Friday, July 28, 2006

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

The Market is meeting two of the three needed ingredients for a major turn around;

1) Everyone is giving up or looking to get out.
2) Cash is out performing equities.
3) The FED must stop raising rates (well almost, maybe) .

If these three conditions are met it is my humble opinion that we will be in for a transformation from the current bear to the next bull market.

Let me Show you how to Take Advantage of the Flat Yield Curve

3Month CD's yielding over 5% call me Today for a quote

Unlike a Certificate of Deposit that is bought directly from a bank; a brokered CD is sold by stock brokers (and others). And unlike a bank-bought CD, a brokered CD is marketable on a secondary market. It is FDIC insured up to $100,000 and it is often marketed as a suitable alternative to Treasury issues.
Because these are marketable securities it is important to go farther than yield; another words don’t just be a yield hog.
1. Remember like other fixed income investments if interest rates go up, the market value of these securities may go down. That is elementary to anyone who has ever been interested in fixed-income investments.
2. Check the rating of the bank. Stick with higher quality banks.
3. Check the value of a similar issue on the secondary market. Higher rated Bank’s CD’s trade stronger and lower rated banks trade weaker. That means that if you want to sell the CD before its maturity, which you can, CD’s from Banks that have lower ratings often trade below what they were bought at. This could create a loss for the investor.
4. Check the secondary market, as an alternative to new issues, if the secondary-market value is less than par. That may result in a good deal for you. For instance, an issue with a coupon rate of 4.15%, if it sells on the secondary market for 93.5, will yield 4.98%.
5. Remember as a broker I have hundreds of Bank CD’s to chose, from 1 month to 10 years so it is very important for the prospective buyer to as forth coming and truthful about their needs as possible so that the best alternative can be found.
Call me for a Quote CD Today,

James J. Foytlin Jr.

Monday, July 24, 2006

1982 déjà vu all over again

It is beginning to appear that my original prognostication that 2006 was more like 1982 is appearing truer by the moment. The market continues to signal that a pause in rate increases looks to lead equities higher and maybe the catalyst that this market is looking for in the long run to re-ignite the bull market.

First we had a 2 quarter rally which came to an end with the appointment of the new FED chair and the muddled transition from the Greenspan era. The continued outlook that the end of the FED rate increases was nowhere to be seen dampened the enthusiasm for equities, to say the least. Meaning that while the public has lost its appetite for equities the big players seeing lots of value are on a buying binge. This year like 1982 the amount of buyout, merger and take over activity is at an all time high while enormous amounts of cash are sitting on the sidelines in the hands of institutional investors, companies and hedge funds. In 1982 volatility began to increase and volume moved up in parabolic fashion. Be warned that this is only the beginning for the volatility increase and as the new bull starts to charge the ups and downs will start to increase in greater regularity.

Why will the FED finally stop, because summer vacation time will give the economy a much needed vacation coupled with action in the mid east and maybe its just enough to cause the FED to pause for the sake of liquidly and stability. What’s been very noticeable is that all the sectors that should be rallying in an inflationary slow growth environment are flat to down while some that like lower rates and stronger growth like specialty retail, savings banks and shipping stocks are rallying higher.

Oil Prices Adjusted for inflation

from amateur investor .net

Monday, July 17, 2006

I will be in Chicago for business this weekend

I will be in Chicago on business from wednesday the 19th to sunday the 23 of July , reach me on my cell...yes it had gone missing for a couple of days but I found it right where I left it...

Saturday, July 15, 2006

Buy when there is blood in the streets

Buy when there is blood in the streets, as Baron Nathan Rothschild used to say,

At lest now we know another reason why te market has been so weak since May. It looks very risky but disruptions in the mid east and else where may crate a lot of volatility and a lot of opportunity .

Thursday, July 13, 2006

The continuing investigation of stock option manipulation

The continuing investigation of stock option manipulation has now engulfed over 19 corporate executives and 60 companies. The crux of the issue was weather corporations inflated the value of there options by back dating or timing the grants to coincide to the days the stock price was low. Tech companies have been particularly hard hit by this investigation. The investigation is not however limited to Tech with Home Depot and United Health Care being the most notable exceptions .My guess is look for more Tech stocks to get hit and perhaps some Bio Techs . Many new and fast growing companies will be very vulnerable to this investigation because they have often rewarded employees with stock in lieu of pay.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Federal Budget Deficit Continues to Shrink

The new figures show the deficit for the budget year ending Sept. 30 will be $296 billion - much better than the $423 billion that Bush predicted in February and a slight improvement over 2005. (AP)

The projected shortfall is down from the $423 billion deficit the White House forecast five months ago and represents 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, according to the Office of Management and Budget. Last year's deficit was $318 billion. (Bloomberg)

``Tax cuts left nearly $1.1 trillion in the hands of American workers and families and small business owners,'' Bush said in announcing the OMB forecast today at the White House. ``They used this money to help fuel an economic resurgence.'' (President George Bush)

Friday, July 07, 2006

I will be Speaking on July 11,2006

July 5, 2006


I hope you are having a great summer and that you enjoyed celebrating the 4th of July, Our Nation’s birthday!

This event, hosted by Kathleen Paige of RE/MAX Signature Properties, has invited speakers from Capital Mortgage and James Foytlin of Horwitz Associates. Each speaker will present strategies and other investment possibilities for home buyers, small business, retirees and other investors. Learn how today’s interest rates (cost of money), the marketplace trading of equities (stock market) and real estate (purchasing “real” property) together affect financial decisions when and how to invest.

Kathleen is a new resident of Hunterdon County and, although she is new to RE/MAX , she is not new to Real Estate. As a realtor, Kathleen has had sales experience in Hunterdon, Middlesex and Somerset counties for Burgdorff ERA. Ms.Paige has also been a Residential Management/Owner of property in Hudson County. Prior to selling real estate she was a Technical Communications Expert for The Bank of New York on Wall Street. If you would like to learn more about Kathleen’s background, view the RE/MAX Website: and select the tab profile.

I look forward to meeting on July 11,

James Foytlin
RE/MAX Signature Properties

Free Seminar July 11, Tuesday 6 – 8 pm
“Invest In New Jersey”
Today for Tomorrow
At the Renaissnance Plaza located in Flemington
On Route 12 next to Liberty Square
>>off the Flemington Circle<<
Refreshments and Free Handouts!

Thursday, July 06, 2006

More Rockets Are Ready

July 7, 2006


America celebrated its birthday this 4th of July, and feeling a bit left out the hermit kingdom of North Korea tested a series of fireworks it self this week .The markets responded with a bit of unease fearing children shouldn’t play with fire, taking a break and backing off a bit on Wednesday. Some have suggested that China put the little Prince up to test not the rockets but the US anti missile shield. The feeling is beginning to seep into the market that the summer slow down will induce the FED to take a much needed break. While most of the world is currently fixated on the World Cup in tribalistic fashion, folks in the USA take time to ponder the termination of Star Jones from the “view”. The State of New Jersey decided to shut down its government giving the residents the summer off from the abject stupidity, graft and corruption coming from Trenton. Proving once again why New Jersey has become the laughing stock of the US and the world. If not for the closing of the money making tax revenue generating casinos in Atlantic City no one would notice. Another interesting development this week was the visit by the Prime Minister of Canada, no the discussion wasn’t about trade as reported he too was simply looking for an opportunity to sing karaoke at Grace land.