Mexico is in the grip of the worst tortilla crisis in its modern history. Dramatically rising international corn prices, spurred by demand for the grain-based fuel ethanol, have led to expensive tortillas. That, in turn, has led to lower sales for vendors such as Rosales and angry protests by consumers. (Washington Post)
SEN. BIDEN SHOCK INTERVIEW: 'I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy'...(Matt Drudge)
Prime Minister Stephen Harper once called the Kyoto accord a "socialist scheme" designed to suck money out of rich countries, according to a letter leaked Tuesday by the Liberals. (CBC.NEWS)
(CNSNews.com) - British police have arrested eight people during a series of raids in Birmingham, disrupting a plot they describe as a "different approach to terrorism." Details were not released, but according to the BBC, the plot would not have caused mass casualties.
Moscow (CNSNews.com) - Iran is urging Russia to launch a gas exporting grouping similar to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but Moscow has yet to throw its support behind the controversial idea.
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in a year last quarter as declining energy costs helped power consumer spending and contain inflation, enhancing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's stature at the start of his second year.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Go Bears
XX
1986
Chicago Bears
New England Patriots
46-10 Bears
New Orleans, LA
the last time the Bears won the SuperBowl the Dow Jones was up 21.01% not counting dividends that year !
1986
Chicago Bears
New England Patriots
46-10 Bears
New Orleans, LA
the last time the Bears won the SuperBowl the Dow Jones was up 21.01% not counting dividends that year !
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Revised Asset Allocation for 2007 ,Cow flatulence and "hype"
January 29st 2007
Hello,
Ok so FED Chief Bernanke states what I thought was obvious that the Social Security and Medicare are dire financial straits and he then went on to comment on another obvious notion that Americans don’t save enough money .Apparently many of us are in a serious state of denial judging by today’s market action.
Prince Charles did his best for to stem global warming by canceling his sky trip, yep that right apparently he hadn’t heard that cow “flatulence” are now the largest threat to global weather patterns. Perhaps he should go skiing but stop eating beans.
Is it me or is the “hype” surrounding the current stock almost reaching an insane volume. Apparently many believe that if you repeat something often enough however ridiculous it becomes imbedded in the public consciousness. Or is the agenda driven media trying to cover up its own folly? Too much “everything is wonderful with the market” makes me very uncomfortable and I as you all know are not easily given to bearishness.
So what’s really been bothering me about the stock market is that despite all the hype of setting a new high for the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS by my calculations the DOW should be somewhere around 13400 if it had just keep pace with inflation since 2000 and if the DOW had gotten its traditional return of say 11% per annum the DOW JONES should be around 26,000.Lets face it had not for almost ZERO interest rates the stock market would have underperformed cash the last 6 years. The issues for me is that despite the dot bomb, 9/11 corporate scandals, real estate crash and a global asymmetrical war the economy has been very resilient. What’s been bothering me for a long time is the extreme underperformance of the stock market given the strong performance of the economy. I can not find another time when the economy was so strong and the stock so bad.
Foreign Large Caps 10.0%
Pollution Control 5%
Alternative energy 0
Large Cap Technology 20%
Networking 25%
Emerging markets 7.5%
Financials 15%
Semi’s/Semi-equipment makers 7 .5%
Short Term Cash 10%
Premises; Some what weaker dollar but no huge fall, more mergers and acquisitions, more energy awareness, however declining energy prices led by disunity in OPEC, no recession in the USA, no slow down in USA consumer spending, larger caps will out perform smaller caps, large cap Tech will resurrect themselves, global socialism continues to creep, bonds will do a whole lot of nothing, rates will remain about the same and inflation will stay in the closet …
So what’s it going to take to make money in 2007? It maybe a year made more notable by avoiding the big losses than hitting a lot of winners .The very uninspired finish to 2006 ,and the mind less unbridled enthusiasm for the current market from Wall Streeter’s leaves me feeling a bit edgy . However I remain very optimistic that this 6 year bear is going into hibernation soon .So here it goes I am looking for a narrow focus in 2007, with large cap technology taking the lead and networking and network related being the prime performance sector, followed by financial related stocks. Oil looks to be heading down, in my view a long way down. For the faint at hart short term rates seem to be giving an almost risk free return and look very appetizing.
Ok so I am beginning to have my doubts about semi’s I’ll admit it so I am revising my asset allocation model once again ,and raising my allocation to foreign large caps and droping alternate energy because oil is just getting too cheap to make alternative energy investment worthy.
James Foytlin
Horwitz and Associates
Toll free 1(866)492-3959
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
Ok so FED Chief Bernanke states what I thought was obvious that the Social Security and Medicare are dire financial straits and he then went on to comment on another obvious notion that Americans don’t save enough money .Apparently many of us are in a serious state of denial judging by today’s market action.
Prince Charles did his best for to stem global warming by canceling his sky trip, yep that right apparently he hadn’t heard that cow “flatulence” are now the largest threat to global weather patterns. Perhaps he should go skiing but stop eating beans.
Is it me or is the “hype” surrounding the current stock almost reaching an insane volume. Apparently many believe that if you repeat something often enough however ridiculous it becomes imbedded in the public consciousness. Or is the agenda driven media trying to cover up its own folly? Too much “everything is wonderful with the market” makes me very uncomfortable and I as you all know are not easily given to bearishness.
So what’s really been bothering me about the stock market is that despite all the hype of setting a new high for the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS by my calculations the DOW should be somewhere around 13400 if it had just keep pace with inflation since 2000 and if the DOW had gotten its traditional return of say 11% per annum the DOW JONES should be around 26,000.Lets face it had not for almost ZERO interest rates the stock market would have underperformed cash the last 6 years. The issues for me is that despite the dot bomb, 9/11 corporate scandals, real estate crash and a global asymmetrical war the economy has been very resilient. What’s been bothering me for a long time is the extreme underperformance of the stock market given the strong performance of the economy. I can not find another time when the economy was so strong and the stock so bad.
Foreign Large Caps 10.0%
Pollution Control 5%
Alternative energy 0
Large Cap Technology 20%
Networking 25%
Emerging markets 7.5%
Financials 15%
Semi’s/Semi-equipment makers 7 .5%
Short Term Cash 10%
Premises; Some what weaker dollar but no huge fall, more mergers and acquisitions, more energy awareness, however declining energy prices led by disunity in OPEC, no recession in the USA, no slow down in USA consumer spending, larger caps will out perform smaller caps, large cap Tech will resurrect themselves, global socialism continues to creep, bonds will do a whole lot of nothing, rates will remain about the same and inflation will stay in the closet …
So what’s it going to take to make money in 2007? It maybe a year made more notable by avoiding the big losses than hitting a lot of winners .The very uninspired finish to 2006 ,and the mind less unbridled enthusiasm for the current market from Wall Streeter’s leaves me feeling a bit edgy . However I remain very optimistic that this 6 year bear is going into hibernation soon .So here it goes I am looking for a narrow focus in 2007, with large cap technology taking the lead and networking and network related being the prime performance sector, followed by financial related stocks. Oil looks to be heading down, in my view a long way down. For the faint at hart short term rates seem to be giving an almost risk free return and look very appetizing.
Ok so I am beginning to have my doubts about semi’s I’ll admit it so I am revising my asset allocation model once again ,and raising my allocation to foreign large caps and droping alternate energy because oil is just getting too cheap to make alternative energy investment worthy.
James Foytlin
Horwitz and Associates
Toll free 1(866)492-3959
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
in the news
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil surged more than $2 a barrel after the Energy Secretary said the U.S. will double the size of the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
LONDON (Reuters) - Prince Charles, criticised for booking a trans-Atlantic flight to collect an environmental award, has cancelled a ski trip to Switzerland to reduce greenhouse gases, a palace source said on Saturday.
WASHINGTON, Jan. 22, 2007 — Mimicking the hijackers who executed the Sept. 11 attacks, insurgents reportedly tied to al Qaeda in Iraq considered using student visas to slip terrorists into the United States to orchestrate a new attack on American soil. Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, recently testified that documents captured by coalition forces during a raid of a safe house believed to house Iraqi members of al Qaeda six months ago "revealed [AQI] was planning terrorist operations in the U.S."
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., ING Groep NV and Axa SA, the three largest owners of Venezuelan dollar bonds, have faith in President Hugo Chavez. The companies, which hold a combined $1.6 billion of the country's debt, say Venezuela will repay the bonds even after a drop in oil prices reduced revenue and Chavez pledged to seize assets from international investors. The country's securities are the second-worst performers among emerging markets this year.
In recent weeks, a number of articles have noted that Carter’s anti-Israeli views coincide with those of some of the center’s prime financial backers, including the government of Saudi Arabia and the foundation of Saudi prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, whose offer of $10 million to New York City just after Sept. 11 was rejected by then-mayor Rudy Giuliani because it came wrapped in the suggestion that America rethink its support of Israel. Other big donors listed in the Carter Center’s annual reports include the Sultanate of Oman and the sultan himself; the government of the United Arab Emirates; and a brother of Osama bin Laden, Bakr BinLadin, “for the Saudi BinLadin Group.” Of lesser heft, but still large, are contributions from assorted development funds of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as of OPEC, whose membership includes oil-rich Arab states, Nigeria (whose government is also a big donor to the Carter Center), and Venezuela (whose anti-American strongman Hugo Chávez benefited in a 2004 election from the highly controversial monitoring efforts of the Carter Center). (Larry Kudlow)
LONDON (Reuters) - Prince Charles, criticised for booking a trans-Atlantic flight to collect an environmental award, has cancelled a ski trip to Switzerland to reduce greenhouse gases, a palace source said on Saturday.
WASHINGTON, Jan. 22, 2007 — Mimicking the hijackers who executed the Sept. 11 attacks, insurgents reportedly tied to al Qaeda in Iraq considered using student visas to slip terrorists into the United States to orchestrate a new attack on American soil. Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, recently testified that documents captured by coalition forces during a raid of a safe house believed to house Iraqi members of al Qaeda six months ago "revealed [AQI] was planning terrorist operations in the U.S."
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., ING Groep NV and Axa SA, the three largest owners of Venezuelan dollar bonds, have faith in President Hugo Chavez. The companies, which hold a combined $1.6 billion of the country's debt, say Venezuela will repay the bonds even after a drop in oil prices reduced revenue and Chavez pledged to seize assets from international investors. The country's securities are the second-worst performers among emerging markets this year.
In recent weeks, a number of articles have noted that Carter’s anti-Israeli views coincide with those of some of the center’s prime financial backers, including the government of Saudi Arabia and the foundation of Saudi prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, whose offer of $10 million to New York City just after Sept. 11 was rejected by then-mayor Rudy Giuliani because it came wrapped in the suggestion that America rethink its support of Israel. Other big donors listed in the Carter Center’s annual reports include the Sultanate of Oman and the sultan himself; the government of the United Arab Emirates; and a brother of Osama bin Laden, Bakr BinLadin, “for the Saudi BinLadin Group.” Of lesser heft, but still large, are contributions from assorted development funds of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as of OPEC, whose membership includes oil-rich Arab states, Nigeria (whose government is also a big donor to the Carter Center), and Venezuela (whose anti-American strongman Hugo Chávez benefited in a 2004 election from the highly controversial monitoring efforts of the Carter Center). (Larry Kudlow)
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Does Your Fund Manager have faith in Hugo Chavez?
“Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., ING Groep NV and Axa SA, the three largest owners of Venezuelan dollar bonds, have faith in President Hugo Chavez. “
Tell me when to stop laughing …..
Or perhaps the title should read a “fool and his money are easily parted” or maybe “many fools and their shareholders money are easily parted” I am recommending all clients sell these funds today .This strikes me as a bit over the top irresponsible and just plain stupid.
My clients will be selling these funds all day
James Foytlin
1(866)492-3959
Tell me when to stop laughing …..
Or perhaps the title should read a “fool and his money are easily parted” or maybe “many fools and their shareholders money are easily parted” I am recommending all clients sell these funds today .This strikes me as a bit over the top irresponsible and just plain stupid.
My clients will be selling these funds all day
James Foytlin
1(866)492-3959
Friday, January 19, 2007
Discover the Secret of Film Success
What This Year’s Sundance Film Festival Might Signal for the Markets
As Robert Redford’s Sundance Film Festival opens this weekend, there are already headlines calling it “The Most Shocking Film Festival Ever,” serving up “an even greater than usual quota of tabloid-worthy shocking sex and human misery” (Jan. 18, 2007, New York Post).
Accompanying these shocking scenes will undoubtedly be debates about why storyline, cinematography or character development is the most important aspect of a successful film.
Few film followers in Park City, Utah, and beyond will consider an even deeper reasoning around what makes a film successful or wonder why horror films come out in droves one decade and animated “feel good” films rule the roost the next.
However, new research shows that social mood trends are likely the leading factor in both box office busts and cinematic success.
In this three-minute video, you’ll discover what Disney’s Snow White has in common with Texas Chainsaw Massacre, and how the success of both was tied to the financial markets.
This video is just a small portion of the entire documentary History's Hidden Engine by the Socionomics Institute.
Learn more with additional resources on the new science of socionomics:
- Watch History’s Hidden Engine FREE at:
http://www.socionomics.net/a.asp?url=/films/history/default.aspx&cn=6jf
- Read about and buy books and videos on socionomics at:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=store/defaults.asp?view=vendors&cn=6jf
As Robert Redford’s Sundance Film Festival opens this weekend, there are already headlines calling it “The Most Shocking Film Festival Ever,” serving up “an even greater than usual quota of tabloid-worthy shocking sex and human misery” (Jan. 18, 2007, New York Post).
Accompanying these shocking scenes will undoubtedly be debates about why storyline, cinematography or character development is the most important aspect of a successful film.
Few film followers in Park City, Utah, and beyond will consider an even deeper reasoning around what makes a film successful or wonder why horror films come out in droves one decade and animated “feel good” films rule the roost the next.
However, new research shows that social mood trends are likely the leading factor in both box office busts and cinematic success.
In this three-minute video, you’ll discover what Disney’s Snow White has in common with Texas Chainsaw Massacre, and how the success of both was tied to the financial markets.
This video is just a small portion of the entire documentary History's Hidden Engine by the Socionomics Institute.
Learn more with additional resources on the new science of socionomics:
- Watch History’s Hidden Engine FREE at:
http://www.socionomics.net/a.asp?url=/films/history/default.aspx&cn=6jf
- Read about and buy books and videos on socionomics at:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=store/defaults.asp?view=vendors&cn=6jf
I do not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype.
AMS CERTIFIED WEATHERMAN STRIKES BACK AT WEATHER CHANNEL CALL FOR DECERTIFICATION
January 19, 2007
After EPW blog post yesterday Weather Channel Climate Expert Calls for Decertifying Global Warming Skeptics http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=32abc0b0-802a-23ad-440a-88824bb8e528 check out this blog post from ABC-TV Alabama affiliate weatherman James Spann http://www.jamesspann.com/blog.htm
From his blog - his bio:
"In 2005 I upgraded the AMS seal of approval to the new "Certified Broadcast Meteorologist" designation. The CBM is the highest level of certification from the AMS, and involves academic requirements, on-air performance, a rigorous examination, and continuing education.Official bio here: http://www.abc3340.com/news/talent.hrb?i=188
The Weather Channel Mess
January 18, 2007 James Spann Op/Ed
Well, well. Some “climate expert” on “The Weather Channel” wants to take away AMS certification from those of us who believe the recent “global warming” is a natural process. So much for “tolerance”, huh?
I have been in operational meteorology since 1978, and I know dozens and dozens of broadcast meteorologists all over the country. Our big job: look at a large volume of raw data and come up with a public weather forecast for the next seven days. I do not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype. I know there must be a few out there, but I can’t find them. Here are the basic facts you need to know:
*Billions of dollars of grant money is flowing into the pockets of those on the man-made global warming bandwagon. No man-made global warming, the money dries up. This is big money, make no mistake about it. Always follow the money trail and it tells a story. Even the lady at “The Weather Channel” probably gets paid good money for a prime time show on climate change. No man-made global warming, no show, and no salary. Nothing wrong with making money at all, but when money becomes the motivation for a scientific conclusion, then we have a problem. For many, global warming is a big cash grab.
*The climate of this planet has been changing since God put the planet here. It will always change, and the warming in the last 10 years is not much difference than the warming we saw in the 1930s and other decades. And, lets not forget we are at the end of the ice age in which ice covered most of North America and Northern Europe.
If you don’t like to listen to me, find another meteorologist with no tie to grant money for research on the subject. I would not listen to anyone that is a politician, a journalist, or someone in science who is generating revenue from this issue.
In fact, I encourage you to listen to WeatherBrains episode number 12, featuring Alabama State Climatologist John Christy, and WeatherBrains episode number 17, featuring Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, one of the most brilliant minds in our science.
WeatherBrains, by the way, is our weekly 30 minute netcast.
I have nothing against “The Weather Channel”, but they have crossed the line into a political and cultural region where I simply won’t go.
January 19, 2007
After EPW blog post yesterday Weather Channel Climate Expert Calls for Decertifying Global Warming Skeptics http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=32abc0b0-802a-23ad-440a-88824bb8e528 check out this blog post from ABC-TV Alabama affiliate weatherman James Spann http://www.jamesspann.com/blog.htm
From his blog - his bio:
"In 2005 I upgraded the AMS seal of approval to the new "Certified Broadcast Meteorologist" designation. The CBM is the highest level of certification from the AMS, and involves academic requirements, on-air performance, a rigorous examination, and continuing education.Official bio here: http://www.abc3340.com/news/talent.hrb?i=188
The Weather Channel Mess
January 18, 2007 James Spann Op/Ed
Well, well. Some “climate expert” on “The Weather Channel” wants to take away AMS certification from those of us who believe the recent “global warming” is a natural process. So much for “tolerance”, huh?
I have been in operational meteorology since 1978, and I know dozens and dozens of broadcast meteorologists all over the country. Our big job: look at a large volume of raw data and come up with a public weather forecast for the next seven days. I do not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype. I know there must be a few out there, but I can’t find them. Here are the basic facts you need to know:
*Billions of dollars of grant money is flowing into the pockets of those on the man-made global warming bandwagon. No man-made global warming, the money dries up. This is big money, make no mistake about it. Always follow the money trail and it tells a story. Even the lady at “The Weather Channel” probably gets paid good money for a prime time show on climate change. No man-made global warming, no show, and no salary. Nothing wrong with making money at all, but when money becomes the motivation for a scientific conclusion, then we have a problem. For many, global warming is a big cash grab.
*The climate of this planet has been changing since God put the planet here. It will always change, and the warming in the last 10 years is not much difference than the warming we saw in the 1930s and other decades. And, lets not forget we are at the end of the ice age in which ice covered most of North America and Northern Europe.
If you don’t like to listen to me, find another meteorologist with no tie to grant money for research on the subject. I would not listen to anyone that is a politician, a journalist, or someone in science who is generating revenue from this issue.
In fact, I encourage you to listen to WeatherBrains episode number 12, featuring Alabama State Climatologist John Christy, and WeatherBrains episode number 17, featuring Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, one of the most brilliant minds in our science.
WeatherBrains, by the way, is our weekly 30 minute netcast.
I have nothing against “The Weather Channel”, but they have crossed the line into a political and cultural region where I simply won’t go.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
news news news
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday that the economy could be gravely hurt if the nation's fiscal house is not put in order and Social Security and Medicare aren't revamped. "If early and meaningful action is not taken, the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the Senate Budget Committee. (NEWS MAX)
(CNSNews.com) - A vote to raise taxes on domestic energy production will not only increase America's dependence on foreign oil, it also will lower the value of millions of Americans' retirement funds by sending oil companies' stock prices lower, a taxpayer watchdog group is warning.
(CNSNews.com) - A federal appeals court on Wednesday said the State of Maryland may not require large retailers (Wal-Mart was the target) to spend 8 percent of their payrolls on health care for employees.
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican President Felipe Calderon unveiled measures to stem a surge in prices for corn tortillas, the mainstay of the country's diet, as eroding support among the poor threatens to undermine his 48-day-old presidency.
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil plunged below $50 a barrel in New York for the first time since May 2005 after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. oil and fuel supplies surged.
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's economy minister told a group of investors who visited his office yesterday that much of the country's foreign debt is ``illegitimate'' and that the government may repay only 40 percent of it, Citigroup Inc. said.
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. government may face a ``fiscal crisis'' in the coming decades if it fails to deal with the rising costs of retirement and medical benefits for the aging population.
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan. 18 (AP) -- (Kyodo) _ A major newspaper company has sued two Malaysian bloggers for defamation, an unprecedented move that the opposition warned Thursday is aimed at stifling dissent.
(CNSNews.com) - The Weather Channel's most prominent climatologist is calling on the American Meteorological Society to take away their "Seal of Approval" for any television weatherman who is skeptical of global warming.
FED Chief Bernanke states what I thought was obvious
Ok so FED Chief Bernanke states what I thought was obvious that the Social Security and Medicare are dire financial straits and he then went on to comment on another obvious notion that Americans don’t save enough money .Apparently many of us are in a serious state of denial judging by today’s market action.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Asset Allocation for 2007(Still in process)
Foreign Large Caps 5%
Pollution Control 5%
Alternative energy 5%
Large Cap Technology 25%
Networking 25%
Emerging markets 5%
Financials 20%
Semi’s/Semi-equipment makers 10%
Premises; Some what weaker dollar but no huge fall , more mergers and acquisitions, more energy awareness, however declining energy prices led buy disunity in OPEC , no recession in the USA, no slow down in USA consumer spending , larger caps will out perform smaller caps, large cap Tech will resurrect themselves ,global socialism continues to creep, bonds will do a whole lot of nothing ,rates will remain about the same and inflation will stay in the closet …
So what’s it going to take to make money in 2007? It maybe a year made more notable by avoiding the big losses than hitting a lot of winners .The very uninspired finish to 2006 ,and the mind less unbridled enthusiasm for the current market from Wall Streeter’s leaves me feeling a bit edgy . However I remain very optimistic that this 6 year bear is going into hibernation soon .So here it goes I am looking for a narrow focus in 2007, with large cap technology taking the lead and networking and network related being the prime performance sector, followed by financial related stocks. Oil looks to be heading down, in my view a long way down. …..(MORE TO COME)
Pollution Control 5%
Alternative energy 5%
Large Cap Technology 25%
Networking 25%
Emerging markets 5%
Financials 20%
Semi’s/Semi-equipment makers 10%
Premises; Some what weaker dollar but no huge fall , more mergers and acquisitions, more energy awareness, however declining energy prices led buy disunity in OPEC , no recession in the USA, no slow down in USA consumer spending , larger caps will out perform smaller caps, large cap Tech will resurrect themselves ,global socialism continues to creep, bonds will do a whole lot of nothing ,rates will remain about the same and inflation will stay in the closet …
So what’s it going to take to make money in 2007? It maybe a year made more notable by avoiding the big losses than hitting a lot of winners .The very uninspired finish to 2006 ,and the mind less unbridled enthusiasm for the current market from Wall Streeter’s leaves me feeling a bit edgy . However I remain very optimistic that this 6 year bear is going into hibernation soon .So here it goes I am looking for a narrow focus in 2007, with large cap technology taking the lead and networking and network related being the prime performance sector, followed by financial related stocks. Oil looks to be heading down, in my view a long way down. …..(MORE TO COME)
Just the news
(CNSNews.com) - The gap between rich and poor -- a rallying cry for some congressional Democrats wanting to increase mandates on business -- isn't really growing that much, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.From 2001 to 2005 -- the last year data was available -- there was virtually no statistical change in income inequality, based on a statistical test by the Census Bureau, requested and released by Congress's Joint Economic Committee.
One of the first key procedural votes in the Democrat-controlled House last week established legislative rules that Republicans say will make it easier to raise taxes by a simple majority vote. The straight party-line vote received little attention Thursday as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, was elected speaker of the House. But Republican leaders and conservative tax-cut advocates said it opened up a huge loophole in a Republican-imposed rule drawn from the Republicans' 1994 Contract with America, which requires a supermajority, or three-fifths vote, to raise taxes. (Washington Times)
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan bonds fell for a second day after President Hugo Chavez said he would nationalize the country's largest phone company and utilities, exert greater control over the oil industry and strip the central bank of its autonomy.
(Bloomberg)Foreigners bought a net $386 billion of company debt through October last year, a 29 percent increase from the same period in 2005, as purchases of U.S. government bonds fell by about half to $143 billion, according to data released last month by the Treasury Department. ``The environment for corporate issuance in 2007 has never been as positive,'' said Thomas Lewis, head of investment-grade bond underwriting at New York-based Morgan Stanley. ``If it was on a one to 10 scale, you'd be pretty close to a 10. The pool of cash has grown dramatically in the last 12 to 18 months.''
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. investors last year put the least money into domestic stock funds in a rising market since 1989, according to industry statistics. ``The typical retail investor has largely sat out this bull market,'' said Schappe, who helps oversee $16 billion as BB&T's chief investment officer in Raleigh, North Carolina. ``I would get nervous if everyone was already in.''
Europe’s oil supplies from Russia were being held to ransom last night as the Kremlin fell into bitter dispute with a former Soviet satellite state.
Moscow abruptly halted millions of barrels of oil destined for the EU via Belarus in an increasingly hostile wrangle with its neighbour. (TIMESONLINE)
Schwarzenegger's plan, which he publicly unveiled at noon, would require employers with 10 workers or more to buy insurance for their workers or pay a fee of 4% of their payroll into a program to help provide coverage for the uninsured. Schwarzenegger would tax doctors 2% of their gross revenue and place a 4% tax on hospitals. He campaigned for reelection on an anti-tax platform, but his administration argues that so many more people would have insurance that medical providers would make more money. (LATIMES)
UGANDA thinks that it and neighboring countries have discovered oil deposits large enough to rival those of some of the world's greatest petroleum producers, according to Uganda's Energy and Mineral Development Minister Daudi Migereko. (NY POST)
One of the first key procedural votes in the Democrat-controlled House last week established legislative rules that Republicans say will make it easier to raise taxes by a simple majority vote. The straight party-line vote received little attention Thursday as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, was elected speaker of the House. But Republican leaders and conservative tax-cut advocates said it opened up a huge loophole in a Republican-imposed rule drawn from the Republicans' 1994 Contract with America, which requires a supermajority, or three-fifths vote, to raise taxes. (Washington Times)
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan bonds fell for a second day after President Hugo Chavez said he would nationalize the country's largest phone company and utilities, exert greater control over the oil industry and strip the central bank of its autonomy.
(Bloomberg)Foreigners bought a net $386 billion of company debt through October last year, a 29 percent increase from the same period in 2005, as purchases of U.S. government bonds fell by about half to $143 billion, according to data released last month by the Treasury Department. ``The environment for corporate issuance in 2007 has never been as positive,'' said Thomas Lewis, head of investment-grade bond underwriting at New York-based Morgan Stanley. ``If it was on a one to 10 scale, you'd be pretty close to a 10. The pool of cash has grown dramatically in the last 12 to 18 months.''
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. investors last year put the least money into domestic stock funds in a rising market since 1989, according to industry statistics. ``The typical retail investor has largely sat out this bull market,'' said Schappe, who helps oversee $16 billion as BB&T's chief investment officer in Raleigh, North Carolina. ``I would get nervous if everyone was already in.''
Europe’s oil supplies from Russia were being held to ransom last night as the Kremlin fell into bitter dispute with a former Soviet satellite state.
Moscow abruptly halted millions of barrels of oil destined for the EU via Belarus in an increasingly hostile wrangle with its neighbour. (TIMESONLINE)
Schwarzenegger's plan, which he publicly unveiled at noon, would require employers with 10 workers or more to buy insurance for their workers or pay a fee of 4% of their payroll into a program to help provide coverage for the uninsured. Schwarzenegger would tax doctors 2% of their gross revenue and place a 4% tax on hospitals. He campaigned for reelection on an anti-tax platform, but his administration argues that so many more people would have insurance that medical providers would make more money. (LATIMES)
UGANDA thinks that it and neighboring countries have discovered oil deposits large enough to rival those of some of the world's greatest petroleum producers, according to Uganda's Energy and Mineral Development Minister Daudi Migereko. (NY POST)
Monday, January 08, 2007
Dow Performance Mid Term Election Year and Year Following a Mid Term Election Year
Dow Performance Mid Term Election Year and Year Following a Mid Term Election Year
Mid Term Up/ Following Up/
Election Down Year Down
Year
1922 Up 1923 Down
1926 Up 1927 Up
1930 Down 1931 Down
1934 Up 1935 Up
1938 Up 1939 Down
1942 Up 1943 Up
1946 Down 1947 Up
1950 Up 1951 Up
1954 Up 1955 Up
1958 Up 1959 Up
1962 Down 1963 Up
1966 Down 1967 Up
1970 Up 1971 Up
1974 Down 1975 Up
1978 Down 1979 Up
1982 Up 1983 Up
1986 Up 1987 Up
1990 Down 1991 Up
1994 Up 1995 Up
1998 Up 1999 Up
2002 Down 2003 Up
2006 Up 2007 ?
Up defines a Year in which the Dow finished with a Positive Return
Down means the Dow finished the Year with a Negative Return
Mid Term Up/ Following Up/
Election Down Year Down
Year
1922 Up 1923 Down
1926 Up 1927 Up
1930 Down 1931 Down
1934 Up 1935 Up
1938 Up 1939 Down
1942 Up 1943 Up
1946 Down 1947 Up
1950 Up 1951 Up
1954 Up 1955 Up
1958 Up 1959 Up
1962 Down 1963 Up
1966 Down 1967 Up
1970 Up 1971 Up
1974 Down 1975 Up
1978 Down 1979 Up
1982 Up 1983 Up
1986 Up 1987 Up
1990 Down 1991 Up
1994 Up 1995 Up
1998 Up 1999 Up
2002 Down 2003 Up
2006 Up 2007 ?
Up defines a Year in which the Dow finished with a Positive Return
Down means the Dow finished the Year with a Negative Return
Friday, January 05, 2007
News News News
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. added a greater-than-forecast 167,000 workers to payrolls in December and incomes grew by the most in eight months, adding to evidence the economy is weathering a slump in housing and manufacturing. The gain in employment followed a 154,000 rise in November that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today. The jobless rate held at 4.5 percent.
the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The trade group, which tracks the progress of chip sales globally, said that worldwide semiconductor sales rose 11.3% to $22.7 billion in November. That -- ahem -- was the fifth straight month of record sales.(Motley Fool)
WASHINGTON, Jan. 4, 2007 — North Korea appears to have made preparations for another nuclear test, according to U.S. defense officials. (ABC NEWS)
An agreement the Bush administration reached with Mexico on Social Security benefits would allow illegal aliens granted amnesty in the future to claim credit for the time they worked illegally. The deal was reached in 2004 but never released publicly because it hasn't been submitted to Congress. (Washington Times)
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices shed more than $2 Thursday to settle at their lowest level since June 2005, after the U.S. government reported higher-than- expected inventories of gasoline, heating oil and diesel fuel amid warm winter temperatures. (AP)
BERLIN (AP) - Five years after they started carrying euros in their purses and wallets, a majority of Germans surveyed say it was a bad idea to replace the once-dominant German mark with the shared currency. ( Canadain Press)
the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The trade group, which tracks the progress of chip sales globally, said that worldwide semiconductor sales rose 11.3% to $22.7 billion in November. That -- ahem -- was the fifth straight month of record sales.(Motley Fool)
WASHINGTON, Jan. 4, 2007 — North Korea appears to have made preparations for another nuclear test, according to U.S. defense officials. (ABC NEWS)
An agreement the Bush administration reached with Mexico on Social Security benefits would allow illegal aliens granted amnesty in the future to claim credit for the time they worked illegally. The deal was reached in 2004 but never released publicly because it hasn't been submitted to Congress. (Washington Times)
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices shed more than $2 Thursday to settle at their lowest level since June 2005, after the U.S. government reported higher-than- expected inventories of gasoline, heating oil and diesel fuel amid warm winter temperatures. (AP)
BERLIN (AP) - Five years after they started carrying euros in their purses and wallets, a majority of Germans surveyed say it was a bad idea to replace the once-dominant German mark with the shared currency. ( Canadain Press)
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Hermit King Makes his presents felt....
So a north Korean Nuke test and the Asian markets sell off for three days you think they would be used to this by now….
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Out of the Office
I will be out of the office on thursday January 4th on business .
Please call my cell (201)966-7788
Please call my cell (201)966-7788
The Holiday hanging of Saddam got global markets off to a fast start for 2007
Looks like as I said earlier that 2007 will be a year were many people get what they deserve . Anyway futures suggest that US markets look to follow the upside move of the rest of the world.And don’t for get third year of the presidential cycle typically Leads to an up beat market And don’t for get third year of the presidential cycle typically Leads to an up beat market
Monday, January 01, 2007
Year End Confession
December 29,2006
Hello,
Look I feel as bad for the Polar Bears as anyone, so I have a simple solution to offer, take advantage of all the snow storms move them all to Denver.
Well it’s the end of the year and its that time for your broker to confess and except his lump of coal for Christmas. Ok so let’s face it this just wasn’t my best year it seemed to be a year that if you didn’t have a big winner your gains could be wiped out by one false step. High risk emerging markets led the way. While Europe continued to out perform in the face of raising rates and real-estate investment trusts did well in the face of vast US real-estate slump. It was a year that often led to out performance and under performance in counter intuitive ways. Many felt global risk increased significantly yet oil and gold sold off. For all the inflation and recession talk consumer spending remained very healthy. Metal prices weakened signaling slowdown but not inflation. Early in the year we were well positioned, but when energy and value gave way to growth stocks most of the portfolios suffered and never regained their mojo.
The year end rally didn’t really materialize and left this market watchers wondering where’s the volume and why is all this cash still sitting on the sidelines. The advance / decline line and the new highs / new low line remained singularly unimpressive. Retail investors continued to bail with mutual fund out flows often out numbering fund inflows. Yes the DOW hit a new high, but this high is only slightly higher than the high of 2000 . By my calculation with an 11% per annum return the DOW should be somewhere around 24000 just to be were it should be. Yes there were a number of doom and gloomer’s looking for and ’87 style melt down but by my calculations, “you can’t fall off the floor”.
As for 2007 I would look for more of the same, merger mania will continue like it did for some time in the early 80’s before the market got a jump start. Perhaps the consolidation of the EU as an economic zone will continue to boost share prices despite higher rates? My bet is your going to see more emerging markets ,but don’t count the US markets out ,its just been too long in the dog house . The consequences of the melt down of 2000 are still with us, so as always just when you lest expect it off to the races we go. Increased bearishness and gloom about the US are defiantly a signal but like the end of the 1970’s early 1980’s it took a long time to get going.
Biggest regrets, well selling HP a bit early it hit my target at 30 and I sold but it kept going. I guess even I underestimated the damage the previous management did. I would have liked to get back in Apple but I thought this executive option scandal was going to kill them, it didn’t .I baled a bit early on some of the exchanges ,I just could justify any price weakness and when I got it for too long I was gone . IAAC got the sell at 39, it hit the mark backed off then rallied to 49, then crashed to the low 20’s .so a bit early. And yes didn’t buy enough Google but winner or not I am still very uncomfortable with that one.
High Lights well despite a great start and a poor finish I did manage to open up 3 times as many accounts as I did last year .Incidentally they came mostly in the last 4 months of the year so I guess I wasn’t the only one having trouble with this market . Another high point was linking up with Elliot Wave International ( http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/about.html ) and I also am now doing mortgages again through Riverview Mortgage in Rutherford . The other big positive was that I renovated my office installed a new phone system and it looks and feels a lot better so please call me to set up an appointment.
Poor Gerry Ford, even in his death he can’t get the timing right. Ex President Fords death grabbed the headlines for what seemed only a matter of minutes when the Godfather of Soul James Brown died a day or so later. The only man to become president without the bother of the campaign was dealt another tuff hand, having to compete with the God Father of Soul’s estate locking his widow out of his mansion at 6am. A star athlete and military hero, member of the Warren Commission and long term congressmen he presided under the shadow of Watergate and just before the malaise of the Carter Years. Ford became President by default when both Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew left office under separate clouds. His tenure as president was marked by what many have called a “national healing” after Watergate another words he didn’t do anything to piss anyone off. He is known for his “Whip Inflation Now” buttons, a fashion statement that just never caught on. The act he will long be most remembered for and perhaps defines his presidency to most was his pardon of Richard Nixon, which many people with no lives still argue about it to this day. In later years he became more famous for being the longest living ex president. Unlike other ex presidents Gerry Ford managed for the most part to keep his foot out of his mouth, but upon his death a lot has been made of his opposition to the Iraq war believing that more sanctions, like the “oil for fraud” program were the way to go. So a lot will be said of Gerry Ford in the next couple of days but at the end of the day his presidency will be very hard to put a finger on and define. As part of a national day of morning for Gerry Ford the US Equity markets will be closed on Tuesday January 2nd to mark his funeral, so take that James Brown and Happy New Year Everyone!
Finally I just wanted to say that I very much appreciate everyone’s business big and small and I am looking forward to a much improved 2007 .
Happy New Year
James Foytlin
Horwitz and Associates
Toll free 1(866)492-3959
(201)301-2780
Fax (201)301-2762
Cell (201)966-7788
www.jamesfoytlin.com
investment guru
Hello,
Look I feel as bad for the Polar Bears as anyone, so I have a simple solution to offer, take advantage of all the snow storms move them all to Denver.
Well it’s the end of the year and its that time for your broker to confess and except his lump of coal for Christmas. Ok so let’s face it this just wasn’t my best year it seemed to be a year that if you didn’t have a big winner your gains could be wiped out by one false step. High risk emerging markets led the way. While Europe continued to out perform in the face of raising rates and real-estate investment trusts did well in the face of vast US real-estate slump. It was a year that often led to out performance and under performance in counter intuitive ways. Many felt global risk increased significantly yet oil and gold sold off. For all the inflation and recession talk consumer spending remained very healthy. Metal prices weakened signaling slowdown but not inflation. Early in the year we were well positioned, but when energy and value gave way to growth stocks most of the portfolios suffered and never regained their mojo.
The year end rally didn’t really materialize and left this market watchers wondering where’s the volume and why is all this cash still sitting on the sidelines. The advance / decline line and the new highs / new low line remained singularly unimpressive. Retail investors continued to bail with mutual fund out flows often out numbering fund inflows. Yes the DOW hit a new high, but this high is only slightly higher than the high of 2000 . By my calculation with an 11% per annum return the DOW should be somewhere around 24000 just to be were it should be. Yes there were a number of doom and gloomer’s looking for and ’87 style melt down but by my calculations, “you can’t fall off the floor”.
As for 2007 I would look for more of the same, merger mania will continue like it did for some time in the early 80’s before the market got a jump start. Perhaps the consolidation of the EU as an economic zone will continue to boost share prices despite higher rates? My bet is your going to see more emerging markets ,but don’t count the US markets out ,its just been too long in the dog house . The consequences of the melt down of 2000 are still with us, so as always just when you lest expect it off to the races we go. Increased bearishness and gloom about the US are defiantly a signal but like the end of the 1970’s early 1980’s it took a long time to get going.
Biggest regrets, well selling HP a bit early it hit my target at 30 and I sold but it kept going. I guess even I underestimated the damage the previous management did. I would have liked to get back in Apple but I thought this executive option scandal was going to kill them, it didn’t .I baled a bit early on some of the exchanges ,I just could justify any price weakness and when I got it for too long I was gone . IAAC got the sell at 39, it hit the mark backed off then rallied to 49, then crashed to the low 20’s .so a bit early. And yes didn’t buy enough Google but winner or not I am still very uncomfortable with that one.
High Lights well despite a great start and a poor finish I did manage to open up 3 times as many accounts as I did last year .Incidentally they came mostly in the last 4 months of the year so I guess I wasn’t the only one having trouble with this market . Another high point was linking up with Elliot Wave International ( http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/about.html ) and I also am now doing mortgages again through Riverview Mortgage in Rutherford . The other big positive was that I renovated my office installed a new phone system and it looks and feels a lot better so please call me to set up an appointment.
Poor Gerry Ford, even in his death he can’t get the timing right. Ex President Fords death grabbed the headlines for what seemed only a matter of minutes when the Godfather of Soul James Brown died a day or so later. The only man to become president without the bother of the campaign was dealt another tuff hand, having to compete with the God Father of Soul’s estate locking his widow out of his mansion at 6am. A star athlete and military hero, member of the Warren Commission and long term congressmen he presided under the shadow of Watergate and just before the malaise of the Carter Years. Ford became President by default when both Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew left office under separate clouds. His tenure as president was marked by what many have called a “national healing” after Watergate another words he didn’t do anything to piss anyone off. He is known for his “Whip Inflation Now” buttons, a fashion statement that just never caught on. The act he will long be most remembered for and perhaps defines his presidency to most was his pardon of Richard Nixon, which many people with no lives still argue about it to this day. In later years he became more famous for being the longest living ex president. Unlike other ex presidents Gerry Ford managed for the most part to keep his foot out of his mouth, but upon his death a lot has been made of his opposition to the Iraq war believing that more sanctions, like the “oil for fraud” program were the way to go. So a lot will be said of Gerry Ford in the next couple of days but at the end of the day his presidency will be very hard to put a finger on and define. As part of a national day of morning for Gerry Ford the US Equity markets will be closed on Tuesday January 2nd to mark his funeral, so take that James Brown and Happy New Year Everyone!
Finally I just wanted to say that I very much appreciate everyone’s business big and small and I am looking forward to a much improved 2007 .
Happy New Year
James Foytlin
Horwitz and Associates
Toll free 1(866)492-3959
(201)301-2780
Fax (201)301-2762
Cell (201)966-7788
www.jamesfoytlin.com
investment guru
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