Thursday, May 26, 2005

in the news this week

MEXICO CITY (AP) - President Vicente Fox refused to apologize Monday for saying Mexicans in the United States do the work that blacks won't - a comment widely viewed as acceptable in a country where blackface comedy is still considered funny and nicknames often reflect skin color.

VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran is circumventing international export bans on sensitive dual-use materials by smuggling graphite and a graphite compound that can be used to make conventional and nuclear weapons, an Iranian dissident and a senior diplomat said Friday.

UNITED NATIONS - Stating that the United Nations needs "nothing less than a transformation," the organization's chief of staff, Mark Malloch Brown, told Congress yesterday that reform could be achieved only by increasing funding and reducing American interference at Turtle Bay.(NY SUN)

Muslim protesters today called for the bombing of New York in a demonstration outside the US embassy in London. (Luke David, Evening Standard)

A satellite survey shows that between 1992 and 2003, the East Antarctic ice sheet gained about 45 billion tonnes of ice. (

"The Sunnis and the Shiites, the Kurds and all the various tribes can work out accommodations that will allow them to build a stable society, I think that will be good for Iraq and good for the Middle East," (X-President Bill)Clinton said at the end of a two-day visit to Denmark.(Yahoo News)

WASHINGTON, May 17 - The Bush administration kept up the pressure today on Newsweek magazine to do something beyond retracting an article asserting that investigators had confirmed the desecration of a Koran by American interrogators trying to unsettle Muslim detainees.” There is lasting damage to our image because of this report," the chief White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, said at a news briefing. "And we would encourage Newsweek to do all that they can to help repair the damage that has been done, particularly in the region.” (NYT).

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, in its hardest stance yet, warned China on Tuesday that it likely will be accused of manipulating its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage over the United States — unless Beijing acts swiftly to overhaul its currency system. (Yahoo News)

Industry analysts say the refining shortage hits especially hard in the U.S. Refiners here haven't built a new plant since 1976, and remain reluctant to do so for a variety of reasons, including public resistance, expected returns on investment and environmental regulations.(WSJ)

BRUSSELS – European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet delivered a newly pessimistic view of the euro-zone economy, saying Europe faces "relatively high uncertainty" and signaling that the bank will probably downgrade its growth forecast for a second time this year. (WSJ)

Opinion polls put the "No" camp ahead in France as well as in the Netherlands, which votes on the treaty on June 1, raising the prospect of a double rejection which could hold up European integration and cause jitters on financial markets. (Timothy Heritage, Yahoo news)

Nonetheless, we are going to have a tech rally before this year is out. Reason: We always do -- at least we have for the past six out of seven years -- with one exception, 2000. And that year doesn't count because it was the market implosion of a lifetime. (Barron’s)

In fact, Goldman predicts that a tech rally "could start even earlier this year, [as] investors could see a green light" after they clear any potentially negative second-quarter pre-announcements by early to mid-July. However, Goldman adds, investors will still need to "slog" through summer, in some cases, because Europe continues to be weaker than North America. (Barron’s)

Only 42 inches wide, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was supposed to alter global oil markets forever. The 1,000-mile project has transformed the geopolitics of the Caucasus and its impact is now being felt in the vastness of central Asia…..Its architects and investors claimed the pipeline would shore up energy supplies in the US and Europe for 50 years, protecting our gas-guzzling way of life and easing our reliance on the House of Saud. (The Independent)

( - In a major achievement for the Caucasus and a strategic victory for the U.S., one of the world's longest oil pipelines has come on line, providing the region with its first outlet to world oil markets that bypasses Russia. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline "can help generate balanced economic growth, and provide a foundation for a prosperous and just society that advances the cause of freedom," President Bush said in a message, read by Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman at the inauguration ceremony Wednesday.

briefs or boxers.... reason is we always do..

May 20, 2005


Add one more thing to what every market needs….Transparency, liquidity, creditworthiness and Yankee victories. Funny the Yankee’s start to win and the market rallies. The Market seems to be signaling an end to the FED rate rising cycle. The data continues to suggest moderate growth, low inflation, a strengthening dollar, improved productivity and moderate job creation. Utilities continue to rally and growth stocks look to be back in vogue. The energy picture looks to be more a product of a refining capacity shortage than an energy shortage. Contrary to Wall Street conventional wisdom this is not the 1970’s, more like 1995-1996,where the “stealth” bear market of 1995 led to a significant rally in 1996 in technology stocks. With utilities telling us the interest rate raises are done and growth stocks back in favor, semiconductors after a long period of disfavor are once again leading the way .The Go-Go Days may be once again at hand.

Some clients have asked me how much money I should be putting away for retirement, charity, housing and so on. I have broken down income into some suggested spending and savings percentages; simply as a guideline everyone has a different situation. Charitable giving should run 5-10%, all savings should run 10-15%, housing 25-35%, and transportation should run 10-15%. I would also recommend 3 months of living expenses as an emergency fund perhaps 6 months if you have a very erratic income (like commission sales or self employed).

Since you asked a bit on my trip to Berlin;

-It is a great city to visit except everything is in German.
-Be careful bicycles have the right of way, over pedestrians or cars.
-You have to pay to use the bath room.
-Berliners are not rude nor anti American, but seem to lack the subtle nuances of manners; like ladies first, or let people off the u-bahn
before you enter.
-Mass transit in Berlin is awesome.
-Electronic signs tell you how long you have to wait for a bus or u-bahn (subway), s-bahn or the strasse bahn(street cars)
-The road signs are Crazy and seem to point to no where.
-New Yorkers would love it no one smiles.
- The Food and the food service were awful.
-Dunkin Donuts are every where.
-It stays light out until 10pm (2200).
-Despite almost 12% unemployment German girls love to shop, the stores were very crowded even in the middle of the day.
-What’s terrible in the US 3.1% GDP growth, is fantastic in Europe .50% GDP growth.
-There is a festival for every day of the week.
-Yes, the beer is really that good.
-You can actually by pieces of the Berlin wall, and come home with a bag of rocks.

My god first it was Tony Blair now it looks like the French will vote down the new EU constitution .It also appears the Mr. Schroeder in Germany will lose his job to a “pro American PM” How can that be ? But I thought the wise Europeans new better than to throw there fortunes in with that Cowboy from Texas? Perhaps selling nuclear weapons to Iran is not as popular as we have been led to believe? But never fear the UN is still telling the US the road to prosperity is for America to shut up and pay and many in New York would answer the UN should pay their parking tickets and get lost. Meanwhile the Senate gets back to work and is still pondering why most Americas hate the UN and think the Senate has the credibility of the run away bride. The completion of the BTC pipe line gives the west (Europe) access to more oil and circumvents Mullahs in Iran and the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia. Hummm I only know what I read but perhaps, just perhaps those neo-cons are on to something.


Friday, May 20, 2005

Terrorism and your Investments Seminar

On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.


Thursday, May 12, 2005

in the news this week

After three years of rising federal budget deficits, a surge of April tax receipts brought unexpected good news to fiscal policymakers -- the tide of government red ink appears to be receding. The Treasury Department this week reported there would be a $54 billion swing from projected deficit to surplus in the April-to-June quarter, after an unanticipated gush of tax payments poured into the Treasury before the April 15 deadline. That prompted private forecasters to lower their deficit projections for the fiscal year that ends in September.(Washington Post)

Up and down Wall Street yesterday, the refrain on trading desks was: Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing (in GM). (WSJ)

International Business Machines Corp., stung by weak financial results, will take a pretax charge of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion to cut jobs and restructure operations, primarily in Western Europe….IBM also signaled that it would turn its focus increasingly toward the lower-cost, higher-growth markets of Eastern Europe. "That clearly is the direction in which IBM should be going," said Bob Djurdjevic, an analyst at Annex Research in Phoenix. "These countries have barely been touched by" information technology. (WSJ)

WASHINGTON — The U.S. government has opened a criminal inquiry into suspected embezzlement by officials who failed to account for almost $100 million they disbursed for Iraqi reconstruction projects, federal investigators said Wednesday. (LA Times)

Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has expressed "grave and growing concerns about the credibility and independence" of the U.N.'s inquiry, led by Volcker; and he has complained loudly about Volcker's refusal to let Parton and a second investigator cooperate with various congressional committees. (CNS.NEWS)

UNITED NATIONS - Two well-known European supporters of Saddam Hussein received large quantities of oil allocations in a bribery scheme devised under the oil-for-food program to gain political influence, according to a Senate report released yesterday. (NY SUN)

UNITED NATIONS - The United Nations is investigating whether a senior official at one of its agencies, Justin Leites, violated U.N. rules and the organization's spirit of international neutrality by taking a paid leave of absence last year to work as a Kerry-Edwards presidential campaign official in his home state of Maine.(NY SUN)

"If there is no progress, we have to think of other options, such as taking this matter to the United Nations Security Council." (Nobutaka Machimura The Japanese foreign minister threatened on Friday to purse the North Korean nuclear weapons program before the U.N. Security Council next month unless six-nation talks on the dispute show progress.)
UN nuclear watchdog Chief Mohammed ElBaradei has told US television his agency estimates that North Korea could have up to six nuclear weapons. (BBC)

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day on concern refiners in the U.S. and Europe will struggle to produce enough gasoline and diesel to meet rising demand.

May 11 (Bloomberg)-- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in half a year, as imports of consumer goods fell and exports grew to a record. The deficit dropped 9.2 percent from an all-time high of $60.6 billion in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists called for a deficit of $61.9 billion.

WASHINGTON -- U.S. employers created far more jobs in April than Wall Street expected, suggesting the economy may be regaining speed after hitting a "soft patch" in the first three months of the year. Non-farm payrolls grew by a robust 274,000 last month -- nearly a 100,000 more than financial markets expected, the Labor Department said Friday. The department also said employers created 93,000 more non-farm jobs in March and February, raising the monthly average for the year so far to a healthy 211,000. (WSJ)

The AARP is spending its members' money on opposing personal Social Security accounts, even though the accounts wouldn't affect most of the AARP's current members, who are too old to be affected by the policy changes. Most of the organization's members joined the AARP for discounts at hotels and on insurance, not to fund a lobbying campaign against President Bush's domestic agenda of putting their children's and grandchildren's retirement on a sounder financial footing. In an era with a renewed focus on boards' responsiveness to shareholders, it can't be long before some enterprising regulator, lawyer, or member-activist takes a careful look at what the AARP's self-perpetuating board has been up to in the name of the 35 million members that the group claims to represent (NY SUN)

``This is a case about mutual funds,'' Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson declared simply as he began describing the charges against Theodore Sihpol III, a former broker at Bank of America. (Bloomberg)

``You will see that this defendant, Theodore Sihpol III, motivated by financial gain and to aid and abet a hedge fund to make millions of dollars, intentionally and continually subverted the notion of mutuality.'' (Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson)'

To get a sense of how much prices might drop, check out the early 1990s performance of two of today's hotter (real-estate) markets, Boston and Los Angeles. According to Freddie Mac, prices in the greater Boston area sank 10% during the 30 months through mid-1992, while Los Angeles was hit with a grueling six-year 21% decline. (WSJ)

Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing

May 6,2005


So did he get a “bloody Nose” or is the Anti-Bush Mainstream Media just a bunch of sore losers. Tony Blair’s victory signals nothing more than a resounding support for his policies. Without sounding like I am stating the obvious, the Party that picked up the most seats from Labor was the “Torries ,the party of Margaret Thatcher ”, in the US we would call them the “Conservatives” who were strongly in support of the War on Terror, are free market oriented and very suspicious of continental Europe. What should be gleaned form Prime Minister Blair’s victory is perhaps he wasn’t strong enough. The number one issue In Brittan was immigration, immigration, immigration! Listen up everyone, immigration! I said immigration……

The market continues its final shake down. I am just waiting for everyone to call and say no more stocks; I am going into real-estate because “I can’t lose any money.” That’s the buy signal I am waiting for. The real-estate investor is sounding like Tech investors in the late 1990’s to me.

The interesting thing is that there are so many takeovers, and stock buys backs going on. One can only conclude is that the people with the big money think the market is cheap no matter what they say. We are seeing the return of the LBO, merger mania and perhaps the dreaded “green mail”. Again I say what does Kirk Kerkorian know that we don’t .Those of you who do not know who he is simply google his name and think Chrysler 1980’s.

Will GM survive? GM has been over do for structural changes for some time, like 30 years, well hope springs eternal. Ah those pension plans GM, American Airlines and so on be wary they are based on the same “ponzi” principle that social security is based on. Be fore warned the same will happen to all “pensions” eventually. There is an inherent flaw in there design. The flaw of paying current retirees with current workers contributions will fail because of increases in productivity, changes in demographics and shifts in industrial development. Market based 401k’s type plans are the way of the future and of the present. The obsolete pension obligations of the past are creating a huge burden for tax payers and consumers. Is anybody listening?

Oil may not be as big of a deal as we all have been led to believe. Seems that in 1980 we spent 7% of our income on fuel and currently we spend 3%. Each dollar of GDP takes 50% less oil to create than in 1980. Perhaps high oil prices are more a measure of geopolitical uncertainty than a harbinger of economic slow down.

Lots of talk this week about the “Nuclear Option”, who will use is first, the Senate, the UN, North Korea, Iran , Al Qaida or George Bush either way it looks like we are in for some fireworks the next couple of months, which should add some volatility to the mix while the market finds its bottom.

I will be traveling next week on business ,to Berlin (Germany not Vermont or Conneticut)from the 13th to the 19th .On Friday May 20th I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation .


Wednesday, May 04, 2005

in the news..

If you listen too hard to pessimistic pundits, you can get all lathered up over the risks of stagflation - slower growth and higher prices. Don't go there. This is not the 1970s. Money is sounder, tax rates are lower, productivity and profits are much higher, and world trade is more open. Today's technology-streamlined and deregulated economy is not inflation-prone. (Larry Kudlow, NY SUN)

A major study by the National Association of Manufacturers in 2003 showed that even during the most recent recession, 80% of manufacturers had a moderate to serious shortage of production workers, machinists and craftworkers. The group predicts that manufacturers will need as many as 10 million new skilled workers by 2020, in part to replace the aging boomers who make up a large part of the 14 million manufacturing jobs today. (WSJ)

SEATTLE -- As Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) prepares to release the next generation of its Xbox gaming console in several weeks, Chairman Bill Gates said he believes the company is in a position to compete for the No. 1 spot with Sony Corp. (SNE) and its Playstation franchise. (WSJ)

In a recent interview, General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for forgiveness toward the people who have harbored and abetted the terrorists who perpetrated the 9/11 attacks on America. His answer was classic Schwartzkopf. The General said, “I believe that forgiving them is God's function. OUR job is to arrange the meeting."

Pacific Rim Bureau ( - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea Monday that the U.S. had "significant" capability in the Pacific region to deter the Stalinist state's nuclear ambitions.

North Korea, meanwhile, denounced President Bush on Saturday as a "hooligan" and said it doesn't expect a solution to the standoff over its nuclear program during his tenure. The escalating rhetoric was followed Sunday by a test-firing of a North Korean short-range missile into the Sea of Japan (

WASHINGTON – Former CIA chief James Woolsey affirms the work of a special commission investigating the threat of a nuclear-bomb generated electromagnetic pulse attack on the U.S. by rogue states or terrorists and is urging the country to take steps necessary to protect against the potentially devastating consequences. (By Joseph Farah

Affirmative action produces no concrete benefits for minority students and actually has several harmful effects, according to a new report by the Cato Institute.” Recent research shows that college admissions preferences do not offer even the practical benefits claimed by their supporters," writes Marie Gryphon, a lawyer and policy analyst with the Cato Institute's Center for Educational Freedom. (NEWS MAX)

Mr. Volcker's weekend phone calls did not sit well with legislators. "We should have an opportunity to talk" to the two investigators, Senator Coleman, a Republican of Minnesota, told CNN yesterday. "I am very disturbed that they [the United Nations] assert some kind of immunity." (BENNY AVNI, NY SUN)

A US senator who has repeatedly called for the resignation of UN chief Kofi Annan over the Iraq oil-for-food scandal has raised the prospect that tapes may exist directly implicating the Secretary-General in wrongdoing. (David Nason, the Australian)

Charles Pasqua,( Union for Europe of the Nations Group, Chairman) a former French minister of interior, has emerged as one of the highest-ranking targets of the widening investigations into the Iraq oil-for-food scandal, writes Claudio Gatti. (FT)

The deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmoud Al-Sayyid Ahmad Al-Habib, made a similar appearance on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV, on April 8, 2004, and said, "The truth is that the resistance, whether in Iraq or in Palestine ... defends the nation's honor ... Therefore, the issue ... martyrdom (i.e., suicide) operations carried out by boys and girls, and also the operations carried out by the Iraqi resistance - these redeem self-confidence and hope, because a nation that does not excel at the industry of death does not deserve life." (NY SUN)

CAIRO, Egypt -- Followers of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would attack the White House or the Vatican if their leader chooses to target those sites, the al-Qaida in Iraq's deputy chief purportedly said in an Internet statement posted Monday. The written statement, signed in the name of Abu Abdel-Rahman al-Iraqi, also threatened to attack Iraqi security forces and officials, including incoming Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite Muslim. (NEWS MAX)

run away bride......

May 3,2005


Will the FED start to single it is winding down it’s interest rate increases. The continued good performance of utility stocks would suggest the end of the rate raise is in sight and perhaps inflation is much tamer than we all have been led to believe. Utilities historical have traded well in a declining interest rate or flat interest rate environments. The pundit’s continue to be wrong on every issue. The current thinking is “how can the FED curb raising inflation in a slowing economy with out slowing the economy further”. My view is vastly different, the current slow down is more seasonal than fundamental. The summer brings us longer days, baseball, golf, lots of vacations, BBQ’s and good times with friends and family. There is always, I repeat always a bit of and economic slowdown during the spring and summer months because individuals and businesses enjoy the weather and put off major purchases till the fall. The annalists and the pundit’s seize on the summer doldrums as proof of our of our very destruction, speculating that the fall of western civilization is upon us do to out decadent lifestyle, but alas the season changes and the economic cycle will breed anew. The second issue of growing inflation is simply nonsense. What’s interesting is that the dollar is now rising against most major currencies; inflation would have the entirely opposite effect. As I have said be for the FED flooded the US economy with liquidity in an attempt to avoid a great depression style deflationary spiral. As the fears of deflation have abated the FED began to tighten up the reins. What you’re seeing is the liquidity bubbling up into the economy causing the inflation rate to go from negative to a slight positive. The inflation rate remains low and if not for higher energy prices the rate would be almost nonexistent. Forget all this ridiculous talk of stagflation. For those of you lucky enough not to remember stagflation was a economic period in the late 1970’s during the Carter Administration .Inflation and interest rates were in the 20% level, unemployment was climbing to well over the current levels at 7.7%, GDP growth was under 1% .Basically there was no growth and very high inflation and high unemployment, a very different story from today’s GDP growth rate of 3.1%, barley 3% interest rates and 5.4% unemployment.


Monday, May 02, 2005

in the news

The U.S. has quietly warned China that North Korea could be preparing for a nuclear-weapons test and asked the Chinese to urge Pyongyang to desist, according to a U.S. official. (Matt Drudge)

Europe, the new Pope has written, “appears to be at the start of its decline and fall.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)

In choosing Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger to succeed Pope John Paul II as Pope Benedict XVI, the Catholic Church has cast a vote for the survival of Europe and the West. “Europe will be Islamic by the end of the century,” historian Bernard Lewis predicted not long ago; however, judging from the writings of the new Pope, he is not likely to be sanguine about this transition. For one thing, the new Pope seems to be aware of the grave danger Europeans face: he has called upon Europe to recover its Christian roots “if it truly wants to survive.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)

Tehran, Apr. 20 – Iran’s southern Khuzestan province was the scene of further chaos today as another round of fierce fighting erupted between people and government forces, following severe clashes several days ago which left dozens dead and hundreds wounded or arrested. The latest clashes broke out this morning between Iran’s State Security Forces (SSF) and local residents in several districts of the city of Ahwaz, including Kut Abdullah, Kian and Khashayar. (IRAN FOCUS)

TEHRAN, April 21 (Reuters) - Around 400 volunteers signed up in Tehran to sacrifice their lives in "occupied Islamic countries" on Wednesday night, inspired by a fatwa from a top hardline cleric giving religious backing to suicide missions.

"Two hundred out of 344 arrested people have been released," Amir Khani, state prosecutor in Khuzestan's capital Ahwaz, said on Wednesday. "The rest could be released on bail if their families pay. The main people responsible for the disorder number at least 10, and they will be strongly confronted by the judiciary. "During the violence, which began on Friday and continued until Sunday, groups of Iranian-Arabs smashed and set fire to police cars, banks and government offices and clashed with security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. (Ethnic unrest broke out in mainly Arab Khuzestan region on Friday
PARIS – Saudi Arabia, facing mounting pressure from the U.S. and others to step up output of oil and gas amid a surge in prices, plans to more than double its investment in energy development to $50 billion in the next five years from the previous five-year period. (WSJ)

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said China will unpeg its currency from the dollar "sooner rather than later" because the policy poses a growing threat to China's own economy. (WSJ)

For the past few weeks, stocks have been in a pattern of sharp bounces after steep declines, said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. In April, however, Fridays have been lethal for stocks. Blue chips have declined sharply in the three previous Fridays this month, for a total loss of 353.37 points. The month of April is on track to be one of the worst in 35 years if the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses 30 points today. (WSJ)

UNITED NATIONS — Paul Volcker (search) told FOX News his committee isn't going soft on U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in the Oil-for-Food investigation and denies that there was any conflict of interest over his link to a U.N. official being questioned in the probe (FOX NEWS)

NEW YORK — A former senior investigator from the independent probe into allegations of corruption in the U.N. Oil-for-Food (search) program confirmed Saturday that he had resigned to protest a report clearing U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan of meddling in the operation. (FOX NEWS)

"I said to him the other day, 'George, if you really want to end tyranny in this world, you're going to have to stay up later,"' Laura Bush said. "Nine o'clock and Mr. Excitement here is in bed, and I am watching 'Desperate Housewives' -- with Lynne Cheney. Ladies and gentlemen, I am a desperate housewife." (First Lady Laura Bush)

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett said he maintained a more than $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar even after it cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million the first quarter.

The Great Crusade

April 21, 2005


The Cardinals have made an amazing shrewd choice with the choice of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger .In one move the Cardinals have joined the war on terror and the war against international one world government George Soros socialism. Meanwhile the President did something even more astonishing .Merely by holding hands with a Saudi King oil prices plunged more than 4% and below $50 a barrel for the first time in some time. The gesture sent out a simple message simultaneously reiterating confidence, legitimacy and a special friendship to the Kingdom of Saud and recognition of the law of diminishing returns, were by to high of oil prices lead to permanent conservation which in the long run leads to a decline in oil demand.

As for the market well the choices available may not have the same impact. The energy sectors seems the place to be, with drugs and health care looking to make a come back. What happened last week you ask? A very over extended market to the down side produced what looks to be the signal that that things are going to start moving in a positive direction. Remember the NASDQ is still down over 60% form it’s 2000 highs ,yet earning have increased nearly 50%. The one day burst of 200 plus points to the up side, with advancers out pacing decliners 3-1 and up volume led declining volume 5-1 with very heavy volume. Yes it could be short covering and yes it could be a one up day on the way down but in my view the market has put the brakes on the down ward slide. The follow up rally on Friday April 29th would suggest that this is the beginning of something big. Like I said be fore it still could take some time to build a head of steam.

The market continues to trade like it is looking for the final bottom. It could be several months or a matter of days. In the years since the March 2000 meltdown all the rules have been tossed out the window. We had a prolonged period of low volume sell downs. We have had information and pricing break downs. Then nothing more than a bit of a post 9/11 dead cat bounce. Now the signals of the grand finely are upon us. In a rare occurrence the percent of Bearish Advisors has become greater than the percent of Bullish advisors, in fact Bearish advisors out pace the Bulls by almost 20%, historically that suggest a big rally is coming. Since October of last year we have seen an unprecedented amount of corporate repurchasing of there own company stock. Also signaling that there are good value’s out there is the reigniting of corporate takeovers and mergers. We are all just so glum. Lots bad economic data followed by lots good data, but lets face it with a GDP growth rate of 3.1% ,home ownership at a record high, and an unemployment rate of 5.3% it is simply impossible to make a historical negative argument. The Facts just get in the way. Especially given Europe and Japan’s GDP for sometime have been growing at less then 1% and Europe’s unemployment rate hovers near 11%, with trade and budget deficits comparable to ours. Perhaps it may take tax refunds or the rumor that Microsoft is beginning to see the light on some new grand technology. It seems all we need is a little exuberance irrational or otherwise to get this thing going.