Monday, October 27, 2008

Greenspan Sells Out and we go limit down....


No wonder the market continues its sell off even the former FED Chair Allen Greenspan has raised the white or should i say red flag and joined the communist socialist big government party. Oh how the mighty have fallen once a clear voice now humbled by this huge financial crisis. Sometimes I wonder why these guys hold on when it’s clearly time to retire and manage in moment of weakness to decimate an entire lifetime of work.

Given the preponderance of 70’s generation types who operate under the philosophy that governments know better than markets and people its no wonder the market continues to fall and chaos reigns. The Elliot wave suggest this is the final leg of the 5th wave down

The current misconception being propagated is that hands off lazy fair left us with this mess, and big government is here to save us. Unfortunately in the world of Sarbanes Oxley it very hard to argue that there is not enough financial regulation, if the truth be told regulation it seems was applied unevenly with generous dispensations given to political friends and patrons.

Contrary to the current view that the government didn’t do enough in the 1930’s the reality is that it did plenty just not the right thing .In the 1930’s Government activism virtually created and prolonged the great depression, then like now the market was wrung by scandal creating a movement for greater regulation. This led to a very activist government ever searching for more revenue too feed their schemes. Interest rates and Taxes were raised, and world trade was halted with the passage of Smoot Hartley. There were efforts to over regulate everything and with price fixing of commodities were used guarantying shortages.

The positives yes they do exist are more than you think, inflation remains benign, the FED has stated buying commercial paper from qualified companies reinvigorating that market and perhaps saving consumer money markets,banks are beginning to merge clearing out the dead wood, the FED is buying up bad debt, interest rates are declining ,the dollar is strengthening and municipals bonds are firming up and once again looking to be the haven of widows and orphans.

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