October 21, 2004
Hello,
Alright, alright I know the Red Sox won, remember they still have to win the World Series to break the curse of the bambino, and destroy the world. If the curse holds and the calendar is correct history tells us we have entered the seasonally favorable time of the year for investors. This period runs from the end of October to beginning of April, of coarse if the Red Sox win the World Series all bets are off.
So now we all know that according to Teresa Heinz Kerry that a real job is marrying a very rich man, and giving away money you never earned to a bunch of people how don’t deserve it….but being a school teacher in Texas is not. Apparently Teresa Heinz Kerry is referring to something similar to the world’s oldest profession as her profession.
Folks the Clintons Nationalized the production of flu Vaccine, with out nationalizing the cost of litigation. Without the proper profit margin and with added risk of lawsuits there is no incentive for Vaccine production. Vaccine production in the US dropped from 33 producers to 1 under the Clinton care arrangements.
On an interesting note Godzilla, the over grown Japanese lizard is 50 years old this month. Many investors already have been squished by Godzilla market the last several years. What is the Godzilla market? The Godzilla market is the dot com turns to dot bomb, corporate scandals, terrorism, higher oil prices, increasing interest rates, deflation, natural disasters and political uncertainty, like I said the only thing worse than this would be the Red Sox winning the World Series.
Why does the dollar continue to decline and what does it really mean? It seems the central diatribe of the mainstream media is that our economy is bad, there is too much debt, and Bush is hated. The mainstream media has pronounced the declining dollar to be symptomatic with failure, sounds rather ominous. The reality is far different. The declining dollar is more a symptom of low interest rates. Yes I know interest rates have been boosted by the FED, but they are still relatively low in historical terms. In fact long term rates have declined somewhat this year even with the FED raising rates. Because of the enormous stock market decline during the final year of the Clinton administration, The FED in 2000 was forced to flood the US economy with cheap money in an effort to stem the deflationary spiral that was beginning to take hold. Not wanting to repeat the mistakes of the past, Chairman Greenspan made the wise move to excessive easy credit. Unlike the 1930’s were raising rates and raising taxes started the(deflationary spiral)Great Depression or as Japan did in the late 1980’s also raising taxes and raising interest rates to defend their currency and their budget surplus. These actions pushed Japan over the edge into a deep deflationary spiral which they are still currently looking to escape. So low interest rates, tax cuts and printing money have contributed to a decline in the over valued dollar in an effort to fight off deflation. The decline in the dollar also makes the US manufacturing more competitive and there by threatens to undermine Europe’s exports, which the EU is highly dependent on. The weakness or strength in a currency is seldom a moral judgment it is simply a pricing mechanism of countries competitiveness, demographics, resources, economic cycle and so on.
James
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