Thursday, September 30, 2004

Elvis will be spotted before the election.......

Stock Market basics…..

According to data from Ibbotson Associates Inc., large-company stocks returned 10.4 percent a year from 1925 through 2003 -- almost twice the 5.4 percent annual return for government bonds, and almost three times the 3.6 percent return for short-term Treasury bills. Inflation came in at 3 percent a year. (Bloomberg)

In the last five calendar years, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has been up 19.5 percent; down 10.1 percent, down 13 percent; down 23.4 percent, and up 26.4 percent. (Bloomberg)

In the woebegone 1970s, for instance, when the index suffered back-to-back declines of 17.4 percent in 1973 and 29.7 percent in 1974, it still finished the decade with a total return, including dividends, of 5.8 percent per year. (Bloomberg)

September 28th ,2004

Hello,
Jimmy Carter the hero and friend of villains and tyrannies all over the world and considered by many the most ineffectual president in the 20th century. No one is more a symbol of worshiping failure and ineptitude than Jimmy Carter. He institutionalized incompetence in the late 1970’s.Creator of the1970’s energy crisis and the accompanied malaise, certifier of all elections involving global criminality such as Jean Paul Aristide (Haiti), Fidel Castro (Cuba) and Hugo Chaves (Venezuela) amongst many. Perhaps his crowning achievement was the founding of a fundamentalist fascist Islamic state in Iran. Now Jimmy Carter has joined the ranks of al Quada in an attempt to undermine the 2004 election. His primary complaint is that is that felons in Florida are being disenfranchised and not being able to exercise the right to vote, don’t get any ideas McGreevey. No Jimmy felons can get elected but they cant vote, they lose that right when they fail to function in a social expectable manner or to quote Teresa Heinz Kerry , “ (act like a) scum bag” . But as you know Jimmy they can certainly run for office. Actually running for office is one of the few jobs you can get after a stint in the big house. I am getting more than a little board with someone who takes pride in, denying self determination to the masses and lending legitimacy to every too bit dictator in the world ,who’s only qualification is to be anti-American in the name of peace, love and understanding.

Back to the market, my thoughts are simple, with the US election looming and perhaps even more importantly the Iraqi election, and Afghanistan elections. Free elections in the mid east would be a near fatal blow to extremism. The Islamic extremists will do any thing to disrupt them. Add Iran’s ability to shot a nuclear missile perhaps into Europe and North Koreas lust to turn Japan into a nuclear waste land. Fear and War will dominate the market which puts a premium on Energy related issues and Defense issues. I know the large cap defense issues have been a bit of a bust, but smaller more focused issues have done quite well. In the long run I still view this oil thing as a bubble. Short term oil will continue to gain on a growing risk premium with the center of the battle shifting from Iraq to Iran. I did not think this new shift was going to hit so hard so fast. In the long run I still view this oil thing as a bubble. Remember higher prices encourage conservation and conservation becomes permanent. Conservation has a long term impact. OPEC is pumping the most in oil in 25 years. Oil often peaks in price in October. The world is much less dependant on oil than it once was. Remember oil would have to go to $100 per barrel to be were it was in real dollars in 1980.Anyway a lot of things look to be coming to a head in the next month to month and a half, so be careful out there.

James

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Anonymous said...

ey James,

How are you? Congratulation to your new office.
How is business going on?
I have finished my studies now with my thesis, (1,0 the best grade) and started to work last wednesday in Munich. It´s not bad to get a job, in this economical situation in Germany but it´s not the thing I always want to do. What about your girls? Are you still together with Linda or is there a new one? Ok, hope you are doing well, now I have got to work. Best regards to your father.

Bye

Willy