Tuesday, January 22, 2008

too Little Too Late

So the Treasury Speaks and the FED cuts, but as usual the action is muddled. A FED rate cuts in order to have maximum impact needs to catch the market off guard. A better move would have been to remain silent and run into a sinking market with a rate cut once trading began. This move was just too telegraphed and keeps the FED looking in the reaction mode. This FED action is not a confidence builder on the contrary the FED continues too look reactive instead of proactive. Worse yet is looking for this congress to do anything substantive, which seems to be no more than a pipe dream.

I have reevaluated (once again) my trading model and found the historical data was out of sync, I plugged in new data and it seems more inline with the current situation of the post 2000 melt down till the current time. I Think is more of the 1960’s, very strong economy but not much upside in the stock market with creeping economic policy mistakes that culminated in the destructive period of 1970’s ,we have just arrived in the 1970’s and look for a jimmy carter presidency no matter who wins this election….

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