Friday, December 29, 2006

Office Closed on Tuesday January 2

December 29, 2006

TO: All Employees and Branches

FROM: James Foytlin

On Tuesday, January 2, 2007, Gerald Ford's funeral will be held. In observance of Gerald Ford's Funeral, and the departing of the Godfather of Soul James Brown the stock market will be closed, however the bond market will be open.

Our Ridgewood office will be closed for business.
Have a Happy New Year.

HORWITZ & ASSOCIATES, INC.
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450
jfoytlin@horwitzco.com


investment guru

Whip Inflation Now

December 29,2006

Hello,

Poor Gerry Ford, even in his death he can’t get any respect. Ex President Fords death grabbed the headlines for what seemed only a matter of minutes when the Godfather of Soul James Brown died a day or so later. The only man to become president without the bother of the campaign was dealt another tuff hand, having to compete with the God Father of Soul’s estate locking his widow out of his mansion at 6am . A star athlete and military hero, member of the Warren Commission and long term congressmen he presided under the shadow of Watergate and just before the malaise of the Carter Years. Ford became President by default when both Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew left office under separate clouds. His tenure as president was marked by what many have called a “national healing” after Watergate another words he didn’t do anything to piss anyone off. He is known for his “Whip Inflation Now” buttons, a fashion statement that just never caught on. The act he will long be most remembered for and perhaps defines his presidency to most was his pardon of Richard Nixon, which many people with no lives still argue about it to this day. In later years he became more famous for being the longest living ex president. Unlike other ex presidents Gerry Ford managed for the most part to keep his foot out of his mouth, but upon his death a lot has been made of his opposition to the Iraq war believing that more sanctions, like the “oil for fraud” program were the way to go. So a lot will be said of Gerry Ford in the next couple of days but at the end of the day his presidency will be very hard to put a finger on and define. As part of a national day of morning for Gerry Ford the US Equity markets will be closed on Tuesday January 2nd to mark his funeral, so take that James Brown and Happy New Year Everyone!

James
www.jamesfoytlin.com

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

news

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Apple Computer Inc. fell as much as 5% in Wednesday trades after a published report suggested that some company officials may have falsified stock-option documents to maximize profits for executives.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new homes rose 3.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales are now down 15.3% in the past year, the government's data showed.

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Chunghwa Telecom Co., Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. and other Asian telephone carriers may take weeks to resume full Internet and phone services in the region after earthquakes off Taiwan damaged undersea cables.

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The yen confounded forecasters by falling this year and may do the same in 2007 as money managers take advantage of Japan's near-zero percent interest rates to finance investments in bonds from the U.K. to New Zealand.

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- As hot as the mergers market is now, it's about to get hotter. All the variables are in place for acquisitions in 2007 to surpass this year's record $3.6 trillion. U.S. stocks are trading close to the cheapest price-to-earnings levels in a decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Yields on junk bonds used to finance takeovers also are near 10-year lows, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. Leveraged buyout firms have $1.6 trillion to spend, Morgan Stanley estimates.

US forces are holding two Iranian nationals detained last week in the Iraqi capital on suspicion of weapons smuggling, military spokesman General William Caldwell has confirmed.(AFP)
An Iraqi judge has rejected Saddam Hussein's appeal and ruled that the former dictator must hang within 30 days. The execution may be controversial, but hundreds of Iraqis want to pull the gallows lever. (SPIEGEL ONLINE 2006)

MINSK/MOSCOW - Belarus issued an implicit threat that it could stop Russian gas deliveries through its pipelines to western Europe unless Russia’s gas monopoly Gazprom relented on demands Minsk pay steep price increases in 2007. (FT)

Thursday, December 21, 2006

"Christmas light " gauge gives you a clear indication

December 21, 2006


First I would just like to say have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year,

The year end rally seems to have a hit a flat spot and degenerated into directionless trading. One would think with the prospect of a FED rate cut, continued merger and acquisition activity and loads of cash on the side lines would give Santa something to celebrate but with a bit over a week to go in 2006 looks like Santa cant find a parking spot at the mall.

Will the Voters in Iran do what the politicians in the US and Europe are failing to do and stand up to Tyranny? Meanwhile the current currency controls placed on the Tai Bot by the New Tai government later reversed and Russia’s continued consolidation of power and re-nationalization of industries are a reminder of the dangers of emerging market investing.

Many analysts seem surprised by the large increase in retail spending this Christmas season, not this blogger. One look at the age old “Christmas light “gauge gives you a clear indication that the economy is booming. The Christmas light gauge is a theory that’s says when people are flush with cash and spending they feel joy for the season, so the more out door Christmas lights you see house to house the more prosperous people feel about themselves and the economy . It seems a bit of a slow start this year but in the last few weeks people have been decking the halls with close to reckless abandon. Bottom line the more Christmas light you see the more prosperous people feel and the more they spend. Look for a big gain in Christmas retail sales.

I am pleased to announce that I am now able to offer mortgages as a value added service to my customers through Riverview Mortgage located in Rutherford New Jersey.

Loan Products

♦ Purchases
♦ Rate & Term Refinances
♦ Debt Consolidation/Cash-Out Refinances
♦ 1st Time Homebuyer/100% Financing
♦ FHA/VA Loans
♦ Construction and Commercial Loans
♦ Home Equity Lines of Credit – both variable and fixed rates


Don’t forget there isn’t much time left…..
IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW
AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000 $3,500
2005
$4,000 $4,500
2006-2007
$4,000 $5,000
2008
$5,000 $6,000

James J Foytlin
1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2780
fax 1(201)301-2762
www.jamesfoytlin.com

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

British Lord Stings Senators Rockefeller and Snowe: 'Uphold Free Speech or Resign'

WASHINGTON, Dec. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Lord Monckton, Viscount of Brenchley, has sent an open letter to Senators Rockefeller (D-WV) and Snowe (R-Maine) in response to their recent open letter telling the CEO of ExxonMobil to cease funding climate-skeptic scientists. (http://ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20061212_monckton.pdf).

Lord Monckton, former policy adviser to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, writes: "You defy every tenet of democracy when you invite ExxonMobil to deny itself the right to provide information to 'senior elected and appointed government officials' who disagree with your opinion."

In what The Charleston (WV) Daily Mail has called "an intemperate attempt to squelch debate with a hint of political consequences," Senators Rockefeller and Snowe released an open letter dated October 30 to ExxonMobil CEO, Rex Tillerson, insisting he end Exxon's funding of a "climate change denial campaign." The Senators labeled scientists with whom they disagree as "deniers," a term usually directed at "Holocaust deniers." Some voices on the political left have called for the arrest and prosecution of skeptical scientists. The British Foreign Secretary has said skeptics should be treated like advocates of Islamic terror and must be denied access to the media.

Responds Lord Monckton, "Sceptics and those who have the courage to support them are actually helpful in getting the science right. They do not, as you improperly suggest, 'obfuscate' the issue: they assist in clarifying it by challenging weaknesses in the 'consensus' argument and they compel necessary corrections ... "

Lord Monckton's Churchillian reproof continues, "You acknowledge the effectiveness of the climate sceptics. In so doing, you pay a compliment to the courage of those free-thinking scientists who continue to research climate change independently despite the likelihood of refusal of publication in journals that have taken preconceived positions; the hate mail and vilification from ignorant environmentalists; and the threat of loss of tenure in institutions of learning which no longer make any pretence to uphold or cherish academic freedom."

Of Britain's Royal Society, a State-funded scientific body which, like the Senators, has publicly leaned on ExxonMobil, Lord Monckton said, "The Society's long-standing funding by taxpayers does not ensure any greater purity of motive or rigour of thought than industrial funding of scientists who dare to question whether 'climate change' will do any harm."

To the Senators' comparison of ExxonMobil's funding of climate sceptics with tobacco-industry funding of research denying the link between smoking and lung cancer, Lord Monckton counters, "Your comparison of Exxon's funding of sceptical scientists and groups with the former antics of the tobacco industry is unjustifiable and unworthy of any credible elected representatives. Either withdraw that monstrous comparison forthwith, or resign so as not to pollute the office you hold."

Concludes Lord Monckton, "I challenge you to withdraw or resign because your letter is the latest in what appears to be an internationally-coordinated series of maladroit and malevolent attempts to silence the voices of scientists and others who have sound grounds, rooted firmly in the peer- reviewed scientific literature, to question what you would have us believe is the unanimous agreement of scientists worldwide that global warming will lead to what you excitedly but unjustifiably call 'disastrous' and 'calamitous' consequences."

SOURCE Center for Science and Public Policy



Copyright 2006 PR Newswire. All Rights Reserved.

Tyranny not good for markets

Will the Voters in Iran do what the politicians in the US and Europe are failing to do and stand up to Tyranny? Meanwhile the current currency controls place on the Tai Bot by the New Tai government and Russia’s continued consolidation of power and re-nationalization of industries are a reminder of the dangers of emerging market investing. I am also looking at the emergence of stock piles of metals as signal of a speculative frenzy?

Monday, December 18, 2006

New Value added Service - Mortgages

I am pleased to announce that I am now able to offer mortgages as a value added service to my customers through Riverview Mortgage located in Rutherford New Jersey. Please contact me today !

Loan Products

♦ Purchases
♦ Rate & Term Refinances
♦ Debt Consolidation/Cash-Out Refinances
♦ 1st Time Homebuyer/100% Financing
♦ FHA/VA Loans
♦ Construction and Commercial Loans
♦ Home Equity Lines of Credit – both variable and fixed rates

Flexible Income Documentation

♦ Full Documentation – verify both income and asset documents
♦ Stated Income/Verified Assets – State income, verbally verify employment, and verify assets
♦ Stated Income/Stated Assets – State income and assets – verbally verify employment
♦ No Income/No Asset – List employer, no income or assets stated, verbally verify employment
♦ No Documentation – No employer, income, or assets stated on application

Property Types

♦ Primary, Secondary, and Investment Properties
♦ 1-4 unit properties including condominiums/townhouses, planned unit developments, and cooperatives.
♦ Mixed-Use properties
♦ Commercial properties

Call Toll Free 1(866)492-3959

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Symbol
Name
Last Trade
Change
Volume
AA
ALCOA INC
30.76 4:01PM ET
0.31 (1.02%)
4,781,800
AIG
AMER INTL GROUP INC
72.03 4:00PM ET
0.88 (1.24%)
6,886,900
AXP
AMER EXPRESS INC
61.90 4:01PM ET
1.93 (3.22%)
11,181,400
BA
BOEING CO
89.93 4:01PM ET
0.33 (0.37%)
3,497,700
C
CITIGROUP INC
53.11 4:01PM ET
0.79 (1.51%)
20,862,700
CAT
CATERPILLAR INC
62.12 4:02PM ET
0.63 (1.02%)
5,352,400
DD
DU PONT E I DE NEM
48.40 4:05PM ET
1.26 (2.67%)
6,246,000
DIS
WALT DISNEY-DISNEY C
34.72 4:03PM ET
0.27 (0.78%)
8,534,700
GE
GEN ELECTRIC CO
36.21 4:01PM ET
0.71 (2.00%)
43,231,200
GM
GEN MOTORS
29.77 4:01PM ET
0.32 (1.09%)
8,223,900
HD
HOME DEPOT INC
39.97 4:01PM ET
0.86 (2.20%)
24,256,800
HON
HONEYWELL INTL INC
42.69 4:02PM ET
0.83 (1.98%)
7,204,100
HPQ
HEWLETT PACKARD CO
39.91 4:00PM ET
0.24 (0.60%)
14,785,200
IBM
INTL BUSINESS MACH
95.36 4:00PM ET
0.59 (0.62%)
4,644,100
INTC
INTEL CP
20.77 4:00PM ET
0.07 (0.34%)
49,471,090
JNJ
JOHNSON AND JOHNS DC
66.25 4:03PM ET
0.78 (1.19%)
9,256,500
JPM
JP MORGAN CHASE CO
47.95 4:01PM ET
0.35 (0.74%)
9,994,300
KO
COCA COLA CO THE
49.00 4:01PM ET
0.16 (0.33%)
7,915,100
MCD
MCDONALDS CP
43.69 4:00PM ET
0.10 (0.23%)
4,619,200
MMM
3M COMPANY
78.77 4:00PM ET
0.48 (0.61%)
3,190,600
MO
ALTRIA GROUP INC
84.97 4:01PM ET
0.39 (0.46%)
9,424,500
MRK
MERCK CO INC
43.60 4:00PM ET
0.26 (0.60%)
9,717,600
MSFT
MICROSOFT CP
30.07 4:00PM ET
0.52 (1.76%)
85,866,532
PFE
PFIZER INC
25.56 4:01PM ET
0.17 (0.67%)
36,768,600
PG
PROCTER GAMBLE CO
63.35 4:01PM ET
0.05 (0.08%)
5,804,900
T
AT&T INC.
35.66 4:03PM ET
0.11 (0.31%)
19,115,300
UTX
UNITED TECH
62.06 4:01PM ET
2.15 (3.35%)
17,004,000
VZ
VERIZON COMMUN
36.09 4:01PM ET
0.22 (0.61%)
9,807,200
WMT
WAL MART STORES
46.52 4:00PM ET
0.62 (1.35%)
18,332,000
XOM
EXXON MOBIL CP
78.73 4:00PM ET
1.37 (1.77%)
18,691,200

Dow closes at record on earnings

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged on Thursday, driving the Dow industrials to a record closing high on strong earnings from a range of companies such as investment bank Bear Stearns Companies and an improving outlook for both the U.S. economy and corporate profits.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 98.70 points, or 0.80 percent, at 12,416.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 12.23 points, or 0.87 percent, at 1,425.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 21.44 points, or 0.88 percent, at 2,453.85.



© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Your Investment Rep having fun....

Dont ever over look the Christmas Light Indicator....


Many analysis seem surprised by the large increase in retail spending this Christmas season, not this blogger . One look at the age old “Christmas light “ gauge gives you a clear indication that the economy is booming . The Christmas light gauge is a theory that’s says when people are flush with cash and spending they feel joy for the season, so the more out door Christmas lights you see house to house the more prosperous people feel about themselves and the economy . It seems a bit of a slow start this year but in the last few weeks people have been decking the halls with close to reckless abandon. Bottom line the more Christmas light yousee the more prosperous people feel and the more they spend.

news news news


Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Computer Inc.'s iTunes music store suffered a 65 percent slump in sales during the first six months of the year, reversing almost two years of gains, according to a Forrester Research Inc. report.

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. rose more than forecast in November as consumers rushed to take advantage of early holiday discounts, increasing the odds the economy will withstand the slump in housing.

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity International's Alexander Scurlock, who will quadruple the assets he manages to 21 billion euros ($28 billion) when he takes over Europe's largest stock mutual fund, plans to bet more money on fewer companies.
The head of the Russian state company building a nuclear plant in Iran urged Tehran on Tuesday to keep up payments to complete construction as scheduled, news reports said (AP)

Meet the world's top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane,or even George Bush: it is the cow. A United Nations report has identified the world's rapidly growing herds of cattle as the greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. And they are blamed for a host of other environmental crimes, from acid rain to the introduction of alien species, from producing deserts to creating dead zones in the oceans, from poisoning rivers and drinking water to destroying coral reefs. (The Independent)

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

End of Year Tax Selling

December 12, 2006

Hello,

Many long term investors have learned to get off to a fast start to Tax selling. Some long term investors even begin their tax selling right after Thanksgiving because every December the stock market gets hit by a rash of tax considerations. Taxes take a big bite out of an investor's return therefore Investors look to minimize their realized gains by recognizing their realized loses by year end.

Because of the dynamics of tax considerations stocks that outperformed during the year tend to get stronger because no one who is sitting on a big short-term gain is anxious to sell in December. Waiting until January to sell, this year's best performing stocks push capital gains tax liability into next year. Barring significant changes in events, the reduced level of selling gives the best performing stocks of the year some added strength -- until January.

The opposite happens to stocks that have gone down the drain this year. In order to reduce taxes, people who own these stocks want to sell them before the end of the year. Again, barring news, or material changes in the company the increased selling pressure tends to put pressure on the stock price until the end of the year.

James Foytlin

www.jamesfoytlin.com

News News News


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Next year will likely bring a second annual decline in existing home sales, the National Association of Realtors predicted on Monday.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Rep. Silvestre Reyes of Texas, who incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has tapped to head the Intelligence Committee when the Democrats take over in January, failed a quiz of basic questions about al Qaeda and Hezbollah, two of the key terrorist organizations the intelligence community has focused on since the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Iranian students have disrupted a speech by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a prestigious Tehran university, setting fire to his picture and heckling him. (AFP)

Shell is being forced by the Russian government to hand over its controlling stake in the world's biggest liquefied gas project, provoking fresh fears about the Kremlin's willingness to use the country's growing strength in natural resources as a political weapon. (Guardian)

(CNSNews.com) - A United Nations study due for release early next year will reportedly lower estimates of mankind's impact on the earth's climate by 25 percent, a development a leading climate change skeptic in the U.S. Senate says will pour "cold water" on "global warming alarmism."

Moscow (CNSNews.com) - International consensus on sanctions against Iran remains elusive, but Russia insisted Monday it would deepen economic ties, including nuclear cooperation, with Tehran.

Friday, December 08, 2006

Like predicting Hurricanes ,predicting economic data in a complex economy is pretty worthless

Is it me or the fact that 100 economist missed the new jobs number really no surprise ,lets face it jobs are moving into the home in many industries with telecommuting and self employment being the order of the day and of coarse the goverment and the media are behind the curve.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

"Peace in Our Time", 1938 ,Neville Chamberlain

The following is the wording of the statement that Neville Chamberlain waved when he stepped off the plane after the conference in Berlin had ended on 30 September, 1938.
"We, the German F├╝hrer and Chancellor, and the British Prime Minister, have had a further meeting today and are agreed in recognizing that the question of Anglo-German relations is of the first importance for two countries and for Europe.

"We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again.

"We are resolved that the method of consultation shall be the method adopted to deal with any other questions that may concern our two countries, and we are determined to continue our efforts to remove possible sources of difference, and thus to contribute to assure the peace of Europe."

Chamberlain read this statement to a cheering crowd in front of 10 Downing St. and said; "My good friends this is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honor. I believe it is peace in our time."
Excerpted from "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich."

This text is part of the Internet Modern History Sourcebook. The Sourcebook is a collection of public domain and copy-permitted texts for introductory level classes in modern European and World history.

Unless otherwise indicated the specific electronic form of the document is copyright. Permission is granted for electronic copying, distribution in print form for educational purposes and personal use. If you do reduplicate the document, indicate the source. No permission is granted for commercial use of the Sourcebook.
(c)Paul Halsall Aug 1997 halsall@murray.fordham.edu

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

the individual investor is not buying the new bull market

December 5,2006

Hello,



IRA Contribution Limits

YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW AGE 50 & ABOVE

2002-2004
$3,000 $3,500

2005
$4,000 $4,500

2006-2007
$4,000 $5,000

2008
$5,000 $6,000






Is the retail investor missing the boat? It appears that if mutual fund out flows are any indication the individual investor is not buying the new bull market. Some would say that the retail investor is not buying the bull. Perhaps the market isn’t up enough to encourage buying? I would suggest that the resistance of the retail investor to commit funds is a very bullish signal and further evidence of new bull market rally. The individual investor is still smarting over the pounding they took in March of 2000 and I can’t say I am not smarting myself. The 2000 meltdown or bubble bursting is for most investors a once in a life time event. The last time prior to 2000 was 71 years earlier in 1929.



So the news is out that European Companies have been gaining an ever large percentage of exports to developing countries. For many of you a light went off in your head: now it makes some sense why European stock markets have out performed in the face of higher interest rates and stagnant local economies with shrinking populations, high unemployment and large entitlement costs. For years some European economies like Germany and Italy have been known as export machines deriving a significant portion of there GDP’s from exports. The latest data runs counter to what many had suspected given the strength of the Euro. EU economist have worried for some time that a stronger Euro would make EU exports uncompetitive. My theory is a bit different, frequent readers of this blog are aware that I often view the EU as the weaker and most trouble some of the worlds economic trading blocks .There are however some very first rate companies in the EU. Many of them particularly some of the Spanish banks and Telecoms have used the strong Euro to buy assets in emerging markets and as these markets prosper so does the EU.



James

www.jamesfoytlin.com

Friday, December 01, 2006

ISM lowest since 2003?

I hate to be the one that always has to bring up the obvious but,before you go crazy with the latest weak ISM reading remember all the significant down sizing in the Detroit centered US Auto industry