Friday, May 18, 2007

Here we go again More Consumer Confidence Bull

US Consumer confidence seemed to surprise everyone for being stronger than expected. Again as I have said be for in this modern era with all this information technology .It seems rather odd that polling peoples buying opinions is a better gauge than consumers easily measured real buying habits. Most major retailers could tell you by the minute how much of a particular good is sold so at this point I can only think that easily manipulated consumer confidence surveys are just another symptom of lazy journalism and the agenda driven news epidemic. The economy is far stronger than the consensus is crediting it for. Consumer spending has a certain predictable cyclicality to it and the weather can force significant changes in those patterns. Every time there’s been a slow down of any kind in spending in the last 40 years economist have called for a recession. The old joke is that economist’s have called 9 of the last 2 recessions and are always looking for the 10th.

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