April 3, 2005
Hello,
Well it is that time again, a time for new beginning. All is forgiven why even Bill Clinton is going to the Popes funeral, wow now that’s forgiveness. Spring is here and with spring it is opening day of baseball season. The season has started off right back where it ended last year with the Yankees playing the Red sox. The Days are longer, the birds are singing and harmony has returned. Well not quite, oil is signaling a move higher and geopolitical storm clouds are brewing. My experience on “Wall Street” has lead me to believe that the “street” often very significantly underestimates the geopolitical and home political risks in the markets. My point here is that “Wall Street” never takes politics seriously. I have said it often my self, “if politicians were so smart they would have a real job.” But we live in a time were politics have become very serious as witnessed by 9/11, very serious indeed. So what currently lies over the horizon is affecting us today. Will the seeds of freedom and democracy take root in the Middle East or will tyrannical revolutions over whelm more reasoned people’s quest for self determination? The rumor mill is ripe with tales of a coming invasion of Syria, or a naval blockade or Iran. Perhaps the social unrest in Egypt will spill over on the streets and turn to violence creating a global caliphate or cooler heads will prevail and Egypt like Iraq will one day raise the “lone finger of defiance” and vote them selves free from the yoke of tyranny. The same scenario holds true for most of the Middle East and much of the “greater stans” ie Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and so on and to a lesser extent Africa. Many would say where there is oil there is revolution, I would say however where there are tyrants there is revolution and where there are tyrants with oil there is potential for global conflict, which brings us back to you the investor and why energy stocks have out performed this year and will continue to do so.
Thank you again for all the referrals this last month
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
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