Friday, June 29, 2007

news news news

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- After six months of unprecedented hype, thousands of people Friday will get their hands on the iPhone, the new cell phone that Apple Inc. is banking on to become its third core business next to its moneymaking iPod players and Macintosh computers.

TEHRAN: Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack. (Herald Tribune)

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil prices shot back up above the psychologically important $70 a barrel mark on Friday, trading at a level last seen 10 months ago for the second time in two days on worries about gasoline supplies.

President Hugo Chávez yesterday hinted that Venezuela could try to become a nuclear power, during a visit to Russia apparently timed to antagonise the White House. (the Guardian)

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are masking burgeoning losses in the market for subprime mortgage bonds by failing to cut the credit ratings on about $200 billion of securities backed by home loans.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - A bill that would require most dogs and cats in California to be spayed or neutered has brought howls of protest from breeders and threats from the American Kennel Club to pull the nation's second-largest dog show from the state.
Some tourists, amateur photographers, even would-be filmmakers hoping to make it big on YouTube could soon be forced to obtain a city permit and $1 million in liability insurance before taking pictures or filming on city property, including sidewalks. New rules being considered by the Mayor’s Office of Film, Theater and Broadcasting would require any group of two or more people who want to use a camera in a single public location for more than a half hour to get a city permit and insurance. (NYT)

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Commerce Bancorp Inc. replaced Chief Executive Officer Vernon Hill, the company founder who turned it into New Jersey's biggest bank, and agreed with regulators to bar deals between directors and outside vendors.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Bear Trouble and Black Stone

Bear Stearns has to pony up to make one of its hedge funds hole and the market takes a tumble. To make matter worse there seems to be some confusion as to weather the fund would be forced to sell some assets or Bear would step up with cash .The fund had some significant loses in the sub prime area but at this point I don’t think it is going to spread .

Black Stone Group followed the age old principal on Wall Street to cash out before you get found out. Looks to me more like the beginning of the end for private equity funds than the beginning of something big. Many financial stocks have preformed poorly this year yet the hype of these deals knows no bounds, it is important to remember Wall Street makes money by selling you things and the amount of hype is usually in direct inverse proportion to the value of the holdings. Yes its true the good deals you almost never hear anything about until it’s to late.

Investment Group Meetings

Cool Stuff at

Investment group all are welcome novice as well as advanced, talk investment strategies in a casual club like atmosphere over a drink and house music .email to RSVP ,or call (201)966-7788 no fee all are welcome,Teak on the Hudson, 16-18 Hudson Street Hoboken NJ across form the Hoboken Path Station, meeting starts at 9pm .

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

the GE Factor

When GE hits a new high the old Wall Street saw is that this is a very bullish signal for US equities. Its just one more thing indicating significantly higher stock markets. 1) my(not a generally shared opinion) reading of the Elliot Wave has switch from long term bear which started in march of 2000 to long term bull 2) DOW Theory says bull market has started 3) the inverted yield curve went back to normal (reverted) and now 4) GE hits a 52 week high .
The evidence continues to stack up that we are experiencing the start of a new bull market.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

A more normal yield curve

The recent moves in interest rates have restored the yield curve back to a more normal status, P/E ratios still remain in my mind very low making US equity markets a global bargain. I would use this correction to pursue further purchases at this time. From the recent stock market action the reversal of the inverted yield curve may be a further bullish signal.

Friday, June 08, 2007

velocity of the change and the dead cat bounce

The market appears to have entered a short term corrective phase, the trick here is to focus on the velocity of the change, If the market sell off fast and furious, the rebound will be of equal magnitude, but if this sell down turns into a slow rolling sell down incomplete in nature and low volume like many of the sell downs in the last several years this could get ugly. Again the two key elements to playing this thing are the velocity of the down turns another words how far how fast and climactic volume which would signal the bottom. Remember that an incomplete sell off could lead to further down side ,so if we get a short term rally but the volume isn’t there be wary ,the correction isn’t over . In the business this is known as the “dead cat bounce” Usually the market sells off for a time with the volume building till finally we have a day were the market hits a new low then rallies under heavy volume, commonly referred to as the big reversal.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

denile is a state of mind not a place on the map

The real issue today is the closing of Prudential’s Equity research and Trading divisions, for those on Wall Street living in denial its further proof of the continued Bear market in US Equities, which this blogger has for previous stated reasons thinks is about to end.

Denial has been the main theme on Wall Street since the 2000 sell off and a failure of this magnitude on Wall Street is feeding the fire that the recovery in US markets is not here just yet .Yes it appears we are still “screwed” as I used to say. This debacle adds short term pressure to this market and further fuels the fire that Prudential’s purchase of Bache Securities was about the worst investment ever made by a financial institution in modern history.

Monday, June 04, 2007

Speculative Money looks to migrate to US markets

The current melt down in the Chinese Market may be the precursor to better US equity markets. Speculative money looks to be starting to migrate from China and other high risk emerging markets too the much lower in valuation US markets which at this juncture offer more upside with lower risk.

Cell Phone Issues

Folks it looks like my cell phone fried yesterday so until I get a new one please contact me at (201)3001-2780 or Toll Free 1(866)492-3959