Thursday, February 28, 2008

True Confessions

February 28, 2008


One of the issues that has been throwing off my trading since the big sell off in March 2000 ,has been that I have been using the wrong historical comps in my analysis . I was looking to the 1930’s and comparing the 2000 NASDQ melt down to the DOW melt down of 1929,the 1930’s with their foolish policies ushered in the great depression and were the prelude to world war two .
The Elliot wave gave me a chart in 2000 that appeared to be signaling a war was coming and after 9/11, it’s seemed to be a pretty solid comparison. The one nagging problem was how could the US stock market under perform so much with such a booming economy, with a huge productivity growth rate low interest rates and low inflation.

The fact of the matter is that we were more like a 1960’s stock market virtually remaining flat from 1966 till 1982, this market seemed to giving a warning of the creeping red disease and the coming hang over that would be the 1970’s.

I have reengineered my methodology and there for I have introduced the Carter Era Portfolio in an effort take advantage of the low growth, high inflation atmosphere that we are moving ever closer to with each day.



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