The bulls are expecting stocks to climb anywhere from 5% to 25% next year, as a steadily growing economy, solid corporate profits, controlled inflation and a likely end to Federal Reserve rate increases make equities attractive. The median forecast is for a 9% gain, which would put the Dow industrials at the doorstep of 12,000 and at an all-time high. Characteristic of the bulls' perspective is Tobias Levkovitch of Citigroup, who says: "Investor sentiment, earning and valuation all are saying that we'll get strong gains in the market." He calls his forecast of a 12% rise in the S&P 500, to 1400, "conservative." (BARRONS)
…Ed Keon of Prudential Equity Group, who early this year turned from lukewarm to extremely positive and now sees the market rocketing higher by 25%, to 1530 on the S&P 500(in 2006). (BARRONS)
U.S productivity grew a revised 4.7% annual rate during the third quarter, faster than the initial estimate of a 4.1% gain, as labor costs fell 1% (WSJ)
December 6, 2005 -- Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest traders of energy contracts on Wall Street, is selling a New Jersey power plant it acquired just two years ago in what some observers peg as a signal the global energy market is reaching a peak. (NY POST)
Unemployment is down to 5%, better than the average for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. The economy has expanded by 4.5 million new jobs since May 2003, including 215,000 in November. Just last week, the third quarter estimate for growth in domestic output was revised upward, to 4.3 %.( NY SUN)
An investment-led US economy in 2006 and beyond, with technology and energy in the forefront, adjusting to a lower dollar and to the need for higher domestic savings, is not only desirable and feasible, but in fact highly probable. In our opinion, longer term, it will also lead to significantly higher equity prices.( Nicocles Leandros Michas, director of economics & investment strategy,Alexandros Partners)
CLUMSY typing cost a Japanese bank at least £128 million and staff their Christmas bonuses yesterday, after a trader mistakenly sold 600,000 more shares than he should have. (TIME on LINE)
The Department of Homeland Security said it is aware of the problem and is working with local enforcement agencies to prevent it. "Roosevelt Avenue is one of the primary areas in New York City to buy false documents, but it is not limited to any borough, or any immigrant community, and it is not new," a spokesman for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Mark Thorn, said. Earlier this week the Queens district attorney's office, working with the New York Police Department's Special Fraud Unit, took a swipe at the market. In one of the largest investigations in recent years, authorities arrested more than a dozen alleged dealers in false documents, including the location where this reporter bought a fake green card last Thursday for $100. It will take more than one sweep, however, to put the brakes on this market. (NY SUN)
Montreal (CNSNews.com) - The debate over climate change evolved into a battle of the sexes at a U.N. Climate Change Conference in Montreal on Monday. A feminist environmentalist accused men of being the biggest contributors to human-caused "global warming" and lamented that women are bearing the brunt of the negative climate consequences created by men.
Montreal (CNSNews.com) - The Kyoto Protocol on climate change was declared "dead" by several organizations attending the 11th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference this week in Montreal.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Comments by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expressing doubt about the Holocaust and suggesting Israel be moved to Europe are appalling and reprehensible, the U.S. State Department said on Thursday.
A statement from the Guangdong (CHINA)provincial authorities said a commander of the People's Armed Police, a division of the People's Liberation Army, was detained for "wrong actions" that led to the deaths Tuesday of villagers protesting land seizures in a coastal town north of Hong Kong. (NY SUN)
ROME - Italians would have to pay a 20 percent tax on pornography according to a budget amendment that cleared a first legislative hurdle, news reports said Thursday. The proposed tax was approved at committee level and is expected to go before the Chamber of Deputies, Italy's lower parliamentary house, early next week.(AP)
DECEMBER 8--In a blow to New Yorkers who enjoyed having their premium marijuana delivered to their doorsteps, Drug Enforcement Administration agents have busted up a six-year-old pot ring calling itself the Cartoon Network that was busy preparing its festive holiday shipments before federal agents kicked in the door. (The Smoking Gun)
BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraqi citizens turned over a high-ranking Al Qaeda member known as "the Butcher" to U.S. forces in Ramadi Friday a military statement said…."He is the highest ranking Al Qaeda in Iraq member to be turned into Iraqi and U.S. officials by local citizens," Capt. Jeffrey S. Pool said in a statement released from Camp Blue Diamond in Ramadi. "His capture is another indication that the local citizens tire of the insurgents' presence within their community." (FOX NEWS)
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Voting begins Monday in hospitals, military camps and even prisons across Iraq, launching the process to choose a new parliament that the United States hopes can help quell the insurgency so U.S. forces can begin heading home.
"We are very prepared for the elections, and we are highly determined," Interior Minister (IRAQ) Bayan Jabr said. "We hope that everyone participates and that it will be a safe day. ... We are at a historic juncture." (AP)
Monday, December 12, 2005
the FAT finger..dont get GOOGLED
December 9, 2005
Hello,
To GOOGLE or Not, that is the question? I know what your thinking I have been wrong about this stock since day one. Is it me am I the only one that feels he has heard all this before. When I first heard the calls that GOOGLE was a $500 stock I checked my calendar to see if it was 1999 or was it simply a ghost of Christmas past? This email discussion is not about weather GOOGLE is a buy or not it is more a function of what a realistic valuation of a stock is and what realistic investor expectations are. Does the call for a $500 GOOGLE sound similar to past prognostications, like QCOM at $1000 or AMZN at $400? Sure does to me. I realize pay for advertising is big business, and they do offer some premium services but so do most search engines. I have been using GOOGLE for about 8 years and I am not sure they have ever made a dime form me. So the jury is out the stock is up big and the hype is out of control. Remember hype is free so don’t buy it. Is it a sell well I am not sure ,but as the old Wall street adage goes ; you don’t go broke by taking profits. Would I short it? Not me I am not in the habit getting in front of a freight train and as for buying it now? It is no bargain so I would pack a Para shoot if I did. And last of all the time to pray is before you buy it not after. It is important to remember that even if the BULLS on the stock are absolutely right revenue and earnings acceleration won’t move in a straight line for long, often some unexpected event or some unforeseen issue knocks down the growth rate. IT just always happens sometimes sooner than later, but none the less always seems to happen. Change is not a constant, it is more like 2 steps forward 1 step back, than a straight rate of change.
As for the market this year well I think the whole thing has ended up being a whole lot of nothing. It seems enormous earnings and huge increases in productivity were no match for the FED’s incremental interest rate increases and continuing higher oil prices. This leads to the old Wall Street adage, “don’t fight the FED” and that leads to a second Wall Street adage,”the gas tank is always half empty”. Ok that’s not really a Wall Street adage but it does seem that higher fuel prices have kept a lid on higher equity valuations. I look at next year and see a topping of interest rates sometime by mid year and a flatting out of energy prices staying high but slowing down in the velocity of change and not going higher as quickly.
James
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Gold Prices go higher try inflation indexed FDIC insured CD's
LaSalle has 2 issues. One is due in 2007 and
One is due in 2010.
The one in 2007 is CPI + .85% (first coupon 5.20%)
Monthly floater.
The one in 2010 is CPI + 1.40% (first coupon 5.75%)
Monthly floater.
(LaSalle Bank in Florida)
email me for details
One is due in 2010.
The one in 2007 is CPI + .85% (first coupon 5.20%)
Monthly floater.
The one in 2010 is CPI + 1.40% (first coupon 5.75%)
Monthly floater.
(LaSalle Bank in Florida)
email me for details
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
get the facts man
November 22, 2005 -- Search engine use has soared in the last year and is creeping up on e-mail as the most popular activity on the Web, according to a study from the Pew Internet and American Life Project and comScore Media Metrix. Nearly 60 million Americans use a search engine every day, up from 38 million one year ago. (NY POST)
The H5N1 strain of bird flu seen in human cases in China has mutated as compared with strains found in human cases in Vietnam. Chinese labs have found that the genetic order of the H5N1 virus seen in humans infected in China is different from that found in humans in Vietnam, Xinhua news agency reported Monday. (AFP)
Moscow (CNSNews.com) - It may have been a joke, but some media organizations and politicians in Moscow appear to have taken half-seriously a satirical suggestion that the United States should sell Alaska back to Russia for $1 trillion. The tongue-in-cheek proposal published in a U.S. newspaper raised the vague notion still present here that Russia could one day retrieve the territory it sold to the U.S.
Retailers' hopes for their biggest season were boosted as sales picked up steam on Saturday, after a Friday kickoff that was down slightly from last year. In all, about 145 million shoppers swarmed stores and the Internet over the weekend and spent an estimated $27.8 billion — up 22% from the weekend a year ago — according to a survey of retailers by the National Retail Federation. (USA TODAY)
The gold market "is hot and it is going to get hotter," Newmont President Pierre Lassonde said in an interview on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television yesterday. "By early next year you are going to see $525 and down the road even a lot higher than that." (NY POST)
Gold prices reached a record high in London, reaching over $500 per ounce for the first time since February of 1983. Considering inflation is nowhere near the backbreaking 12% rate seen back then, the historic rise in the yellow metal is being supported by a combination of factors. Holding the greatest significance is the increasing demand, particularly out of Asia. Gold prices are also being underpinned by the commodity's status as a hedge against inflation. (Briefing.com)
Christopher Noteboom, of Tempe, Ariz., ran onto the field holding a plastic bag, leaving a cloud of fine powder behind…The 33-year-old Noteboom, a native of Doylestown, said his mother died of emphysema in January 2005, shortly before the Eagles' Super Bowl appearance…."She never cared for any other team except the Eagles," Noteboom told WPVI-TV after he was released from custody Monday. "I know that the last handful of ashes I had are laying on the field, and will never be taken away. She'll always be part of Lincoln Financial Field and of the Eagles."… "It's bizarre, but we have a zero tolerance for people who run on the field," Police Inspector William Colarulo said. "We especially have a zero tolerance for people who run onto the field and dump an unknown substance in a stadium full of people."(FOX NEWS)
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence rose in November by the most in more than two years as falling gasoline prices encouraged shoppers before the start of the holiday season.
It is a war between 27 million and 10,000; 27 million Iraqis who want to live lives of freedom, opportunity and prosperity and roughly 10,000 terrorists who are either Saddam revanchists, Iraqi Islamic extremists or al Qaeda foreign fighters who know their wretched causes will be set back if Iraq becomes free and modern. The terrorists are intent on stopping this by instigating a civil war to produce the chaos that will allow Iraq to replace Afghanistan as the base for their fanatical war-making. We are fighting on the side of the 27 million because the outcome of this war is critically important to the security and freedom of America. If the terrorists win, they will be emboldened to strike us directly again and to further undermine the growing stability and progress in the Middle East, which has long been a major American national and economic security priority. (Senator Joe Lieberman D-CT)
Here is an ironic finding I brought back from Iraq. While U.S. public opinion polls show serious declines in support for the war and increasing pessimism about how it will end, polls conducted by Iraqis for Iraqi universities show increasing optimism. Two-thirds say they are better off than they were under Saddam, and a resounding 82% are confident their lives in Iraq will be better a year from now than they are today. What a colossal mistake it would be for America's bipartisan political leadership to choose this moment in history to lose its will and, in the famous phrase, to seize defeat from the jaws of the coming victory. (Senator Joe Lieberman D-CT)
WASHINGTON - Amid a surging wave of repression by the Castro dictatorship, Cuba's prisoners of conscience increasingly are resorting to "acts of desperation" - including hunger strikes, suicide attempts, and self-mutilation - in a cry for international recognition and solidarity, and to advance the cause of the island's liberation. (NY SUN)
The H5N1 strain of bird flu seen in human cases in China has mutated as compared with strains found in human cases in Vietnam. Chinese labs have found that the genetic order of the H5N1 virus seen in humans infected in China is different from that found in humans in Vietnam, Xinhua news agency reported Monday. (AFP)
Moscow (CNSNews.com) - It may have been a joke, but some media organizations and politicians in Moscow appear to have taken half-seriously a satirical suggestion that the United States should sell Alaska back to Russia for $1 trillion. The tongue-in-cheek proposal published in a U.S. newspaper raised the vague notion still present here that Russia could one day retrieve the territory it sold to the U.S.
Retailers' hopes for their biggest season were boosted as sales picked up steam on Saturday, after a Friday kickoff that was down slightly from last year. In all, about 145 million shoppers swarmed stores and the Internet over the weekend and spent an estimated $27.8 billion — up 22% from the weekend a year ago — according to a survey of retailers by the National Retail Federation. (USA TODAY)
The gold market "is hot and it is going to get hotter," Newmont President Pierre Lassonde said in an interview on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television yesterday. "By early next year you are going to see $525 and down the road even a lot higher than that." (NY POST)
Gold prices reached a record high in London, reaching over $500 per ounce for the first time since February of 1983. Considering inflation is nowhere near the backbreaking 12% rate seen back then, the historic rise in the yellow metal is being supported by a combination of factors. Holding the greatest significance is the increasing demand, particularly out of Asia. Gold prices are also being underpinned by the commodity's status as a hedge against inflation. (Briefing.com)
Christopher Noteboom, of Tempe, Ariz., ran onto the field holding a plastic bag, leaving a cloud of fine powder behind…The 33-year-old Noteboom, a native of Doylestown, said his mother died of emphysema in January 2005, shortly before the Eagles' Super Bowl appearance…."She never cared for any other team except the Eagles," Noteboom told WPVI-TV after he was released from custody Monday. "I know that the last handful of ashes I had are laying on the field, and will never be taken away. She'll always be part of Lincoln Financial Field and of the Eagles."… "It's bizarre, but we have a zero tolerance for people who run on the field," Police Inspector William Colarulo said. "We especially have a zero tolerance for people who run onto the field and dump an unknown substance in a stadium full of people."(FOX NEWS)
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence rose in November by the most in more than two years as falling gasoline prices encouraged shoppers before the start of the holiday season.
It is a war between 27 million and 10,000; 27 million Iraqis who want to live lives of freedom, opportunity and prosperity and roughly 10,000 terrorists who are either Saddam revanchists, Iraqi Islamic extremists or al Qaeda foreign fighters who know their wretched causes will be set back if Iraq becomes free and modern. The terrorists are intent on stopping this by instigating a civil war to produce the chaos that will allow Iraq to replace Afghanistan as the base for their fanatical war-making. We are fighting on the side of the 27 million because the outcome of this war is critically important to the security and freedom of America. If the terrorists win, they will be emboldened to strike us directly again and to further undermine the growing stability and progress in the Middle East, which has long been a major American national and economic security priority. (Senator Joe Lieberman D-CT)
Here is an ironic finding I brought back from Iraq. While U.S. public opinion polls show serious declines in support for the war and increasing pessimism about how it will end, polls conducted by Iraqis for Iraqi universities show increasing optimism. Two-thirds say they are better off than they were under Saddam, and a resounding 82% are confident their lives in Iraq will be better a year from now than they are today. What a colossal mistake it would be for America's bipartisan political leadership to choose this moment in history to lose its will and, in the famous phrase, to seize defeat from the jaws of the coming victory. (Senator Joe Lieberman D-CT)
WASHINGTON - Amid a surging wave of repression by the Castro dictatorship, Cuba's prisoners of conscience increasingly are resorting to "acts of desperation" - including hunger strikes, suicide attempts, and self-mutilation - in a cry for international recognition and solidarity, and to advance the cause of the island's liberation. (NY SUN)
Seward’s Folly,cyber monday and bond swaps for the tax man
November 28th 2005
Hello,
So were we in the black on “black Friday” or not? Any one near a shopping mall or a down town shopping district would have to say black or red we were certainly stuck in traffic. Yes some retailers did better than others, and given that many retailers had wool coats in, in the middle of July when it was a mere 100 degrees out side, they are going to need more than one black Friday. Forget black Friday anyway I use a far more accurate judge of commerce, than mere retail sales; I use the “Christmas light indicator”. The Christmas light indicator you ask, what’s that? The more Christmas lights you see on roof tops and chimneys the more prosperous the consumer feels and the better the economy is. As for me it has been one of those “almost years”, a lot of good things almost happened and I don’t work for Goldman Sacks so Santa is not bringing a big check but I scarped together my parking change and purchased a string of icicle Christmas lights (450 lights) and ran them across my front porch. They are guaranteed to blink 45,000 times a minute, kinda gives the place a Las Vegas strip feel and the neighbors love it.
So what is all this talk of “cyber Monday” anyway you ask, seems that internet shopping has come of age. It is nice to know that high speed internet access can be used for something other than down loading porn and music from I Tunes. So the talking heads are trying to tell us that employees will be arriving to work with their Santa’s list to do some shopping. Nice to see the worker bees get to work on time for a change and I thought it was the free doughnuts and coffee. As for me I only keep one “S” list and that doesn’t stand for Santa.
The end of the year is coming and it is time to take a look and clean up some positions. Remember you pay taxes only on realized gains .So if you are looking to increase the quality of your bond portfolio, increase total return, and take advantage of higher rates or save some money on taxes. Now maybe a good time to consider bond swaps. By converting your paper loses in to real losses you can offset taxable gains and improve portfolio.
I continue to feel that getting the NASDQ going in a big way is the key to reigniting public interest and trust in the equity markets. Like I said last week NASDQ needs to double just to be even with the highs of March 2000. Yes I know all the talking of “4 year highs”, which basically get us back to where we were 2 years ago. This is a crucial juncture and a big push upward would be an extremely bullish sign. In recent days great economic data has given way to fears of that the FED will tighter further and faster due to the quickening pace of economic acceleration. Higher interest rates put a cap on the market’s upside but so do higher oil prices. The flip side being the economy is awash with cash, and with a slow down in the real-estate market there is no place for it to go, but into the market.
James
Check out the updates
http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
turkey week news
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. regulators have asked Roche AG for more information about the deaths of 12 children who took the flu-fighting drug Tamiflu, saying in a report released on Thursday that the cause of the deaths was "extremely difficult to interpret."
Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders call for a troop withdrawal timetable at an Arab League conference in Egypt; denounce terror acts against Iraqi civilians (FOX NEWS)
WASHINGTON (AP) - An Iranian exile who opposes his country's Islamic government said Monday that Iran's military is building a series of secret tunnels to hide equipment for missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.(AP)
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's clearout of his opponents began last month but is more sweeping than previously understood and has reached almost every branch of government, the Guardian has learned. Dozens of deputy ministers have been sacked this month in several government departments, as well the heads of the state insurance and privatisation organisations. Last week, seven state bank presidents were dismissed in what an Iranian source described as "a coup d'état". (the Guardian)
Parliament approved a bill Sunday requiring the government to block international inspections of its atomic facilities if the U.N. nuclear monitoring agency refers Iran to the Security Council for possible sanctions. (AP)
Match.com, a unit of IAC/Interactive Corp. is accused in a federal lawsuit of goading members into renewing their subscriptions through bogus romantic e-mails sent out by company employees. In some instances, the suit contends, people on the Match payroll even went on sham dates with subscribers as a marketing ploy.
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc. agreed to buy Scientific-Atlanta Inc. for $6.9 billion, adding the second- largest U.S. maker of set-top boxes for cable television and tapping into the growing market for Internet TV.
November 21, 2005 -- RICHMOND, Va. — U.S. District Judge James R. Spencer wasn't exactly exuding Southern hospitality when he greeted attorneys in the long-running BlackBerry patent battle. Three years ago, a jury decided against the maker of the wireless e-mail device, Research In Motion, but Spencer held off on an injunction that could have shut down service in the U.S. (NY POST)
…the magic stopped working so well. The big stocks that had contributed heavily to the 500 index's runaway rise suffered some outsized losses when the bullish bubble burst. In the last five years through the middle of this week, the Vanguard 500 fund has declined 0.6 percent a year. Over the same stretch, the average of all long-term mutual funds tracked by Bloomberg has gained 4.2 percent a year. (Chet Currier BLOOMBERG)
For the second year in a row, this destitute city has been named the nation's most dangerous, according to a company's annual ranking based on crime statistics…..The city took the top spot last year from Detroit, which remained No. 2 in the most dangerous city rankings, to be released Monday by Morgan Quitno Press. The Lawrence, Kan.-based company publishes "City Crime Rankings," an annual reference book. (AP)
November 22, 2005 -- Apple Computer Inc.'s iTunes online store is the seventh-largest music retailer in the U.S., breaking into the top 10 during the 3rd quarter for the first time, according to researcher NPD Group Inc. (NYPOST)
Eliot Spitzer dropped criminal charges against an ex-CIBC executive accused of aiding improper fund trading, marking a retreat by the New York attorney general. (WSJ)
Most US Manufacturers say they face moderate or severe shortages of skilled workers, according to a survey by Deloitte.(WSJ)
Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders call for a troop withdrawal timetable at an Arab League conference in Egypt; denounce terror acts against Iraqi civilians (FOX NEWS)
WASHINGTON (AP) - An Iranian exile who opposes his country's Islamic government said Monday that Iran's military is building a series of secret tunnels to hide equipment for missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.(AP)
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's clearout of his opponents began last month but is more sweeping than previously understood and has reached almost every branch of government, the Guardian has learned. Dozens of deputy ministers have been sacked this month in several government departments, as well the heads of the state insurance and privatisation organisations. Last week, seven state bank presidents were dismissed in what an Iranian source described as "a coup d'état". (the Guardian)
Parliament approved a bill Sunday requiring the government to block international inspections of its atomic facilities if the U.N. nuclear monitoring agency refers Iran to the Security Council for possible sanctions. (AP)
Match.com, a unit of IAC/Interactive Corp. is accused in a federal lawsuit of goading members into renewing their subscriptions through bogus romantic e-mails sent out by company employees. In some instances, the suit contends, people on the Match payroll even went on sham dates with subscribers as a marketing ploy.
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc. agreed to buy Scientific-Atlanta Inc. for $6.9 billion, adding the second- largest U.S. maker of set-top boxes for cable television and tapping into the growing market for Internet TV.
November 21, 2005 -- RICHMOND, Va. — U.S. District Judge James R. Spencer wasn't exactly exuding Southern hospitality when he greeted attorneys in the long-running BlackBerry patent battle. Three years ago, a jury decided against the maker of the wireless e-mail device, Research In Motion, but Spencer held off on an injunction that could have shut down service in the U.S. (NY POST)
…the magic stopped working so well. The big stocks that had contributed heavily to the 500 index's runaway rise suffered some outsized losses when the bullish bubble burst. In the last five years through the middle of this week, the Vanguard 500 fund has declined 0.6 percent a year. Over the same stretch, the average of all long-term mutual funds tracked by Bloomberg has gained 4.2 percent a year. (Chet Currier BLOOMBERG)
For the second year in a row, this destitute city has been named the nation's most dangerous, according to a company's annual ranking based on crime statistics…..The city took the top spot last year from Detroit, which remained No. 2 in the most dangerous city rankings, to be released Monday by Morgan Quitno Press. The Lawrence, Kan.-based company publishes "City Crime Rankings," an annual reference book. (AP)
November 22, 2005 -- Apple Computer Inc.'s iTunes online store is the seventh-largest music retailer in the U.S., breaking into the top 10 during the 3rd quarter for the first time, according to researcher NPD Group Inc. (NYPOST)
Eliot Spitzer dropped criminal charges against an ex-CIBC executive accused of aiding improper fund trading, marking a retreat by the New York attorney general. (WSJ)
Most US Manufacturers say they face moderate or severe shortages of skilled workers, according to a survey by Deloitte.(WSJ)
Happy Thanks Giving
November 21,2005
Hello,
That’s right you herd it right the NASDQ has hit a 4 year high, gee another 2873 and some odd points up and we will be even with March 2000. This means the NASDQ would need to more than double yes that is over a 100% increase to return to its former glory. Taking a longer term prospective investors would notice that we have barley moved ahead of January 2004 and slightly behind December 2002 .The recent move up may be nothing more than an end of the year “Santa Clause” rally or as I have long stated we are way overdue for a significant prolonged raise in the stock markets. To date the 2000 to 2005 market has under preformed the 1930-1935 market. I can not over state the case that this decade has very little in common with the 1930’s .We are also on the verge of underperforming the 1970’s and as all economic data has suggested there is little of nothing in common with the pathetic performance of the economy in the 1970’s. Yes there are some similarities of the two mentioned decades as in the 1930’s the winds of war are blowing and many nations are embracing authoritarianism and like the 1970’s real estate has been a runaway success and energy is the major focus. In both cases the current challenges seem to pale by comparison. However the market for many needs to prove it self all the strong earnings, and large cash positions mean nothing if investors don’t feel confident that there some reasonable probability that they are going to make money. The good news is that the financials continue to move up ,IPO’s abound ,buyouts continue at almost a daily pace ,stock purchase plans are buying back shares ,tech stocks are again on the move and the economy continues to advance in spite of higher energy prices. All of which historically imply that the stock market should be beginning a large move up ward.
Since bank style CD’s are now starting to yield in some cases in excess of 7% I have decide to reprint this post from my website. Recently I have had some clients ask me what’s the difference between buying a CD from a bank or one from a broker? Here are some helpful hints; Unlike a Certificate of Deposit that is bought directly from a bank; a brokered CD is sold by stock brokers (and others). And unlike a bank-bought CD, a brokered CD is marketable on a secondary market. It is FDIC insured up to $100,000 and it is often marketed as a suitable alternative to Treasury issues. Because these are marketable securities it is important to go farther than yield; another words don’t just be a yield hog.
1. Remember like other fixed income investments if interest rates go up, the market value of these securities may go down. That is elementary to anyone who has ever been interested in fixed-income investments.
2. Check the rating of the bank. Stick with higher quality banks.
3. Check the value of a similar issue on the secondary market. Higher rated Bank’s CD’s trade stronger and lower rated banks trade weaker. That means that if you want to sell the CD before its maturity, which you can, CD’s from Banks that have lower ratings often trade below what they were bought at. This could create a loss for the investor.
4. Check the secondary market, as an alternative to new issues, if the secondary-market value is less than par. That may result in a good deal for you. For instance, an issue with a coupon rate of 4.15%, if it sells on the secondary market for 93.5, will yield 4.98%.
5. Remember as a broker I have hundreds of Bank CD’s to chose, from 1 month to 10 years so it is very important for the prospective buyer to as forth coming and truthful about their needs as possible so that the best alternative can be found.
Call me for a CD QUOTE today,
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
1(888)599-1188 or (201)652-3003
www.jamesfoytlin@optonline.net
Hello,
That’s right you herd it right the NASDQ has hit a 4 year high, gee another 2873 and some odd points up and we will be even with March 2000. This means the NASDQ would need to more than double yes that is over a 100% increase to return to its former glory. Taking a longer term prospective investors would notice that we have barley moved ahead of January 2004 and slightly behind December 2002 .The recent move up may be nothing more than an end of the year “Santa Clause” rally or as I have long stated we are way overdue for a significant prolonged raise in the stock markets. To date the 2000 to 2005 market has under preformed the 1930-1935 market. I can not over state the case that this decade has very little in common with the 1930’s .We are also on the verge of underperforming the 1970’s and as all economic data has suggested there is little of nothing in common with the pathetic performance of the economy in the 1970’s. Yes there are some similarities of the two mentioned decades as in the 1930’s the winds of war are blowing and many nations are embracing authoritarianism and like the 1970’s real estate has been a runaway success and energy is the major focus. In both cases the current challenges seem to pale by comparison. However the market for many needs to prove it self all the strong earnings, and large cash positions mean nothing if investors don’t feel confident that there some reasonable probability that they are going to make money. The good news is that the financials continue to move up ,IPO’s abound ,buyouts continue at almost a daily pace ,stock purchase plans are buying back shares ,tech stocks are again on the move and the economy continues to advance in spite of higher energy prices. All of which historically imply that the stock market should be beginning a large move up ward.
Since bank style CD’s are now starting to yield in some cases in excess of 7% I have decide to reprint this post from my website. Recently I have had some clients ask me what’s the difference between buying a CD from a bank or one from a broker? Here are some helpful hints; Unlike a Certificate of Deposit that is bought directly from a bank; a brokered CD is sold by stock brokers (and others). And unlike a bank-bought CD, a brokered CD is marketable on a secondary market. It is FDIC insured up to $100,000 and it is often marketed as a suitable alternative to Treasury issues. Because these are marketable securities it is important to go farther than yield; another words don’t just be a yield hog.
1. Remember like other fixed income investments if interest rates go up, the market value of these securities may go down. That is elementary to anyone who has ever been interested in fixed-income investments.
2. Check the rating of the bank. Stick with higher quality banks.
3. Check the value of a similar issue on the secondary market. Higher rated Bank’s CD’s trade stronger and lower rated banks trade weaker. That means that if you want to sell the CD before its maturity, which you can, CD’s from Banks that have lower ratings often trade below what they were bought at. This could create a loss for the investor.
4. Check the secondary market, as an alternative to new issues, if the secondary-market value is less than par. That may result in a good deal for you. For instance, an issue with a coupon rate of 4.15%, if it sells on the secondary market for 93.5, will yield 4.98%.
5. Remember as a broker I have hundreds of Bank CD’s to chose, from 1 month to 10 years so it is very important for the prospective buyer to as forth coming and truthful about their needs as possible so that the best alternative can be found.
Call me for a CD QUOTE today,
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
1(888)599-1188 or (201)652-3003
www.jamesfoytlin@optonline.net
Thursday, November 17, 2005
news news news
(CNSNews.com) - A climatologist Monday was quick to dismiss the Fox News special on "global warming," complaining that it featured "profoundly juvenile climate science."
The American people are being hoodwinked not just by the green activists, but by the scientists who get billions of dollars for creating global climate models that can't even forecast backward, let along forward," said Dennis Avery of the Hudson Institute's Center for Global Food Issues in an interview with Cybercast News Service. (CNSNEWS)
Climatologist Patrick J. Michaels, the author of several books on climate change including "Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media," believes the contribution of human activity on planetary warming will be "modest" (CNSNEWS)
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Rising sea levels caused by global warming could shrink New Jersey by up to 3 percent in the next 100 years, U.S. scientists warned on Wednesday. (and that’s a bad thing?)
We have cataloged the human genome, conquered the mystery of outer space and mastered the art of transmitting data bits around the world in seconds. Yet we still can't resist the urge to tinker with the invisible hand. (Carline Baum ,Bloomberg)
The grandstanding by Congress last week was great theater. Any attempt to translate the investigation into high oil prices into legislation to curb them will turn this comedy into tragedy. (Carline Baum ,Bloomberg)
November 16, 2005 -- Legendary investor George Soros has increased his bet on technology as part of a shopping spree that boosted the holdings of a hedge fund he controls by 44 percent, an SEC filing shows. Shares of Amazon.com, IBM and Apple jumped yesterday after Soros Fund Management filed paperwork showing that it had bought large stakes in the companies in the third quarter. Soros bought 292,500 shares of Amazon.com, worth $13.25 million, 260,000 shares of Apple, worth $13.94 million, and 326,000 shares of IBM, worth $26.15 million. (NY POST)
Civil liberties groups have been criticizing the "sneak and peek" provision of the USA Patriot Act since the law was passed after the September 11 attacks, and Bush administration officials have been defending it. But for all the debate, the provision was not used at all by federal prosecutors in most jurisdictions, including Manhattan and the Bronx, in the year and a half that followed the law's enactment in 2001, according to data obtained by The New York Sun.
`It's really hard to get bullish on bonds,'' said William Hornbarger, chief fixed-income strategist at St. Louis-based A.G. Edwards Inc., which had $316 billion in client assets at the end of the second quarter. ``The Fed's not going to stop here.'' (BLOOMBERG)
VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran has begun processing a new batch of uranium despite Western pressure on it to halt sensitive atomic work, possibly harming attempts to defuse a standoff over its nuclear aims, a diplomat said on Wednesday.
China is sure to defeat bird flu the way it defeated the lung disease SARS, Premier Wen Jiabao said a day after news of the first confirmed human avian flu fatality rattled the nation. (AFP)
The American people are being hoodwinked not just by the green activists, but by the scientists who get billions of dollars for creating global climate models that can't even forecast backward, let along forward," said Dennis Avery of the Hudson Institute's Center for Global Food Issues in an interview with Cybercast News Service. (CNSNEWS)
Climatologist Patrick J. Michaels, the author of several books on climate change including "Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media," believes the contribution of human activity on planetary warming will be "modest" (CNSNEWS)
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Rising sea levels caused by global warming could shrink New Jersey by up to 3 percent in the next 100 years, U.S. scientists warned on Wednesday. (and that’s a bad thing?)
We have cataloged the human genome, conquered the mystery of outer space and mastered the art of transmitting data bits around the world in seconds. Yet we still can't resist the urge to tinker with the invisible hand. (Carline Baum ,Bloomberg)
The grandstanding by Congress last week was great theater. Any attempt to translate the investigation into high oil prices into legislation to curb them will turn this comedy into tragedy. (Carline Baum ,Bloomberg)
November 16, 2005 -- Legendary investor George Soros has increased his bet on technology as part of a shopping spree that boosted the holdings of a hedge fund he controls by 44 percent, an SEC filing shows. Shares of Amazon.com, IBM and Apple jumped yesterday after Soros Fund Management filed paperwork showing that it had bought large stakes in the companies in the third quarter. Soros bought 292,500 shares of Amazon.com, worth $13.25 million, 260,000 shares of Apple, worth $13.94 million, and 326,000 shares of IBM, worth $26.15 million. (NY POST)
Civil liberties groups have been criticizing the "sneak and peek" provision of the USA Patriot Act since the law was passed after the September 11 attacks, and Bush administration officials have been defending it. But for all the debate, the provision was not used at all by federal prosecutors in most jurisdictions, including Manhattan and the Bronx, in the year and a half that followed the law's enactment in 2001, according to data obtained by The New York Sun.
`It's really hard to get bullish on bonds,'' said William Hornbarger, chief fixed-income strategist at St. Louis-based A.G. Edwards Inc., which had $316 billion in client assets at the end of the second quarter. ``The Fed's not going to stop here.'' (BLOOMBERG)
VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran has begun processing a new batch of uranium despite Western pressure on it to halt sensitive atomic work, possibly harming attempts to defuse a standoff over its nuclear aims, a diplomat said on Wednesday.
China is sure to defeat bird flu the way it defeated the lung disease SARS, Premier Wen Jiabao said a day after news of the first confirmed human avian flu fatality rattled the nation. (AFP)
grandstanding ....and is Television is over? and the secret password is UGH-MA
November 16th 2005
Hello,
One of the more interesting developments of the internet is the ability of the consumer to down load data at will. The recent explosion of high speed internet access or broad band access gives the consumer quick and usable way to down load music, or video ,including their favorite TV shows .For a mere $2 you can down load your favorite episode of “Desperate House Wives” commercial free . If this process continues it will be a boom for internet advertising and a boom for those sites that offer the service. The video on demand or information on demand business has been battling those elements who wish to make the internet more like TV force feeding data to unwilling masses. Those that see the power of the internet in its ability to deliver customized services at a mass produced cost have long opposed the TV model and view it as the anti- internet, but now with the availability of high speed internet access the vision long held that commercial ventures can drive enough eyeballs and gather pay per service customers as well as free access customers truly supported by advertising as a business model that’s time is finally come reaching a reality and make traditional TV obsolete.
OK so the jokers in Washington want to blame it on the oil companies. Wind fall profits yea that’s the ticket. Will someone explain to me how raising taxes on a particular industry is going to lower the prices to the consumer a better idea maybe to place a moratorium on all federal and state taxes on gasoline. Isn’t funny when the people who have screwed up energy policy and done everything in their power to undermine the energy independence in the US are going to investigate the effect of their misguided policies? Don’t believe me; when was the last refinery built in the US hummmm oh 1974. How about those wind mills build off of Cape Cod oh that’s right the Kennedy’s didn’t want their view ruined and all those Nuclear Power plants built, oh that’s right it has been about 30 years since the last one. As for me I am buying energy stocks, being a product of the 1970’s I have seen all this before.
A Uniform Gift to Minors (UGMA) otherwise known as an UGH-MA is an account you can set up for your children or and underage person. The IRS allows you to transfer (gift) up to $11,000 per child. It is simple for your broker to set up and does not involve any lawyers. The advantages are that the money is taxed at the child’s rate under the child’s social security number. You can establish and account for anyone underage ,a grandchild and god child and nephew and so on .You are the custodian and make all decisions related to the account until the child comes of age, which in most states is 18. Once the minor reaches legal age they take control of the account and it is there to do as they please yes that means anything so Paris Hilton watch out. As custodian you act as the fiduciary which means you have to handle the money in a “prudent manner” so margin, futures trading, horse racing and sports betting are probably not OK.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
One of the more interesting developments of the internet is the ability of the consumer to down load data at will. The recent explosion of high speed internet access or broad band access gives the consumer quick and usable way to down load music, or video ,including their favorite TV shows .For a mere $2 you can down load your favorite episode of “Desperate House Wives” commercial free . If this process continues it will be a boom for internet advertising and a boom for those sites that offer the service. The video on demand or information on demand business has been battling those elements who wish to make the internet more like TV force feeding data to unwilling masses. Those that see the power of the internet in its ability to deliver customized services at a mass produced cost have long opposed the TV model and view it as the anti- internet, but now with the availability of high speed internet access the vision long held that commercial ventures can drive enough eyeballs and gather pay per service customers as well as free access customers truly supported by advertising as a business model that’s time is finally come reaching a reality and make traditional TV obsolete.
OK so the jokers in Washington want to blame it on the oil companies. Wind fall profits yea that’s the ticket. Will someone explain to me how raising taxes on a particular industry is going to lower the prices to the consumer a better idea maybe to place a moratorium on all federal and state taxes on gasoline. Isn’t funny when the people who have screwed up energy policy and done everything in their power to undermine the energy independence in the US are going to investigate the effect of their misguided policies? Don’t believe me; when was the last refinery built in the US hummmm oh 1974. How about those wind mills build off of Cape Cod oh that’s right the Kennedy’s didn’t want their view ruined and all those Nuclear Power plants built, oh that’s right it has been about 30 years since the last one. As for me I am buying energy stocks, being a product of the 1970’s I have seen all this before.
A Uniform Gift to Minors (UGMA) otherwise known as an UGH-MA is an account you can set up for your children or and underage person. The IRS allows you to transfer (gift) up to $11,000 per child. It is simple for your broker to set up and does not involve any lawyers. The advantages are that the money is taxed at the child’s rate under the child’s social security number. You can establish and account for anyone underage ,a grandchild and god child and nephew and so on .You are the custodian and make all decisions related to the account until the child comes of age, which in most states is 18. Once the minor reaches legal age they take control of the account and it is there to do as they please yes that means anything so Paris Hilton watch out. As custodian you act as the fiduciary which means you have to handle the money in a “prudent manner” so margin, futures trading, horse racing and sports betting are probably not OK.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
Bank CD rates keep going up!
2yr. Inflation Floater CDs
Maturity - 11/28/2007
12 month Change in CPI + .85%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 5.54% (September's CPI change, payable December)
LaSalle Bank, NA Cusip TBA
LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A Cusip TBA
4yr. Inflation Floater CDs
Maturity - 11/27/2009
12 month Change in CPI + 1.40%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 6.09% (September's CPI change, payable December)
LaSalle Bank, NA Cusip TBA
LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A Cusip TBA
10yr. Inflation Floater CDs (Multipliers)
Maturity - 11/27/2015
12 month Change in CPI X 1.55%
(Multiply the year 12month change times 1.55)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 7.27% (September's CPI change, payable December)
LaSalle Bank, NA Cusip TBA
LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A Cusip TBA
FDIC Insured
(each bank separately insured)
*Estate Feature*
**Available until 11am ET 11/23**
Settle - 11/28
call me today 1(888)599-1188
Maturity - 11/28/2007
12 month Change in CPI + .85%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 5.54% (September's CPI change, payable December)
LaSalle Bank, NA Cusip TBA
LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A Cusip TBA
4yr. Inflation Floater CDs
Maturity - 11/27/2009
12 month Change in CPI + 1.40%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 6.09% (September's CPI change, payable December)
LaSalle Bank, NA Cusip TBA
LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A Cusip TBA
10yr. Inflation Floater CDs (Multipliers)
Maturity - 11/27/2015
12 month Change in CPI X 1.55%
(Multiply the year 12month change times 1.55)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 7.27% (September's CPI change, payable December)
LaSalle Bank, NA Cusip TBA
LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A Cusip TBA
FDIC Insured
(each bank separately insured)
*Estate Feature*
**Available until 11am ET 11/23**
Settle - 11/28
call me today 1(888)599-1188
Monday, November 14, 2005
you ask about an UGMA (UGH-MA )
Uniform Gift to Minors (UGMA)
A Uniform Gift to Minors (UGMA) otherwise known as an UGH-MA is an account you can set up for your children or and underage person. The IRS allows you to transfer (gift) up to $11,000 per child. It is simple for your broker to set up and does not involve any lawyers. The advantages are that the money is taxed at the child’s rate under the child’s social security number. You can establish and account for anyone underage ,a grandchild and god child and nephew and so on .You are the custodian and make all decisions related to the account until the child comes of age, which in most states is 18. Once the minor reaches legal age they take control of the account and it is there to do as they please yes that means anything so Paris Hilton watch out. As custodian you act as the fiduciary which means you have to handle the money in a “prudent manner” so margin, futures trading, horse racing and sports betting are probably not OK.
James
1(888)599-1188
A Uniform Gift to Minors (UGMA) otherwise known as an UGH-MA is an account you can set up for your children or and underage person. The IRS allows you to transfer (gift) up to $11,000 per child. It is simple for your broker to set up and does not involve any lawyers. The advantages are that the money is taxed at the child’s rate under the child’s social security number. You can establish and account for anyone underage ,a grandchild and god child and nephew and so on .You are the custodian and make all decisions related to the account until the child comes of age, which in most states is 18. Once the minor reaches legal age they take control of the account and it is there to do as they please yes that means anything so Paris Hilton watch out. As custodian you act as the fiduciary which means you have to handle the money in a “prudent manner” so margin, futures trading, horse racing and sports betting are probably not OK.
James
1(888)599-1188
Friday, November 11, 2005
new new news
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter as companies and consumers spent more in the longest expansion in eight years. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose to a 4 1/2-year high.
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher said inflation is a growing danger and the bank ``can always bite,'' the clearest hint to date that an increase in interest rates may come as early as next month.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer confidence emerged from a funk. With gasoline prices moderating, people are feeling better -- but not ebullient -- about the economy's prospects and their own.
AMMAN, Jordan (CNN) -- Calling the al Qaeda in Iraq leader a "lowlife," Jordanians on Thursday flooded the nation's capital in bitter protest of the triple suicide bombings that shook the city a day earlier and killed at least 56 people, most of Arab descent.
DAMASCUS (Reuters) - President Bashar al-Assad promised on Thursday to cooperate with a U.N. inquiry into the killing of a former Lebanese prime minister, but said Syria would not sacrifice its own national interest in the process.
Iran’s bellicosity would seem to be an indication that the country is closer to its goal of possessing nuclear weapons than Western intelligence organizations might think. I believe it’s likely that one day in the not-too-distant future, Iran will launch a sneak nuclear attack on Israel in an effort to eradicate that country, and as many Jew as possible, from the face of the earth. (Klaus Rohrich canadafreepress)
The Chinese government last week issued new guidelines that seek to limit the use of cell phones for text messaging. (worldtribune,com)
When Merck & Co. won the New Jersey Vioxx trial last week, it faced a plaintiff who had taken the painkiller for only two months.Now, a state-court judge is upping the ante. Carol Higbee, the New Jersey judge overseeing 3,500 Vioxx cases in Merck's home state, told lawyers in a private conference on Monday that she wants the next 10 or so trials in her courtroom to involve plaintiffs who took the drug for 18 months or longer. (WSJ)
Thomson First Call, Wall Street analysts expect oil prices to average about $56 per barrel and fall no further than $46. (BARRONS)
Approximately 40% of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shuttered because of hurricane damage, according to Bruce Lanni, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons.(BARRONS))
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher said inflation is a growing danger and the bank ``can always bite,'' the clearest hint to date that an increase in interest rates may come as early as next month.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer confidence emerged from a funk. With gasoline prices moderating, people are feeling better -- but not ebullient -- about the economy's prospects and their own.
AMMAN, Jordan (CNN) -- Calling the al Qaeda in Iraq leader a "lowlife," Jordanians on Thursday flooded the nation's capital in bitter protest of the triple suicide bombings that shook the city a day earlier and killed at least 56 people, most of Arab descent.
DAMASCUS (Reuters) - President Bashar al-Assad promised on Thursday to cooperate with a U.N. inquiry into the killing of a former Lebanese prime minister, but said Syria would not sacrifice its own national interest in the process.
Iran’s bellicosity would seem to be an indication that the country is closer to its goal of possessing nuclear weapons than Western intelligence organizations might think. I believe it’s likely that one day in the not-too-distant future, Iran will launch a sneak nuclear attack on Israel in an effort to eradicate that country, and as many Jew as possible, from the face of the earth. (Klaus Rohrich canadafreepress)
The Chinese government last week issued new guidelines that seek to limit the use of cell phones for text messaging. (worldtribune,com)
When Merck & Co. won the New Jersey Vioxx trial last week, it faced a plaintiff who had taken the painkiller for only two months.Now, a state-court judge is upping the ante. Carol Higbee, the New Jersey judge overseeing 3,500 Vioxx cases in Merck's home state, told lawyers in a private conference on Monday that she wants the next 10 or so trials in her courtroom to involve plaintiffs who took the drug for 18 months or longer. (WSJ)
Thomson First Call, Wall Street analysts expect oil prices to average about $56 per barrel and fall no further than $46. (BARRONS)
Approximately 40% of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shuttered because of hurricane damage, according to Bruce Lanni, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons.(BARRONS))
boogey man
November 11, 2005
Ok, that’s right so I didn’t take my own advise .I put the inflection point for the market turn around October 20-21 and it looks more like it started around October 27th about a week late like everything else that has happened to the market since Katrina. Now the process that began since September of creating a massive oversold condition will reverse itself. The market should spend the next few weeks undoing some of the damage.
Mortgage rates and other fixed income rates continued there measured climb ,so if your buying a house you could be feeling the pinch ,but if your buying fixed income ,weather it is bank CD’s, tax free bonds ,corporate bonds the higher yields will defiantly increase your available gas money. We are again hearing about the specter of the boogey man inflation, yes obviously there are short term pressures with oil prices but the consumer adjust very quickly. The recent decline in gas prices should spur stronger confidence and consumer demand. Productivity growth continues to outpace commodity price increases and as long as that continues I don’t see any real threat of inflation.
People have asked me what do if anything the results of Tuesday’s elections suggest for the investment climate. Without knowing much about the Virginia Governors race at lest in New Jersey and California the vested interests resisted change .My motto when it comes to politics is simple “the problem is you live here” another words people get the government they want and deserve. So the status Quo seems fine for most people. I would be careful about taking to much of a message from this election; there doesn’t seem to be much of a mandate either way.
Oil prices have slid the last several weeks, moving lower than they were before hurricane season. In the short run energy stocks may offer some good value, but the big picture has hardly changed, the threat of terror attacks, China and India continue to increase their demand for energy, the US economy continues to grow at a good pace and refining capacity and other oil infrastructure severely constrained. Don’t vest too much faith in the argument that the weather will be mild, thus cutting demand .The weather will do what the weather will do and winter is winter. This is the energy decade and energy with remain the top issue for several years to come .Short term weakness in energy related equities may hurt short term returns in your accounts but this should be viewed as a long term buying opportunity.
What is very interesting is that the Japanese economy in the face of higher energy prices grew stronger than expected. The Japanese economy is considered to be very sensitive to energy prices, yet it surprised a lot of people and persevered. If Japan can grow it certainly bodes well for the US economy and the US stock market.
James
Ok, that’s right so I didn’t take my own advise .I put the inflection point for the market turn around October 20-21 and it looks more like it started around October 27th about a week late like everything else that has happened to the market since Katrina. Now the process that began since September of creating a massive oversold condition will reverse itself. The market should spend the next few weeks undoing some of the damage.
Mortgage rates and other fixed income rates continued there measured climb ,so if your buying a house you could be feeling the pinch ,but if your buying fixed income ,weather it is bank CD’s, tax free bonds ,corporate bonds the higher yields will defiantly increase your available gas money. We are again hearing about the specter of the boogey man inflation, yes obviously there are short term pressures with oil prices but the consumer adjust very quickly. The recent decline in gas prices should spur stronger confidence and consumer demand. Productivity growth continues to outpace commodity price increases and as long as that continues I don’t see any real threat of inflation.
People have asked me what do if anything the results of Tuesday’s elections suggest for the investment climate. Without knowing much about the Virginia Governors race at lest in New Jersey and California the vested interests resisted change .My motto when it comes to politics is simple “the problem is you live here” another words people get the government they want and deserve. So the status Quo seems fine for most people. I would be careful about taking to much of a message from this election; there doesn’t seem to be much of a mandate either way.
Oil prices have slid the last several weeks, moving lower than they were before hurricane season. In the short run energy stocks may offer some good value, but the big picture has hardly changed, the threat of terror attacks, China and India continue to increase their demand for energy, the US economy continues to grow at a good pace and refining capacity and other oil infrastructure severely constrained. Don’t vest too much faith in the argument that the weather will be mild, thus cutting demand .The weather will do what the weather will do and winter is winter. This is the energy decade and energy with remain the top issue for several years to come .Short term weakness in energy related equities may hurt short term returns in your accounts but this should be viewed as a long term buying opportunity.
What is very interesting is that the Japanese economy in the face of higher energy prices grew stronger than expected. The Japanese economy is considered to be very sensitive to energy prices, yet it surprised a lot of people and persevered. If Japan can grow it certainly bodes well for the US economy and the US stock market.
James
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
some late news
(Google's Print Library Project)…company bent on unilaterally changing copyright law to their benefit and in turn denying publishers and authors the rights granted to them by the U.S. Constitution. (Washington Times)
A worm found spreading via America Online's Instant Messenger is carrying a nastier punch than usual, a security company has warned. (CNET News.com )
Rice said she and others who grew up in Alabama during the height of Parks' activism might not have realized her impact on their lives, "but I can honestly say that without Mrs. Parks, I probably would not be standing here today as secretary of state." (AP)
The Prince of Wales will try to persuade George W Bush and Americans of the merits of Islam this week because he thinks the United States has been too intolerant of the religion since September 11. (News telegraph.com)
PARIS — Tension mounted Tuesday in the troubled suburbs of Paris, after angry youths torched cars, garbage bins and even a primary school in rioting that resulted the arrest of 13 people. Officials in Paris and Clichy-sous-Bois, a heavily muslim suburb to the northeast where the accidental deaths of two teenagers triggered the riots that began Thursday, worked to prevent a sixth night of violence. (FOXNEWS)
Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin called a series of emergency meetings with government officials throughout the day Thursday, including one with Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been accused of inflaming the crisis with his tough talk and police tactics. Sarkozy has called troublemakers "scum" and vowed to "clean out" troubled suburbs. (FOXNEWS)
"We are witnessing a sort of shock wave that is spreading across the country," Mr. Gaudin said, noting that the violence appeared to be sliding away from Paris and worsening elsewhere in France. (WSJ)
UNITED NATIONS, Oct. 26 - More than 4,500 companies took part in the United Nations oil-for-food program and more than half of them paid illegal surcharges and kickbacks to Saddam Hussein, according to the independent committee investigating the program. The country with the most companies involved in the program was Russia, followed by France, the committee says in a report to be released Thursday. The inquiry was led by Paul A. Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (NYT)
DUBAI, U.A.E. (AP) - Deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein accepted an 11th-hour offer to flee into exile weeks ahead of the U.S.-led 2003 invasion but Arab League officials scuttled the proposal, officials in Dubai said.
CAIRO, Egypt -- Arab governments remained silent Thursday as international condemnation grew over a call by Iran's new president for Israel to be destroyed.(Washington Post)
(CNSNews.com) - Former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson, conducting another round of media appearances related to the leaking of his wife's CIA cover, used a National Press Club appearance Monday to assert that he is no "commie liberal sympathizer."
(CNSNews.com) - Greenpeace sailed to a world heritage site in the southern Philippines to raise awareness about climate change on Monday -- and struck a submerged coral reef, damaging its ship. The activist group has agreed to pay a fine of almost $7,000 after its flagship, the Rainbow Warrior II, hit the reef at the Tubbataha national marine park in the Sulu Sea.
Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for every hour of work, increased at a 4.1 percent annual rate almost twice the pace of the previous three months. Labor costs fell 0.5 percent, the first decline in more than a year. (Bloomberg)
IBM has created a chip that can slow down light, the latest advance in an industry wide effort to develop computers that will use only a fraction of the energy of today's machines. (CNET)
The publisher of a financial newsletter told Maryland's second highest court Wednesday that he should not be forced to disclose his subscriber list and other information sought by an Arizona company seeking those it says made defamatory online comments.(AP)
A worm found spreading via America Online's Instant Messenger is carrying a nastier punch than usual, a security company has warned. (CNET News.com )
Rice said she and others who grew up in Alabama during the height of Parks' activism might not have realized her impact on their lives, "but I can honestly say that without Mrs. Parks, I probably would not be standing here today as secretary of state." (AP)
The Prince of Wales will try to persuade George W Bush and Americans of the merits of Islam this week because he thinks the United States has been too intolerant of the religion since September 11. (News telegraph.com)
PARIS — Tension mounted Tuesday in the troubled suburbs of Paris, after angry youths torched cars, garbage bins and even a primary school in rioting that resulted the arrest of 13 people. Officials in Paris and Clichy-sous-Bois, a heavily muslim suburb to the northeast where the accidental deaths of two teenagers triggered the riots that began Thursday, worked to prevent a sixth night of violence. (FOXNEWS)
Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin called a series of emergency meetings with government officials throughout the day Thursday, including one with Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been accused of inflaming the crisis with his tough talk and police tactics. Sarkozy has called troublemakers "scum" and vowed to "clean out" troubled suburbs. (FOXNEWS)
"We are witnessing a sort of shock wave that is spreading across the country," Mr. Gaudin said, noting that the violence appeared to be sliding away from Paris and worsening elsewhere in France. (WSJ)
UNITED NATIONS, Oct. 26 - More than 4,500 companies took part in the United Nations oil-for-food program and more than half of them paid illegal surcharges and kickbacks to Saddam Hussein, according to the independent committee investigating the program. The country with the most companies involved in the program was Russia, followed by France, the committee says in a report to be released Thursday. The inquiry was led by Paul A. Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (NYT)
DUBAI, U.A.E. (AP) - Deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein accepted an 11th-hour offer to flee into exile weeks ahead of the U.S.-led 2003 invasion but Arab League officials scuttled the proposal, officials in Dubai said.
CAIRO, Egypt -- Arab governments remained silent Thursday as international condemnation grew over a call by Iran's new president for Israel to be destroyed.(Washington Post)
(CNSNews.com) - Former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson, conducting another round of media appearances related to the leaking of his wife's CIA cover, used a National Press Club appearance Monday to assert that he is no "commie liberal sympathizer."
(CNSNews.com) - Greenpeace sailed to a world heritage site in the southern Philippines to raise awareness about climate change on Monday -- and struck a submerged coral reef, damaging its ship. The activist group has agreed to pay a fine of almost $7,000 after its flagship, the Rainbow Warrior II, hit the reef at the Tubbataha national marine park in the Sulu Sea.
Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for every hour of work, increased at a 4.1 percent annual rate almost twice the pace of the previous three months. Labor costs fell 0.5 percent, the first decline in more than a year. (Bloomberg)
IBM has created a chip that can slow down light, the latest advance in an industry wide effort to develop computers that will use only a fraction of the energy of today's machines. (CNET)
The publisher of a financial newsletter told Maryland's second highest court Wednesday that he should not be forced to disclose his subscriber list and other information sought by an Arizona company seeking those it says made defamatory online comments.(AP)
Friday, November 04, 2005
Inflation Bond Gets Big Rate Increase
2yr. Inflation Floater CDs
12 month Change in CPI + .65%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 5.34% (September's CPI change)
· Matures 11/16/2007
Cusip- 51804GXR1 LaSalle Bank, NA
Cusip- 518037DF0LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A
5yr. Inflation Floater CDs
12 month Change in CPI + 1.40%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 6.09% (September's CPI change)
· Matures 11/16/2010
Cusip- 51804GXS9 LaSalle Bank, NA
Cusip- 518037DJ8 LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A
10yr. Inflation Floater CDs
12 month Change in CPI + 1.75%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 6.44% (September's CPI change)
· Matures 11/16/2015
Cusip- 51804GXT7 LaSalle Bank, NA
Cusip- 518037DH6 LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A
FDIC Insured (each bank separately insured)
Estate Feature
Available until 11am ET 11/10
Settle - 11/16
5yr. Inflation Floater Notes
12 month Change in CPI + 1.46%
1st coupon = 6.15% (September's CPI change)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
Maturity - 11/15/2010
Settle - 11/10/2005
Cusip - 41013NXV5
Offered @ 99.25
Estate Feature
Aa3/AA+
10yr. Inflation Floater Notes
12 month Change in CPI + 1.81%
1st coupon = 6.50% (September's CPI change)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
Maturity - 11/15/2015
Settle - 11/10/2005
Cusip - 41013NXX1
Offered @ 98.80
Estate Feature
Aa3/AA+
7yr. Inflation Floater Notes
12 month Change in CPI + 1.90%
1st coupon = 5.54% (August's CPI change)
2nd coupon = 6.59% (August's CPI change)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
Maturity - 12/15/2012
Settle - 11/17/2005
Cusip - 78490FWF2
Offered @ 99
**No Estate Feature**
A2/A
This material is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instrument. Information included is believed to be reliable, but LaSalle Broker Dealer Services Division ('LaSalle') does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Any prices reflected herein are indicative and are subject to change at any time without notice. Please note that product suitability must be determined for each individual investor.
LaSalle Broker Dealer Services Division is comprised of divisions from LaSalle Bank N.A. (Member FDIC) and its wholly owned nonbank subsidiary, LaSalle Financial Services, Inc. (member NASD/SIPC)
call me 1(888)599-1188
12 month Change in CPI + .65%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 5.34% (September's CPI change)
· Matures 11/16/2007
Cusip- 51804GXR1 LaSalle Bank, NA
Cusip- 518037DF0LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A
5yr. Inflation Floater CDs
12 month Change in CPI + 1.40%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 6.09% (September's CPI change)
· Matures 11/16/2010
Cusip- 51804GXS9 LaSalle Bank, NA
Cusip- 518037DJ8 LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A
10yr. Inflation Floater CDs
12 month Change in CPI + 1.75%
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
1st Coupon = 6.44% (September's CPI change)
· Matures 11/16/2015
Cusip- 51804GXT7 LaSalle Bank, NA
Cusip- 518037DH6 LaSalle Bank Midwest N.A
FDIC Insured (each bank separately insured)
Estate Feature
Available until 11am ET 11/10
Settle - 11/16
5yr. Inflation Floater Notes
12 month Change in CPI + 1.46%
1st coupon = 6.15% (September's CPI change)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
Maturity - 11/15/2010
Settle - 11/10/2005
Cusip - 41013NXV5
Offered @ 99.25
Estate Feature
Aa3/AA+
10yr. Inflation Floater Notes
12 month Change in CPI + 1.81%
1st coupon = 6.50% (September's CPI change)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
Maturity - 11/15/2015
Settle - 11/10/2005
Cusip - 41013NXX1
Offered @ 98.80
Estate Feature
Aa3/AA+
7yr. Inflation Floater Notes
12 month Change in CPI + 1.90%
1st coupon = 5.54% (August's CPI change)
2nd coupon = 6.59% (August's CPI change)
Resets monthly, Pays monthly
Maturity - 12/15/2012
Settle - 11/17/2005
Cusip - 78490FWF2
Offered @ 99
**No Estate Feature**
A2/A
This material is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instrument. Information included is believed to be reliable, but LaSalle Broker Dealer Services Division ('LaSalle') does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Any prices reflected herein are indicative and are subject to change at any time without notice. Please note that product suitability must be determined for each individual investor.
LaSalle Broker Dealer Services Division is comprised of divisions from LaSalle Bank N.A. (Member FDIC) and its wholly owned nonbank subsidiary, LaSalle Financial Services, Inc. (member NASD/SIPC)
call me 1(888)599-1188
Friday, October 28, 2005
big news this week
Baghdad: Two and a half years after the toppling of dictator Saddam Hussein, Iraq has voted in favour of a new democratic constitution, the country's electoral commission announced here Tuesday. (new.kerala.com)
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in the final months of his 18-year tenure atop the U.S. central bank, said economic forecasting models should be used with care and that data are important in shaping policy.
``Alan Greenspan has set the standard for excellence in economic policy making,'' Bernanke said yesterday. ``If I am confirmed to this position, my first priority will be to maintain continuity with the policies and policy strategies established during the Greenspan years.'' Oct. 26 (Bloomberg)
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew 9.4 percent in the third quarter as rising wages spurred consumer spending and the government encouraged investment in coal mines and railways
Cindy Sheehan, the so-called "peace mom" on a crusade to end U.S. involvement in the Iraq war, is publicly blasting Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., for her continued support of the ongoing conflict. (world net daily)
Indiana guard Stephen Jackson believes the NBA's new ban on bling- bling is racially motivated, but says he will abide by the rules. (AP)
Rigid labour markets and excessive red tape are deterring US investment in Europe and pose a "huge danger" to the continent's economy, Fred Smith, chief executive of FedEx, has warned. (MSNBC)
WASHINGTON, Oct. 19 (UPI) -- A vocal House Republican is calling for a new probe into what he says is a "witch-hunt" by defense officials against a Sept. 11 intelligence whistleblower. Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Penn., told United Press International that officials at the Defense Intelligence Agency, or DIA, had "conducted a deliberate campaign of character assassination" against the whistleblower, retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer. Shaffer has said that a highly classified Pentagon data-mining project he worked on, codenamed Able Danger, identified the ringleaders of the Sept. 11 terror attacks as linked to al-Qaida more than a year before they hijacked four planes and crashed them, killing nearly 3,000 people.
UNITED NATIONS - A U.N. investigator, Detlev Mehlis, set the stage yesterday for increased international pressure on Syria, saying there is "converging evidence" that the Baathist regime in Damascus - including President al-Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat - was involved in the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, and that there is evidence that Mr. al-Assad himself had threatened Hariri. (NY SUN)
based on bank statements, Iraqi government documents and testimony from former Iraqi officials, found that (British lawmaker George) Galloway had received eight oil allocations totaling 23 million barrels from 1999 to 2003. It also found that Galloway's wife earned about $150,000 from one of the allocations. The report also asserts that payments totaling more than $1.6 million were paid to Saddam's regime in connection with the oil sales and a charity Galloway founded. (Mary Speck from The Congressional Quarterly)
UNITED NATIONS — More than 2,000 companies paid about $1.8 billion in illicit kickbacks and surcharges to Saddam Hussein's (search) government through extensive manipulation of the U.N. oil-for-food program in Iraq, according to key findings of a U.N.-backed investigation obtained by The Associated Press .
the Banque Nationale de Paris S.A., known as BNP, which held the U.N. oil-for-food escrow account, had a dual role and did not disclose fully to the United Nations the firsthand knowledge it acquired about the financial relationships that fostered the payment of illegal surcharges. (FOX NEWS)
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - After watching shares of CBOT Holdings Inc. more than double in value in their first days of trading, officials at rival exchanges that are still privately held may feel it is time for an initial public offering of their own, experts said. (Scott Malone, Reuters)
We surprised ourselves this quarter," Google CEO Eric Schmidt said during a Thursday interview. "Business was much stronger than I expected." (AP)
Demand has grown to the point where Toyota plans to raise annual production of hybrids to 400,000 vehicles next year from 300,000 this year. (AP)
October 27, 2005 -- J.P. Morgan Chase is rolling out an E-ZPass-styled credit card to capture the giant world of small cash transactions at movies, drug stores, delis and fast-food drive-throughs. (NY POST)
October 27, 2005 -- A top New York Stock Exchange official evaded questions from senators yesterday who asked him why the Big Board had blocked the listing of Life Sciences Research, a controversial medical testing company, the day the firm was to start trading. (NY POST)
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in the final months of his 18-year tenure atop the U.S. central bank, said economic forecasting models should be used with care and that data are important in shaping policy.
``Alan Greenspan has set the standard for excellence in economic policy making,'' Bernanke said yesterday. ``If I am confirmed to this position, my first priority will be to maintain continuity with the policies and policy strategies established during the Greenspan years.'' Oct. 26 (Bloomberg)
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew 9.4 percent in the third quarter as rising wages spurred consumer spending and the government encouraged investment in coal mines and railways
Cindy Sheehan, the so-called "peace mom" on a crusade to end U.S. involvement in the Iraq war, is publicly blasting Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., for her continued support of the ongoing conflict. (world net daily)
Indiana guard Stephen Jackson believes the NBA's new ban on bling- bling is racially motivated, but says he will abide by the rules. (AP)
Rigid labour markets and excessive red tape are deterring US investment in Europe and pose a "huge danger" to the continent's economy, Fred Smith, chief executive of FedEx, has warned. (MSNBC)
WASHINGTON, Oct. 19 (UPI) -- A vocal House Republican is calling for a new probe into what he says is a "witch-hunt" by defense officials against a Sept. 11 intelligence whistleblower. Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Penn., told United Press International that officials at the Defense Intelligence Agency, or DIA, had "conducted a deliberate campaign of character assassination" against the whistleblower, retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer. Shaffer has said that a highly classified Pentagon data-mining project he worked on, codenamed Able Danger, identified the ringleaders of the Sept. 11 terror attacks as linked to al-Qaida more than a year before they hijacked four planes and crashed them, killing nearly 3,000 people.
UNITED NATIONS - A U.N. investigator, Detlev Mehlis, set the stage yesterday for increased international pressure on Syria, saying there is "converging evidence" that the Baathist regime in Damascus - including President al-Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat - was involved in the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, and that there is evidence that Mr. al-Assad himself had threatened Hariri. (NY SUN)
based on bank statements, Iraqi government documents and testimony from former Iraqi officials, found that (British lawmaker George) Galloway had received eight oil allocations totaling 23 million barrels from 1999 to 2003. It also found that Galloway's wife earned about $150,000 from one of the allocations. The report also asserts that payments totaling more than $1.6 million were paid to Saddam's regime in connection with the oil sales and a charity Galloway founded. (Mary Speck from The Congressional Quarterly)
UNITED NATIONS — More than 2,000 companies paid about $1.8 billion in illicit kickbacks and surcharges to Saddam Hussein's (search) government through extensive manipulation of the U.N. oil-for-food program in Iraq, according to key findings of a U.N.-backed investigation obtained by The Associated Press .
the Banque Nationale de Paris S.A., known as BNP, which held the U.N. oil-for-food escrow account, had a dual role and did not disclose fully to the United Nations the firsthand knowledge it acquired about the financial relationships that fostered the payment of illegal surcharges. (FOX NEWS)
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - After watching shares of CBOT Holdings Inc. more than double in value in their first days of trading, officials at rival exchanges that are still privately held may feel it is time for an initial public offering of their own, experts said. (Scott Malone, Reuters)
We surprised ourselves this quarter," Google CEO Eric Schmidt said during a Thursday interview. "Business was much stronger than I expected." (AP)
Demand has grown to the point where Toyota plans to raise annual production of hybrids to 400,000 vehicles next year from 300,000 this year. (AP)
October 27, 2005 -- J.P. Morgan Chase is rolling out an E-ZPass-styled credit card to capture the giant world of small cash transactions at movies, drug stores, delis and fast-food drive-throughs. (NY POST)
October 27, 2005 -- A top New York Stock Exchange official evaded questions from senators yesterday who asked him why the Big Board had blocked the listing of Life Sciences Research, a controversial medical testing company, the day the firm was to start trading. (NY POST)
BOT,bling-bling, Google and I think we just got Bernanked
October 27, 2005
Happy Halloween,
I know you ask, what happened to the rally that was supposed to happen? Looks like the market once again has lost its mojo . We got ”Bernanked” I suspect, no it is not the new NBA dress code .It is simply that fact that after 18 years of Greenspeak ,the new chairman of the FED is operating under the Napoleonic code of guilt until proven innocence. Bond markets seem to be looking for a more energetic interest rate increaser. In the world of FED watchers he is well know, and know for his formulated systematic “black box” approach unlike Greenspan’s tinker and see method but in the real world he is hardly a house hold name, if you can figure out how to pronounce it. I prefer to judge him on the “duck test” ,if he walks like a duck ,talks like a duck he is a duck .He looks like a FED chief, sounds like a FED chief so he will probably make a good FED chief.
My fear at the moment is that we have not finished a sell off with a selling climax or rallied strongly from a much oversold position. The market cycle has gotten into a habit of taking a pause at each hurricane and we seem once again to be stuck in no were land. On the plus side financials continue to rally, IPO’s abound and mergers and acquisitions are many fold. If the investment banking business is brisk an Wall Street Profits are brisk then it is usually not long before the markets starts to drive up ward.
Many of you have asked me , “ hey dude why the waves on you’re website” ?
The Elliott Wave Theory was the work of R.N. Elliott, who observed more than a half-century ago that stock market movements unfold in a series of rhythmic patterns which are based on a natural progression of shifts in mass investor psychology. As market participants vacillate between greed and fear, price patterns develop. These price patterns are called “waves”.
I am a practitioner of my own brand of the “Elliott Wave Theory”. I am not a purist but I subscribe to the basic principles behind the Elliott Wave Theory. The Elliott Wave Theory interprets market actions in terms of recurrent price structures. Basically, Market cycles (WAVES) are composed of two major types of Wave: Impulse Wave and Corrective Wave. For every impulse wave, it can be sub-divided into 5 - wave structure (1-2-3-4-5), while for corrective wave, it can be sub-divided into 3 - wave structures (a-b-c).In this fashion the Elliott Wave Theory tracks the ebbs and flows of the market.
The most difficult part of Elliott Wave analysis is correctly labeling and counting the waves, another words trying to figure out what wave pattern you are in and were you are in that wave pattern. Like most forms of investing hind site is always 20/20.
In order to better ascertain were on the wave I am, I have coupled Elliott wave theory with Point and Figure charting ,mind you this is a hybrid trading system : Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X's and O's that represent filtered price movements over time. Their distinctive look may be alien at first to people who are more familiar with traditional price bar charts but once people learn the basics of P&F charts they usually become hooked.
There are several advantages to using P&F charts instead of the more traditional bar or candlestick charts. P&F charts automatically:
Eliminate the insignificant price movements that often make bar charts appear 'noisy.'
Remove the often misleading effects of time from the analysis process.
Make recognizing support/resistance levels much easier.
Make trend line recognition a 'no-brainer'.
Help you stay focused on the important long-term price developments.
James Foytlin
1(888)599-1188 toll free
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Happy Halloween,
I know you ask, what happened to the rally that was supposed to happen? Looks like the market once again has lost its mojo . We got ”Bernanked” I suspect, no it is not the new NBA dress code .It is simply that fact that after 18 years of Greenspeak ,the new chairman of the FED is operating under the Napoleonic code of guilt until proven innocence. Bond markets seem to be looking for a more energetic interest rate increaser. In the world of FED watchers he is well know, and know for his formulated systematic “black box” approach unlike Greenspan’s tinker and see method but in the real world he is hardly a house hold name, if you can figure out how to pronounce it. I prefer to judge him on the “duck test” ,if he walks like a duck ,talks like a duck he is a duck .He looks like a FED chief, sounds like a FED chief so he will probably make a good FED chief.
My fear at the moment is that we have not finished a sell off with a selling climax or rallied strongly from a much oversold position. The market cycle has gotten into a habit of taking a pause at each hurricane and we seem once again to be stuck in no were land. On the plus side financials continue to rally, IPO’s abound and mergers and acquisitions are many fold. If the investment banking business is brisk an Wall Street Profits are brisk then it is usually not long before the markets starts to drive up ward.
Many of you have asked me , “ hey dude why the waves on you’re website” ?
The Elliott Wave Theory was the work of R.N. Elliott, who observed more than a half-century ago that stock market movements unfold in a series of rhythmic patterns which are based on a natural progression of shifts in mass investor psychology. As market participants vacillate between greed and fear, price patterns develop. These price patterns are called “waves”.
I am a practitioner of my own brand of the “Elliott Wave Theory”. I am not a purist but I subscribe to the basic principles behind the Elliott Wave Theory. The Elliott Wave Theory interprets market actions in terms of recurrent price structures. Basically, Market cycles (WAVES) are composed of two major types of Wave: Impulse Wave and Corrective Wave. For every impulse wave, it can be sub-divided into 5 - wave structure (1-2-3-4-5), while for corrective wave, it can be sub-divided into 3 - wave structures (a-b-c).In this fashion the Elliott Wave Theory tracks the ebbs and flows of the market.
The most difficult part of Elliott Wave analysis is correctly labeling and counting the waves, another words trying to figure out what wave pattern you are in and were you are in that wave pattern. Like most forms of investing hind site is always 20/20.
In order to better ascertain were on the wave I am, I have coupled Elliott wave theory with Point and Figure charting ,mind you this is a hybrid trading system : Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X's and O's that represent filtered price movements over time. Their distinctive look may be alien at first to people who are more familiar with traditional price bar charts but once people learn the basics of P&F charts they usually become hooked.
There are several advantages to using P&F charts instead of the more traditional bar or candlestick charts. P&F charts automatically:
Eliminate the insignificant price movements that often make bar charts appear 'noisy.'
Remove the often misleading effects of time from the analysis process.
Make recognizing support/resistance levels much easier.
Make trend line recognition a 'no-brainer'.
Help you stay focused on the important long-term price developments.
James Foytlin
1(888)599-1188 toll free
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
Why the Waves on the website?
Why the Waves on the website?
The Elliott Wave Theory was the work of R.N. Elliott, who observed more than a half-century ago that stock market movements unfold in a series of rhythmic patterns which are based on a natural progression of shifts in mass investor psychology. As market participants vacillate between greed and fear, price patterns develop. These price patterns are called “waves”.
I am a practitioner of my own brand of the “Elliott Wave Theory”. I am not a purist but I subscribe to the basic principles behind the Elliott Wave Theory. The Elliott Wave Theory interprets market actions in terms of recurrent price structures. Basically, Market cycles (WAVES) are composed of two major types of Wave: Impulse Wave and Corrective Wave. For every impulse wave, it can be sub-divided into 5 - wave structure (1-2-3-4-5), while for corrective wave, it can be sub-divided into 3 - wave structures (a-b-c).In this fashion the Elliott Wave Theory tracks the ebbs and flows of the market.
The most difficult part of Elliott Wave analysis is correctly labeling and counting the waves, another words trying to figure out what wave pattern you are in and were you are in that wave pattern. Like most forms of investing hind site is always 20/20.
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
newest news
The core inflation rate hasn't accelerated since March, and U.S. Treasuries rose because the report suggested companies are having little success passing along higher fuel costs to consumers. (Bloomberg)
``There is no sign of an immediate pass through of energy to core prices, but consumers spent with abandon considering their lack of confidence in the continued health of the economy,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. (Bloomberg)..you say what?
October 11, 2005 -- The NASD said it fined eight brokerages, including U.S. units of Prudential PLC and Lord Abbett & Co., almost $7.8 million for taking kickbacks from mutual funds. Commonwealth Financial Network, Mutual Service Corp., Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., Lord Abbett Distributor LLC and four Prudential units steered clients into preferred funds in return for payments, the NASD said today in a statement. In return, the fund firms sent their trading business to the brokerages, the regulator said. (NY POST)
WASHINGTON - Concern is mounting over improper financial dealings between the world's largest "wealth management" company, UBS, and Cuba, as American officials probing the transactions said yesterday that $3.9 billion in laundered American currency may have landed in personal accounts controlled by the Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro. (NY SUN)
When, in April 2003, American troops liberating Iraq found $762 million in American cash in hideouts belonging to Saddam Hussein, the banknotes were traced to UBS and the ECI program. In the process of probing the origins of the Iraqi cash - which UBS has told congressional investigators was initially sent to the Central Bank of Iran - American investigators subsequently discovered that the Swiss bank had also provided $3.9 billion in American currency for Cuba, $1 billion for Iran, $30 million for Libya, and less than $1 million for Yugoslavia. Cuba, Iran, and Libya appear on the State Department's official list of state sponsors of terrorism. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - A former aide to Secretary-General Annan who previously served as France's ambassador to the United Nations, Jean-Bernard Merimee, was captured yesterday in Paris as part of a French investigation into the oil-for-food program. (NY SUN)
WASHINGTON - The Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as a central player in ongoing investigations into possible money laundering by the world's largest "wealth management" firm, UBS, as congressional staff disclosed yesterday that $762 million in American currency controlled by Saddam Hussein may have made its way from the Swiss bank to Iraq via the Central Bank of Iran. (NY SUN)
Oct. 11, 2005 — The original informant who prompted the terror alert on New York City's subways last week is sticking to his story, and there is no basis to conclude the threat was a hoax, sources involved in the investigation of the plot told ABC News.
(CNSNews.com) - A former president of the New Orleans City Council and member of the Orleans Levee Board blames corruption "down to the bone" and "unbelievable ineptness" for the loss of life and injuries during and after Hurricane Katrina.
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Refco Inc., the broker reeling from a bad-debt scandal, filed for bankruptcy court protection and agreed to sell its futures-trading business to a group led by J.C. Flowers & Co. for $768 million.
``There is no sign of an immediate pass through of energy to core prices, but consumers spent with abandon considering their lack of confidence in the continued health of the economy,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. (Bloomberg)..you say what?
October 11, 2005 -- The NASD said it fined eight brokerages, including U.S. units of Prudential PLC and Lord Abbett & Co., almost $7.8 million for taking kickbacks from mutual funds. Commonwealth Financial Network, Mutual Service Corp., Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., Lord Abbett Distributor LLC and four Prudential units steered clients into preferred funds in return for payments, the NASD said today in a statement. In return, the fund firms sent their trading business to the brokerages, the regulator said. (NY POST)
WASHINGTON - Concern is mounting over improper financial dealings between the world's largest "wealth management" company, UBS, and Cuba, as American officials probing the transactions said yesterday that $3.9 billion in laundered American currency may have landed in personal accounts controlled by the Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro. (NY SUN)
When, in April 2003, American troops liberating Iraq found $762 million in American cash in hideouts belonging to Saddam Hussein, the banknotes were traced to UBS and the ECI program. In the process of probing the origins of the Iraqi cash - which UBS has told congressional investigators was initially sent to the Central Bank of Iran - American investigators subsequently discovered that the Swiss bank had also provided $3.9 billion in American currency for Cuba, $1 billion for Iran, $30 million for Libya, and less than $1 million for Yugoslavia. Cuba, Iran, and Libya appear on the State Department's official list of state sponsors of terrorism. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - A former aide to Secretary-General Annan who previously served as France's ambassador to the United Nations, Jean-Bernard Merimee, was captured yesterday in Paris as part of a French investigation into the oil-for-food program. (NY SUN)
WASHINGTON - The Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as a central player in ongoing investigations into possible money laundering by the world's largest "wealth management" firm, UBS, as congressional staff disclosed yesterday that $762 million in American currency controlled by Saddam Hussein may have made its way from the Swiss bank to Iraq via the Central Bank of Iran. (NY SUN)
Oct. 11, 2005 — The original informant who prompted the terror alert on New York City's subways last week is sticking to his story, and there is no basis to conclude the threat was a hoax, sources involved in the investigation of the plot told ABC News.
(CNSNews.com) - A former president of the New Orleans City Council and member of the Orleans Levee Board blames corruption "down to the bone" and "unbelievable ineptness" for the loss of life and injuries during and after Hurricane Katrina.
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Refco Inc., the broker reeling from a bad-debt scandal, filed for bankruptcy court protection and agreed to sell its futures-trading business to a group led by J.C. Flowers & Co. for $768 million.
supply and demand
October 17th, 2005
Hello,
What’s it going to take to get this market going? The good news continues to ad up even though you would never know it.
Yes the FED frets over inflation, but you don’t have to be a Nobel prize winner to know that New Orleans is a major shipping port in USA and to take it out of service raises more than oil and natural gas prices, include coffee, and lumber and many other commodities as well as the destruction to fishing and housing, and industry in the gulf region, all increase pricing pressures. Weather this is the beginning of a sustained period of inflation remains to be seen. As anyone who buys gas a lot over the last several months knows that energy prices can be quite volatile. In the long run it may be meaningless. Productivity growth may simply absorb increased energy prices. I do think we are in a period of prolonged increase in energy prices, but as we have seen in the past, increases in efficiency of energy use, last for ever but take time to implement. The out sized profits in the energy business will sooner or later be converted into investment into the energy infrastructure. It is import to point out raising prices in themselves do not necessarily mean inflation; sometimes it is just that demand is much greater than supply. Strong demand and low supply push prices up (law of supply and demand). Supply can also be constrained, not only by a dissipating asset but by foolish policies of regulation and taxation or just plain poor business practices. To be inflationary prices must increase in excess of excess demand. I am not really sure that is currently the case, so like I said the jury is still out on inflation.
I know you have all been distracted by a potential pandemic of bird flu, energy crisis, the war on terror, pictures of Karl Rove’s garage and Monday night football. You may have simply not noticed that we are near the anniversary of the 1987 October 19th stock market crash. We also had a mini crash in 1997 on the very same date. Since that time the first 3 weeks or so of October have been very scary. There will be some kind of a catalyst that will turn this market around in a big way .What exactly the catalyst will be I am not sure, but sure as Halloween always comes at the end of October, the market turns and takes off.
Is this becoming a lost decade for stock investing? After all we are starting to look like the market will be down for the first times ever for a full 10 years? Folks as with inflation the jury is still out but if the past is any guide the last 4 years of any decade seem to be the sweet spot. After all look at the roaring 80’s and 90’s the market in both looked rather pathetic the first 5 years then as they say the rest was history.
James
Hello,
What’s it going to take to get this market going? The good news continues to ad up even though you would never know it.
Yes the FED frets over inflation, but you don’t have to be a Nobel prize winner to know that New Orleans is a major shipping port in USA and to take it out of service raises more than oil and natural gas prices, include coffee, and lumber and many other commodities as well as the destruction to fishing and housing, and industry in the gulf region, all increase pricing pressures. Weather this is the beginning of a sustained period of inflation remains to be seen. As anyone who buys gas a lot over the last several months knows that energy prices can be quite volatile. In the long run it may be meaningless. Productivity growth may simply absorb increased energy prices. I do think we are in a period of prolonged increase in energy prices, but as we have seen in the past, increases in efficiency of energy use, last for ever but take time to implement. The out sized profits in the energy business will sooner or later be converted into investment into the energy infrastructure. It is import to point out raising prices in themselves do not necessarily mean inflation; sometimes it is just that demand is much greater than supply. Strong demand and low supply push prices up (law of supply and demand). Supply can also be constrained, not only by a dissipating asset but by foolish policies of regulation and taxation or just plain poor business practices. To be inflationary prices must increase in excess of excess demand. I am not really sure that is currently the case, so like I said the jury is still out on inflation.
I know you have all been distracted by a potential pandemic of bird flu, energy crisis, the war on terror, pictures of Karl Rove’s garage and Monday night football. You may have simply not noticed that we are near the anniversary of the 1987 October 19th stock market crash. We also had a mini crash in 1997 on the very same date. Since that time the first 3 weeks or so of October have been very scary. There will be some kind of a catalyst that will turn this market around in a big way .What exactly the catalyst will be I am not sure, but sure as Halloween always comes at the end of October, the market turns and takes off.
Is this becoming a lost decade for stock investing? After all we are starting to look like the market will be down for the first times ever for a full 10 years? Folks as with inflation the jury is still out but if the past is any guide the last 4 years of any decade seem to be the sweet spot. After all look at the roaring 80’s and 90’s the market in both looked rather pathetic the first 5 years then as they say the rest was history.
James
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
more "Kumbayah crap"
WASHINGTON - The American government is demanding that Saudi Arabia account for its distribution of hate material to American mosques, as the State Department pressed Saudi officials for answers last week and as the Senate later this month plans to investigate the propagation of radical Wahhabism on American shores. (NY SUN)
Iran was today accused by Britain of supplying Iraqi insurgents with the technology and explosives to kill its soldiers in the south of the country. A senior government official, briefing correspondents in London, said that there was evidence that the Iranians were in contact with insurgent groups fighting coalition forces in Iraq.
(http://www.guardian.co.uk)
UNITED NATIONS — United Nations investigators scrambling to discover the extent of a bribery scandal spreading out from the organization's procurement department may soon be looking toward the building's 38th floor — the U.N's executive offices.( Claudia Rosett and George Russell)
"It all circles back to fears of inflation and fears of further rate increases" by the Federal Reserve, said Larry Peruzzi, and equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- Amid growing concerns about bird flu spreading to humans, the Bush administration says it plans to bolster vaccine production in the U.S., purchase huge quantities of antiviral drugs and lay out a detailed system to coordinate federal, state and local response efforts to a pandemic. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration opposes a bailout of municipal bondholders on the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, Treasury Secretary John Snow told Congress. (WSJ)
Democrats need to cut the “Kumbayah crap” from their rhetoric, James Carville said Thursday night.
WASHINGTON - The world's largest "wealth management" firm, UBS, will be investigated by Congress for possibly laundering money for two state sponsors of terrorism, Cuba and Iran, lawmakers here told The New York Sun.
BERLIN – Conservative leader Angela Merkel confirmed a coalition deal that will make her Germany's first female chancellor under the terms of a power-sharing agreement that would end Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder's seven years in office. (WSJ)
“If Schröder was a sprinter, Merkel is a long-distance runner,” says Wolfgang Nowak, head of the Alfred Herrhausen Society, a think-tank run by Deutsche Bank. She is considered extremely methodical, going through all the options before making a decision. Insiders call her a “learning machine”. And she has certainly learned a lot since Helmut Kohl picked her out of obscurity in 1991, not least from Mr Schröder’s often frustrated efforts to reform the economy.(the Ecomomist)
Will post-war Germany’s second grand coalition be a success? If history is any guide, a new marriage of elephants would neither disappoint nor over-perform. The first grand coalition, in 1966-69, worked through quite an impressive legislative agenda: emergency legislation, …(the Economist)
NEW YORK -- Refco Inc. said it discovered through an internal review that the company was owed about $430 million by an entity controlled by Chairman and Chief Executive Phillip Bennett, who has repaid the receivable, including accrued interest, in cash. Refco also said that Mr. Bennett is taking a leave of absence, at the request of Refco's board. Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President William Sexton, who previously planned to leave the company, agreed to remain at the financial-service company as CEO. (WSJ)
October 10, 2005 -- Giant Verizon is stepping up its battle to win control of wireless Internet business from a group of rivals offering popular Wi-Fi access. Verizon's effort comes in the wake of Philadelphia's government-backed effort to make the entire city a Wi-Fi hotspot — an area in which anyone could get on to the Internet without wires (NY POST)
Three explosive devices found in a courtyard between two Georgia Tech dormitories on the East Campus Monday morning were part of a "terrorist act," an Atlanta police official said. (http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=70306 )
According to most reports, Joel Hinrichs III was a young man with a history of depression who used a homemade explosive device to commit suicide just 100 yards or so from the school’s football stadium, which was filled with over 80,000 people at the time. Officials were quick to call the incident a suicide, but rumors and reports of Hinrichs’ attempts to buy large quantities of ammonium nitrate and ties to the Muslim community have raised a lot of questions and the answers thus far are not forthcoming. (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2005/10/10/publiceye/entry931118.shtml )
Boys and young men in the key demographic group reported watching a whopping 24 percent fewer films in the all-important summer cinema season in 2005 than they did over the same period in 2003, consumer research firm Online Testing eXchange (OTX) said. "The perception among young male moviegoers that there wasn't much to see his year was a difficult barrier to overcome, regardless of price," said Vincent Bruzzese of OTX. (AFP)
Iran was today accused by Britain of supplying Iraqi insurgents with the technology and explosives to kill its soldiers in the south of the country. A senior government official, briefing correspondents in London, said that there was evidence that the Iranians were in contact with insurgent groups fighting coalition forces in Iraq.
(http://www.guardian.co.uk)
UNITED NATIONS — United Nations investigators scrambling to discover the extent of a bribery scandal spreading out from the organization's procurement department may soon be looking toward the building's 38th floor — the U.N's executive offices.( Claudia Rosett and George Russell)
"It all circles back to fears of inflation and fears of further rate increases" by the Federal Reserve, said Larry Peruzzi, and equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- Amid growing concerns about bird flu spreading to humans, the Bush administration says it plans to bolster vaccine production in the U.S., purchase huge quantities of antiviral drugs and lay out a detailed system to coordinate federal, state and local response efforts to a pandemic. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration opposes a bailout of municipal bondholders on the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, Treasury Secretary John Snow told Congress. (WSJ)
Democrats need to cut the “Kumbayah crap” from their rhetoric, James Carville said Thursday night.
WASHINGTON - The world's largest "wealth management" firm, UBS, will be investigated by Congress for possibly laundering money for two state sponsors of terrorism, Cuba and Iran, lawmakers here told The New York Sun.
BERLIN – Conservative leader Angela Merkel confirmed a coalition deal that will make her Germany's first female chancellor under the terms of a power-sharing agreement that would end Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder's seven years in office. (WSJ)
“If Schröder was a sprinter, Merkel is a long-distance runner,” says Wolfgang Nowak, head of the Alfred Herrhausen Society, a think-tank run by Deutsche Bank. She is considered extremely methodical, going through all the options before making a decision. Insiders call her a “learning machine”. And she has certainly learned a lot since Helmut Kohl picked her out of obscurity in 1991, not least from Mr Schröder’s often frustrated efforts to reform the economy.(the Ecomomist)
Will post-war Germany’s second grand coalition be a success? If history is any guide, a new marriage of elephants would neither disappoint nor over-perform. The first grand coalition, in 1966-69, worked through quite an impressive legislative agenda: emergency legislation, …(the Economist)
NEW YORK -- Refco Inc. said it discovered through an internal review that the company was owed about $430 million by an entity controlled by Chairman and Chief Executive Phillip Bennett, who has repaid the receivable, including accrued interest, in cash. Refco also said that Mr. Bennett is taking a leave of absence, at the request of Refco's board. Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President William Sexton, who previously planned to leave the company, agreed to remain at the financial-service company as CEO. (WSJ)
October 10, 2005 -- Giant Verizon is stepping up its battle to win control of wireless Internet business from a group of rivals offering popular Wi-Fi access. Verizon's effort comes in the wake of Philadelphia's government-backed effort to make the entire city a Wi-Fi hotspot — an area in which anyone could get on to the Internet without wires (NY POST)
Three explosive devices found in a courtyard between two Georgia Tech dormitories on the East Campus Monday morning were part of a "terrorist act," an Atlanta police official said. (http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=70306 )
According to most reports, Joel Hinrichs III was a young man with a history of depression who used a homemade explosive device to commit suicide just 100 yards or so from the school’s football stadium, which was filled with over 80,000 people at the time. Officials were quick to call the incident a suicide, but rumors and reports of Hinrichs’ attempts to buy large quantities of ammonium nitrate and ties to the Muslim community have raised a lot of questions and the answers thus far are not forthcoming. (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2005/10/10/publiceye/entry931118.shtml )
Boys and young men in the key demographic group reported watching a whopping 24 percent fewer films in the all-important summer cinema season in 2005 than they did over the same period in 2003, consumer research firm Online Testing eXchange (OTX) said. "The perception among young male moviegoers that there wasn't much to see his year was a difficult barrier to overcome, regardless of price," said Vincent Bruzzese of OTX. (AFP)
flu bug,Columbus and the 1987 crash and more "kumbayah crap"
October 6, 2005
Hello,
So here we are in October, and we all know that for some confluence of reasons perhaps it the season of Halloween but the market always seems to get “spooked” in a big way the first 2 weeks and then rebound strongly sometime during the end of the third week and begins the year ending rally. The rally that follows the October drop follows a first in first out principle with many of the leading sectors regaining there step proceeding the sell off. The sell off is market driven bigger than any single stock and global in scope. I have noticed this annual occurrence since October 19th 1987. So while we search for the market bottom and in celebration of new discoveries lets follow the lead of Columbus and sail west to go east another words, instead of panic selling in mid October lets capitalize on the yearly reoccurrence by looking to pick up shares in leading sectors on the cheap and as they say buy low and look to sell high. So what you ask would Columbus do?
Well in 1492, Columbus sailed the ocean blue….first he had a plan to find a direct route to the east ,for most it is simply a matter of financial security ,but you have to have a plan,2) he had perseverance ,short term set backs were no match for his long term vision ,he new what he had to do and he kept doing it ,we call this follow up 3)Columbus was also well diversified using three ships instead of one ,one large and two smaller and faster ships, when one ran aground the other pick up the slack, your portfolio should work the same 4) Columbus favored using ‘dead reckoning” instead of the strategy of coordinating points based on the position of the heavenly bodies. Columbus believed in knowing were you were and taking direct measurements form that point to identify were you are now. Investors can use the same to track their portfolio and understand where they are and what it will take to get were they want to be, instead of focusing on the stars.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
So here we are in October, and we all know that for some confluence of reasons perhaps it the season of Halloween but the market always seems to get “spooked” in a big way the first 2 weeks and then rebound strongly sometime during the end of the third week and begins the year ending rally. The rally that follows the October drop follows a first in first out principle with many of the leading sectors regaining there step proceeding the sell off. The sell off is market driven bigger than any single stock and global in scope. I have noticed this annual occurrence since October 19th 1987. So while we search for the market bottom and in celebration of new discoveries lets follow the lead of Columbus and sail west to go east another words, instead of panic selling in mid October lets capitalize on the yearly reoccurrence by looking to pick up shares in leading sectors on the cheap and as they say buy low and look to sell high. So what you ask would Columbus do?
Well in 1492, Columbus sailed the ocean blue….first he had a plan to find a direct route to the east ,for most it is simply a matter of financial security ,but you have to have a plan,2) he had perseverance ,short term set backs were no match for his long term vision ,he new what he had to do and he kept doing it ,we call this follow up 3)Columbus was also well diversified using three ships instead of one ,one large and two smaller and faster ships, when one ran aground the other pick up the slack, your portfolio should work the same 4) Columbus favored using ‘dead reckoning” instead of the strategy of coordinating points based on the position of the heavenly bodies. Columbus believed in knowing were you were and taking direct measurements form that point to identify were you are now. Investors can use the same to track their portfolio and understand where they are and what it will take to get were they want to be, instead of focusing on the stars.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
Financial crimes and misdemeanors in the news
WASHINGTON -- House Majority Leader Tom DeLay was indicted by a Texas grand jury for campaign-finance violations, shaking the capital's Republican leadership and aggravating fissures within the party that could unsettle its decade-long dominance of Congress. (WSJ)
HCA Inc. said Thursday it has been informed that the Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a formal order of investigation relating to trading of the company's securities. The announcement relates to the SEC's probe of stock sales made by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, whose family founded the company.(WSJ)
September 29, 2005 -- Twelve top investment banks and financial institutions have been told they must defend a lawsuit claiming they participated in an industrywide scheme to rig initial public offerings. (NY POST)
September 29, 2005 -- The accounting disaster at Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage guarantor already in the midst of a multiyear investigation of financial shenanigans, appears to be much worse than previously thought. Investigators now say that the $11 billion estimate of Fannie Mae's accounting gimmicks appears to be a best-case scenario. (NY POST)
The two men who founded Bayou Management LLC, the Connecticut hedge-fund firm that allegedly exaggerated results for years before closing shop unexpectedly in July without returning investors' money, are expected plead guilty to criminal fraud charges in federal court today, a person familiar with the matter said. (WSJ)
The relisting of Parmalat stock will cap the turnaround of the Italian company by government-appointed administrator Enrico Bondi. He took control of the company -- best known for producing milk with a long shelf life -- when it filed for bankruptcy protection in December 2003 after the discovery of a decade-long fraud allegedly masterminded by former executives. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- The money that led to the indictment this week of two Las Vegas pastors and the wife of one of them came from federal grants arranged by Sen. Harry Reid in September 2001, a Reid spokeswoman said Wednesday.
( http://www.reviewjournal.com)
A detailed lawsuit filed against Delphi Corp. by two state pension funds and one of Europe's biggest employee-pension funds alleges the auto-supplier's senior executives encouraged inventory deals with a bank and two other companies that artificially boosted profits from 1999 to 2002. (WSJ)
HCA Inc. said Thursday it has been informed that the Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a formal order of investigation relating to trading of the company's securities. The announcement relates to the SEC's probe of stock sales made by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, whose family founded the company.(WSJ)
September 29, 2005 -- Twelve top investment banks and financial institutions have been told they must defend a lawsuit claiming they participated in an industrywide scheme to rig initial public offerings. (NY POST)
September 29, 2005 -- The accounting disaster at Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage guarantor already in the midst of a multiyear investigation of financial shenanigans, appears to be much worse than previously thought. Investigators now say that the $11 billion estimate of Fannie Mae's accounting gimmicks appears to be a best-case scenario. (NY POST)
The two men who founded Bayou Management LLC, the Connecticut hedge-fund firm that allegedly exaggerated results for years before closing shop unexpectedly in July without returning investors' money, are expected plead guilty to criminal fraud charges in federal court today, a person familiar with the matter said. (WSJ)
The relisting of Parmalat stock will cap the turnaround of the Italian company by government-appointed administrator Enrico Bondi. He took control of the company -- best known for producing milk with a long shelf life -- when it filed for bankruptcy protection in December 2003 after the discovery of a decade-long fraud allegedly masterminded by former executives. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- The money that led to the indictment this week of two Las Vegas pastors and the wife of one of them came from federal grants arranged by Sen. Harry Reid in September 2001, a Reid spokeswoman said Wednesday.
( http://www.reviewjournal.com)
A detailed lawsuit filed against Delphi Corp. by two state pension funds and one of Europe's biggest employee-pension funds alleges the auto-supplier's senior executives encouraged inventory deals with a bank and two other companies that artificially boosted profits from 1999 to 2002. (WSJ)
Financial crimes and misdemeanors
October 4 2005
Hello,
Is there no shame? From the UN to the halls of congress to boardrooms from sea to shining sea corruption seems to be the order of the day. What’s an investor to do? Yes some actions are out and out criminality, some are solely the province of an isolated single individual, some are debates of accounting tactics and tax payments and some are simply wild eyes accusations. Is corruption at epidemic proportions or is it simply ingrained in many institutions in our society? Many institutions acting more like criminal enterprises thinly veiled in a cloak of legitimacy.
Stocks that play by the rules ,follow proper accounting procedures and keep shareholders and employees informed ,in the long run they have their stocks rewarded .Companies that over pay their executives, and don’t act in the best interest of shareholders and employees are in the long run looked at with suspicion and their stock prices are penalized. We all know the stories of World com ,lucent, AT&T ,Enron and so on many of these stocks are no longer with us or trading at very low valuations. It is important to stay calm and separate acts of fraud, bad management or poor business judgment. Remember General Motors not selling enough SUV’s with $3 a gallon gasoline is not corruption it is just very bad management.
How do you know what they say is true? First there are accounting standards that are practiced uniformly in most parts of the world. Standards have some differences country to country but are generally uniform in most of the industrialized world. Most exchanges are self regulatory bodies and have standards of there own that companies have to meet to remain listed on their exchange. There are state administrators and Federal regulators that demand certain level of compliance with regulation and companies must demonstrate compliance to the regulators as well as the exchanges. Companies hire auditors, who are liable for the company meeting the regulatory requirements. It is also important to note that bulletin board or penny stocks have almost NO requirements and some countries have historically weak compliance and enforcement, Japan, Italy, Brazil for instance and some countries like China have no standards and are currently trying to develop standards, policies and procedures. However an Italian or Japanese or Brazilian stock that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange has to meet NYSE standards, US standards and there own country standards. This is not to cast dispersions on certain countries or companies .The USA was a model for transparency until the Clinton Era scandals of the 1990’s ie.. Enron, World Com and well you know the story…
So again what’s an investor to do? I have some simple rules, they don’t inoculate you against everything but it is a good place to start.
1) Don’t buy stocks that don’t have audited financials,2) Over hyped CEO’s often lead to underperforming stocks,3) It is what they do not what they say,4) longer term consistency of earning and revenue growth,5) the companies articulated strategy has to make sense. 6) The stock is listed on a major exchange like the NYSE which has even higher standards. 7) A company’s openness to share information with shareholders. It is important to remember that there are over 8000 mutual funds and about 8000 stocks so the amount of financial crimes is rather small, but often spectacular.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Hello,
Is there no shame? From the UN to the halls of congress to boardrooms from sea to shining sea corruption seems to be the order of the day. What’s an investor to do? Yes some actions are out and out criminality, some are solely the province of an isolated single individual, some are debates of accounting tactics and tax payments and some are simply wild eyes accusations. Is corruption at epidemic proportions or is it simply ingrained in many institutions in our society? Many institutions acting more like criminal enterprises thinly veiled in a cloak of legitimacy.
Stocks that play by the rules ,follow proper accounting procedures and keep shareholders and employees informed ,in the long run they have their stocks rewarded .Companies that over pay their executives, and don’t act in the best interest of shareholders and employees are in the long run looked at with suspicion and their stock prices are penalized. We all know the stories of World com ,lucent, AT&T ,Enron and so on many of these stocks are no longer with us or trading at very low valuations. It is important to stay calm and separate acts of fraud, bad management or poor business judgment. Remember General Motors not selling enough SUV’s with $3 a gallon gasoline is not corruption it is just very bad management.
How do you know what they say is true? First there are accounting standards that are practiced uniformly in most parts of the world. Standards have some differences country to country but are generally uniform in most of the industrialized world. Most exchanges are self regulatory bodies and have standards of there own that companies have to meet to remain listed on their exchange. There are state administrators and Federal regulators that demand certain level of compliance with regulation and companies must demonstrate compliance to the regulators as well as the exchanges. Companies hire auditors, who are liable for the company meeting the regulatory requirements. It is also important to note that bulletin board or penny stocks have almost NO requirements and some countries have historically weak compliance and enforcement, Japan, Italy, Brazil for instance and some countries like China have no standards and are currently trying to develop standards, policies and procedures. However an Italian or Japanese or Brazilian stock that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange has to meet NYSE standards, US standards and there own country standards. This is not to cast dispersions on certain countries or companies .The USA was a model for transparency until the Clinton Era scandals of the 1990’s ie.. Enron, World Com and well you know the story…
So again what’s an investor to do? I have some simple rules, they don’t inoculate you against everything but it is a good place to start.
1) Don’t buy stocks that don’t have audited financials,2) Over hyped CEO’s often lead to underperforming stocks,3) It is what they do not what they say,4) longer term consistency of earning and revenue growth,5) the companies articulated strategy has to make sense. 6) The stock is listed on a major exchange like the NYSE which has even higher standards. 7) A company’s openness to share information with shareholders. It is important to remember that there are over 8000 mutual funds and about 8000 stocks so the amount of financial crimes is rather small, but often spectacular.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
in the news
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin held a press conference a little bit ago, and started losing control to a media pool assembled that was showing signs of panic, due to the previous incompetence in the region by the local and state government. Lt. Gen. Russel Honore stepped in and literally took over. ….Here's what he had to say: Male reporter: General, a little bit more about why that's happening this time, though, and did not have that last time... Honore: You are stuck on stupid. I'm not going to answer that question. We are going to deal with Rita. This is public information that people are depending on the government to put out. This is the way we've got to do it. So please. I apologize to you, but let's talk about the future. Rita is happening. And right now, we need to get good, clean information out to the people that they can use. And we can have a conversation on the side about the past, in a couple of months. (http://www.radioblogger.com/)
CNSNews.com) - The New Orleans police chief resigned abruptly on Tuesday, giving no reason. But as the Houston Chronicle reported, Police Superintendent Eddie Compass stepped aside on the same day that he and Mayor Ray Nagin were accused by the New Orleans Times-Picayune of embellishing stories of post-Katrina crime and mayhem at the Convention Center and Superdome.
It may be the oddest tale to emerge from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Armed dolphins, trained by the US military to shoot terrorists and pinpoint spies underwater, may be missing in the Gulf of Mexico. Experts who have studied the US navy's cetacean training exercises claim the 36 mammals could be carrying 'toxic dart' guns. Divers and surfers risk attack, they claim, from a species considered to be among the planet's smartest. The US navy admits it has been training dolphins for military purposes, but has refused to confirm that any are missing .(observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story)
Hillary Clinton was asked whether she favored curbs on the Internet, after the DRUDGE REPORT made headlines with coverage of her husband's affair with a White House intern. "We are all going to have to rethink how we deal with this, because there are all these competing values ... Without any kind of editing function or gatekeeping function, what does it mean to have the right to defend your reputation?" she said.(Matt Drudge)
(CNSNews.com) - Authorities in China, where at least three journalists have been jailed this year for political "crimes" involving the Internet, clamped down further at the weekend by introducing new regulations for online news services.
(CNSNews.com) - Following five years of United Nations control and billions of dollars of international aid, Kosovo is a lawless region "owned" by the Albanian mafia, characterized by continuing ethnic cleansing and subject to increasing infiltration by al Qaeda-linked Muslim jihadists, according to a whistleblower interviewed by Cybercast News Service.
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods rose a greater-than-expected 3.3 percent in August, rebounding from the biggest drop in 18 months, as businesses sought to rebuild stocks depleted by surging sales.
Orders rose in all categories except defense equipment.
The Federal Reserve's success in taming the economy's ups and downs may have also raised the risks of reckless investor behavior, Chairman Alan Greenspan said. (WSJ)
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, drawing on new research he has personally supervised, said American consumers have become enormously dependent on borrowing against their homes to fuel their spending, and that a rise in mortgage rates could trigger a spending pullback. Mr. Greenspan's new data show that borrowing against home values added a stunning $600 billion to consumers' spending power last year, equivalent to 7% of personal disposable income -- compared with 3% in 2000 and 1% in 1994 (WSJ)
Defying expectations, sales of previously owned homes rose in August to the second-highest level on record with home prices rising at the fastest pace in 26 years. The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes rose 2 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.29 million units, a sales pace that was exceeded only by an all-time high of 7.35 million units in June. (MARTIN CRUTSINGER AP)
NEW YORK -- This summer's back to back superstorms are proof positive we have entered a new period of "global warming emergency," artist/citizen Barbra Streisand warns.(Matt Drudge)
Although this has been an exceptional year in terms of the number of storms, there have so far not been as many as there were in 1995, when we had 19. There have been similarly active seasons dating back decades. In both 1960 and 1961 there were two Category 5 storms in the Atlantic region and in 1933 there were 21 storms. ( Julian Heming of the Met Office in Exeter)
If you discount Ophelia, which grazed the Carolinas, three hurricanes have so far made landfall over the US this year. In 1886, records show that there were seven. (Julian Heming of the Met Office in Exeter)
CNSNews.com) - The New Orleans police chief resigned abruptly on Tuesday, giving no reason. But as the Houston Chronicle reported, Police Superintendent Eddie Compass stepped aside on the same day that he and Mayor Ray Nagin were accused by the New Orleans Times-Picayune of embellishing stories of post-Katrina crime and mayhem at the Convention Center and Superdome.
It may be the oddest tale to emerge from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Armed dolphins, trained by the US military to shoot terrorists and pinpoint spies underwater, may be missing in the Gulf of Mexico. Experts who have studied the US navy's cetacean training exercises claim the 36 mammals could be carrying 'toxic dart' guns. Divers and surfers risk attack, they claim, from a species considered to be among the planet's smartest. The US navy admits it has been training dolphins for military purposes, but has refused to confirm that any are missing .(observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story)
Hillary Clinton was asked whether she favored curbs on the Internet, after the DRUDGE REPORT made headlines with coverage of her husband's affair with a White House intern. "We are all going to have to rethink how we deal with this, because there are all these competing values ... Without any kind of editing function or gatekeeping function, what does it mean to have the right to defend your reputation?" she said.(Matt Drudge)
(CNSNews.com) - Authorities in China, where at least three journalists have been jailed this year for political "crimes" involving the Internet, clamped down further at the weekend by introducing new regulations for online news services.
(CNSNews.com) - Following five years of United Nations control and billions of dollars of international aid, Kosovo is a lawless region "owned" by the Albanian mafia, characterized by continuing ethnic cleansing and subject to increasing infiltration by al Qaeda-linked Muslim jihadists, according to a whistleblower interviewed by Cybercast News Service.
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. orders for durable goods rose a greater-than-expected 3.3 percent in August, rebounding from the biggest drop in 18 months, as businesses sought to rebuild stocks depleted by surging sales.
Orders rose in all categories except defense equipment.
The Federal Reserve's success in taming the economy's ups and downs may have also raised the risks of reckless investor behavior, Chairman Alan Greenspan said. (WSJ)
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, drawing on new research he has personally supervised, said American consumers have become enormously dependent on borrowing against their homes to fuel their spending, and that a rise in mortgage rates could trigger a spending pullback. Mr. Greenspan's new data show that borrowing against home values added a stunning $600 billion to consumers' spending power last year, equivalent to 7% of personal disposable income -- compared with 3% in 2000 and 1% in 1994 (WSJ)
Defying expectations, sales of previously owned homes rose in August to the second-highest level on record with home prices rising at the fastest pace in 26 years. The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes rose 2 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.29 million units, a sales pace that was exceeded only by an all-time high of 7.35 million units in June. (MARTIN CRUTSINGER AP)
NEW YORK -- This summer's back to back superstorms are proof positive we have entered a new period of "global warming emergency," artist/citizen Barbra Streisand warns.(Matt Drudge)
Although this has been an exceptional year in terms of the number of storms, there have so far not been as many as there were in 1995, when we had 19. There have been similarly active seasons dating back decades. In both 1960 and 1961 there were two Category 5 storms in the Atlantic region and in 1933 there were 21 storms. ( Julian Heming of the Met Office in Exeter)
If you discount Ophelia, which grazed the Carolinas, three hurricanes have so far made landfall over the US this year. In 1886, records show that there were seven. (Julian Heming of the Met Office in Exeter)
just trying not to be"... stuck on stupid?"......
September 27, 2005
Hello,
Some sound advice was offered to all investors this week in the after math of hurricane Rita by National Guard Lt. General Russel Honore, when he asked rhetorically “You are stuck on stupid”? Often the stock market has a habit of making anyone feel that way. Wall Street firms JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs not to be out done are trying to factor the risk of global warming and climate change into your portfolio. Ask any Dinosaur how climate change can be detrimental to your health. As for me I would just be happy if some one could accurately predict the weather for tomorrow.
After the worst week in three months on Wall Street, there still seems a chance that September could finish positive for a change, considering the market sells off with higher oil prices and rallies when they subside. While Katrina took many by surprise in typical fashion lighting seldom strikes twice in the same spot and so Rita caused far less damage then was originally feared. Although there is much debate on the health of the oil industry in the gulf, the big issues are simple; the energy infrastructure in the USA has been significantly underinvested in for some time perhaps 40 years so there really is just not much room for “Murphy’s law” or a category 4-5 hurricane in the gulf.
Energy stocks like housing stocks seems to be operating under the, “if it can’t get any better than this, some cataclysmic event comes along that makes it even better”. All I have to say is that after 4 hurricanes in south Florida last year home prices showed enormous price appreciation. It is the same theme over and over again. My concern is that many of the home builders have traded off there highs significantly, this may be the signal of a coming slow down in housing or just another temporary consolidation, the jury is still out for the moment .Remember that in situations of over speculation things often look best just before the damn breaks, like in March of 2000 with the Tech and dot com bubble.
Rates look to keep rising as the FED seeks to temper the huge infusion of aid to the gulf region knowing that adding enormous amounts of liquidity should give the economy a bit of a sugar rush for the next several months.
And on a final note one look at the “new apprentice” it becomes obvious that Martha Stewart belongs in the kitchen. Don’t for get to check out my website www.jamesfoytlin.com and blog http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/ for updates.
James
Hello,
Some sound advice was offered to all investors this week in the after math of hurricane Rita by National Guard Lt. General Russel Honore, when he asked rhetorically “You are stuck on stupid”? Often the stock market has a habit of making anyone feel that way. Wall Street firms JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs not to be out done are trying to factor the risk of global warming and climate change into your portfolio. Ask any Dinosaur how climate change can be detrimental to your health. As for me I would just be happy if some one could accurately predict the weather for tomorrow.
After the worst week in three months on Wall Street, there still seems a chance that September could finish positive for a change, considering the market sells off with higher oil prices and rallies when they subside. While Katrina took many by surprise in typical fashion lighting seldom strikes twice in the same spot and so Rita caused far less damage then was originally feared. Although there is much debate on the health of the oil industry in the gulf, the big issues are simple; the energy infrastructure in the USA has been significantly underinvested in for some time perhaps 40 years so there really is just not much room for “Murphy’s law” or a category 4-5 hurricane in the gulf.
Energy stocks like housing stocks seems to be operating under the, “if it can’t get any better than this, some cataclysmic event comes along that makes it even better”. All I have to say is that after 4 hurricanes in south Florida last year home prices showed enormous price appreciation. It is the same theme over and over again. My concern is that many of the home builders have traded off there highs significantly, this may be the signal of a coming slow down in housing or just another temporary consolidation, the jury is still out for the moment .Remember that in situations of over speculation things often look best just before the damn breaks, like in March of 2000 with the Tech and dot com bubble.
Rates look to keep rising as the FED seeks to temper the huge infusion of aid to the gulf region knowing that adding enormous amounts of liquidity should give the economy a bit of a sugar rush for the next several months.
And on a final note one look at the “new apprentice” it becomes obvious that Martha Stewart belongs in the kitchen. Don’t for get to check out my website www.jamesfoytlin.com and blog http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/ for updates.
James
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
lots of news this week
Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer, an Army intelligence officer who worked on the program, said Thursday that before the Able Danger data was destroyed, he had briefed senior officials in the Pentagon and White House on ways to excise U.S. persons' names without losing the entire database. He said the Pentagon must have obliterated the data for another reason that it is not disclosing. .( By John M. Donnelly from The Congressional Quarterly)
The chart topping hip hop rapper star who used a network hurricane fundraiser to charge "George Bush doesn't care about black people" was loudly and lustily booed during last night's NFL kickoff show. The appearance of Kanye West, who was beamed into the Boston stadium via remote from Los Angeles, received a strongly negative response from the crowd. "The boos were thunderous and lasted for much of his number," reports the BOSTON GLOBE.
Red Cross workers arrived in New Orleans with enough food, water and blankets for thousands of Hurricane Katrina victims the night before levees broke and flooded the city, but were prevented from delivering the aid to stranded citizens by state officials."I'm told that they were ready as soon as the winds died down and the roads were passable, which means before the levees broke," Fox News Channel's Major Garrett reported Thursday.(NEWSMAX)
Americans used 4% less gasoline amid skyrocketing pump prices last week than they did the week before Hurricane Katrina hit, the federal government reported. But whether that indicates consumers have decided to conserve or merely that they couldn't find all the gasoline they wanted isn't clear. (WSJ)
KUWAIT (Reuters) – Wealthy OPEC nation Kuwait is donating $500 million worth of oil products and other humanitarian aid to its ally the United States to ease the impact of Hurricane Katrina, state news agency KUNA reported on Sunday."The humanitarian aid is oil products that the devastated (U.S.) states need in these circumstances, plus other humanitarian aid to lessen the devastation these three states have been subjected to," Energy Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah told KUNA.Sheikh Ahmad said the gesture was a duty toward a friend by the tiny Gulf Arab state which was liberated in 1991 by a U.S.-led multinational coalition from seven months of occupation by IraqThe minister, who is also the OPEC chief, was speaking after the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers. Tiny Kuwait controls nearly a tenth of global petroleum reserves.
“The floodgates would have blocked the flow of water from the Gulf of Mexico, through Lake Borgne, through the Rigolets [and Chef Mentuer] into Lake Pontchartrain,” declared Professor Gregory Stone, the James P. Morgan Distinguished Professor and Director of the Coastal Studies Institute of Louisiana State University. “This would likely have reduced storm surge coming from the Gulf and into the Lake Pontchartrain,” Professor Stone told Michael P. Tremoglie during an interview on September 6. The professor concluded, “[T]hese floodgates would have alleviated the flooding of New Orleans caused by Hurricane Katrina.”… Why was this project aborted? As the Times-Picayune wrote, “Those plans were abandoned after environmental advocates successfully sued to stop the projects as too damaging to the wetlands and the lake's eco-system.” (FrontPageMagazine.com)
"The inescapable conclusion from the committee's work is that the United Nations organization needs thorough reform -- and it needs it urgently," the report said (WSJ)
The document — the fourth report released by the IIC, headed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker— lays out a pattern of "illicit, unethical and corrupt behavior" that overwhelmed the United Nations. It criticizes Annan and slams his stewardship and management skills, as well as the oversight of the Security Council. (FOXNEWS)
An analysis of the confidential medical report on Yasser Arafat's death reveals three main possibilities as to the cause: poisoning, AIDS or an infection. (By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent, and AP)
WASHINGTON (AP) - A large solar flare was reported Wednesday and forecasters warned of potential electrical and communications disruptions. The flare was reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo. Significant solar eruptions are possible in the coming days and there could be disruptions in spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems, the agency said. "This flare, the fourth largest in the last 15 years, erupted just as the ... sunspot cluster was rotating onto the visible disk of the sun," said Larry Combs, solar forecaster at the center. The flare has affected some high-frequency communications on the sunlit side of Earth, NOAA reported.
"The equity research [analysts] question the investment bank's ability to accept stricter rating standards at the expense of revenues," wrote John Hoffmann, then head of research for Salomon Smith Barney, Citi's securities unit, to its banking boss Michael Carpenter in a 2002 memo. (NY POST)
The chart topping hip hop rapper star who used a network hurricane fundraiser to charge "George Bush doesn't care about black people" was loudly and lustily booed during last night's NFL kickoff show. The appearance of Kanye West, who was beamed into the Boston stadium via remote from Los Angeles, received a strongly negative response from the crowd. "The boos were thunderous and lasted for much of his number," reports the BOSTON GLOBE.
Red Cross workers arrived in New Orleans with enough food, water and blankets for thousands of Hurricane Katrina victims the night before levees broke and flooded the city, but were prevented from delivering the aid to stranded citizens by state officials."I'm told that they were ready as soon as the winds died down and the roads were passable, which means before the levees broke," Fox News Channel's Major Garrett reported Thursday.(NEWSMAX)
Americans used 4% less gasoline amid skyrocketing pump prices last week than they did the week before Hurricane Katrina hit, the federal government reported. But whether that indicates consumers have decided to conserve or merely that they couldn't find all the gasoline they wanted isn't clear. (WSJ)
KUWAIT (Reuters) – Wealthy OPEC nation Kuwait is donating $500 million worth of oil products and other humanitarian aid to its ally the United States to ease the impact of Hurricane Katrina, state news agency KUNA reported on Sunday."The humanitarian aid is oil products that the devastated (U.S.) states need in these circumstances, plus other humanitarian aid to lessen the devastation these three states have been subjected to," Energy Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah told KUNA.Sheikh Ahmad said the gesture was a duty toward a friend by the tiny Gulf Arab state which was liberated in 1991 by a U.S.-led multinational coalition from seven months of occupation by IraqThe minister, who is also the OPEC chief, was speaking after the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers. Tiny Kuwait controls nearly a tenth of global petroleum reserves.
“The floodgates would have blocked the flow of water from the Gulf of Mexico, through Lake Borgne, through the Rigolets [and Chef Mentuer] into Lake Pontchartrain,” declared Professor Gregory Stone, the James P. Morgan Distinguished Professor and Director of the Coastal Studies Institute of Louisiana State University. “This would likely have reduced storm surge coming from the Gulf and into the Lake Pontchartrain,” Professor Stone told Michael P. Tremoglie during an interview on September 6. The professor concluded, “[T]hese floodgates would have alleviated the flooding of New Orleans caused by Hurricane Katrina.”… Why was this project aborted? As the Times-Picayune wrote, “Those plans were abandoned after environmental advocates successfully sued to stop the projects as too damaging to the wetlands and the lake's eco-system.” (FrontPageMagazine.com)
"The inescapable conclusion from the committee's work is that the United Nations organization needs thorough reform -- and it needs it urgently," the report said (WSJ)
The document — the fourth report released by the IIC, headed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker— lays out a pattern of "illicit, unethical and corrupt behavior" that overwhelmed the United Nations. It criticizes Annan and slams his stewardship and management skills, as well as the oversight of the Security Council. (FOXNEWS)
An analysis of the confidential medical report on Yasser Arafat's death reveals three main possibilities as to the cause: poisoning, AIDS or an infection. (By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent, and AP)
WASHINGTON (AP) - A large solar flare was reported Wednesday and forecasters warned of potential electrical and communications disruptions. The flare was reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo. Significant solar eruptions are possible in the coming days and there could be disruptions in spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems, the agency said. "This flare, the fourth largest in the last 15 years, erupted just as the ... sunspot cluster was rotating onto the visible disk of the sun," said Larry Combs, solar forecaster at the center. The flare has affected some high-frequency communications on the sunlit side of Earth, NOAA reported.
"The equity research [analysts] question the investment bank's ability to accept stricter rating standards at the expense of revenues," wrote John Hoffmann, then head of research for Salomon Smith Barney, Citi's securities unit, to its banking boss Michael Carpenter in a 2002 memo. (NY POST)
sun spots in my eyes
September 12 2005
Hello,
While the country is still arguing about who’s fault the hurricane Katrina is ,I have moved on to new hurricanes and a more plausible explanation ; sun spots. For years science has studied these solar flares know to the laymen as sun spots. They have been credited with the bull market of the 1980’s and 1990’s, the end of the Second World War, the fall of the Roman Empire; Roger Maris hitting 61 home runs and on and on. Some studies suggest that the good performance in the stock market tracks certain sun spot phenomenon. It has been rumored that certain large Wall Street firms has devoted significant resources to studying solar flares effect on the market. My personal experience has been a bit more mixed. Sun spots seem to explain only the crazy market inconsistencies and So if things seem a bit off, stocks down when they should be up the next time you hear blame game, just think quietly to your self, it is all about sun spots.
First it was all about who to blame for Katrina, now its blame everything on Katrina. Company after company is rushing to tell us that its not bad management, accounting irregularities, lack of vision, or poor judgment. It is just good old mother nature reeking havoc to the unsuspecting masses, yea right.
As I said in the last email Semi’s still looked good, with their technical charts intact and the first week of September was surprisingly strong .Of coarse last week things went back to the normal September swoon and sold off. As I have said before the key to the market returning to more normal performance would be a sizable rally in the Semi conductors. I am still looking at weakness thru the 3rd week of October and then a substantial year end market rally.
Looking over the past couple of years it is becoming increasing clear that it is all about timing and asset mix, I can have 20 accounts with the same stocks and yet the performance could run the gamut from up 30% to down 25% all depending on the date of purchase and percentage of a particular asset. Energy has dominated the winners, but several times I have been under the impression that the sector has gotten way a head of itself. It looks to me that the pressure on energy prices stems more from underinvestment, restrictions and underdevelopment of the infrastructure to deliver the energy to the consumer not some depletion of reserves as many would have you believe. I think what is confusing to lot of people is that the long term trend of raising energy prices and raising energy stocks, yet short term, which could last several months the corrections are giving very strong sell signals ,later to reverse to a strong buy signal. The pricing mechanism of the stock market seems to still be off, no efficient market at work here and it can take some time to dig yourself out when a stock goes against you and can take sometime for a stock to move up for very obvious reasons.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
While the country is still arguing about who’s fault the hurricane Katrina is ,I have moved on to new hurricanes and a more plausible explanation ; sun spots. For years science has studied these solar flares know to the laymen as sun spots. They have been credited with the bull market of the 1980’s and 1990’s, the end of the Second World War, the fall of the Roman Empire; Roger Maris hitting 61 home runs and on and on. Some studies suggest that the good performance in the stock market tracks certain sun spot phenomenon. It has been rumored that certain large Wall Street firms has devoted significant resources to studying solar flares effect on the market. My personal experience has been a bit more mixed. Sun spots seem to explain only the crazy market inconsistencies and So if things seem a bit off, stocks down when they should be up the next time you hear blame game, just think quietly to your self, it is all about sun spots.
First it was all about who to blame for Katrina, now its blame everything on Katrina. Company after company is rushing to tell us that its not bad management, accounting irregularities, lack of vision, or poor judgment. It is just good old mother nature reeking havoc to the unsuspecting masses, yea right.
As I said in the last email Semi’s still looked good, with their technical charts intact and the first week of September was surprisingly strong .Of coarse last week things went back to the normal September swoon and sold off. As I have said before the key to the market returning to more normal performance would be a sizable rally in the Semi conductors. I am still looking at weakness thru the 3rd week of October and then a substantial year end market rally.
Looking over the past couple of years it is becoming increasing clear that it is all about timing and asset mix, I can have 20 accounts with the same stocks and yet the performance could run the gamut from up 30% to down 25% all depending on the date of purchase and percentage of a particular asset. Energy has dominated the winners, but several times I have been under the impression that the sector has gotten way a head of itself. It looks to me that the pressure on energy prices stems more from underinvestment, restrictions and underdevelopment of the infrastructure to deliver the energy to the consumer not some depletion of reserves as many would have you believe. I think what is confusing to lot of people is that the long term trend of raising energy prices and raising energy stocks, yet short term, which could last several months the corrections are giving very strong sell signals ,later to reverse to a strong buy signal. The pricing mechanism of the stock market seems to still be off, no efficient market at work here and it can take some time to dig yourself out when a stock goes against you and can take sometime for a stock to move up for very obvious reasons.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
in and out of the news
Louisiana disaster plan, pg 13, para 5 , dated 01/00'The primary means of hurricane evacuation will be personal vehicles. School and municipal buses, government-owned vehicles and vehicles provided by volunteer agencies may be used to provide transportation for individuals who lack transportation and require assistance in evacuating'...(Matt Drudge)
WALL STREET shuddered yesterday after Alan Greenspan, the United States’ central banker, warned American homebuyers that they risk a crash if they continue to drive property prices higher.(TIMES ON LINE)
J.D. Smith, a defense contractor who claims he worked on the technical side of the unit, code-named "Able Danger" (search), told reporters Friday that he helped gather open-source information (search), reported on government spending and helped generate charts associated with the unit's work. Able Danger was set up in the 1990s to track Al Qaeda activity worldwide. (FOXNEWS)
Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson prompted a firestorm of media outrage on Tuesday after he suggested that the Bush administration should assassinate a foreign leader who posed a threat to the U.S. - in this case, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. But when senior Clinton advisor George Stephanopoulos publicly argued for the same kind of assassination policy in 1997, the press voiced no objection at all. (NEWS MAX)
(CNSNews.com) - The al Qaeda terrorist network may be planning a terrorist attack in a major city in Asia as a bid to undermine investor confidence and cause serious economic damage, one of Europe's leading terrorist investigators has warned.
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - U.S. jets launched airstrikes Tuesday near the Syrian border, destroying three houses and killing a ``known terrorist,'' the U.S. military said. Iraqi authorities said fighting had broken out in the area between a tribe that supports foreign fighters and another that backs the government. (AP)
Washington (CNSNews.com) - The Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., the current home of hundreds of wounded veterans from the war in Iraq, has been the target of weekly anti-war demonstrations since March. The protesters hold signs that read "Maimed for Lies" and "Enlist here and die for Halliburton."
UNITED NATIONS - In a move hailed by American officials as "dramatic," and which has given hope to Syrian dissidents who aim to replace the Baath regime of Bashar Assad with a democracy, a U.N. investigator yesterday pointed to five former Lebanese security officials - all of whom have close ties to Syria - as possible suspects in the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri. (NY SUN)
A group led by New York financier Carl Icahn is considering making a tender offer to buy as much as 10% of Time Warner Inc., hoping to put more pressure on the media conglomerate to respond to Mr. Icahn's overtures (WSJ)
BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.N. investigators quizzed five senior pro-Syrian figures, including a top aide to Lebanon's president, on Tuesday as suspects in the February killing of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Lebanese police and U.N. investigators detained three former security chiefs in dawn raids, the first time they have implicated allies of Syria in the killing that shook Lebanon and hastened the departure of Syrian troops after three decades.
JERUSALEM – The arrests today of three pro-Syrian security chiefs over the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has many leaders, security officials and top journalists in Beirut who may be seen as threats to Damascus worried about possible reprisals against them – with some having already departed the country. (ARON KLIEN, World Net Daily)
UNITED NATIONS -- A sweeping yearlong probe of the Iraq oil-for-food program has concluded that the United Nations allowed "illicit, unethical, and corrupt behavior" to overwhelm the $64 billion operation, and must adopt sweeping reforms to reclaim its credibility before taking on such tasks again. (WSJ)
the issue is becoming the scale of corruption in the U.N.'s normal operations — and which individuals and corporations are reaping the benefits of a network of bribery and conspiracy that investigators have just begun to uncover. So far, those identities are still a mystery — but perhaps not for much longer. (FOXNEWS)
WALL STREET shuddered yesterday after Alan Greenspan, the United States’ central banker, warned American homebuyers that they risk a crash if they continue to drive property prices higher.(TIMES ON LINE)
J.D. Smith, a defense contractor who claims he worked on the technical side of the unit, code-named "Able Danger" (search), told reporters Friday that he helped gather open-source information (search), reported on government spending and helped generate charts associated with the unit's work. Able Danger was set up in the 1990s to track Al Qaeda activity worldwide. (FOXNEWS)
Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson prompted a firestorm of media outrage on Tuesday after he suggested that the Bush administration should assassinate a foreign leader who posed a threat to the U.S. - in this case, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. But when senior Clinton advisor George Stephanopoulos publicly argued for the same kind of assassination policy in 1997, the press voiced no objection at all. (NEWS MAX)
(CNSNews.com) - The al Qaeda terrorist network may be planning a terrorist attack in a major city in Asia as a bid to undermine investor confidence and cause serious economic damage, one of Europe's leading terrorist investigators has warned.
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - U.S. jets launched airstrikes Tuesday near the Syrian border, destroying three houses and killing a ``known terrorist,'' the U.S. military said. Iraqi authorities said fighting had broken out in the area between a tribe that supports foreign fighters and another that backs the government. (AP)
Washington (CNSNews.com) - The Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., the current home of hundreds of wounded veterans from the war in Iraq, has been the target of weekly anti-war demonstrations since March. The protesters hold signs that read "Maimed for Lies" and "Enlist here and die for Halliburton."
UNITED NATIONS - In a move hailed by American officials as "dramatic," and which has given hope to Syrian dissidents who aim to replace the Baath regime of Bashar Assad with a democracy, a U.N. investigator yesterday pointed to five former Lebanese security officials - all of whom have close ties to Syria - as possible suspects in the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri. (NY SUN)
A group led by New York financier Carl Icahn is considering making a tender offer to buy as much as 10% of Time Warner Inc., hoping to put more pressure on the media conglomerate to respond to Mr. Icahn's overtures (WSJ)
BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.N. investigators quizzed five senior pro-Syrian figures, including a top aide to Lebanon's president, on Tuesday as suspects in the February killing of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Lebanese police and U.N. investigators detained three former security chiefs in dawn raids, the first time they have implicated allies of Syria in the killing that shook Lebanon and hastened the departure of Syrian troops after three decades.
JERUSALEM – The arrests today of three pro-Syrian security chiefs over the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has many leaders, security officials and top journalists in Beirut who may be seen as threats to Damascus worried about possible reprisals against them – with some having already departed the country. (ARON KLIEN, World Net Daily)
UNITED NATIONS -- A sweeping yearlong probe of the Iraq oil-for-food program has concluded that the United Nations allowed "illicit, unethical, and corrupt behavior" to overwhelm the $64 billion operation, and must adopt sweeping reforms to reclaim its credibility before taking on such tasks again. (WSJ)
the issue is becoming the scale of corruption in the U.N.'s normal operations — and which individuals and corporations are reaping the benefits of a network of bribery and conspiracy that investigators have just begun to uncover. So far, those identities are still a mystery — but perhaps not for much longer. (FOXNEWS)
rally interupted
August 29th 2005
Hello,
With Katrina smashing into New Orleans, looks like I will have to put off my trip to the French quarter for another couple of months. Worse yet better batten down the hatches, September is by and large the worst month to own stocks historically. The historical data suggest that 30% of the time September is an up month, 70% of the time September is a down month. The average return is a loss of 1.31% making it the worst month of the year .Up months have produced an average return of 3.49% and losing moths have produced an average loss of about 4.69%. This makes September the worst month statistically, but as they say in baseball this could be one of the 3 in 10 that is actually up.
Taking a break from the, I told you so’s and blame game surrounding the after math of the hurricane, the, market looks more likely to continue its rally interrupted. By interrupted I refer to the summer rally that sprouted during the early days of June till the middle of July. If oil prices fall from there decade highs, and the FED decides enough is a enough two of the central features of the current environment that continue to put a lid on the markets at every attempt to rally will be subdued at lest temporarily.
What makes me optimistic is that the Semi conductors though unable to get going the last few weeks, continue to have their positive chart action intact. The Semi’s in the past have led the way to higher market highs. I am also very positive about the hurricane ,yes that’s right because in the past the after math of hurricanes have led a booming building trade and all the elements that feed the process. The negatives of coarse abound, the media and human nature have a tendency to view the world thru short term negatives, but long term the power will come back on, the rigs will start pumping. the ships will sail, the refineries will snap, crackle and pop and we might actually start to get some sensible energy policy once and for all.
James
Hello,
With Katrina smashing into New Orleans, looks like I will have to put off my trip to the French quarter for another couple of months. Worse yet better batten down the hatches, September is by and large the worst month to own stocks historically. The historical data suggest that 30% of the time September is an up month, 70% of the time September is a down month. The average return is a loss of 1.31% making it the worst month of the year .Up months have produced an average return of 3.49% and losing moths have produced an average loss of about 4.69%. This makes September the worst month statistically, but as they say in baseball this could be one of the 3 in 10 that is actually up.
Taking a break from the, I told you so’s and blame game surrounding the after math of the hurricane, the, market looks more likely to continue its rally interrupted. By interrupted I refer to the summer rally that sprouted during the early days of June till the middle of July. If oil prices fall from there decade highs, and the FED decides enough is a enough two of the central features of the current environment that continue to put a lid on the markets at every attempt to rally will be subdued at lest temporarily.
What makes me optimistic is that the Semi conductors though unable to get going the last few weeks, continue to have their positive chart action intact. The Semi’s in the past have led the way to higher market highs. I am also very positive about the hurricane ,yes that’s right because in the past the after math of hurricanes have led a booming building trade and all the elements that feed the process. The negatives of coarse abound, the media and human nature have a tendency to view the world thru short term negatives, but long term the power will come back on, the rigs will start pumping. the ships will sail, the refineries will snap, crackle and pop and we might actually start to get some sensible energy policy once and for all.
James
Friday, September 02, 2005
come out support the arts!!!!!
This show has been banned!
Kristine D. Paige and the Sound and Vision has been banned yes that’s right banned from performing at the Monroe Center in Hoboken. Law enforcement was threatened to be brought in and the show stopped. But our savior has arrived and in last minute through the kindness and generosity of Hudson County Art Supply a daring offer through great personal cost was made to host the event. The new venue just 2 short blocks from the Monroe Center,( simply park in the back for free at the Monroe Center and take the elevator up the hill from the light rail station to Jersey City Heights and walk straight up Congress Street). Come Saturday September 3rd starting around 9pm 38 Congress Street, Jersey City (yes it is safe, the only danger to you is the inspiration of Art and Music) and see what all the fuss is about. Don’t let our constitutional right of freedom of speech be trampled, join us and support the Sound and Vision the show, forced to flee its original venue but now relocated at 38 Congress Street ,Jersey City.
The Sound and Vision Show featuring 17 Paintings and 21 Sketches by Kristine D. Paige and Live music by Denise Barbarita
BE THERE
James & Kristine
(201)966-7788
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)