S&P Warns of Cuts; Another US Downgrade Coming?

S&P Warns of Cuts; Another US Downgrade Coming? 
Published: Tuesday, 31 Jan 2012 | 9:09 AM ET
By: Antonia van de Velde
CNBC Associate Editor

Concerns over the size of United States debt reared their head once again as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned that health care costs for a number of highly-rated Group of 20 countries, including the U.S., could hurt growth prospects and harm their sovereign creditworthiness from the middle of this decade.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46202656

World Market Rout Is a Loud No-Confidence Vote in Global Leadership

World Market Rout Is a Loud No-Confidence Vote in Global Leadership

Global markets have issued a vote of no confidence in the management of the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and the euro area. To regain credibility, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic need to recognize the magnitude of the crisis they face.

The outlook reflected by the market rout is not encouraging, coming as it does after European and U.S. officials thought they were doing enough to fix their similar -- and overlapping -- fiscal problems. The U.S. is growing at a rate too slow to withstand a serious shock, and that shock could easily come from Europe’s resurgent financial crisis. So far, politicians’ efforts have been far too timid to convince the world that they have the situation under control.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/world-market-rout-is-a-loud-no-confidence-vote-in-leaders-view.html

Dow average plunges 513, worst drop since 2008

Dow average plunges 513, worst drop since 2008

NEW YORK -- The stock market is finishing its worst day since the financial crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 500 points Thursday. Investors are concerned that the U.S. economy will enter another recession and that Europe's debt problems are not closed to being solved.

Major stock indexes fell more than 4 percent.

http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x242975788/Dow-Jones-index-falls-erases-gains-for-year

Bill Gross : “debt super cycle.”

U.S.’s $13 Trillion Debt Poised to Overtake GDP

By Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is poised to increase the U.S. debt to a level that exceeds the value of the nation’s annual economic output, a step toward what Bill Gross called a “debt super cycle.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aa0cI64Gx.4E&pos=15

The CHART OF THE DAY tracks U.S. gross domestic product and the government’s total debt, which rose past $13 trillion for the first time this month. The amount owed will surpass GDP in 2012, based on forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The lower panel shows U.S. annual GDP growth as tracked by the IMF, which projects the world’s largest economy to expand at a slower pace than the 3.2 percent average during the past five decades.

“Over the long term, interest rates on government debt will likely have to rise to attract investors,” said Hiroki Shimazu, a market economist in Tokyo at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc., a unit of Japan’s third-largest publicly traded bank. “That will be a big burden on the government and the people.”

Gross, who runs the world’s largest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said in his June outlook report that “the debt super cycle trend” suggests U.S. economic growth won’t be enough to support the borrowings “if real interest rates were ever to go up instead of down.”

Dan Fuss, who manages the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund, which beat 94 percent of competitors the past year, said last week that he sold all of his Treasury bonds because of prospects interest rates will rise as the U.S. borrows unprecedented amounts. Obama is borrowing record amounts to fund spending programs to help the economy recover from its longest recession since the 1930s.

“The incremental borrower of funds in the U.S. capital markets is rapidly becoming the U.S. Treasury,” Boston-based Fuss said. “Do you really want to buy the debt of the biggest issuer?”

To contact the reporters on this story: Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net; Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 4, 2010 05:06 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aa0cI64Gx.4E&pos=15

Rating Cut by Fitch on Wealthiest U.S. State

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Rating Cut by Fitch on Wealthiest U.S. State

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/rating-cut-by-fitch-on-wealthiest-us.html

Connecticut is preparing to borrow $956 million to close a budget gap in the fiscal year beginning July 1, after borrowing money last year to cover a deficit of $947.6 million. Not good. Fitch has reduced the states credit rating from AA+ to AA.

“The downgrade reflects the state’s reduced financial flexibility, illustrated by its reliance on sizable debt issuances during the current biennium to close operating gaps in the context of already high liabilities,” Fitch said.

Connecticut is the wealthiest state on a per capita basis with personal income of $54,397 in 2009, according to Department of Commerce.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/rating-cut-by-fitch-on-wealthiest-us.html

The government’s finances have been “substantially worsened by the credit crisis, recession, and government spending to address these shocks,”

Moody’s Reiterates U.S. Spending Risks Credit Rating (Update1)

By Mary Childs

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az1YD_O3PXz4

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government’s Aaa bond rating will come under pressure in the future unless additional measures are taken to reduce projected record budget deficits, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc.

The U.S. retains its top rating for now because of a “high degree of economic and institutional strength,” the New York- based ratings company said in a statement today that was little changed from a credit opinion released in February. The outlook is stable, the statement said.

The government’s finances have been “substantially worsened by the credit crisis, recession, and government spending to address these shocks,” Moody’s analysts lead by Steven A. Hess wrote. “The ratios of general government debt to GDP and to revenue are deteriorating sharply, and after the crisis they are likely to be higher than the ratios of other Aaa-rated countries.”

Debt to revenue has more than doubled over the past three years and is now over 400 percent, which could lead to “potential stress” on finances, the report said.

“This whole financial crisis in Europe has actually benefitted the U.S. government in its access to finance,” Hess said in a telephone interview. “The U.S. Treasury market has become once again, as it was during the recent financial crisis globally, the safe haven, and therefore lots of money flows into the U.S. Treasury market and that is a very positive.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az1YD_O3PXz4

“bond vigilantes” : Supply fears start to hit Treasuries

Supply fears start to hit Treasuries
By Michael Mackenzie in New York and David Oakley in London

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c51fbbce-3908-11df-8970-00144feabdc0.html

Published: March 26 2010 19:18 | Last updated: March 26 2010 19:18

The bond vigilantes are finally flexing their muscles. A long period of stability for the US government bond market showed signs of cracking this week as a lack of investor appetite for new debt sent the benchmark 10-year yield to its highest level since last June.

For more than a year, analysts have been warning that record sized debt sales by the US Treasury were at odds with a 10-year yield sitting comfortably below 4 per cent. This week, the yield on 10-year notes jumped from 3.65 per cent to a peak of 3.92 per cent on Thursday. On Friday it was 3.87 per cent.

Falling inflation, rising unemployment, the housing market slump, the Federal Reserve’s policies of a near zero overnight borrowing rate and its purchase of up to $1,700bn in bonds have all helped keep Treasury yields near historic lows.

But this week the mood shifted as yields for $118bn of new US debt were much higher than forecast, sparking overall selling of Treasuries. Sentiment also deteriorated in the UK bond market after the government’s budget ahead of a general election expected in May failed to resolve doubts over future spending and debt reduction.

The term “bond vigilantes” was coined in the 1980s when bond investors pushed up long-term yields to force central banks into taking action to curb inflation. This time, bond investors are less worried about inflation: they are fretting about huge fiscal deficits and the looming bond supply needed to finance them.

“Everyone thought we would see rising rates due to higher inflation, but it appears the bond vigilantes are demanding a higher real rate due to concerns about Treasury issuance,” says George Goncalves, head of fixed income strategy at Nomura Securities.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c51fbbce-3908-11df-8970-00144feabdc0.html