percent a year between 1970 and 1979, the market index would have to move up from here at a 14 percent annual rate for the rest of the decade. (Milton Ezrati, Senior Economic Strategist for Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC)

Core inflation is still tame, rising at 1.6 percent over the past year, about the same as the second half of last year and actually slower than in 2002. The gold price, at $418, is consistent with less-than 2 percent underlying inflation. So is the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.09 percent and a yield curve that has flattened to just over 100 basis points. (Larry Kudlow)

LONDON (AP) - A cell-phone ring tone appeared set to top the British singles chart Sunday, outselling the new single by the band Coldplay by nearly four to one, a music retailer said.
Coming only three days after French voters rejected the constitution, the Dutch "no" vote was so decisive that the treaty seems to have no future in its current form. (NY SUN)

European Union is poised to shelve its proposed constitution for several years after French voters rejected the treaty in a referendum on Sunday.(Yahoo News)

The chaos in Brussels caused by France’s unexpectedly emphatic rejection of the European constitution has put Mr Blair, who takes up the EU presidency in July, in a powerful position to impose his vision of the future shape of the Union. (TIMES ON LINE)

The under-fire euro fell further on Wednesday, slumping to an eight-month low against the US dollar amid rumblings over the long-term future of the eurozone. The fresh selling was prompted by a report claiming that Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, and Axel Weber, the president of the Bundesbank, were present at a meeting at which the possible break-up of European Monetary Union was discussed. The German Bundestag is also said to have commissioned a report on the legal repercussions of a country wishing to leave the EMU. (FT)

Underneath all this there is a more profound question, which is about the future of Europe and, in particular, the future of the European economy and how we deal with the modern questions of globalization and technological change," Mr. Blair told journalists during a vacation in Italy. Nine European Union members ratified the constitution before the French referendum. But France's no vote is likely to kill the constitution - at least in its current form - because it requires approval by all of the union's member countries. (NYTIMES)

British Laborite and progressive George Galloway calls for a formal uniting of the left in the West with the Islamic jihadists in the war on terror. (By David Horowitz)

Rejection!...and a very deep throat

Terrorism and your Investments Seminar
On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.

June 1, 2005


France and Holland reject the EU constitution to the shock of all the elitist’s who somehow failed to understand one of the most basic rights of man kind; the right of self determination. With the EU treaty dead ,looks like Iraq will have a constitution before the EU. Perhaps it was a plot by Microsoft to thwart an EU anti trust investigation. Or maybe John Kerry wants to run for president of France. The problem as I see it is that no one bothered to ask the citizens of Europe what they want from a constitution.

What’s and investor to think? I am not sure yet but with the Bundersbank all ready planning for the demise of the euro sounds like this thing is deader than a door nail. Maybe Europe will have to go back to worrying about high unemployment, low productivity growth, no job creation, economic stagnation, a looming retirement crisis, declining populations, oil for food scandal over regulation and so on. Oh to pine away for the days of just blaming Bush, America and the “Jews” for everything.

A resounding defeat for the forces of Brussels, and of coarse the American Media continues to miss one of the biggest stories of the year and focus instead on the consumer confidence numbers which have failed to have any predictive value what so ever for many years. The have consistently signaled a decline in consumer spending yet actual spending continues to increase. The reason is simple in a world were large retailers release up to date data minute by minute, there is no longer a need for polls. We can verify the amount of consumer spending almost instantaneously making consumer confidence “push” polls obsolete.

So thirty years later what did Nixon really do? Apparently he was a politician that lied, gee that’s novel. Ok I am not much for wage price freezes or breaking the gold standard or many of the other ill conceived economic policies Nixon pushed on the American economy, taking us a generation to overcome. The real net result of Watergate was to abandon Vietnam creating a human catastrophe in Vietnam and Cambodia .Leading to the Kilmer Rouge killing 30% of the population and imposing tyranny in the region via the domino effect, good job guys.