Saturday, December 31, 2005

When Will the Secular Bear Go into Hibernation?

Market Performance

4th Quarter 2005

12/31/04 12/30/05 Year 2005
Close Close % Change

DJIA 10,783.01 10,717.50 Down 0.60%

S&P 500 1,211.92 1,248.29 Up 3.00%

NASDAQ 2,175.44 2,205.32 Up 1.37%

Russell 2000 651.57 673.22 Up 3.32%

First year in 3 years the Dow has ended in negative territory.
First year ever the Dow ended essentially flat for the year.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

speak no evil email list

If you would like to be on my email list please email me at ,just put "email list" on the subject line thank you

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

In the news :see no evil,hear no evil,say no evil

(Reuters) - The rise in global living standards despite fears of violence is a testament to the value of free markets in the world, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday.

“Anybody who doesn’t appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell”– Iraqi Citizen, voter Betty Dawisha

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraqis voted Thursday in one of the largest and freest elections in the Arab world, with strong turnout reported in Sunni areas and even a shortage of ballots in some precincts.

By repeatedly calling for Israel's destruction and slamming the door on a nuclear compromise, Iran's hardline president has put Tehran on a collision course with the West, diplomats and analysts warned AFP reports.

The German government has called in an Iranian diplomat to protest against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's verbal attacks on Israel, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Wednesday.(Matt Drudge)

Saddam Hussein moved his chemical weapons to Syria six weeks before the war started, Israel's top general during Operation Iraqi Freedom says. (NY SUN)

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices dropped by the most in a more than a half century last month even as new signs of manufacturing strength raised inflation concerns that may keep the Federal Reserve on the path of higher interest rates.

December 15, 2005 -- Legendary investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. plans to gather more than $10 billion from institutional and wealthy investors for a new fund that will be one of the largest buyout funds ever created. (NY POST)

WTO talks remained deadlocked as the EU defended itself against criticism that its refusal to further open its agricultural markets threatened to derail the entire conference. (WSJ)

MEXICO CITY - The Mexican government, angered by a U.S. proposal to extend a wall along the border to keep out migrants, pledged Tuesday to block the plan and organize an international campaign against it. Facing a growing tide of anti-immigrant sentiment north of the border, the Mexican government has taken out ads urging Mexican workers to denounce rights violations in the United States. It also is hiring an American public relations firm to improve its image and counter growing U.S. concerns about immigration. (AP)

According to Gene Colter, writing in last weekend's Wall Street Journal, ISI contacts tree farms, farmers' markets and other tree sellers each week in December to gauge output. Then, by analyzing the amount of pine needles that make it into Americans' SUVs, they can determine the overall health of the economy."The inspiration for this whole process came from a fixed-income investor out in Denver whose family owned a Christmas-tree farm," says Oscar Sloterbeck, head of ISI's company surveys. The tree farmer noticed that when times were good, people bought bigger trees and loaded up on wreaths and garlands.So what is the verdict from ISI? The company says it's going to be a good Christmas - with plenty of comfort and joy. (MONEYNEWS.COM)

This Christmas season, while Santa's Ho Ho Ho is heard everywhere, the only "Ho" heard at Commerce Bank is the "Heave-Ho" given by New Jersey's Commerce Bank to the Marine Corps sponsored Toys for Tots program. After years of support, Commerce Bank decided to pull out of the Toys for Tots program and no longer allows drop-off bins, where customers can drop off new toys, in their branches. As a result of Commerce Banks decision, the Marine Corps sponsored program has lost its largest toy collection network and thousands of needy children will not receive toys this Christmas. (Doc Shellback, Vietnam 1968, US Marine Corps)

Deputy Attorney General Jamie S. Gorelick, the Clinton administration believes the president "has inherent authority to conduct warrantless searches for foreign intelligence purposes."

Jimmy Carter Signed Executive Order on May 23, 1979: "Attorney General is authorized to approve electronic surveillance to acquire foreign intelligence information without a court order." (Matt Drudge)

Systematic effort by hackers to penetrate US government and industry computer networks stems most likely from the Chinese military, the head of a leading security institute said. The attacks have been traced to the Chinese province of Guangdong, and the techniques used make it appear unlikely to come from any other source than the military, said Alan Paller, the director of the SANS Institute, an education and research organization focusing on cybersecurity. (BREITBART.COM)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush said on Monday that he does not live "in a bubble" and that he is well aware of what is going on outside the White House, rejecting critics' claims that he is out of touch with public opinion.

PARIS — French counterterrorism agents — some heavily armed and wearing black hoods — raided homes and Internet cafes on Monday in a sweep against a suspected Islamic network, arresting more than 20 suspects, authorities said. (FOXNEWS)

The Army has exceeded recruiting goals in the first two months of this fiscal year, reversing a trend that had some Iraq critics saying the armed services branch was "broken." The Pentagon yesterday said the Army signed up 5,856 recruits in November, 5 percent above its goal. It previously announced the Army also exceeded its target in October, the first month of the 2006 fiscal year. (Washington Times)

LONDON - Virgin Galactic, the British company created by entrepreneur Richard Branson to send tourists into space, and New Mexico announced an agreement Tuesday for the state to build a $225 million spaceport. Virgin Galactic also revealed that up to 38,000 people from 126 countries have paid a deposit for a seat on one of its manned commercial flights, including a core group of 100 "founders" who have paid the initial $200,000 cost of a flight upfront. Virgin Galactic is planning to begin flights in late 2008 or early 2009. (AP)

Happy,Happy ,is the commuter is technologically obsolete ,,"It's all about putting butts in seats." , Mark Cuban

December 13, 2005

Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Happy Kwanza, Happy New Year to all,
Don’t get swept up in the nuances of FED speak, it is really just a exercise in futility or as Sigmund Freud said,”Sometimes a kiss is just a kiss”. The FED has carefully telegraphed every move since it began raising rates and this process will most likely continue and expand with the new FED chief. The FED told investors they were going to raise rates, they did. The FED told you they were going to keep raising rates, they did. See the pattern? I am confident it will continue don’t get sucked in by the talking heads, the FED will stop when they tell you they are going to. The discontinuance of the incremental rate increases will have a very positive effect on the stock market and clear a way one of the major hurdles to improving equity valuations.

For those of you who wonder why I left the city and now work from a home office, the current New York City Transit strike points out the obvious good news, that the commuter is technologically obsolete. Technology has empowered many professions with the ability to choose weather to commute or not, yes I am sure Christmas Shopping in the city is going to take a hit, but the total loss of productivity may be far less than you might think. This does not bode well for the city fathers. Lets face it next year the New York Stock Exchange will go public, with the intention of going all electronic,. No more specialists no more floor brokers, so then you ask is there a need for New York to be a financial center? Those days may be numbered and like many other parts of life that have become technologically outmoded the commute may become a thing of the past.

Show down with the unions? Am I the only one that notices that the heavily unionized industries are the ones in the US that are simply not making it? GM or American Airlines all share the common thread, that they are heavily unionized. Why can KIA, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Honda all build new profitable auto factories in the USA while GM and Ford are closing them …hummmm Sounds like rethinking the paradigm is long over due? Yea Yea I know all those other people are simply making slaves wages, save it this is not the 1970’s and with 80% of poorest Americans owning two cars and 76% owning air conditioning non unionized factories are hiring more and more workers while the unionized plants continue bask in wage and benefit increases while hiring remains at a stand still or on decline. Interesting during all that bogus talk of out sourcing not a single mention of the union question? Perhaps unions should spend more time nurturing their work force and less time making political contributions or they may just go the way of the Detroit auto plants.

Don’t for get to check my website for frequent updates:

And if you missed a past email:

Merry Christmas ,Happy New Year ,Happy Hanukah, Happy EID,Happy Kwanza and a prosperous New Year


Monday, December 12, 2005

hear no evil,see no evil,say no evil

The bulls are expecting stocks to climb anywhere from 5% to 25% next year, as a steadily growing economy, solid corporate profits, controlled inflation and a likely end to Federal Reserve rate increases make equities attractive. The median forecast is for a 9% gain, which would put the Dow industrials at the doorstep of 12,000 and at an all-time high. Characteristic of the bulls' perspective is Tobias Levkovitch of Citigroup, who says: "Investor sentiment, earning and valuation all are saying that we'll get strong gains in the market." He calls his forecast of a 12% rise in the S&P 500, to 1400, "conservative." (BARRONS)

…Ed Keon of Prudential Equity Group, who early this year turned from lukewarm to extremely positive and now sees the market rocketing higher by 25%, to 1530 on the S&P 500(in 2006). (BARRONS)

U.S productivity grew a revised 4.7% annual rate during the third quarter, faster than the initial estimate of a 4.1% gain, as labor costs fell 1% (WSJ)

December 6, 2005 -- Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest traders of energy contracts on Wall Street, is selling a New Jersey power plant it acquired just two years ago in what some observers peg as a signal the global energy market is reaching a peak. (NY POST)

Unemployment is down to 5%, better than the average for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. The economy has expanded by 4.5 million new jobs since May 2003, including 215,000 in November. Just last week, the third quarter estimate for growth in domestic output was revised upward, to 4.3 %.( NY SUN)

An investment-led US economy in 2006 and beyond, with technology and energy in the forefront, adjusting to a lower dollar and to the need for higher domestic savings, is not only desirable and feasible, but in fact highly probable. In our opinion, longer term, it will also lead to significantly higher equity prices.( Nicocles Leandros Michas, director of economics & investment strategy,Alexandros Partners)

CLUMSY typing cost a Japanese bank at least £128 million and staff their Christmas bonuses yesterday, after a trader mistakenly sold 600,000 more shares than he should have. (TIME on LINE)

The Department of Homeland Security said it is aware of the problem and is working with local enforcement agencies to prevent it. "Roosevelt Avenue is one of the primary areas in New York City to buy false documents, but it is not limited to any borough, or any immigrant community, and it is not new," a spokesman for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Mark Thorn, said. Earlier this week the Queens district attorney's office, working with the New York Police Department's Special Fraud Unit, took a swipe at the market. In one of the largest investigations in recent years, authorities arrested more than a dozen alleged dealers in false documents, including the location where this reporter bought a fake green card last Thursday for $100. It will take more than one sweep, however, to put the brakes on this market. (NY SUN)

Montreal ( - The debate over climate change evolved into a battle of the sexes at a U.N. Climate Change Conference in Montreal on Monday. A feminist environmentalist accused men of being the biggest contributors to human-caused "global warming" and lamented that women are bearing the brunt of the negative climate consequences created by men.

Montreal ( - The Kyoto Protocol on climate change was declared "dead" by several organizations attending the 11th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference this week in Montreal.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Comments by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expressing doubt about the Holocaust and suggesting Israel be moved to Europe are appalling and reprehensible, the U.S. State Department said on Thursday.

A statement from the Guangdong (CHINA)provincial authorities said a commander of the People's Armed Police, a division of the People's Liberation Army, was detained for "wrong actions" that led to the deaths Tuesday of villagers protesting land seizures in a coastal town north of Hong Kong. (NY SUN)

ROME - Italians would have to pay a 20 percent tax on pornography according to a budget amendment that cleared a first legislative hurdle, news reports said Thursday. The proposed tax was approved at committee level and is expected to go before the Chamber of Deputies, Italy's lower parliamentary house, early next week.(AP)

DECEMBER 8--In a blow to New Yorkers who enjoyed having their premium marijuana delivered to their doorsteps, Drug Enforcement Administration agents have busted up a six-year-old pot ring calling itself the Cartoon Network that was busy preparing its festive holiday shipments before federal agents kicked in the door. (The Smoking Gun)

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraqi citizens turned over a high-ranking Al Qaeda member known as "the Butcher" to U.S. forces in Ramadi Friday a military statement said…."He is the highest ranking Al Qaeda in Iraq member to be turned into Iraqi and U.S. officials by local citizens," Capt. Jeffrey S. Pool said in a statement released from Camp Blue Diamond in Ramadi. "His capture is another indication that the local citizens tire of the insurgents' presence within their community." (FOX NEWS)

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Voting begins Monday in hospitals, military camps and even prisons across Iraq, launching the process to choose a new parliament that the United States hopes can help quell the insurgency so U.S. forces can begin heading home.

"We are very prepared for the elections, and we are highly determined," Interior Minister (IRAQ) Bayan Jabr said. "We hope that everyone participates and that it will be a safe day. ... We are at a historic juncture." (AP)

the FAT finger..dont get GOOGLED

December 9, 2005


To GOOGLE or Not, that is the question? I know what your thinking I have been wrong about this stock since day one. Is it me am I the only one that feels he has heard all this before. When I first heard the calls that GOOGLE was a $500 stock I checked my calendar to see if it was 1999 or was it simply a ghost of Christmas past? This email discussion is not about weather GOOGLE is a buy or not it is more a function of what a realistic valuation of a stock is and what realistic investor expectations are. Does the call for a $500 GOOGLE sound similar to past prognostications, like QCOM at $1000 or AMZN at $400? Sure does to me. I realize pay for advertising is big business, and they do offer some premium services but so do most search engines. I have been using GOOGLE for about 8 years and I am not sure they have ever made a dime form me. So the jury is out the stock is up big and the hype is out of control. Remember hype is free so don’t buy it. Is it a sell well I am not sure ,but as the old Wall street adage goes ; you don’t go broke by taking profits. Would I short it? Not me I am not in the habit getting in front of a freight train and as for buying it now? It is no bargain so I would pack a Para shoot if I did. And last of all the time to pray is before you buy it not after. It is important to remember that even if the BULLS on the stock are absolutely right revenue and earnings acceleration won’t move in a straight line for long, often some unexpected event or some unforeseen issue knocks down the growth rate. IT just always happens sometimes sooner than later, but none the less always seems to happen. Change is not a constant, it is more like 2 steps forward 1 step back, than a straight rate of change.

As for the market this year well I think the whole thing has ended up being a whole lot of nothing. It seems enormous earnings and huge increases in productivity were no match for the FED’s incremental interest rate increases and continuing higher oil prices. This leads to the old Wall Street adage, “don’t fight the FED” and that leads to a second Wall Street adage,”the gas tank is always half empty”. Ok that’s not really a Wall Street adage but it does seem that higher fuel prices have kept a lid on higher equity valuations. I look at next year and see a topping of interest rates sometime by mid year and a flatting out of energy prices staying high but slowing down in the velocity of change and not going higher as quickly.


Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Gold Prices go higher try inflation indexed FDIC insured CD's

LaSalle has 2 issues. One is due in 2007 and
One is due in 2010.

The one in 2007 is CPI + .85% (first coupon 5.20%)
Monthly floater.

The one in 2010 is CPI + 1.40% (first coupon 5.75%)
Monthly floater.

(LaSalle Bank in Florida)

email me for details