Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Happy Year of Dog, good bye Alan

Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief Saturday warned the United States and Britain that Iran would respond with its missiles if attacked, a clear threat to Israel, which lies within easy range of such a launch. "The world knows Iran has a ballistic missile power with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,300 miles)," Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi said on state-run television. (The Jerusalem Post)

RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) - Firing into the air, Fatah gunmen and police stormed Palestinian parliament buildings on Saturday in growing unrest after their long-dominant party's crushing election defeat by Hamas Islamists. The man who served as the no. 2 official in Saddam Hussein's air force says Iraq moved weapons of mass destruction into Syria before the war by loading the weapons into civilian aircraft in which the passenger seats were removed. (NY SUN)

China's communist leadership has made tackling poverty in the countryside a key priority, as it acknowledges that three decades of economic and social reforms have left great swaths of the population behind. Clashes between officials and villagers, angry over forced land seizures and inadequate compensation for farmland and redundancies, have been increasing. The government said there were 87,000 cases of public disorder last year, an increase of 6.6 percent from 2004. (FOX)

'The resumption of nuclear research by Iran is currently the market's largest preoccupation,' said BNP Paribas oil analyst Eoin O'Callaghan. He has pushed up his forecast for average oil prices this year to $65 a barrel because of geopolitical risk. He points out that the oil price rose more than 60 per cent in the run-up to the Iraq war; a similar increase now would take prices to $94. (Heather Stewart, economics correspondent, the Guardian)

only 10 years left better fund your IRA

January 30,2006


It has been said that Ben Bernanke is a worlds foremost inflation target-er with no inflation to target. The year of the DOG greets the new FED chairman as Iran prepares for a show down with the west and the Palestinian terror-torries dissolve into chaos. The “surprise” selection of Hamas by the Palestinian electorate caught many by surprise? No surprise here that the Fatah party lost, it is corrupt even by New Jersey standards and Hamas was favored going into the election. Why it would be a “surprise” that terrorist would vote for terrorist’s or perhaps better terrorist? As for the peace process..huh..what peace process is that? The only thing I know for sure is that the Palestinian people are going to get the shaft no matter what happens, while their rulers continue to be absorbed in blind hatred and graft.

In the past crisis has marred when the FED has handed off leadership from one FED chair to another .The current turn over of FED chiefs seems no different. The end of the world is here, once again. Former president Clinton told an audience in Davos Switzerland and I paraphrase, “Global Warming is the greatest threat to confront humanity”, apparently he hasn’t seen the videos of the planes hitting the world trade center and never listened to disco in the seventies.

Better fund those IRA’s ; according to “global warming enthusiasts” we only have 10 years left to live on the planet. I remember in the 1970’s how we only had 10 years left to live and trust me with that awful disco music we all would have been thankful! But somehow we all survived and here we are right back at deaths door once again. Most importantly is how much money you could have put away to your future by dollar cost averaging. The DOW JONES was hitting a whopping 1011 in 1975 and with all the ups and downs, crashes, exuberances, contagions recessions, inflation, deflation, greed, disco, corruption, terrorism, graft, fraud ,collapse of social security, budget deficits ,trade deficits and crack cocaine, the market finally has touched 11,000 in early 2006 a tenfold increase in 30 plus years. Yea I know according to Al Gore we will all be dead in 10 but that is a still a 3 fold increase and just incase Al is wrong and we have to persevere till the next global ice age the money could come in handy I suspect.

Sunday, January 29, 2006

My name is Artur I own a Mansion and a Yacht

I often say it is good to start them young. Good savings habits are learned like everything else at an early age. Remember as you get your TAX information it may be time to look at setting up a ROTH or Traditional IRA or contribute to one you all ready have. Don’t forget this is a good time to consolidate old IRA’s or Rollover old 401k or 403b plans it is easy and I can get you up in running with little hassle in as little as 15 minutes. And finally perhaps a Uniform Gift to Minors is the way to go for college savings they are much simpler than you think to set up. So contact me with any questions ,I am here to help.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

the new this week

TOKYO - Hideaki Noguchi, vice president of a brokerage house linked with corporate takeover deals by Internet and financial service provider Livedoor Co, died Wednesday evening in an apparent suicide in Naha, Okinawa Prefecture, prosecutors and Naha police said Thursday. (Japan today)

Music industry sources tell DRUDGE REPORT that Europe’s Recording Industry Association the IFPI will show sales of music via the internet and mobile phones generated sales of $1.1 billion for record companies – up from US $380 million in 2004.(Matt Drudge)

BREST, France (Reuters) - France said on Thursday it would be ready to use nuclear weapons against any state that carried out a terrorist attack against it, reaffirming the need for its nuclear deterrent.

British researchers say they have found no evidence to support fears that mobile phones cause brain cancer.(Matt Drudge)

“Here's a thought. If you want to measure how much porn is showing up in searches, try searching for it yourself rather than issuing privacy alarm sounding subpoenas. It would certainly be more accurate.” (Danny Sullivan at Search Engine Watch)

China and Saudi Arabia are expected to sign a broad energy cooperation pact as Beijing aims to secure more energy resources.(WSJ)

JERUSALEM (AP) - Israel's defense minister hinted Saturday that the Jewish state is preparing for military action to stop Iran's nuclear program, but said international diplomacy must be the first course of action.

Iran on Sunday said Israel would be making a "fatal mistake" should it resort to military action against Tehran's nuclear program and dismissed veiled threats from the Jewish state as a "childish game." (AP)

President Ahmadinejad said Friday Palestine is the center of the final stages of the battle between Islam and arrogance, saying the Palestinian Intifada is progressing. (Islamic Republic News Agency)

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Canadian political leaders on Sunday made one last cross-country dash on the eve of an election expected to oust the ruling Liberals, move Canada to the right and improve ties with the United States.

Iran’s top nuclear official on Sunday warned Tehran would resume efforts to enrich uranium on an industrial scale if its case was reported to the UN Security Council, further raising the stakes in the crisis over its nuclear programme. (FT)

Online search engine leader Google Inc. has agreed to censor its results in China, adhering to the country's free-speech restrictions in return for better access in the Internet's fastest growing market. (AP MICHAEL LIEDTKE)

A belated Christmas message form Osama bin Laden ,he is no share holder in Livedoor

January 19, 2006


A belated Christmas message form Osama bin Laden and the issue of the day returns to the forefront. Ok ok so Iran is making Nuclear weapons, next you’re going to tell me smoking gives you cancer, coal mining is dangerous or social security is going broke. Apparently everyone except for the Iranians who are currently very busy transferring all their money out of European central banks didn’t really believe Iran didn’t have the west’s best interest at heart. In his annual Christmas message, be it a bit late, well mail delivery from the cave is a bit slow this time of the year. Osama Bin Laden threatened attacks on US ,snore what else is new .However he also asked for a truce ,while many politicians and media pundits lined up to surrender ,the Bush administration say “NO”.

Iran not to be out done responded in kind by disregarding western efforts to limit nuclear development. Taking the European efforts to talk Iran out of developing a nuclear program, the Persian government has come to the same conclusion that many Americans have that the Europeans are simply wimps. Among the rhetoric, both sides have taken steps to prepare for war, including French President Jack Chirac mentioning his nations ability to use its nuclear umbrella for something more than a make work project. The market seemed very unsettled by the idea of a Frenchmen sipping wine playing with nuclear weapons and caused a sell off on Friday.

Welcome back volatility, yes the down side is harsh but the resurrection of volatility is a signal the market is going to break out of its morbid trading range that has consumed so much of the last 3 years. The total lack of volatility has been one of the hall marks of this Bear market that has ensued since the melt down of the bubble market in 2000. Dare I say, time to go back to buying on the dips, ok I know to some that strategy that worked so well in the late 1990’s, but has been an abject failure of late puts fear in the heart of men and women. A strong broad based rally the next week or so would give me cause to celebrate and confirm my theory that renewed volatility is a sign of stronger market possibilities.

It the end of the world was coming and the demise of mankind ,gold would have went to the moon on Friday ,but alas I hate to disappoint Gold stocks and the GLD (gold index) were down slightly. Signaling at lest to me that Friday was a one off event and more a reaction to a combination of short term events, like issues in Japan, Nigeria, Iran and France.

TSE halts trading in Japan? Well separate the hype form the reality rumor has that the TSE’s trading system is very antiquated and cant handle the volume form all the new day traders that have sprung up in Japan since the market started to rally last year .Remember the Japanese stock market has been on the downside dog house since 1989,. This is an exchange that closes so traders can take an 1 ½ hour lunch and it is an exchange that closes at 3pm. don’t commit Hare Kari just yet, with the Japanese market you should have done that a long time ago looks more like a Buying opportunity.

James Foytlin

Monday, January 23, 2006

welcome back volatility

Welcome back volatility, yes the down side is harsh but the resurrection of volatility is a signal the market is going to break out of its morbid trading range that has consumed so much of the last 3 years. The total lack of volatility has been one of the hall marks of the Bear market that has ensued since the melt down of the bubble market in 2000. Dare I say, time to go back to buying on the dips? A strong broad based rally the next week or so would give me cause to celebrate and confirm my theory that renewed volatility is a sign of stronger market possibilities

Friday, January 20, 2006

dont tell me this "war on terror" thing is for real

A belated Christmas message form Osama bin Laden and the issue of the day returns to the forefront. Ok ok so Iran is making Nuclear weapons, next you’re going to tell me smoking gives you cancer or social security is going broke. Apparently everyone except for the Iranians who are currently very busy transferring all their money out of European central banks didn’t really believe Iran didn’t have the west’s best interest at heart. To quote Sister Mary Elephant, “WAKE UP!”

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Japan halts Trading due to sell off?

TSE halts trading in Japan? Well separate the hype form the reality rumor has that the TSE’s trading system is very antiquated and cant handle the volume form all the new day traders that have sprung up in Japan since the market started to rally last year .Remember the Japanese stock market has been on the downside dog house since 1989,. This is an exchange that closes so traders can take an 1 ½ hour lunch .and it is an exchange that closes at 3pm. don’t panic looks more like a Buying opportunity.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Sponsoring a call for Mail Art

Good Morning,

James J Foytlin

Independent Financial Representative

A student of the Elliott wave and huge fan of Wave theory

The Elliott Wave Theory was the work of R.N. Elliott, who observed more than a half-century ago that stock market movements unfold in a series of rhythmic patterns which are based on a natural progression of shifts in mass investor psychology. As market participants vacillate between greed and fear, price patterns develop. These price patterns are called “waves”.

Looking for any size post cards of original art work with the theme: The Next Wave

Send them to: James J Foytlin

54 Washington Place

Ridgewood NJ 07450

All post cards are due by April 15th 2006, none will be returned .All participants will be documented and displayed in a Virtual Gallery to be established for this project.


Sunday, January 15, 2006

see no evil

LOS ANGELES -- Comets have long lit up the sky and the imaginations of scientists. Now these icy bodies from the beginnings of the solar system are finally ready for their close-up. Six months after NASA scientists first peeked inside one comet from afar, they're bringing pieces of another to Earth for study under the microscope. This weekend, the Stardust spacecraft will jettison a 100-pound capsule holding comet dust. It will nosedive through the Earth's atmosphere and -- if all goes well -- make a soft landing in the Utah desert. (NBC NEWS)

AL-QAEDA is recruiting suicide bombers who are infected with the AIDS virus, according to documents revealed to the Sunday Mirror. (Rupert Hamer Defence Correspondent Sunday Mirror)

People who illegally share music files online are also big spenders on legal music downloads, research suggests. Digital music research firm The Leading Question found that they spent four and a half times more on paid-for music downloads than average fans. (BBC)

If anyone has any doubt about the kind of nuclear work Iran has been doing for the past 18 years, it must be a case of naivete compounded by gullibility. Nor should there be any uncertainty about what Iran's mullahocracy would do with a nuclear weapon. All of Iran's leaders since the Ayatollah Rohollah Khomeini replaced the shah in February 1979 have made it clear the objective is Israel's destruction. (washington times)

DOGUBAYAZIT, Turkey (Reuters) - There are no signs that the bird flu virus spreading in Turkey is being passed among humans, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday.

SHANGHAI — American homeowners wondering what follows a housing bubble can look to China's largest city.Once one of the hottest markets in the world, sales of homes have virtually halted in some areas of Shanghai, prompting developers to slash prices and real estate brokerages to shutter thousands of offices. ( LATIMES By Don Lee, Times Staff Writer)

Modern cats have their roots in Asia 11 million years ago, according to a DNA study of wild and domestic cats. The ancient ancestors of the 37 species alive today migrated across the globe, eventually settling in all continents except Antarctica, say scientists.(BBC)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Google Inc is to allow users of its site to buy videos from content partners in an upgrade to its video-search service, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Free drinks may improve the health and lives of homeless alcoholics and reduce their run-ins with police, according to a study published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.

Iran closed a daily newspaper and a magazine, one of the publications said Tuesday, in a stiffening crackdown on the press. Iran's hard-line judiciary has closed down more than 100 pro-democracy publications in the past five years on vague charges of insulting religious sensibilities or top clerics. Since the election of ultraconservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the government has given the judiciary a free hand to prosecute its crackdown against the media, which began in 2000. (AP)

The former Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein trained thousands of radical Islamic terrorists from the region at camps in Iraq over the four years immediately preceding the U.S. invasion, according to documents and photographs recovered by the U.S. military in postwar Iraq. (the weekly standard)

The Florida Supreme Court yesterday declared unconstitutional a school voucher program central to Governor Bush's education reform effort, leaving tens of thousands of children with fewer options to escape failing schools. (NY SUN)

WASHINGTON -- US Representative Patrick J. Kennedy, who has collected more donations from tribal clients of once-powerful lobbyist Jack Abramoff than any other Democrat, intends to keep the money, joining a number of Democrats who have decided that Abramoff's plea bargain on conspiracy and fraud charges won't alter their decision.(BOSTON GLOBE)

BEIJING (AP) -- Chinese state-controlled oil company CNOOC Ltd. said Monday it is paying $2.3 billion for a 45 percent stake in a Nigerian oil field in its first major investment since its failed bid to take over Unocal Corp. last year

Space tourists must be screened to ensure they are not terrorists, according to proposed regulations from the US Federal Aviation Administration. (BBC)

In a seven day stretch between Christmas and new year millions of consumers armed with new MP3 players (primarily IPODS) and stacks of gift cards gobbled up almost 20 million tracks from ITUNES and other down load retailers, Neilson Sound Scan reports( ABSCBN)

The SEC is poised to propose the most sweeping revamp of executive-pay disclosure rules in 14 years, seeking to push companies to reveal much more about perquisites, retirement benefits and total compensation. (WSJ)

Iran on Tuesday precipitated a fresh crisis over its nuclear programme by removing UN seals at a facility in the town of Natanz and announcing that it would begin research involving nuclear enrichment – which can produce weapons grade material. The move prompted immediate criticism from the US and Iran’s European negotiating partners, placing the country on a collision course with the west after more than two years of fruitless talks between Tehran and the EU. (FT)

Agence France Presse, WASHINGTON - Iran has secretly built thousands of centrifuge machines for its atomic plant at Natanz, an exiled opposition figure alleged Tuesday.

British man kidnapped in Iraq and held for five days by armed men who threatened to behead him was rescued last week by American special forces and astonished to discover that no one had noticed he was missing. Phil Sands, 28, a freelance journalist, was held by gunmen who ambushed his car in Baghdad. He said the worst aspect of his ordeal was imagining the anguish of his family. But his parents were holidaying in Morocco and knew nothing of his sufferings until he called them after he was released during a chance raid by US forces on a farm outside Baghdad. (David Smith, UK Guardian)

The government also reported a surplus for December. The deficit over the past twelve months is $320 billion, which amounts to 2.5% of GDP. (YAHOO FINANCE)

as the market goes in January so goes the entire year

January 14,2006


As they say as the market goes in January so goes the entire year ,some would even contend that the entire year reflects the first five days as they did last year, well lets hope so for if that is the case happy days are hear a again! I know I have been saying this market can only go up from here for the last couple of years and yes I was WRONG ,ok I admit it the head wind of incremental rate raises and insecurity over war ,coupled with higher oil prices has simply overwhelmed the market . No matter how big the productivity increases ,how enorumous the corporate profits ,how many stock buy backs ,how many mergers and acquisitions or how many companies were pulled off the boards by going private the market continues not to budge . Well folks the day of recogning may be upon us. It seems long over due that equity valuations would begin to equalise. It has been five long years since 2000 and the NASDQ towered around 5100 ,today it still only stand at 2317 and still needs to more than double just to break even with 2000. Notice in the below table of Gross Domestic Product (the sum total of all goods and services produced In the USA per year) .The GDP in 2000 was $9.8 trillion dollars and the DOW Jones was aproxomatly 12000 and NASDQ was 5100 by 2004 the GDP had grown to $11.7 trillion dollars a little over a 20% increase in 4 years and the Dow Jones today stands a little under 11,000 and the NASDQ abit over 2300 ,folks I will say it again equity valuations will catch up to GDP growth eventualy . Looking at the below table you will notice that the GDP tripled in the 18 year period from 1982 -2000 and the DOW Jones moved from 776 to 12,000 in the same period .For those of you who say well you have said that before and you were WRONG remember even a broken clock is right twice a day.

GDP DATA 1982-2004 (in trillions) Bureau of Economic Analysis

1982 $3,255.0
1983 3,536.7
1984 3,933.2
1985 4,220.3
1986 4,462.8
1987 4,739.5
1988 5,103.8
1989 5,484.4
1990 5,803.1
1991 5,995.9
1992 6,337.7
1993 6,657.4
1994 7,072.2
1995 7,397.7
1996 7,816.9
1997 8,304.3
1998 8,747.0
1999 9,268.4
2000 9,817.0
2001 10,128.0
2002 10,469.6
2003 10,971.2
2004 11,734.3

Don’t for get to look for regular update onmy blog and website



Saturday, January 07, 2006

Believe me I have ALWAYS been a GM hater...but

Believe me I have ALWAYS been a GM hater .. Despite all the doom and gloom don’t write GM off so fast ,sales are up over 35.2% in China one of the worlds fastest growing car markets , General Motors Corp. may have unseated Volkswagen as the top foreign seller in China in 2005, outpacing its European rival and giving it an 11.2% market share. GM will benefit from an unprecedented number of new and upgraded product introductions as well as a growing portfolio of brands On the home front Chevrolet was the best-selling brand in the U.S. market in 2005, outpacing Ford for the first time in 19 years. OnStar, the wholly-owned subsidiary of General Motors grew to nearly four million subscribers in 2005, a thirty percent increase over 2004. And surveys show over seventy-five percent of current subscribers would want the service in their next vehicle and nearly ninety percent would recommend it to others, GM has been restructured its product development process, hoping to make it as fast and efficient. One measure of success is the speed with which it is moving new product to market. Through the early 1990s, it took the automaker five years,to get product to market Now the newest vehicles, average around the 20-month’s range, and some products only 16 months. And finally it is really all about the Cars lets face it ,Lots of new and interesting products are now rolling out of GM for the first time in years. The all-new 2007 Pontiac Solstice GXP roadster will arrive in dealerships in the Fall o powered by a turbocharged variant of the 2.0L ECOTEC. The engine also utilizes direct-injection for an impressive 260 hp. The Buick Lucerne is off to a good start, generating buzz on network television and earning “Best New Car” in the $30,000 to $45,000 category from Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine. And The Chevy HHR , and the all new Corvette Z06 also look very impressive. Perhaps Making General Motors and there cars the buying opportunity of the decade .I did a lot of tweaking, some of the facts came from the usually suspects of financial sites, a GM blog and some other auto sites, it took a lot of research to find some positives which made me very suspicious and in turn turned me more positive on GM. The Chinese market share and the love of Buicks by the Chinese people got me thinking. What kind of company GM will be in the future, I am not sure a lot of questions need to be answered. The trick now is to figure weather GM will use bankruptcy to make the hard decisions or not. This obviously makes quite a difference for investors. Always remember Investments involve risk, potential loss of principal, volatility, no guarantees.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

speak no,see no ,hear no evil

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei share average rose to fresh five-year highs on Monday as retail stocks advanced on bright prospects for the industry after Seven & I Holdings Co. Ltd. said it planned to buy a department store group.

NEW YORK, Dec. 23 (UPI) -- Up to about a third of the $590 million U.N. fund spent for the Indian Ocean tsunami relief may have gone to pay for overhead.

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rise in the last week of the year, capping its biggest annual gain against the euro since the currency was introduced in 1999, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Amazon.com Inc., the world's biggest online retailer, said holiday sales worldwide set a record this year on demand for Apple Computer Inc.'s iPod music players, video games and jewelry.

Holiday spending rose 8.7% from last year, according to one early projection. The strongest gains came in home furnishings. Sales of consumer electronics were also strong, fueled by purchases of flat-panel TVs and digital cameras.(WSJ)

Japan's core consumer prices rose in November for only the second time in seven years, in a possible turning point for the economy. (WSJ)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Texas golf course, a Nevada tanning salon and an Illinois candy shop were among small businesses that may have improperly received U.S. subsidized loans intended for firms hurt by the September 11 attacks, an internal government watchdog has found.

Home sale fell 1.7% in November, while the inventory of homes for sale rose to a 19-year high as prices continued to climb. Initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 last week (WSJ)

MAR DEL PLATA, Argentina — Six Latin American governments had hoped to start 2006 with a free trade zone that would open the U.S. market to their fledgling industries….Proponents of the Central America Free Trade Agreement — CAFTA — fear the delay will mean painful business and trade losses in a region of widespread poverty. (FOX)

The United States government reportedly began coordinating with NATO its plans for a possible military attack against Iran. The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel collected various reports from the German media indicating that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are examining the prospects of such a strike. (Jerusalem Post)

“They have the plutonium,” he said. “We have to assume the North Koreans can and have made a few nuclear devices.” (Siegfried Hecker, former director of the US government’s top secret Los Alamos laboratory, TIMEONLINE)

it's that flat yield curve again...as January goes so goes the market.

January 3, 2006
The economy is growing, unemployment is low and inflation is tame so what else could some want for Christmas? Well how about the end of this secular BEAR MARKET. This decade has so far produced sub par returns and with the FED continuing to raise rates equities it looks like will continue to swim up stream and investors may continue to spit in the wind. The positive is that it appears that the rate increases by the FED may be nearing and end. What’s going to stop the FED you ask? Well the slow down in spending in the first half of 2006 due to the usually hang over from the holidays, and consumer exhaustion with disaster contributions as well as a slow down in rebuilding in the Gulf.

Well 2005 was one of those years, a year of creeping incremental disasters. It was hard for someone to not be affected by a hurricane, tsunami, and earth quake, transit strike or donation fatugue. It was filled with a lot of almost’s ,and as one of clients put it “a whole lot of nothing” .Lots of work and lots of promise but little gain from all the effort and for many it took a lot of effort just to stay even. So what did we learn form 2005 well hear is my very short list :

1) Dick Cheney is a big Johnny Cash fan.
2) Only Detroit doesn’t know that if you have a war in the Middle East gas prices go higher.
3) If you need an engineer don’t hire one that worked on the levies in New Orleans.
4) Airlines are always in bankruptcy.

So what about all the talk about a flat yield curve? Interest rates are based on risk and duration (time) .A flat yield curve is when short term rates say a 2 year bond, are the same as long term rates like 10 year bond. When the curve inverts the shorter rates are higher than the longer rates. This implies that there is more risk; say the risk of recession in the short term than the long term growth prospects for the economy. An inverted yield curve does signal a recession but the duration of the inversion is what is important. Lets face it the yield curve has been pretty flat for some time. No surprise, the FED has been raising rate for some time. So what does it mean? Right now It means a short term first Quarter economic slow down will lead to the FED curtailing the policy of rate raises and the stock market should take off signaling a return to stronger growth in the future.

My test will be simple, as they say, “as January goes so goes the market” so if January is up the market will be up and if not we will be in for another sub par year in 2006.