Trick or treat time for the FED today !

Hello,

We are entering the seasonally favorable time of the year for stocks, strong earnings by techs and medicals seem to be pushing the market higher despite continued weakness in the financials.

According to recent surveys consumers perceive interest rates to be too high, in the past consumers had an uncanny ability to predict future interest rates and higher batting average than economists. No surprise here given consumers are in fact the end customer.
Investors often ask me how can a regular guy get a head in the world and retire in comfort. Over time it boils down to several factors. Remember constancy for most of us is significantly more important than brilliance.

1) Hold a steady job.
2) View savings as a mandatory bill you are paying yourself.
3) Invest on a regular basis over a long period of time.
4) Avoid early with drawls from 401k, IRA or any other retirement plans.
5) Start as early in life as possible.
6) Keep it simple don’t diversify your self out of your returns.
While I have your attention for 2007 your ability to contribute to your IRA is $4000 and 2008 limit has been increased to $5000. Distributions from 403b plans used by Municipal workers or 457 plans used by Hospitals, Teachers and Universities can now be rolled over into a traditional IRA or a SEP plans. SEP plans now have a maximum contribution of 25% of compensation up to $40,000.

http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/



James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762

here we go again ..............

Of coarse Charley Rangels $ 1 trillion dollar tax increase proposal had nothing to do with the market going down?

Folks this isn’t the 1970’s

I have said this before, economist have predicted 9 out of the last 2 recessions. Folks this isn’t the 1970’s, interest rates are low and looking to go down and employment remains pretty strong with a low very unemployment rate ,so why would the consumer default on their credit agreements if they are working and interest rates remain low ? The answer is they wont.

Black Monday 20 years later

20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash…..

Since 87 the pattern emerged of tremendous volatility, the market would sell off through most of October then turn around right on or around October 20th rallying pushing equities into the positive by month end. However since the year long melt down of 2000 this and many other seasonal patterns in the markets have not been as defined nor consistent.

So the decline of the dollar is making news ,but what does this really mean for investors?

The post war period was a time of an enormous increase in us production capacity to help rebuild the world from the ravages of war.In the seventies the process reversed and the US consumer backed by a strong US currency emerged .From the early1980’s till 2000 the US consumer carried the world economy on its back .Today is again like the 1970’s marked by a period of transition .The new consumers in Asia ,India and South America are beging to drive the world economy .The the US currency is declining to better position US manufacturiers to sell to world markets . US investors must reposition themselves for the new boom in exports and the power of the new consumer(china,india,brazil).

And Today the Upside to Global Warming

As I had expected oil inventories were quite a bit larger than expected,can you say indian summer anyone?

Oil, Can you say buy on the rumor sell on the news?

I am not sure I think that Turkish incursions in to northern Iraq will have the net impact so many are looking for. Prior to the current government, Turkey chased Kurdish rebels into northern Iraq on a semi regular basis and I am not sure it had any effect on Iraqi oil then and I don’t see it as having any effect on Iraqi oil now. The market once again seems to be factoring the worst case and as I have often stated on this blog ,that markets hate uncertainty .Can you say buy on the rumor sell on the news?

Gores prize,Turkey's war and earnings yes earnings

October 15th, 2007

Hello,

Al Gore the man who brought you the internet is now a proud sponsor of climate change thru global warming, my bet is that in the long run he is as right about climate change as he was about discovering the internet, but hey there is lots of money to be made with carbon dispensations….

Oil prices surge on news that Turkey looking to invade Northern Iraq, one question what took you so long? As Oil continues to hover around $80 a barrel this seems to be propelling alternative energy stocks ever higher.

For the buy signal, Option traders are telling us the market has hit a short term peak. Being the contrarian I am I am always willing to bet against any commonly held notions. Another bullish signal is that retail investors continue to take money out of equity mutual funds. In the past there was no better predictor of market direction than mutual fund money flows. What can I say looks like a nice set up for some more upside in US equities?

Yes its earnings times once again and much has been made about changes in managements, mergers and acquisitions, my suggestion would be for many companies who are having a tuff time better to focus on customer service especially when sales are internet dependent, Technology is proven to not be a substitute for brains or service.

It seems earnings expectations have been greatly diminished, and traders wonder weather the FED’s Halloween meeting will offer a trick or a treat? The release of the September 18th minutes seem to suggest the FED was neither panicked nor oblivious contrary to popular belief.

So why buy US stocks, well from a global perspective the US continues to have higher earning predictability which usually garners a premium and lower volatility compared to other markets.





James J Foytlin

2 bullish signals

For the buy signal Option traders are telling us the market has hit a short term peak ,yep that’s the news of the day .The same facts that produced a upside on Friday are now the same data points that will lead to the massive demise of western civilization some how I have heard this all before.

Another bullish signal continues to be that retail investors continue to take money out of equity mutual funds. In the past there was no better predictor of market direction than mutual fund money flows.What can I say looks like a nice set up for some more upside in US equities?

So now we know why the Citi never sleeps (Update)

October 5, 2007

Hello,

So now we know why the Citi never sleeps. It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank. The recent confessions by Citi sent the markets into the sky, looks like many investors like seeing where the bodies are buried.

One senses a full blown disaster has been averted and the across the board weakness in the financial sector has created shopping opportunities for larger rivals ,thus Toronto Dominion takes over Commerce Bank ,gaining a foot hold in the North East USA. I am sure this will not be the last given the irrational destruction of financials and the seizing of the bond and credit markets .Its not the end consumers that are failing it’s the traders and investment bankers that seem to have given in to panic. Foreign rivals also have the advantage of a weaker dollar giving them greater purchasing power.

The craziest thing about the recent jobs data was that it had economist complaining that the economy is not creating enough low wage jobs?

This may be an ideal time to ensure that your portfolio holdings are correctly diversified and on track toward meeting your investment objectives. As a way to introduce myself and the broad range of financial services I can offer, I’d like to offer you a comprehensive portfolio review.

I want you to know that I’m here for you and reiterate my commitment to helping you reach your financial goals. Please contact me at you earliest convenience to set up a comprehensive portfolio review and update your contact information and investment goals. Please call me, James Foytlin at 1(866)492-3959.





James J Foytlin

you say what?

The craziest thing about the recent jobs data was that it had economist complaining that the economy is not creating enough low wage jobs?

It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank

So now we know why the Citi never sleeps. It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank. The recent confessions by Citi sent the markets into the sky, looks like many investors like seeing where the bodies are buried.

One senses a full blown disaster has been averted and the across the board weakness in the financial sector has created shopping opportunities for larger rivals ,thus Toronto Dominion takes over Commerce Bank ,gaining a foot hold in the North East USA. I am sure this will not be the last given the irrational destruction of financials and the seizing of the bond and credit markets .Its not the end consumers that are failing it’s the traders and investment bankers that seem to have given in to panic. Foreign rivals also have the advantage of a weaker dollar giving them greater purchasing power.

This may be an ideal time to ensure that your portfolio holdings are correctly diversified and on track toward meeting your investment objectives. As a way to introduce myself and the broad range of financial services I can offer, I’d like to offer you a comprehensive portfolio review.

I want you to know that I’m here for you and reiterate my commitment to helping you reach your financial goals. Please contact me at you earliest convenience to set up a comprehensive portfolio review and update your contact information and investment goals. Please call me, James Foytlin at 1(866)492-3959

Citi Confesses

No crisis is complete until Citi confesses and now we are starting to see where the bodies are buried.