Tuesday, May 30, 2006

1987 ,you must be kidding

Are commodities over valued and heading for a bust ? It is interesting to note that the CRB Commodity index which has been credited with a parabolic raise since its low in October 2002 and is up 53%, while the S&P 500 is up 58% in the same period. Mind you the CRB has just emerged form a 20 year bear market .While the S&P in my mind has been in a bear market since March 2000 and is currently trading at the cheapest earnings multiple in over 20 years. I have also heard some silly talk that this market is like 1987 ,forgive me for laughing but the Dow tumbled almost 25% in one day ,that would be like the Dow dropping around 3000 points in one day now. It is also my duty to point out that the Dow had rallied beginning in 1982 and almost tripled from were it started, that would be like seeing the NASDQ around 15,0000 right now. I think many of the pundits and market watchers need to do a little more home work and another demonstration that Bush bashing does little or nothing to help make investment decisions. My point being again that stock and commodity markets are far from over valued and by a long term view still relatively cheap.

1 comment:

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