Friday, March 31, 2006

Bank CD Rates Moving Higher

CD rates have been moving up nicely over the past
few weeks. Here are some rates:

3 month 4.45%
6 month 4.70% to 4.90%
1 year 4.90% to 5.05%

call me or email me today 1(888)599-1188 to discuss you needs, I can get these for you ....



Thursday, March 30, 2006

Perhaps the FED has over shot.....

March 29,2006
There they go again; the FED raises rates for the 15th time in the last 2 years. Many pendants were surprised by the fact that the new FED chair continued the policy of the old with little or no change .I ask simply why? Why are you surprised? The new boss is the same as the old boss? Has something changed the last few months? I guess it was just a slow news day yesterday. Anyway there is still continued talk that the FED maybe finished .In the past the FED always seems to go a bit too far in either direction. In past when we neared the end of a FED tightening the market started to make its move in advance.

Prospects continue to point to a stock market that is much undervalued. The next big move appears to be just an accident waiting to happen. A student of the market will notice many similarities to the early 1980’s before the last big 20 year bull market started. FED tightening reversed, mergers, acquisitions and buy outs abounded. Commodities prices had rallied for quite some time .Overseas markets had out performed US markets. The preceding couple of years had produced uninspiring equity returns and had left mountains of cash on the sidelines. Real-estate had significantly out performed equity investments. If you add the enormous productivity growth rates we have experienced the last couple of years we have recipe for equities to move to much higher levels. Mind you higher valuations usually involve higher levels of volatility so the short term risk levels will increase along with better opportunities to make money.

With over 500,000 people protesting new proposed Immigration rule changes as contrast to the prior weeks meager turn out for antiwar rallies proved there is clearly one job American workers wont do and that is join antiwar protests. The immigration protest also made it clear that it is not the1960’s and seems no one is interested in peace and love, just jobs and money.

It’s that time of the year again, set up, make or consolidate your IRA today.IRA Contribution LimitsYEAR AGE 49 & BELOW AGE 50 & ABOVE2002-2004 $3,000 $3,5002005 $4,000 $4,5002006-2007 $4,000 $5,0002008 $5,000 $6,000After 2008, the contribution limit will raise in increments of $500 depending upon the level of inflation.Call me today for the easy IRA Kit 1(888)599-1188If you are single and your modified adjusted gross income is below $50,000, you can sock away $4,000 in a traditional IRA. If you happen to be 50 or older, you may add $500 under the catch-up provision. In order to receive the full deduction, your modified adjusted gross income must be below $70,000, if you are married and filing jointly. If you earned more than these amounts, you may still be able to contribute and receive a partial deduction, but you should consult with your accountant.The income limits for ROTH IRA's are much higher, $95,000 or less for single taxpayers and $150,000 or less for married people filing jointly. The great thing about the Roth IRA is that growth is tax free! You must leave the money in past age 59½; however, you do not have to take withdrawals and are not forced to do so at age 70½.

Remember IRA contributions are a use it or lose situation. If you don’t contribute this year you cant get it back next year.


in the news this week

BERLIN (AP) -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran on Thursday the "international community is united" in the dispute over its nuclear program, but a Tehran envoy defiantly rejected a U.N. call to reimpose a freeze on uranium enrichment.

Tehran - Thousands of Iranian troops will on Friday start a week-long military manoeuvre in the Gulf to ready armed forces for warding off "threats", a senior commander announced on state television. (afp)

Persian Gulf markets are suffering a correction after years of gains, raising concerns about the effect on other emerging markets. (WSJ)

"If they are competent to fight this war, then I ought to be singing on American Idol." (VP Dick Cheney)

A reporter for the Weekly Standard, Steven Hayes, yesterday said he thought the memorandum of the 1995 meeting demolishes the view of some terrorism experts that bin Laden and Saddam were incapable of cooperating for ideological and doctrinal reasons. "Clearly from this document bin Laden was willing to work with Saddam to achieve his ends, and clearly from this document Saddam did not immediately reject the idea of working with bin Laden," Mr. Hayes said. "It is possible that documents will emerge later that suggest skepticism on the part of Iraqis to working with bin Laden, but this makes clear that there was a relationship." (NY SUN)

( - Major mutual fund companies are "prime enablers" of the explosive growth in compensation for corporate executives, according to a union-sponsored study released on Tuesday. However, a representative from a pro-business organization called it "ironic" that the report also indicates most shareholders approve of the jobs their CEOs do and the pay they receive.

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold raced to a new 25-year peak on Thursday and silver spiked to its highest in more than 22 years as fund managers pumped more money into commodities before the end of the quarter.

"If the economy is as strong as the Fed is worried about, that's going to mean better corporate earnings," said John Augustine, chief investment strategist at Fifth Third Asset Management. "The driver is rotating from front-end consumer to back-end business spending. And business spending is being driven by the need to continually improve productivity, which brings in tech spending." NEW YORK (Reuters)

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei rose 0.63 percent to close above 17,000 for the first time in more than 5-½ years on Thursday as bank shares gained on profit prospects and technology stocks rose following a rally in U.S. stocks.

For English-speaking America, the mass protests in Los Angeles and other U.S. cities over the past few days have been surprising for their size and seeming spontaneity. But they were organized, promoted or publicized for weeks by Spanish-language radio hosts and TV anchors as a demonstration of Hispanic pride and power.(AP)

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, in a scathing letter to the editor of the Boston Herald, accused the newspaper's staff of watching "too many episodes of the Sopranos" for interpreting a hand gesture he made at a cathedral as obscene. (AP)

According to sources on Capitol Hill, U.S. Representative Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) punched a Capitol police officer on Wednesday afternoon after he mistakenly pursued her for failing to pass through a metal detector. (News 11 Atlanta)

Monday, March 27, 2006

Mail Art Call- pushed back to May

Good Morning,

James J Foytlin

Independent Financial Representative

A student of the Elliott wave and huge fan of Wave theory

The Elliott Wave Theory was the work of R.N. Elliott, who observed more than a half-century ago that stock market movements unfold in a series of rhythmic patterns which are based on a natural progression of shifts in mass investor psychology. As market participants vacillate between greed and fear, price patterns develop. These price patterns are called “waves”.

Looking for any size post cards of original art work with the theme: The Next Wave

Send them to: James J Foytlin

54 Washington Place

Ridgewood NJ 07450

All post cards are due by MAY 15th 2006, none will be returned .All participants will be documented and displayed in a Virtual Gallery to be established for this project.

Thursday, March 23, 2006

this week in the news

March 23, 2006 -- Apple's Steve Jobs is threatening to halt the successful iTunes music service in France rather than give in to lawmakers there who want Apple to share its technology with other tech companies, The Post has learned. (NY POST)

Wholesale prices dropped 1.4% in February as gasoline prices tumbled, but costs excluding volatile energy and food prices advanced 0.3%. (WSJ)

LINCOLN, Neb. -- The state of Nebraska pulled the plug on March Madness for its workers this year, worried that streaming video of the game could crash the state's computer system. This year, fans can stream free, live feeds of the NCAA basketball tournament, but state employees are banned from doing that at work.'s live video comes complete with a "boss button" in case someone peeks over a worker's shoulder. (KETV.COM)

''It's very disappointing, especially in Washington, D.C.,'' she said. ''You think this is the place where people come to make things happen. I'm just not sure why there aren't more people here today.'' (Anti war protester)

A paper recently co-authored by the academic dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government about the allegedly far-reaching influence of an "Israel lobby" is winning praise from white supremacist David Duke. (NY SUN)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. college graduates are facing the best job market since 2001, with business, computer, engineering, education and health care grads in highest demand, a report by an employment consulting firm showed on Monday.

WASHINGTON — The House of Representatives is on track this year to be in session for fewer days than the Congress Harry Truman labeled as “do-nothing” during his 1948 re-election campaign. (USA TODAY)

The sedate, urbane world of public broadcasting was rattled Thursday as prosecutors charged three former employees of Michigan Public Media with illegally accepting golf club memberships, Persian rugs, airline tickets and massages in exchange for on-air considerations at the state's top public radio station. (Detroit Free Press)

The rapid recent growth of Hispanic-owned businesses in New York is outpacing the rest of the country, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics released today. (NY SUN)

Belarus, then, is now the stage for a contest between two contrasting cultures. To the east: state control over the political, legal, and economic system, with the public sphere dominated by Slavophile nationalism and nostalgia for the Soviet era. To the west: an open society, with democracy, the rule of law, and free market capitalism. It is a contest from which only one side can emerge the victor, a duel to the death - perhaps literally.(NY SUN)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tuesday that he approves of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials on Iraq, but warned that the United States must not try to "bully" Iran.

on March Madness or "state-sponsored piracy."

March 21, 2006


It’s that time of the year again, set up, make or consolidate your IRA today

IRA Contribution Limits
2002-2004 $3,000 $3,500
2005 $4,000 $4,500
2006-2007 $4,000 $5,000
2008 $5,000 $6,000

After 2008, the contribution limit will raise in increments of $500 depending upon the level of inflation.

Call me today for the easy IRA Kit 1(888)599-1188

If you are single and your modified adjusted gross income is below $50,000, you can sock away $4,000 in a traditional IRA. If you happen to be 50 or older, you may add $500 under the catch-up provision. In order to receive the full deduction, your modified adjusted gross income must be below $70,000, if you are married and filing jointly. If you earned more than these amounts, you may still be able to contribute and receive a partial deduction, but you should consult with your accountant.

The income limits for ROTH IRA's are much higher, $95,000 or less for single taxpayers and $150,000 or less for married people filing jointly. The great thing about the Roth IRA is that growth is tax free! You must leave the money in past age 59½; however, you do not have to take withdrawals and are not forced to do so at age 70½.

March madness is more than just college basket ball or preparing your taxes, the stock market itself seems to be experiencing a bout of the same. The very strange action in the market the last couple of days has got me thinking if the economy rebounds from the post holiday blues it may give cause for the FED to keep raising rates, but if the economy slows down to much it may be signaling a recession, but if prices keep going up it may signal inflation but if prices go down if may signal a slow down in corporate profits. Stay with me it gets better, how about the fact that many economists feel we are nearing full employment and that means wage increases for workers but increase wages lead to inflation hummmm kinda makes you scratch your head. The ups and downs seem to alternate as to weather the market feels the FED is finished or there is still more interest rate increases on the horizon.

So you thought the ports deal was a big deal ,now the French government is attempting to confiscate Apple IPOD technology, forcing Apple to give away its control of its down loadable music sales. Folks lets face it commercial applications of down loadable music was an accident waiting to happen, obvious to anyone except the music industry. The French government is currently engaging in a criminal activity by attempting to force Apple to give away what they have legitimized and created. There would be no legal downloadable music with out Apple. So the next time we have a situation like the ports deal I think it would be better for us as a free people to examine who are real friends are and why we are friends with them and stop giving some countries like france a free ride when they hardly deserve it.


Wednesday, March 15, 2006

the news this week

According to the Fed, after-tax profits for last year’s fourth quarter hit 8.1 percent of GDP, a post-WWII record. At a trillion dollars, profits are way ahead of their prior peak in 1999 and have nearly doubled since their recent trough in 2001. Family net wealth, the nation’s true savings rate, advanced 8 percent in 2005 to a record level of $52 trillion. (Larry Kudlow)

The Dow industrials rose 75.32 points to 11151.34, nearly a five-year high, after two economic reports trimmed expectations that the Fed will lift rates past 5%. The Nasdaq gained 1.27%. (WSJ)

the fact remains that tax-induced capital cost reduction and resulting higher investment returns have boosted investment, healed business woes, and created employment growth near 2 million new jobs a year (and nearly 5 million since the middle of 2003 when the Bush tax cuts were implemented). (Larry Kudlow)

Iran's supreme leader said Tuesday that Tehran's nuclear program was "irreversible" and warned that any retreat in the face of international pressure would "break the country's independence." (Forbes)

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported Wall Street's highest-ever quarterly profit and revenue, powered by record trading and money-management fees.

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries rose as a government report showed retail sales in February declined, raising speculation that a slowdown in consumer spending may keep inflation in check.

NEARLY a year after this column exposed the Central Intelligence Agency's murky and surprising involvement in the penny-stock market, the Securities and Exchange Commission has confirmed that it is pursuing an investigation involving one of the CIA-linked penny stocks in The Post series. (NY POST)

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market equity funds have attracted $20.9 billion this year, eclipsing the record inflows they garnered in all of 2005, as faster economic growth and a commodities boom lured investors to markets from India to Russia.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

indexing the index

March 14,2006


For the last several years the debate has raged on as too weather it is better to index or seek active managers ,the current common wisdom is that indexes are cheaper ,more tax efficient and out perform most active funds most of the time. Although I do think indexing is an important tool for investors I am not so sure I am sold on the idea that the indexes are always “better argument”. First; of coarse they out perform most actively managed funds, yes true but there are over 8000 mutual funds so I am not sure that is such a big deal. The top 200 funds every year outperform the bottom 7800, yippee! I mean how many all-star baseball players are there in a given year compared to the total amount of players? That seems kind of obvious don’t you think? The amount of quality funds is probably less that 800 out of 8000 anyway. Indexes go on forever, but fund managers especially the good ones retire in style so long term comparisons are difficult and there is a tendency for fund performance to decline as the fund size grows however this process does not seem to apply to index funds. Secondly Outperforming Funds seldom continue to out perform when a market cycle changes. Long term investors realize that the trend of today may not be the trend of tomorrow. A perfect example are funds that specialize in gold or energy, they haven’t out performed since the 1970’s, now they are on fire again. Technology out performed in the late 1990’s but now most of the large cap tech funds have just treaded water. Latin American funds and Asian funds did very well in the early 1990’s now they are hot again. Each new market cycle brings winners and losers; does anyone really think the S&P 500 out performed energy stocks last year? Thirdly large cap funds that have large asset bases and are very limited to what stocks they can actually buy, so most of the time big funds buy all the same stocks and can only buy the biggest stocks in an Index, making these funds mirrors of the index. So for many of the behemoth large cap funds what an investor gets is an index fund with management fees. Beside does anyone think the largest capitalization stocks are often the best performers? Not too often I suspect. Four ; when it comes to smaller and mid cap stocks managers seem to out perform the indexes anyway because often these markets are not that liquid ,investment risk is high and it takes a lot of tire kicking to figure out which end is up. Fifth like most market cycles the late 1990’s and the “nifty fifty mentality” of that era came to an end ,with heavy inflows of cash ,lots of liquidity and easy profits it is easy to see why so many indexes beat actively managed funds. The market environment of the time created the indexing phenomenon .In that environment of it only goes up who needs a manager, but now with the indexes are lagging most managers the last 5 years, it appears that stock picking has gotten back in style. One of the other problems I have with indexing is that the performance is often compared to non correlated investments, yes index funds out performed gold funds in the 1990’s but often this evaluation is thrown around with little regard type of class. The index is also often compared out of context to other investment choices for example Valero was the number one stock in the S&P 500 but does that mean your investments were a failure because your portfolio did not equal the return of Valero? The indexes are often market Cap weighted which makes them far less diverse than you would suspect ie…at one time the top 10 stocks of the S&P 500 accounted for 97% of the move of that index. The other issue is that the out performance of the S&P 500 in the latter part of the 1990’s skews the calculations of total return for a long time to come, that’s why most investors don’t realize the S&P 500 index has underperformed the last 5 years. Do I think indexes are not good, no not really many of the exchange traded indexes like the spiders (S&P 500) are easy to buy and offer lots of liquidity. I think to be successful most investors need to look long term ,use dollar cost averaging and use common sense in rotating sectors and investment styles. And always remember as a rule of thumb it is that an investment declines at twice the rate and speed that it goes up, so for example it takes a month for a stock to go up 50%, it usually takes less than two weeks to decline that same amount. I also think a good money manager is often more measured by protecting you on the down side another words protecting you against loss.


Wednesday, March 08, 2006

say no ,see no, hear no evil

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Iran threatened the United States with "harm and pain" Wednesday for its role in hauling Tehran before the U.N. Security Council over its disputed nuclear program. ( AP)

The United States has alleged that Iran has enough uranium gas to make 10 nuclear weapons and has called for new inspections in the Islamic Republic, a diplomat in Vienna told AFP Wednesday.(DRUDGE REPORT)

The Palestinian Authority's ruling Hamas terror group has launched a web site for children, preaching the moral desirability of being a suicide terrorist through cartoons and children's stories.(Arutz Sheva)

THE lethal strain of bird flu poses a greater challenge to the world than any infectious disease, including AIDS, and has cost 300 million farmers over $10 billion in its spread through poultry around the world, the World Health Organisation said yesterday. (Irish Examiner)

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) - Google Inc. inadvertently published outdated revenue and profit projections on its Web site after last week's meeting with Wall Street analysts, the company said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday. But it stood by its refusal to issue financial projections.

GOOGLE, the internet giant, is planning a massive online facility that could store copies of users' hard drives - a move set to spark alarm among civil liberties campaigners. (

Berkshire Hathaway, the investment group run by Warren Buffett, is pushing up the price of hurricane insurance as a precaution against the possible impact of climate change. Mr Buffett said it remained an open question whether "atmospheric, oceanic or other causal factors have dramatically changed the frequency or intensity of hurricanes" but after the worst quarterly losses in industry history it was prudent to limit exposure. (By Dan Roberts in New York, FT.Com)

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) stunned the sports world today by announcing that its annual college basketball tournament, known to its fans as March Madness, will henceforth be known as March Bipolar Disorder. (

SHANGHAI, March 7 — By some estimates, there are more than 30,000 people patrolling the Web in China, helping to form one of the world's far-reaching Internet filtering systems. (NYT)

NYSE Goes Public After Two Centuries As Not-For-Profit Exchange NEW YORK (AP) -- Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange will begin buying and selling a new stock on Wednesday: shares of the historic Big Board itself. After nearly 214 years as a not-for-profit exchange, the NYSE has transformed itself into a public company after closing its $10 billion acquisition of electronic rival Archipelago Holdings Inc. on Tuesday.

OPEC President Says Group Will Forgo Production Cut Amid Political Instability VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC's president confirmed Wednesday that the group will not change its production level amid the political instability and terrorism unnerving global markets

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

hurricane insurance as a precaution against the possible impact of climate change. and more march maddness

March 7 ,2006

Warren buffet has joined the long list of investors who upon underperforming the stack market has looked towards the heavens or Mother Nature to pass the blame for his failings. In this case with a modern twist,”that global warming” is hurting profits of his insurance companies. I am not really sure climate change explains the underperformance of his Berkshire Hathaway stock my bet would be that the law of large numbers has kicked in meaning it is simple too big and has too much money to out perform the market, well there is always indexing but it is nice to see perceived investment guru’s join us mere mortals in passing the buck for poor investment performance.

So what’s up with this market, it appears that after a good start to the year the market has lost its way? It is looking to me like we are getting over whelmed by four main issues; first it’s the economy stupid! If it grows to fast that implies an interest rate raise which is very bad for the stock market, but if the economy is perceived that it is slowing down to some that may be signaling recession. 2) There are fears that the productivity boom of the last 6 years may be coming to an end, which on one hand will lift employment but the down side is significant inflation risk. 3) It has become apparent to the mainstream that running a huge internet business ie… Google, Yahoo or Ebay take enormous capital infusion’s in Technology and marketing (well gee wiz) to stay competitive and 4) the continued unrest in places like the Gaza Strip or Nigeria and the continued increase in hostilities egged on by Iran and Syria between the west and the Islamic world, and the continued instability of places like North Korea and the discovery of these risks by the main stream (welcome to the party) may be undermining confidence in equities and raising energy prices. All of which is negative for the stock market and implies more than ever that for the prudent investor this has become the energy decade .
James Foytlin