May 20, 2005
Hello,
Add one more thing to what every market needs….Transparency, liquidity, creditworthiness and Yankee victories. Funny the Yankee’s start to win and the market rallies. The Market seems to be signaling an end to the FED rate rising cycle. The data continues to suggest moderate growth, low inflation, a strengthening dollar, improved productivity and moderate job creation. Utilities continue to rally and growth stocks look to be back in vogue. The energy picture looks to be more a product of a refining capacity shortage than an energy shortage. Contrary to Wall Street conventional wisdom this is not the 1970’s, more like 1995-1996,where the “stealth” bear market of 1995 led to a significant rally in 1996 in technology stocks. With utilities telling us the interest rate raises are done and growth stocks back in favor, semiconductors after a long period of disfavor are once again leading the way .The Go-Go Days may be once again at hand.
Some clients have asked me how much money I should be putting away for retirement, charity, housing and so on. I have broken down income into some suggested spending and savings percentages; simply as a guideline everyone has a different situation. Charitable giving should run 5-10%, all savings should run 10-15%, housing 25-35%, and transportation should run 10-15%. I would also recommend 3 months of living expenses as an emergency fund perhaps 6 months if you have a very erratic income (like commission sales or self employed).
Since you asked a bit on my trip to Berlin;
-It is a great city to visit except everything is in German.
-Be careful bicycles have the right of way, over pedestrians or cars.
-You have to pay to use the bath room.
-Berliners are not rude nor anti American, but seem to lack the subtle nuances of manners; like ladies first, or let people off the u-bahn
before you enter.
-Mass transit in Berlin is awesome.
-Electronic signs tell you how long you have to wait for a bus or u-bahn (subway), s-bahn or the strasse bahn(street cars)
-The road signs are Crazy and seem to point to no where.
-New Yorkers would love it no one smiles.
- The Food and the food service were awful.
-Dunkin Donuts are every where.
-It stays light out until 10pm (2200).
-Despite almost 12% unemployment German girls love to shop, the stores were very crowded even in the middle of the day.
-What’s terrible in the US 3.1% GDP growth, is fantastic in Europe .50% GDP growth.
-There is a festival for every day of the week.
-Yes, the beer is really that good.
-You can actually by pieces of the Berlin wall, and come home with a bag of rocks.
My god first it was Tony Blair now it looks like the French will vote down the new EU constitution .It also appears the Mr. Schroeder in Germany will lose his job to a “pro American PM” How can that be ? But I thought the wise Europeans new better than to throw there fortunes in with that Cowboy from Texas? Perhaps selling nuclear weapons to Iran is not as popular as we have been led to believe? But never fear the UN is still telling the US the road to prosperity is for America to shut up and pay and many in New York would answer the UN should pay their parking tickets and get lost. Meanwhile the Senate gets back to work and is still pondering why most Americas hate the UN and think the Senate has the credibility of the run away bride. The completion of the BTC pipe line gives the west (Europe) access to more oil and circumvents Mullahs in Iran and the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia. Hummm I only know what I read but perhaps, just perhaps those neo-cons are on to something.
James
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