On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.
James
Friday, May 20, 2005
Thursday, May 12, 2005
in the news this week
After three years of rising federal budget deficits, a surge of April tax receipts brought unexpected good news to fiscal policymakers -- the tide of government red ink appears to be receding. The Treasury Department this week reported there would be a $54 billion swing from projected deficit to surplus in the April-to-June quarter, after an unanticipated gush of tax payments poured into the Treasury before the April 15 deadline. That prompted private forecasters to lower their deficit projections for the fiscal year that ends in September.(Washington Post)
Up and down Wall Street yesterday, the refrain on trading desks was: Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing (in GM). (WSJ)
International Business Machines Corp., stung by weak financial results, will take a pretax charge of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion to cut jobs and restructure operations, primarily in Western Europe….IBM also signaled that it would turn its focus increasingly toward the lower-cost, higher-growth markets of Eastern Europe. "That clearly is the direction in which IBM should be going," said Bob Djurdjevic, an analyst at Annex Research in Phoenix. "These countries have barely been touched by" information technology. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON — The U.S. government has opened a criminal inquiry into suspected embezzlement by officials who failed to account for almost $100 million they disbursed for Iraqi reconstruction projects, federal investigators said Wednesday. (LA Times)
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has expressed "grave and growing concerns about the credibility and independence" of the U.N.'s inquiry, led by Volcker; and he has complained loudly about Volcker's refusal to let Parton and a second investigator cooperate with various congressional committees. (CNS.NEWS)
UNITED NATIONS - Two well-known European supporters of Saddam Hussein received large quantities of oil allocations in a bribery scheme devised under the oil-for-food program to gain political influence, according to a Senate report released yesterday. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - The United Nations is investigating whether a senior official at one of its agencies, Justin Leites, violated U.N. rules and the organization's spirit of international neutrality by taking a paid leave of absence last year to work as a Kerry-Edwards presidential campaign official in his home state of Maine.(NY SUN)
"If there is no progress, we have to think of other options, such as taking this matter to the United Nations Security Council." (Nobutaka Machimura The Japanese foreign minister threatened on Friday to purse the North Korean nuclear weapons program before the U.N. Security Council next month unless six-nation talks on the dispute show progress.)
UN nuclear watchdog Chief Mohammed ElBaradei has told US television his agency estimates that North Korea could have up to six nuclear weapons. (BBC)
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day on concern refiners in the U.S. and Europe will struggle to produce enough gasoline and diesel to meet rising demand.
May 11 (Bloomberg)-- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in half a year, as imports of consumer goods fell and exports grew to a record. The deficit dropped 9.2 percent from an all-time high of $60.6 billion in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists called for a deficit of $61.9 billion.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. employers created far more jobs in April than Wall Street expected, suggesting the economy may be regaining speed after hitting a "soft patch" in the first three months of the year. Non-farm payrolls grew by a robust 274,000 last month -- nearly a 100,000 more than financial markets expected, the Labor Department said Friday. The department also said employers created 93,000 more non-farm jobs in March and February, raising the monthly average for the year so far to a healthy 211,000. (WSJ)
The AARP is spending its members' money on opposing personal Social Security accounts, even though the accounts wouldn't affect most of the AARP's current members, who are too old to be affected by the policy changes. Most of the organization's members joined the AARP for discounts at hotels and on insurance, not to fund a lobbying campaign against President Bush's domestic agenda of putting their children's and grandchildren's retirement on a sounder financial footing. In an era with a renewed focus on boards' responsiveness to shareholders, it can't be long before some enterprising regulator, lawyer, or member-activist takes a careful look at what the AARP's self-perpetuating board has been up to in the name of the 35 million members that the group claims to represent (NY SUN)
``This is a case about mutual funds,'' Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson declared simply as he began describing the charges against Theodore Sihpol III, a former broker at Bank of America. (Bloomberg)
``You will see that this defendant, Theodore Sihpol III, motivated by financial gain and to aid and abet a hedge fund to make millions of dollars, intentionally and continually subverted the notion of mutuality.'' (Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson)'
To get a sense of how much prices might drop, check out the early 1990s performance of two of today's hotter (real-estate) markets, Boston and Los Angeles. According to Freddie Mac, prices in the greater Boston area sank 10% during the 30 months through mid-1992, while Los Angeles was hit with a grueling six-year 21% decline. (WSJ)
Up and down Wall Street yesterday, the refrain on trading desks was: Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing (in GM). (WSJ)
International Business Machines Corp., stung by weak financial results, will take a pretax charge of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion to cut jobs and restructure operations, primarily in Western Europe….IBM also signaled that it would turn its focus increasingly toward the lower-cost, higher-growth markets of Eastern Europe. "That clearly is the direction in which IBM should be going," said Bob Djurdjevic, an analyst at Annex Research in Phoenix. "These countries have barely been touched by" information technology. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON — The U.S. government has opened a criminal inquiry into suspected embezzlement by officials who failed to account for almost $100 million they disbursed for Iraqi reconstruction projects, federal investigators said Wednesday. (LA Times)
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has expressed "grave and growing concerns about the credibility and independence" of the U.N.'s inquiry, led by Volcker; and he has complained loudly about Volcker's refusal to let Parton and a second investigator cooperate with various congressional committees. (CNS.NEWS)
UNITED NATIONS - Two well-known European supporters of Saddam Hussein received large quantities of oil allocations in a bribery scheme devised under the oil-for-food program to gain political influence, according to a Senate report released yesterday. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - The United Nations is investigating whether a senior official at one of its agencies, Justin Leites, violated U.N. rules and the organization's spirit of international neutrality by taking a paid leave of absence last year to work as a Kerry-Edwards presidential campaign official in his home state of Maine.(NY SUN)
"If there is no progress, we have to think of other options, such as taking this matter to the United Nations Security Council." (Nobutaka Machimura The Japanese foreign minister threatened on Friday to purse the North Korean nuclear weapons program before the U.N. Security Council next month unless six-nation talks on the dispute show progress.)
UN nuclear watchdog Chief Mohammed ElBaradei has told US television his agency estimates that North Korea could have up to six nuclear weapons. (BBC)
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day on concern refiners in the U.S. and Europe will struggle to produce enough gasoline and diesel to meet rising demand.
May 11 (Bloomberg)-- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in half a year, as imports of consumer goods fell and exports grew to a record. The deficit dropped 9.2 percent from an all-time high of $60.6 billion in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists called for a deficit of $61.9 billion.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. employers created far more jobs in April than Wall Street expected, suggesting the economy may be regaining speed after hitting a "soft patch" in the first three months of the year. Non-farm payrolls grew by a robust 274,000 last month -- nearly a 100,000 more than financial markets expected, the Labor Department said Friday. The department also said employers created 93,000 more non-farm jobs in March and February, raising the monthly average for the year so far to a healthy 211,000. (WSJ)
The AARP is spending its members' money on opposing personal Social Security accounts, even though the accounts wouldn't affect most of the AARP's current members, who are too old to be affected by the policy changes. Most of the organization's members joined the AARP for discounts at hotels and on insurance, not to fund a lobbying campaign against President Bush's domestic agenda of putting their children's and grandchildren's retirement on a sounder financial footing. In an era with a renewed focus on boards' responsiveness to shareholders, it can't be long before some enterprising regulator, lawyer, or member-activist takes a careful look at what the AARP's self-perpetuating board has been up to in the name of the 35 million members that the group claims to represent (NY SUN)
``This is a case about mutual funds,'' Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson declared simply as he began describing the charges against Theodore Sihpol III, a former broker at Bank of America. (Bloomberg)
``You will see that this defendant, Theodore Sihpol III, motivated by financial gain and to aid and abet a hedge fund to make millions of dollars, intentionally and continually subverted the notion of mutuality.'' (Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson)'
To get a sense of how much prices might drop, check out the early 1990s performance of two of today's hotter (real-estate) markets, Boston and Los Angeles. According to Freddie Mac, prices in the greater Boston area sank 10% during the 30 months through mid-1992, while Los Angeles was hit with a grueling six-year 21% decline. (WSJ)
Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing
May 6,2005
Hello,
So did he get a “bloody Nose” or is the Anti-Bush Mainstream Media just a bunch of sore losers. Tony Blair’s victory signals nothing more than a resounding support for his policies. Without sounding like I am stating the obvious, the Party that picked up the most seats from Labor was the “Torries ,the party of Margaret Thatcher ”, in the US we would call them the “Conservatives” who were strongly in support of the War on Terror, are free market oriented and very suspicious of continental Europe. What should be gleaned form Prime Minister Blair’s victory is perhaps he wasn’t strong enough. The number one issue In Brittan was immigration, immigration, immigration! Listen up everyone, immigration! I said immigration……
The market continues its final shake down. I am just waiting for everyone to call and say no more stocks; I am going into real-estate because “I can’t lose any money.” That’s the buy signal I am waiting for. The real-estate investor is sounding like Tech investors in the late 1990’s to me.
The interesting thing is that there are so many takeovers, and stock buys backs going on. One can only conclude is that the people with the big money think the market is cheap no matter what they say. We are seeing the return of the LBO, merger mania and perhaps the dreaded “green mail”. Again I say what does Kirk Kerkorian know that we don’t .Those of you who do not know who he is simply google his name and think Chrysler 1980’s.
Will GM survive? GM has been over do for structural changes for some time, like 30 years, well hope springs eternal. Ah those pension plans GM, American Airlines and so on be wary they are based on the same “ponzi” principle that social security is based on. Be fore warned the same will happen to all “pensions” eventually. There is an inherent flaw in there design. The flaw of paying current retirees with current workers contributions will fail because of increases in productivity, changes in demographics and shifts in industrial development. Market based 401k’s type plans are the way of the future and of the present. The obsolete pension obligations of the past are creating a huge burden for tax payers and consumers. Is anybody listening?
Oil may not be as big of a deal as we all have been led to believe. Seems that in 1980 we spent 7% of our income on fuel and currently we spend 3%. Each dollar of GDP takes 50% less oil to create than in 1980. Perhaps high oil prices are more a measure of geopolitical uncertainty than a harbinger of economic slow down.
Lots of talk this week about the “Nuclear Option”, who will use is first, the Senate, the UN, North Korea, Iran , Al Qaida or George Bush either way it looks like we are in for some fireworks the next couple of months, which should add some volatility to the mix while the market finds its bottom.
I will be traveling next week on business ,to Berlin (Germany not Vermont or Conneticut)from the 13th to the 19th .On Friday May 20th I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation .
James
Hello,
So did he get a “bloody Nose” or is the Anti-Bush Mainstream Media just a bunch of sore losers. Tony Blair’s victory signals nothing more than a resounding support for his policies. Without sounding like I am stating the obvious, the Party that picked up the most seats from Labor was the “Torries ,the party of Margaret Thatcher ”, in the US we would call them the “Conservatives” who were strongly in support of the War on Terror, are free market oriented and very suspicious of continental Europe. What should be gleaned form Prime Minister Blair’s victory is perhaps he wasn’t strong enough. The number one issue In Brittan was immigration, immigration, immigration! Listen up everyone, immigration! I said immigration……
The market continues its final shake down. I am just waiting for everyone to call and say no more stocks; I am going into real-estate because “I can’t lose any money.” That’s the buy signal I am waiting for. The real-estate investor is sounding like Tech investors in the late 1990’s to me.
The interesting thing is that there are so many takeovers, and stock buys backs going on. One can only conclude is that the people with the big money think the market is cheap no matter what they say. We are seeing the return of the LBO, merger mania and perhaps the dreaded “green mail”. Again I say what does Kirk Kerkorian know that we don’t .Those of you who do not know who he is simply google his name and think Chrysler 1980’s.
Will GM survive? GM has been over do for structural changes for some time, like 30 years, well hope springs eternal. Ah those pension plans GM, American Airlines and so on be wary they are based on the same “ponzi” principle that social security is based on. Be fore warned the same will happen to all “pensions” eventually. There is an inherent flaw in there design. The flaw of paying current retirees with current workers contributions will fail because of increases in productivity, changes in demographics and shifts in industrial development. Market based 401k’s type plans are the way of the future and of the present. The obsolete pension obligations of the past are creating a huge burden for tax payers and consumers. Is anybody listening?
Oil may not be as big of a deal as we all have been led to believe. Seems that in 1980 we spent 7% of our income on fuel and currently we spend 3%. Each dollar of GDP takes 50% less oil to create than in 1980. Perhaps high oil prices are more a measure of geopolitical uncertainty than a harbinger of economic slow down.
Lots of talk this week about the “Nuclear Option”, who will use is first, the Senate, the UN, North Korea, Iran , Al Qaida or George Bush either way it looks like we are in for some fireworks the next couple of months, which should add some volatility to the mix while the market finds its bottom.
I will be traveling next week on business ,to Berlin (Germany not Vermont or Conneticut)from the 13th to the 19th .On Friday May 20th I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation .
James
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
in the news..
If you listen too hard to pessimistic pundits, you can get all lathered up over the risks of stagflation - slower growth and higher prices. Don't go there. This is not the 1970s. Money is sounder, tax rates are lower, productivity and profits are much higher, and world trade is more open. Today's technology-streamlined and deregulated economy is not inflation-prone. (Larry Kudlow, NY SUN)
A major study by the National Association of Manufacturers in 2003 showed that even during the most recent recession, 80% of manufacturers had a moderate to serious shortage of production workers, machinists and craftworkers. The group predicts that manufacturers will need as many as 10 million new skilled workers by 2020, in part to replace the aging boomers who make up a large part of the 14 million manufacturing jobs today. (WSJ)
SEATTLE -- As Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) prepares to release the next generation of its Xbox gaming console in several weeks, Chairman Bill Gates said he believes the company is in a position to compete for the No. 1 spot with Sony Corp. (SNE) and its Playstation franchise. (WSJ)
In a recent interview, General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for forgiveness toward the people who have harbored and abetted the terrorists who perpetrated the 9/11 attacks on America. His answer was classic Schwartzkopf. The General said, “I believe that forgiving them is God's function. OUR job is to arrange the meeting."
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea Monday that the U.S. had "significant" capability in the Pacific region to deter the Stalinist state's nuclear ambitions.
North Korea, meanwhile, denounced President Bush on Saturday as a "hooligan" and said it doesn't expect a solution to the standoff over its nuclear program during his tenure. The escalating rhetoric was followed Sunday by a test-firing of a North Korean short-range missile into the Sea of Japan (PJStar.com)
WASHINGTON – Former CIA chief James Woolsey affirms the work of a special commission investigating the threat of a nuclear-bomb generated electromagnetic pulse attack on the U.S. by rogue states or terrorists and is urging the country to take steps necessary to protect against the potentially devastating consequences. (By Joseph Farah WorldNetDaily.com)
Affirmative action produces no concrete benefits for minority students and actually has several harmful effects, according to a new report by the Cato Institute.” Recent research shows that college admissions preferences do not offer even the practical benefits claimed by their supporters," writes Marie Gryphon, a lawyer and policy analyst with the Cato Institute's Center for Educational Freedom. (NEWS MAX)
Mr. Volcker's weekend phone calls did not sit well with legislators. "We should have an opportunity to talk" to the two investigators, Senator Coleman, a Republican of Minnesota, told CNN yesterday. "I am very disturbed that they [the United Nations] assert some kind of immunity." (BENNY AVNI, NY SUN)
A US senator who has repeatedly called for the resignation of UN chief Kofi Annan over the Iraq oil-for-food scandal has raised the prospect that tapes may exist directly implicating the Secretary-General in wrongdoing. (David Nason, the Australian)
Charles Pasqua,( Union for Europe of the Nations Group, Chairman) a former French minister of interior, has emerged as one of the highest-ranking targets of the widening investigations into the Iraq oil-for-food scandal, writes Claudio Gatti. (FT)
The deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmoud Al-Sayyid Ahmad Al-Habib, made a similar appearance on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV, on April 8, 2004, and said, "The truth is that the resistance, whether in Iraq or in Palestine ... defends the nation's honor ... Therefore, the issue ... martyrdom (i.e., suicide) operations carried out by boys and girls, and also the operations carried out by the Iraqi resistance - these redeem self-confidence and hope, because a nation that does not excel at the industry of death does not deserve life." (NY SUN)
CAIRO, Egypt -- Followers of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would attack the White House or the Vatican if their leader chooses to target those sites, the al-Qaida in Iraq's deputy chief purportedly said in an Internet statement posted Monday. The written statement, signed in the name of Abu Abdel-Rahman al-Iraqi, also threatened to attack Iraqi security forces and officials, including incoming Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite Muslim. (NEWS MAX)
A major study by the National Association of Manufacturers in 2003 showed that even during the most recent recession, 80% of manufacturers had a moderate to serious shortage of production workers, machinists and craftworkers. The group predicts that manufacturers will need as many as 10 million new skilled workers by 2020, in part to replace the aging boomers who make up a large part of the 14 million manufacturing jobs today. (WSJ)
SEATTLE -- As Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) prepares to release the next generation of its Xbox gaming console in several weeks, Chairman Bill Gates said he believes the company is in a position to compete for the No. 1 spot with Sony Corp. (SNE) and its Playstation franchise. (WSJ)
In a recent interview, General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for forgiveness toward the people who have harbored and abetted the terrorists who perpetrated the 9/11 attacks on America. His answer was classic Schwartzkopf. The General said, “I believe that forgiving them is God's function. OUR job is to arrange the meeting."
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea Monday that the U.S. had "significant" capability in the Pacific region to deter the Stalinist state's nuclear ambitions.
North Korea, meanwhile, denounced President Bush on Saturday as a "hooligan" and said it doesn't expect a solution to the standoff over its nuclear program during his tenure. The escalating rhetoric was followed Sunday by a test-firing of a North Korean short-range missile into the Sea of Japan (PJStar.com)
WASHINGTON – Former CIA chief James Woolsey affirms the work of a special commission investigating the threat of a nuclear-bomb generated electromagnetic pulse attack on the U.S. by rogue states or terrorists and is urging the country to take steps necessary to protect against the potentially devastating consequences. (By Joseph Farah WorldNetDaily.com)
Affirmative action produces no concrete benefits for minority students and actually has several harmful effects, according to a new report by the Cato Institute.” Recent research shows that college admissions preferences do not offer even the practical benefits claimed by their supporters," writes Marie Gryphon, a lawyer and policy analyst with the Cato Institute's Center for Educational Freedom. (NEWS MAX)
Mr. Volcker's weekend phone calls did not sit well with legislators. "We should have an opportunity to talk" to the two investigators, Senator Coleman, a Republican of Minnesota, told CNN yesterday. "I am very disturbed that they [the United Nations] assert some kind of immunity." (BENNY AVNI, NY SUN)
A US senator who has repeatedly called for the resignation of UN chief Kofi Annan over the Iraq oil-for-food scandal has raised the prospect that tapes may exist directly implicating the Secretary-General in wrongdoing. (David Nason, the Australian)
Charles Pasqua,( Union for Europe of the Nations Group, Chairman) a former French minister of interior, has emerged as one of the highest-ranking targets of the widening investigations into the Iraq oil-for-food scandal, writes Claudio Gatti. (FT)
The deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmoud Al-Sayyid Ahmad Al-Habib, made a similar appearance on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV, on April 8, 2004, and said, "The truth is that the resistance, whether in Iraq or in Palestine ... defends the nation's honor ... Therefore, the issue ... martyrdom (i.e., suicide) operations carried out by boys and girls, and also the operations carried out by the Iraqi resistance - these redeem self-confidence and hope, because a nation that does not excel at the industry of death does not deserve life." (NY SUN)
CAIRO, Egypt -- Followers of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would attack the White House or the Vatican if their leader chooses to target those sites, the al-Qaida in Iraq's deputy chief purportedly said in an Internet statement posted Monday. The written statement, signed in the name of Abu Abdel-Rahman al-Iraqi, also threatened to attack Iraqi security forces and officials, including incoming Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite Muslim. (NEWS MAX)
run away bride......
May 3,2005
James
Will the FED start to single it is winding down it’s interest rate increases. The continued good performance of utility stocks would suggest the end of the rate raise is in sight and perhaps inflation is much tamer than we all have been led to believe. Utilities historical have traded well in a declining interest rate or flat interest rate environments. The pundit’s continue to be wrong on every issue. The current thinking is “how can the FED curb raising inflation in a slowing economy with out slowing the economy further”. My view is vastly different, the current slow down is more seasonal than fundamental. The summer brings us longer days, baseball, golf, lots of vacations, BBQ’s and good times with friends and family. There is always, I repeat always a bit of and economic slowdown during the spring and summer months because individuals and businesses enjoy the weather and put off major purchases till the fall. The annalists and the pundit’s seize on the summer doldrums as proof of our of our very destruction, speculating that the fall of western civilization is upon us do to out decadent lifestyle, but alas the season changes and the economic cycle will breed anew. The second issue of growing inflation is simply nonsense. What’s interesting is that the dollar is now rising against most major currencies; inflation would have the entirely opposite effect. As I have said be for the FED flooded the US economy with liquidity in an attempt to avoid a great depression style deflationary spiral. As the fears of deflation have abated the FED began to tighten up the reins. What you’re seeing is the liquidity bubbling up into the economy causing the inflation rate to go from negative to a slight positive. The inflation rate remains low and if not for higher energy prices the rate would be almost nonexistent. Forget all this ridiculous talk of stagflation. For those of you lucky enough not to remember stagflation was a economic period in the late 1970’s during the Carter Administration .Inflation and interest rates were in the 20% level, unemployment was climbing to well over the current levels at 7.7%, GDP growth was under 1% .Basically there was no growth and very high inflation and high unemployment, a very different story from today’s GDP growth rate of 3.1%, barley 3% interest rates and 5.4% unemployment.
James
James
Will the FED start to single it is winding down it’s interest rate increases. The continued good performance of utility stocks would suggest the end of the rate raise is in sight and perhaps inflation is much tamer than we all have been led to believe. Utilities historical have traded well in a declining interest rate or flat interest rate environments. The pundit’s continue to be wrong on every issue. The current thinking is “how can the FED curb raising inflation in a slowing economy with out slowing the economy further”. My view is vastly different, the current slow down is more seasonal than fundamental. The summer brings us longer days, baseball, golf, lots of vacations, BBQ’s and good times with friends and family. There is always, I repeat always a bit of and economic slowdown during the spring and summer months because individuals and businesses enjoy the weather and put off major purchases till the fall. The annalists and the pundit’s seize on the summer doldrums as proof of our of our very destruction, speculating that the fall of western civilization is upon us do to out decadent lifestyle, but alas the season changes and the economic cycle will breed anew. The second issue of growing inflation is simply nonsense. What’s interesting is that the dollar is now rising against most major currencies; inflation would have the entirely opposite effect. As I have said be for the FED flooded the US economy with liquidity in an attempt to avoid a great depression style deflationary spiral. As the fears of deflation have abated the FED began to tighten up the reins. What you’re seeing is the liquidity bubbling up into the economy causing the inflation rate to go from negative to a slight positive. The inflation rate remains low and if not for higher energy prices the rate would be almost nonexistent. Forget all this ridiculous talk of stagflation. For those of you lucky enough not to remember stagflation was a economic period in the late 1970’s during the Carter Administration .Inflation and interest rates were in the 20% level, unemployment was climbing to well over the current levels at 7.7%, GDP growth was under 1% .Basically there was no growth and very high inflation and high unemployment, a very different story from today’s GDP growth rate of 3.1%, barley 3% interest rates and 5.4% unemployment.
James
Monday, May 02, 2005
in the news
The U.S. has quietly warned China that North Korea could be preparing for a nuclear-weapons test and asked the Chinese to urge Pyongyang to desist, according to a U.S. official. (Matt Drudge)
Europe, the new Pope has written, “appears to be at the start of its decline and fall.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
In choosing Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger to succeed Pope John Paul II as Pope Benedict XVI, the Catholic Church has cast a vote for the survival of Europe and the West. “Europe will be Islamic by the end of the century,” historian Bernard Lewis predicted not long ago; however, judging from the writings of the new Pope, he is not likely to be sanguine about this transition. For one thing, the new Pope seems to be aware of the grave danger Europeans face: he has called upon Europe to recover its Christian roots “if it truly wants to survive.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
Tehran, Apr. 20 – Iran’s southern Khuzestan province was the scene of further chaos today as another round of fierce fighting erupted between people and government forces, following severe clashes several days ago which left dozens dead and hundreds wounded or arrested. The latest clashes broke out this morning between Iran’s State Security Forces (SSF) and local residents in several districts of the city of Ahwaz, including Kut Abdullah, Kian and Khashayar. (IRAN FOCUS)
TEHRAN, April 21 (Reuters) - Around 400 volunteers signed up in Tehran to sacrifice their lives in "occupied Islamic countries" on Wednesday night, inspired by a fatwa from a top hardline cleric giving religious backing to suicide missions.
"Two hundred out of 344 arrested people have been released," Amir Khani, state prosecutor in Khuzestan's capital Ahwaz, said on Wednesday. "The rest could be released on bail if their families pay. The main people responsible for the disorder number at least 10, and they will be strongly confronted by the judiciary. "During the violence, which began on Friday and continued until Sunday, groups of Iranian-Arabs smashed and set fire to police cars, banks and government offices and clashed with security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. (Ethnic unrest broke out in mainly Arab Khuzestan region on Friday Aljazeera.net)
PARIS – Saudi Arabia, facing mounting pressure from the U.S. and others to step up output of oil and gas amid a surge in prices, plans to more than double its investment in energy development to $50 billion in the next five years from the previous five-year period. (WSJ)
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said China will unpeg its currency from the dollar "sooner rather than later" because the policy poses a growing threat to China's own economy. (WSJ)
For the past few weeks, stocks have been in a pattern of sharp bounces after steep declines, said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. In April, however, Fridays have been lethal for stocks. Blue chips have declined sharply in the three previous Fridays this month, for a total loss of 353.37 points. The month of April is on track to be one of the worst in 35 years if the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses 30 points today. (WSJ)
UNITED NATIONS — Paul Volcker (search) told FOX News his committee isn't going soft on U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in the Oil-for-Food investigation and denies that there was any conflict of interest over his link to a U.N. official being questioned in the probe (FOX NEWS)
NEW YORK — A former senior investigator from the independent probe into allegations of corruption in the U.N. Oil-for-Food (search) program confirmed Saturday that he had resigned to protest a report clearing U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan of meddling in the operation. (FOX NEWS)
"I said to him the other day, 'George, if you really want to end tyranny in this world, you're going to have to stay up later,"' Laura Bush said. "Nine o'clock and Mr. Excitement here is in bed, and I am watching 'Desperate Housewives' -- with Lynne Cheney. Ladies and gentlemen, I am a desperate housewife." (First Lady Laura Bush)
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett said he maintained a more than $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar even after it cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million the first quarter.
Europe, the new Pope has written, “appears to be at the start of its decline and fall.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
In choosing Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger to succeed Pope John Paul II as Pope Benedict XVI, the Catholic Church has cast a vote for the survival of Europe and the West. “Europe will be Islamic by the end of the century,” historian Bernard Lewis predicted not long ago; however, judging from the writings of the new Pope, he is not likely to be sanguine about this transition. For one thing, the new Pope seems to be aware of the grave danger Europeans face: he has called upon Europe to recover its Christian roots “if it truly wants to survive.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
Tehran, Apr. 20 – Iran’s southern Khuzestan province was the scene of further chaos today as another round of fierce fighting erupted between people and government forces, following severe clashes several days ago which left dozens dead and hundreds wounded or arrested. The latest clashes broke out this morning between Iran’s State Security Forces (SSF) and local residents in several districts of the city of Ahwaz, including Kut Abdullah, Kian and Khashayar. (IRAN FOCUS)
TEHRAN, April 21 (Reuters) - Around 400 volunteers signed up in Tehran to sacrifice their lives in "occupied Islamic countries" on Wednesday night, inspired by a fatwa from a top hardline cleric giving religious backing to suicide missions.
"Two hundred out of 344 arrested people have been released," Amir Khani, state prosecutor in Khuzestan's capital Ahwaz, said on Wednesday. "The rest could be released on bail if their families pay. The main people responsible for the disorder number at least 10, and they will be strongly confronted by the judiciary. "During the violence, which began on Friday and continued until Sunday, groups of Iranian-Arabs smashed and set fire to police cars, banks and government offices and clashed with security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. (Ethnic unrest broke out in mainly Arab Khuzestan region on Friday Aljazeera.net)
PARIS – Saudi Arabia, facing mounting pressure from the U.S. and others to step up output of oil and gas amid a surge in prices, plans to more than double its investment in energy development to $50 billion in the next five years from the previous five-year period. (WSJ)
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said China will unpeg its currency from the dollar "sooner rather than later" because the policy poses a growing threat to China's own economy. (WSJ)
For the past few weeks, stocks have been in a pattern of sharp bounces after steep declines, said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. In April, however, Fridays have been lethal for stocks. Blue chips have declined sharply in the three previous Fridays this month, for a total loss of 353.37 points. The month of April is on track to be one of the worst in 35 years if the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses 30 points today. (WSJ)
UNITED NATIONS — Paul Volcker (search) told FOX News his committee isn't going soft on U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in the Oil-for-Food investigation and denies that there was any conflict of interest over his link to a U.N. official being questioned in the probe (FOX NEWS)
NEW YORK — A former senior investigator from the independent probe into allegations of corruption in the U.N. Oil-for-Food (search) program confirmed Saturday that he had resigned to protest a report clearing U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan of meddling in the operation. (FOX NEWS)
"I said to him the other day, 'George, if you really want to end tyranny in this world, you're going to have to stay up later,"' Laura Bush said. "Nine o'clock and Mr. Excitement here is in bed, and I am watching 'Desperate Housewives' -- with Lynne Cheney. Ladies and gentlemen, I am a desperate housewife." (First Lady Laura Bush)
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett said he maintained a more than $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar even after it cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million the first quarter.
The Great Crusade
April 21, 2005
Hello,
The Cardinals have made an amazing shrewd choice with the choice of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger .In one move the Cardinals have joined the war on terror and the war against international one world government George Soros socialism. Meanwhile the President did something even more astonishing .Merely by holding hands with a Saudi King oil prices plunged more than 4% and below $50 a barrel for the first time in some time. The gesture sent out a simple message simultaneously reiterating confidence, legitimacy and a special friendship to the Kingdom of Saud and recognition of the law of diminishing returns, were by to high of oil prices lead to permanent conservation which in the long run leads to a decline in oil demand.
As for the market well the choices available may not have the same impact. The energy sectors seems the place to be, with drugs and health care looking to make a come back. What happened last week you ask? A very over extended market to the down side produced what looks to be the signal that that things are going to start moving in a positive direction. Remember the NASDQ is still down over 60% form it’s 2000 highs ,yet earning have increased nearly 50%. The one day burst of 200 plus points to the up side, with advancers out pacing decliners 3-1 and up volume led declining volume 5-1 with very heavy volume. Yes it could be short covering and yes it could be a one up day on the way down but in my view the market has put the brakes on the down ward slide. The follow up rally on Friday April 29th would suggest that this is the beginning of something big. Like I said be fore it still could take some time to build a head of steam.
The market continues to trade like it is looking for the final bottom. It could be several months or a matter of days. In the years since the March 2000 meltdown all the rules have been tossed out the window. We had a prolonged period of low volume sell downs. We have had information and pricing break downs. Then nothing more than a bit of a post 9/11 dead cat bounce. Now the signals of the grand finely are upon us. In a rare occurrence the percent of Bearish Advisors has become greater than the percent of Bullish advisors, in fact Bearish advisors out pace the Bulls by almost 20%, historically that suggest a big rally is coming. Since October of last year we have seen an unprecedented amount of corporate repurchasing of there own company stock. Also signaling that there are good value’s out there is the reigniting of corporate takeovers and mergers. We are all just so glum. Lots bad economic data followed by lots good data, but lets face it with a GDP growth rate of 3.1% ,home ownership at a record high, and an unemployment rate of 5.3% it is simply impossible to make a historical negative argument. The Facts just get in the way. Especially given Europe and Japan’s GDP for sometime have been growing at less then 1% and Europe’s unemployment rate hovers near 11%, with trade and budget deficits comparable to ours. Perhaps it may take tax refunds or the rumor that Microsoft is beginning to see the light on some new grand technology. It seems all we need is a little exuberance irrational or otherwise to get this thing going.
James
Hello,
The Cardinals have made an amazing shrewd choice with the choice of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger .In one move the Cardinals have joined the war on terror and the war against international one world government George Soros socialism. Meanwhile the President did something even more astonishing .Merely by holding hands with a Saudi King oil prices plunged more than 4% and below $50 a barrel for the first time in some time. The gesture sent out a simple message simultaneously reiterating confidence, legitimacy and a special friendship to the Kingdom of Saud and recognition of the law of diminishing returns, were by to high of oil prices lead to permanent conservation which in the long run leads to a decline in oil demand.
As for the market well the choices available may not have the same impact. The energy sectors seems the place to be, with drugs and health care looking to make a come back. What happened last week you ask? A very over extended market to the down side produced what looks to be the signal that that things are going to start moving in a positive direction. Remember the NASDQ is still down over 60% form it’s 2000 highs ,yet earning have increased nearly 50%. The one day burst of 200 plus points to the up side, with advancers out pacing decliners 3-1 and up volume led declining volume 5-1 with very heavy volume. Yes it could be short covering and yes it could be a one up day on the way down but in my view the market has put the brakes on the down ward slide. The follow up rally on Friday April 29th would suggest that this is the beginning of something big. Like I said be fore it still could take some time to build a head of steam.
The market continues to trade like it is looking for the final bottom. It could be several months or a matter of days. In the years since the March 2000 meltdown all the rules have been tossed out the window. We had a prolonged period of low volume sell downs. We have had information and pricing break downs. Then nothing more than a bit of a post 9/11 dead cat bounce. Now the signals of the grand finely are upon us. In a rare occurrence the percent of Bearish Advisors has become greater than the percent of Bullish advisors, in fact Bearish advisors out pace the Bulls by almost 20%, historically that suggest a big rally is coming. Since October of last year we have seen an unprecedented amount of corporate repurchasing of there own company stock. Also signaling that there are good value’s out there is the reigniting of corporate takeovers and mergers. We are all just so glum. Lots bad economic data followed by lots good data, but lets face it with a GDP growth rate of 3.1% ,home ownership at a record high, and an unemployment rate of 5.3% it is simply impossible to make a historical negative argument. The Facts just get in the way. Especially given Europe and Japan’s GDP for sometime have been growing at less then 1% and Europe’s unemployment rate hovers near 11%, with trade and budget deficits comparable to ours. Perhaps it may take tax refunds or the rumor that Microsoft is beginning to see the light on some new grand technology. It seems all we need is a little exuberance irrational or otherwise to get this thing going.
James
Thursday, April 21, 2005
this week's headlines
On April 19 2001, Augusto Giangrandi, a Chilean arms dealer currently the subject of half a dozen US and international investigations, ordered a discreet payment to an Iraqi company in Jordan. The transaction would ensure his supply of millions of barrels of Iraqi oil. "We need to send an additional US 30,000," he wrote to his Italian partner. "For your info, il magro is sending an additional 520 K in euros equivalent in order to cover shortages." (FT)
"We are here to see Mr Giangrandi," they barked to a secretary. The men wanted to discuss the latest foray by Augusto Giangrandi, a Chilean-Italian former arms dealer, into the murky world of Iraqi oil sales. (FT)
Dramatically broadening the scandal surrounding the United Nations Oil-for-Food program, federal authorities in New York today charged David B. Chalmers, a Houston oil trader, and his company, Bayoil, with making millions of dollars in illegal kickback payments to Iraq while trading oil under the program. (NYT)
The complaint says two Turtle Bay officials, identified only as "U.N. Official #1" and "U.N. Official #2," were targeted for bribery by Mr. Park, a Korean businessman who was the main figure in a 1970s-era Washington influence-peddling scandal known as "Korea-gate." Mr. Park is now accused of acting illegally as an unregistered agent for Saddam. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - A Canadian tycoon who is a special adviser to Secretary-General Annan yesterday acknowledged that since at least 1997 he has had business and other dealings with Tongsun Park, the Korean influence-peddler who was identified in a federal criminal complaint last week as an unregistered Iraqi agent targeting U.N. officials for bribery. (BENNY AVNI NY SUN)
WASHINGTON (AP) - People scurrying to meet tonight's tax deadline might consider this: It's taking you and your fellow Americans 6.6 billion hours to do all that paperwork. The basic tax return - the Form 1040 filed by most people every year - accounts for 1.6 billion hours.
initial excavations have substantiated the accounts of witnesses to a number of massacres. If the estimated body counts prove correct, the new graves would be among the largest in the grim tally of mass killings that have gradually come to light since the fall of Mr. Hussein's government two years ago. At least 290 grave sites containing the remains of some 300,000 people have been found since the American invasion two years ago, Iraqi officials say. (NYT)
BEIJING (AP) - China on Sunday rebuffed Tokyo's demands for an apology after sometimes violent anti-Japanese demonstrations, while new protests took place in several cities over perceived efforts by Japan to gloss over its wartime history and to gain a permanent U.N. Security Council seat.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) may use remotely piloted airborne vehicles to patrol the country's southern border later this year, according to an online announcement the second such notice in less than a month. The department's Bureau of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on Wednesday issued a request for information (RFI) on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and support systems. The latest RFI seeks information on a system with a medium-altitude long-endurance vehicle and technology to control it from the ground. Initially, the system is intended to be used on "the southern border" of the United States, it says. (Zack Phillips from The Congressional Quarterly)
Terrorism is like cancer, if not encountered it will grow and destroy everything on its path. It is generally defined as the unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons. By this or any other accepted definition of terrorism, the inception, growth and survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a system, is based on terrorism. (Iran va Jahan, Shaheen Fatemi)
Yemen's military said the have routed Iranian-backed insurgents in an offensive near the Saudi border. For the fifth straight day, Yemeni main battle tanks and artillery pounded strongholds of the Believing Youth movement in the Saada province. Yemeni government sources said Special Forces units raided several hideouts of the Shi'ite insurgency group in the area of Razamat about 240 kilometers north of Sanaa as dozens of fighters surrendered. Many of the insurgents were said to have fled north toward the border with Saudi Arabia as fighting was reported to have died down over the last day. Yemeni sources said more than 200 people have been killed in the fighting, including the No. 2 member of insurgency movement, Middle East Newsline reported. (World Tribune.com)
Something astounding occurred last week at France, is the way it was put in a wire to us by one of our correspondents in Gaul, Michel Gurfinkiel. It seems that President Chirac went on television to defend the European Constitution. He was on for two hours and discussed the matter with what Mr. Gurfinkiel characterizes as all kinds of young people. Yet a day later, opposition to the constitution in France soared to 56% from 53%. This has sent the various elites into a continental lather in advance of France's referendum on the constitution, which is set for May 29. It seems the European Constitution won't go into effect unless all 25 nations of the European Union approve the document. (NY SUN)
"We are here to see Mr Giangrandi," they barked to a secretary. The men wanted to discuss the latest foray by Augusto Giangrandi, a Chilean-Italian former arms dealer, into the murky world of Iraqi oil sales. (FT)
Dramatically broadening the scandal surrounding the United Nations Oil-for-Food program, federal authorities in New York today charged David B. Chalmers, a Houston oil trader, and his company, Bayoil, with making millions of dollars in illegal kickback payments to Iraq while trading oil under the program. (NYT)
The complaint says two Turtle Bay officials, identified only as "U.N. Official #1" and "U.N. Official #2," were targeted for bribery by Mr. Park, a Korean businessman who was the main figure in a 1970s-era Washington influence-peddling scandal known as "Korea-gate." Mr. Park is now accused of acting illegally as an unregistered agent for Saddam. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - A Canadian tycoon who is a special adviser to Secretary-General Annan yesterday acknowledged that since at least 1997 he has had business and other dealings with Tongsun Park, the Korean influence-peddler who was identified in a federal criminal complaint last week as an unregistered Iraqi agent targeting U.N. officials for bribery. (BENNY AVNI NY SUN)
WASHINGTON (AP) - People scurrying to meet tonight's tax deadline might consider this: It's taking you and your fellow Americans 6.6 billion hours to do all that paperwork. The basic tax return - the Form 1040 filed by most people every year - accounts for 1.6 billion hours.
initial excavations have substantiated the accounts of witnesses to a number of massacres. If the estimated body counts prove correct, the new graves would be among the largest in the grim tally of mass killings that have gradually come to light since the fall of Mr. Hussein's government two years ago. At least 290 grave sites containing the remains of some 300,000 people have been found since the American invasion two years ago, Iraqi officials say. (NYT)
BEIJING (AP) - China on Sunday rebuffed Tokyo's demands for an apology after sometimes violent anti-Japanese demonstrations, while new protests took place in several cities over perceived efforts by Japan to gloss over its wartime history and to gain a permanent U.N. Security Council seat.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) may use remotely piloted airborne vehicles to patrol the country's southern border later this year, according to an online announcement the second such notice in less than a month. The department's Bureau of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on Wednesday issued a request for information (RFI) on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and support systems. The latest RFI seeks information on a system with a medium-altitude long-endurance vehicle and technology to control it from the ground. Initially, the system is intended to be used on "the southern border" of the United States, it says. (Zack Phillips from The Congressional Quarterly)
Terrorism is like cancer, if not encountered it will grow and destroy everything on its path. It is generally defined as the unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons. By this or any other accepted definition of terrorism, the inception, growth and survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a system, is based on terrorism. (Iran va Jahan, Shaheen Fatemi)
Yemen's military said the have routed Iranian-backed insurgents in an offensive near the Saudi border. For the fifth straight day, Yemeni main battle tanks and artillery pounded strongholds of the Believing Youth movement in the Saada province. Yemeni government sources said Special Forces units raided several hideouts of the Shi'ite insurgency group in the area of Razamat about 240 kilometers north of Sanaa as dozens of fighters surrendered. Many of the insurgents were said to have fled north toward the border with Saudi Arabia as fighting was reported to have died down over the last day. Yemeni sources said more than 200 people have been killed in the fighting, including the No. 2 member of insurgency movement, Middle East Newsline reported. (World Tribune.com)
Something astounding occurred last week at France, is the way it was put in a wire to us by one of our correspondents in Gaul, Michel Gurfinkiel. It seems that President Chirac went on television to defend the European Constitution. He was on for two hours and discussed the matter with what Mr. Gurfinkiel characterizes as all kinds of young people. Yet a day later, opposition to the constitution in France soared to 56% from 53%. This has sent the various elites into a continental lather in advance of France's referendum on the constitution, which is set for May 29. It seems the European Constitution won't go into effect unless all 25 nations of the European Union approve the document. (NY SUN)
waiting for the smoke to clear...................
April 17 2005
Hello,
The markets certainly hate uncertainty. The recent sell off has given way to sector rotation with drugs and healthcare stocks taking the lead .Energy still looks to be the place to be . The pricing in of terrorism in the market has been getting a very hard hitting revision. Given the latest moves the fighting season may coincide with the summer driving season. The problem with pondering the imponderable is that it usually comes in a form and from and place you would least suspect. The market senses mid east tensions are again beginning to mount. Egypt has been added to the list of political hot spots along with Syria, Lebanon and Iran. These events have currently upped the ante in the global risk paradigm.
Another recent addition is the increased tension in Asia. The US is rearming and pushing to place Japan on the Security Council at the UN. Recently Japan signed on to the US policy to defend Taiwan against aggression. A rearmed Japan is a terrifying prospect for most of Asia. China which suffered terrible hardship under the Japanese occupation during World War Two is feeling acutely threatened. Friction between Japan and China is the worst it has been in 30 years or more. Add the already unstable North Korea and strong terror movements in Indonesia and the Philippians and you have brewing a recipe for trouble.
Meanwhile it is becoming reasonably clear to everyone that because of the UN oil for fraud program, the UN was in the pocket of Saddam Hussein. It now looks as if the war and the bloodshed could have been avoided if the UN had not taken the payoffs and done it’s job and enforced it’s own sanctions. The oil for fraud programs looks to have not only bought the favor of many of the Security Council members such as France and Germany but also global power brokers deep in the halls of many governments. So deep and so vast that the oil for fraud could be considered part of the social welfare fabric for many countries. Saddam used the program to buy favors and insulate himself from criticism or removal. Many on the 38th floor of the UN are now facing questions as to what did they know and when did they know it. The scandal seems to encompass everyone except one notable exception; Halliburton.
On the domestic side this week is dominated by first the tax day hangover and then Corporate Earnings. The bad earning usually hit the tape early; with better earnings filtering in as the week goes on. The pundits have gotten even more negative and the fund managers have followed suite. The market looks very over sold to me yet recent economic data is showing a slowing of the industrial and real-estate sectors. Again the jury is out weather these data releases indicate a trend. I remain primarily bullish and look at the short term volatility in the market as buying opportunities. The bearishness of the pundits and press compels me to remain bullish .The consistency of the press being always wrong when it comes to investing is mind boggling at times. This week the New York Times was touting a hot real-estate market, wow run for your life that’s one party that may be near the end.
James
Hello,
The markets certainly hate uncertainty. The recent sell off has given way to sector rotation with drugs and healthcare stocks taking the lead .Energy still looks to be the place to be . The pricing in of terrorism in the market has been getting a very hard hitting revision. Given the latest moves the fighting season may coincide with the summer driving season. The problem with pondering the imponderable is that it usually comes in a form and from and place you would least suspect. The market senses mid east tensions are again beginning to mount. Egypt has been added to the list of political hot spots along with Syria, Lebanon and Iran. These events have currently upped the ante in the global risk paradigm.
Another recent addition is the increased tension in Asia. The US is rearming and pushing to place Japan on the Security Council at the UN. Recently Japan signed on to the US policy to defend Taiwan against aggression. A rearmed Japan is a terrifying prospect for most of Asia. China which suffered terrible hardship under the Japanese occupation during World War Two is feeling acutely threatened. Friction between Japan and China is the worst it has been in 30 years or more. Add the already unstable North Korea and strong terror movements in Indonesia and the Philippians and you have brewing a recipe for trouble.
Meanwhile it is becoming reasonably clear to everyone that because of the UN oil for fraud program, the UN was in the pocket of Saddam Hussein. It now looks as if the war and the bloodshed could have been avoided if the UN had not taken the payoffs and done it’s job and enforced it’s own sanctions. The oil for fraud programs looks to have not only bought the favor of many of the Security Council members such as France and Germany but also global power brokers deep in the halls of many governments. So deep and so vast that the oil for fraud could be considered part of the social welfare fabric for many countries. Saddam used the program to buy favors and insulate himself from criticism or removal. Many on the 38th floor of the UN are now facing questions as to what did they know and when did they know it. The scandal seems to encompass everyone except one notable exception; Halliburton.
On the domestic side this week is dominated by first the tax day hangover and then Corporate Earnings. The bad earning usually hit the tape early; with better earnings filtering in as the week goes on. The pundits have gotten even more negative and the fund managers have followed suite. The market looks very over sold to me yet recent economic data is showing a slowing of the industrial and real-estate sectors. Again the jury is out weather these data releases indicate a trend. I remain primarily bullish and look at the short term volatility in the market as buying opportunities. The bearishness of the pundits and press compels me to remain bullish .The consistency of the press being always wrong when it comes to investing is mind boggling at times. This week the New York Times was touting a hot real-estate market, wow run for your life that’s one party that may be near the end.
James
Friday, April 15, 2005
"there is a palpable sense of frustration"
April 11, 2005
Hello,
One of the trends (increasing oil prices, low inflation, low interest rates and a declining dollar) I spoke several weeks ago has made what seems to be a fundamental shift in the direction of its movement. Ever since the Condi and then the Presidential visit to Europe and many of the Europeans squawked about how the declining dollar had impinged on their ability to do trade with the rest of the world. The dollar has miraculously switched direction and slowly trended up ward. But what about the trade deficit, the budget deficit and the Iraq war you say. The truth is and always was that the decline in the dollar had nothing to do with the rest of the world passing judgment on the fate of America and the American economy. The declining dollar was a function of the liquidity the Federal Reserve (the FED) had flooded the US economy to deter deflationary pressures put on by the bursting technology bubble market meltdown and the shock of 9/11. What does this mean for investors, well at first we may see some declines in oil prices .Some exporters like steel or autos may be negatively impacted because their products may be more expensive on world markets. Agricultural products and Consumer brands may also be also be negatively affected. Many of the gains made in the last couple of years by investing in overseas markets came because the dollar declined therefore increasing the earning in dollar terms. These gains may now be few and far between .Traditionally small caps stocks have out preformed their bigger brothers during periods of a strengthening dollar. My guess is also the domestic energy companies (coal) may do well because their product becomes more valuable yet the stronger dollar gives them more purchasing power for plant and equipment. Some financials may do better also, as long as the interest rate trend doses not accelerate .As with every trend there are short term and long term effects. Lower oil prices in my view are a very short term effect and in my view a buying opportunity. The fighting season seems to be upon us. So oil looks to move higher shortly. Some exporters may have temporary windfall profits until the higher dollar takes it effect. However in the long run exports may be hurt by the higher cost of US goods to their end consumer.
James
Don’t forget IRA contributions for 2004 are due when you submit your taxes.
Note: for some reason on Tuesday April 12, any message left on my cell was not received by me till 6:00 at night, lost in cyberspace I guess? Don’t feel ignored as a well trained Financial Professional I will return your calls shortly.
1(888)599-1188
Hello,
One of the trends (increasing oil prices, low inflation, low interest rates and a declining dollar) I spoke several weeks ago has made what seems to be a fundamental shift in the direction of its movement. Ever since the Condi and then the Presidential visit to Europe and many of the Europeans squawked about how the declining dollar had impinged on their ability to do trade with the rest of the world. The dollar has miraculously switched direction and slowly trended up ward. But what about the trade deficit, the budget deficit and the Iraq war you say. The truth is and always was that the decline in the dollar had nothing to do with the rest of the world passing judgment on the fate of America and the American economy. The declining dollar was a function of the liquidity the Federal Reserve (the FED) had flooded the US economy to deter deflationary pressures put on by the bursting technology bubble market meltdown and the shock of 9/11. What does this mean for investors, well at first we may see some declines in oil prices .Some exporters like steel or autos may be negatively impacted because their products may be more expensive on world markets. Agricultural products and Consumer brands may also be also be negatively affected. Many of the gains made in the last couple of years by investing in overseas markets came because the dollar declined therefore increasing the earning in dollar terms. These gains may now be few and far between .Traditionally small caps stocks have out preformed their bigger brothers during periods of a strengthening dollar. My guess is also the domestic energy companies (coal) may do well because their product becomes more valuable yet the stronger dollar gives them more purchasing power for plant and equipment. Some financials may do better also, as long as the interest rate trend doses not accelerate .As with every trend there are short term and long term effects. Lower oil prices in my view are a very short term effect and in my view a buying opportunity. The fighting season seems to be upon us. So oil looks to move higher shortly. Some exporters may have temporary windfall profits until the higher dollar takes it effect. However in the long run exports may be hurt by the higher cost of US goods to their end consumer.
James
Don’t forget IRA contributions for 2004 are due when you submit your taxes.
Note: for some reason on Tuesday April 12, any message left on my cell was not received by me till 6:00 at night, lost in cyberspace I guess? Don’t feel ignored as a well trained Financial Professional I will return your calls shortly.
1(888)599-1188
Head Lines
In real terms, today’s gold is 70% down from its $1314 peak in January 1980. The inflation peak in those days was 10-15%, depending on the price index.So the real value of gold today seems consistent with less than 2% inflation. Gold stock indexes are about 20% below last autumn’s high, and about 40% under their mid-90’s high. (Larry Kudlow ,Kudlow and Company CNBC)
"You have to have a belief that prices are going to stay high for a long, long period of time," Raymond said in a MarketWatch interview in New York, joined by Exxon Mobil (XOM) President Rex Tillerson. "One has to be very careful of this," Raymond added. "Oil is a commodity, and it's hard to find any commodity that doesn't have a lot of cyclicality." (Exxon Mobil Chairman and Chief Executive Lee Raymond)
The world faces “a permanent oil shock” and will have to adjust to sustained high prices in the next two decades, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday in the starkest official warning yet about the long-term outlook for energy supplies. (FT)
WASHINGTON - There's pump shock at every corner gas station, with prices well over $2 a gallon and still rising. And the government says you better get used to it. (AP)
Governors from 33 states are pushing to expand a proposed federal mandate for use of ethanol as a vehicle-fuel additive, raising hopes that growing political support for the provision will revive stalled energy legislation. (WSJ)
Russian authorities slapped BP PLC's Russian joint venture with new back-tax claims totaling 22 billion rubles, or about $790 million, undercutting the Kremlin's efforts to win back the confidence of nervous investors. (WSJ)
TYRE, Lebanon (Reuters) - Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrillas flew an unmanned surveillance drone over northern Israel on Monday, the group and the Israeli army said. "In response to repeated and continuous enemy violations of Lebanese airspace, the surveillance plane Mersad 1 carried out a reconnaissance mission in the skies of occupied northern Palestine, flying over several Zionist colonies," a Hizbollah statement said.
JERUSALEM - Ariel Sharon’s military attache presented aerial photos of Iranian nuclear installations during the Israeli prime minister’s summit with US President George W. Bush, Israeli public radio reported on Tuesday. (AFP)
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - In a major breakthrough for Chinese diplomacy, Beijing has launched a "strategic partnership" with India, laying the groundwork for deepening cooperation between longstanding rivals, which together account for one-third of the world's population.
ASHINGTON, April 8 - After two senior-level meetings between North Korean and Chinese leaders over the last two weeks to discuss the North's nuclear-weapons program, the Chinese have failed so far to persuade North Korea to rejoin nuclear disarmament talks, senior administration officials and diplomats said Friday. (NYT)
"Leaflets are handed out saying Democrats vote on Wednesday, Republicans vote on Tuesday. People are told in telephone calls that if you've ever had a parking ticket, you're not allowed to vote," he said. (John Kerry on CNN)
(CNSNews.com) - A neurologist hired by Michael Schiavo to confirm that his wife Terri was in a persistent vegetative state said he was "105 percent sure" of that diagnosis, but Dr. Ronald Cranford expressed similar certainty about a patient he examined in 1980 who later regained both consciousness and the ability to communicate.
"You have to have a belief that prices are going to stay high for a long, long period of time," Raymond said in a MarketWatch interview in New York, joined by Exxon Mobil (XOM) President Rex Tillerson. "One has to be very careful of this," Raymond added. "Oil is a commodity, and it's hard to find any commodity that doesn't have a lot of cyclicality." (Exxon Mobil Chairman and Chief Executive Lee Raymond)
The world faces “a permanent oil shock” and will have to adjust to sustained high prices in the next two decades, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday in the starkest official warning yet about the long-term outlook for energy supplies. (FT)
WASHINGTON - There's pump shock at every corner gas station, with prices well over $2 a gallon and still rising. And the government says you better get used to it. (AP)
Governors from 33 states are pushing to expand a proposed federal mandate for use of ethanol as a vehicle-fuel additive, raising hopes that growing political support for the provision will revive stalled energy legislation. (WSJ)
Russian authorities slapped BP PLC's Russian joint venture with new back-tax claims totaling 22 billion rubles, or about $790 million, undercutting the Kremlin's efforts to win back the confidence of nervous investors. (WSJ)
TYRE, Lebanon (Reuters) - Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrillas flew an unmanned surveillance drone over northern Israel on Monday, the group and the Israeli army said. "In response to repeated and continuous enemy violations of Lebanese airspace, the surveillance plane Mersad 1 carried out a reconnaissance mission in the skies of occupied northern Palestine, flying over several Zionist colonies," a Hizbollah statement said.
JERUSALEM - Ariel Sharon’s military attache presented aerial photos of Iranian nuclear installations during the Israeli prime minister’s summit with US President George W. Bush, Israeli public radio reported on Tuesday. (AFP)
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - In a major breakthrough for Chinese diplomacy, Beijing has launched a "strategic partnership" with India, laying the groundwork for deepening cooperation between longstanding rivals, which together account for one-third of the world's population.
ASHINGTON, April 8 - After two senior-level meetings between North Korean and Chinese leaders over the last two weeks to discuss the North's nuclear-weapons program, the Chinese have failed so far to persuade North Korea to rejoin nuclear disarmament talks, senior administration officials and diplomats said Friday. (NYT)
"Leaflets are handed out saying Democrats vote on Wednesday, Republicans vote on Tuesday. People are told in telephone calls that if you've ever had a parking ticket, you're not allowed to vote," he said. (John Kerry on CNN)
(CNSNews.com) - A neurologist hired by Michael Schiavo to confirm that his wife Terri was in a persistent vegetative state said he was "105 percent sure" of that diagnosis, but Dr. Ronald Cranford expressed similar certainty about a patient he examined in 1980 who later regained both consciousness and the ability to communicate.
Saturday, April 09, 2005
a 'super spike' .....2005 Opening Day Edition
April 3, 2005
Hello,
Well it is that time again, a time for new beginning. All is forgiven why even Bill Clinton is going to the Popes funeral, wow now that’s forgiveness. Spring is here and with spring it is opening day of baseball season. The season has started off right back where it ended last year with the Yankees playing the Red sox. The Days are longer, the birds are singing and harmony has returned. Well not quite, oil is signaling a move higher and geopolitical storm clouds are brewing. My experience on “Wall Street” has lead me to believe that the “street” often very significantly underestimates the geopolitical and home political risks in the markets. My point here is that “Wall Street” never takes politics seriously. I have said it often my self, “if politicians were so smart they would have a real job.” But we live in a time were politics have become very serious as witnessed by 9/11, very serious indeed. So what currently lies over the horizon is affecting us today. Will the seeds of freedom and democracy take root in the Middle East or will tyrannical revolutions over whelm more reasoned people’s quest for self determination? The rumor mill is ripe with tales of a coming invasion of Syria, or a naval blockade or Iran. Perhaps the social unrest in Egypt will spill over on the streets and turn to violence creating a global caliphate or cooler heads will prevail and Egypt like Iraq will one day raise the “lone finger of defiance” and vote them selves free from the yoke of tyranny. The same scenario holds true for most of the Middle East and much of the “greater stans” ie Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and so on and to a lesser extent Africa. Many would say where there is oil there is revolution, I would say however where there are tyrants there is revolution and where there are tyrants with oil there is potential for global conflict, which brings us back to you the investor and why energy stocks have out performed this year and will continue to do so.
Thank you again for all the referrals this last month
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Hello,
Well it is that time again, a time for new beginning. All is forgiven why even Bill Clinton is going to the Popes funeral, wow now that’s forgiveness. Spring is here and with spring it is opening day of baseball season. The season has started off right back where it ended last year with the Yankees playing the Red sox. The Days are longer, the birds are singing and harmony has returned. Well not quite, oil is signaling a move higher and geopolitical storm clouds are brewing. My experience on “Wall Street” has lead me to believe that the “street” often very significantly underestimates the geopolitical and home political risks in the markets. My point here is that “Wall Street” never takes politics seriously. I have said it often my self, “if politicians were so smart they would have a real job.” But we live in a time were politics have become very serious as witnessed by 9/11, very serious indeed. So what currently lies over the horizon is affecting us today. Will the seeds of freedom and democracy take root in the Middle East or will tyrannical revolutions over whelm more reasoned people’s quest for self determination? The rumor mill is ripe with tales of a coming invasion of Syria, or a naval blockade or Iran. Perhaps the social unrest in Egypt will spill over on the streets and turn to violence creating a global caliphate or cooler heads will prevail and Egypt like Iraq will one day raise the “lone finger of defiance” and vote them selves free from the yoke of tyranny. The same scenario holds true for most of the Middle East and much of the “greater stans” ie Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and so on and to a lesser extent Africa. Many would say where there is oil there is revolution, I would say however where there are tyrants there is revolution and where there are tyrants with oil there is potential for global conflict, which brings us back to you the investor and why energy stocks have out performed this year and will continue to do so.
Thank you again for all the referrals this last month
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Saturday, April 02, 2005
energy,inflation,interest rates and the dollar
March 28th 2005
Hello,
The trend is your friend, but what is the trend? That at the moment that is the million dollar question. Will the dollar continue to decline? Will inflation flare up? Will interest rates continue to creep higher or sky rocket? And will oil continue it’s up word spiral driven by demand and fear? It is the trend that counts, not just the single events or the daily volatility. It is often very difficult for investors to discern the forest from the trees as they say. Recent events both with economy and the geopolitical suggest that the trends that have driven the market the last few years are still intact. Interest rates for moment will continue their slow steady upward climb. The FED has strongly telegraphed its intentions to the markets. The question has become how high and how long? The effect on the bond market has so far been contrary to what logic and history would suggest. While short rates have continued to rise steadily. The long bond as witnessed by consumers thru mortgage rates has risen very slowly. We may however be near the end for rate increases and this may be the inflection point in the housing markets that so many including yours truly have been warning about. Long rates may begin to jump up .I am not looking for a melt down just a stagnant environment. Real estate is very much a regional issue so some areas may be more impacted than others often depending on the local economy, property and other tax rates. The one area that we may be seeing a significant change in trend is the movement of the dollar. The change in direction may have a very negative impact on some of the major export industries. Remember the value of the dollar is dependent on the currency liquidity level another words the level of short and long term interest rates and the amount and ease of credit availability . The main stream media continues to present a falling dollar as a negative judgment being passed on the US economy, even though the US economy continues to out perform all other major industrial economies by a wide margin in virtually every economic category. The dollars recent rise is being characterized by “US economic growth outpaces Europe and Japan” gee wiz no “Shot” Sherlock. Who would have thunk it, it only took 5 years for the mainstream media to notice. I just want to say thanks guys for doing such a “professional” service to the great unwashed. On the inflation front I am still very skeptical. Even with the huge increases in fuel prices pricing power has remained marginal at best. I think the jury is still out as to weather a long term inflationary spiral is bubbling up or pricing is just performing an equalizing adjustment in a post deflationary time period.
I have noticed many of you are asking me a lot of general questions on getting your finances organized. Here are some basic steps:
1) Consolidate your accounts; most investors have disparate IRA’s, Mutual funds, old 401k’s and brokerage accounts. If the account serves no specific purpose it is time to move it. Start with old 401k’s from past employers they can be easily rolled over tax free into a single IRA. Scattered Mutual funds can be consolidated at no cost into one account. And perhaps some old brokerage accounts that no longer serve their function can be consolidated.
2) Work on a plan to pay off credit cards. Figure out the real balance and what it would take to pay them off. Remember it is not how much you make, but how much you keep that counts in the long run. Start with the smallest balance and pay extra to get rid of the balance ,once it is payed off take the money used to pay down the smallest and apply it to the payments of the next smallest ,there by snow balling your debt reduction . If you pay off a bill with a 10% interest rate you can guarantee your self a 10% return to pay off the bill.
3) Don’t be fooled by the “discount”, just like shopping it is important to know what you’re really paying. Discount brokerages often have lower commissions but have much higher fees. Many discounters charge for stock certificates, money wires, extra for limit orders, $25 fund switch charges and so on. It is often the fees you don’t see that are the largest. Full service brokers like my self don’t charge for any of that and fees are generally negotiable. Remember no matter what you invest in or advice you take someone is making money off that information, it is foolish to think otherwise. If you what help with your investments you have to pay for it and if you pay for help you should expect to get it. If you don’t pay for it don’t expect it.
James Foytlin
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Hello,
The trend is your friend, but what is the trend? That at the moment that is the million dollar question. Will the dollar continue to decline? Will inflation flare up? Will interest rates continue to creep higher or sky rocket? And will oil continue it’s up word spiral driven by demand and fear? It is the trend that counts, not just the single events or the daily volatility. It is often very difficult for investors to discern the forest from the trees as they say. Recent events both with economy and the geopolitical suggest that the trends that have driven the market the last few years are still intact. Interest rates for moment will continue their slow steady upward climb. The FED has strongly telegraphed its intentions to the markets. The question has become how high and how long? The effect on the bond market has so far been contrary to what logic and history would suggest. While short rates have continued to rise steadily. The long bond as witnessed by consumers thru mortgage rates has risen very slowly. We may however be near the end for rate increases and this may be the inflection point in the housing markets that so many including yours truly have been warning about. Long rates may begin to jump up .I am not looking for a melt down just a stagnant environment. Real estate is very much a regional issue so some areas may be more impacted than others often depending on the local economy, property and other tax rates. The one area that we may be seeing a significant change in trend is the movement of the dollar. The change in direction may have a very negative impact on some of the major export industries. Remember the value of the dollar is dependent on the currency liquidity level another words the level of short and long term interest rates and the amount and ease of credit availability . The main stream media continues to present a falling dollar as a negative judgment being passed on the US economy, even though the US economy continues to out perform all other major industrial economies by a wide margin in virtually every economic category. The dollars recent rise is being characterized by “US economic growth outpaces Europe and Japan” gee wiz no “Shot” Sherlock. Who would have thunk it, it only took 5 years for the mainstream media to notice. I just want to say thanks guys for doing such a “professional” service to the great unwashed. On the inflation front I am still very skeptical. Even with the huge increases in fuel prices pricing power has remained marginal at best. I think the jury is still out as to weather a long term inflationary spiral is bubbling up or pricing is just performing an equalizing adjustment in a post deflationary time period.
I have noticed many of you are asking me a lot of general questions on getting your finances organized. Here are some basic steps:
1) Consolidate your accounts; most investors have disparate IRA’s, Mutual funds, old 401k’s and brokerage accounts. If the account serves no specific purpose it is time to move it. Start with old 401k’s from past employers they can be easily rolled over tax free into a single IRA. Scattered Mutual funds can be consolidated at no cost into one account. And perhaps some old brokerage accounts that no longer serve their function can be consolidated.
2) Work on a plan to pay off credit cards. Figure out the real balance and what it would take to pay them off. Remember it is not how much you make, but how much you keep that counts in the long run. Start with the smallest balance and pay extra to get rid of the balance ,once it is payed off take the money used to pay down the smallest and apply it to the payments of the next smallest ,there by snow balling your debt reduction . If you pay off a bill with a 10% interest rate you can guarantee your self a 10% return to pay off the bill.
3) Don’t be fooled by the “discount”, just like shopping it is important to know what you’re really paying. Discount brokerages often have lower commissions but have much higher fees. Many discounters charge for stock certificates, money wires, extra for limit orders, $25 fund switch charges and so on. It is often the fees you don’t see that are the largest. Full service brokers like my self don’t charge for any of that and fees are generally negotiable. Remember no matter what you invest in or advice you take someone is making money off that information, it is foolish to think otherwise. If you what help with your investments you have to pay for it and if you pay for help you should expect to get it. If you don’t pay for it don’t expect it.
James Foytlin
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
bubble ,bubble toil and trouble
American Retirement: Scrambling To Stay Ahead
Americans may be more prudent than often depicted…
Portion of workers saving for retirement, ranked among 15 countries
1.
Singapore 80%
2.
Belgium 77
3.
U.S. 76
14.
Italy 38
15.
Netherlands 33
…but even the affluent are anxious about the golden years.
Portion of U.S. working millionaires worried about retirement health-care costs
92%
Planning to work full- or part-time in retirement
42
Fretting about a stock-market decline
88
Concerned about inflation
80
Worried about large tax increases
75
Sources: AXA Retirement Scope; Northern Trust Co.
March 18th 2005
Hello
Yes I know what you have been thinking: but take a look at the above charts seems the DOWJONES Industrial Index from the early 1930’s has an amazingly similar pattern as the current NASDQ Composite. Don’t tell me you think things are worse now than in the heat of the great depression? Looks to me like we are currently running a little behind, about 6 months give or take on the time line. It is still all about energy .Short term oil prices continue to impact the market, putting us squarely in the midst of a secular bull market in energy. Higher Oil Prices are driven by risk. Risk takes many shapes and forms .There is demand risk, disruption risk, extraction risk, and production risk. For the moment these risks all seem to be heightened and look to be heightened for some time to come.
There is some concern that the real estate party is about to come to an end. 5 years of non stop gains are leading many to use the phrase, “when it can’t get any better than this it can only get worse.” I have noticed that the same people who were buying Tech stocks in March of 2000 are now talking up real estate. After the bubble burst in 2000 the FED flooded the economy with liquidity in an attempt to rescue us from the specter of deflation. This process involved lowering interest rates to 40 year lows. Low interest rates, easy credit and a powerful dynamic of a sweet spot in the demographic cycle produced a huge housing boom. Lower rates and increasing prices in housing spurred huge amounts of refinancing allowing consumers to pull equity out of there homes and apply it to other projects. As this all started many professionals wondered what would be the net effect on the bond market and interest rate sensitive equities as the FED raised rates slowly for a prolonged period of time. Higher interest rates depress bond and, preferred stock prices, as well as hurt bank, REIT and utility stocks. So far none of this has been true. The prolong raise in interest rates has not effected long bond yields and to some degree high quality tax free bonds have rallied in price. It seems to date we have something more akin to the post world war two housing boom which is also leading to a new baby boom. My concern is that as rates continue to increase there is going to be an inflection point that may undue this process and burst a bubble in housing the same way it was burst in the NASDQ.
On a final note if you recently sent your IRA or SEP contribution I have been a bit over whelmed by the volume of checks in recent weeks so I have been a bit slow letting people know their check has been deposited. Please bear with me, checks get deposited as soon as they arrive and if you haven’t herd from me you’ll hear shortly.
James
1(888)599-1188
Americans may be more prudent than often depicted…
Portion of workers saving for retirement, ranked among 15 countries
1.
Singapore 80%
2.
Belgium 77
3.
U.S. 76
14.
Italy 38
15.
Netherlands 33
…but even the affluent are anxious about the golden years.
Portion of U.S. working millionaires worried about retirement health-care costs
92%
Planning to work full- or part-time in retirement
42
Fretting about a stock-market decline
88
Concerned about inflation
80
Worried about large tax increases
75
Sources: AXA Retirement Scope; Northern Trust Co.
March 18th 2005
Hello
Yes I know what you have been thinking: but take a look at the above charts seems the DOWJONES Industrial Index from the early 1930’s has an amazingly similar pattern as the current NASDQ Composite. Don’t tell me you think things are worse now than in the heat of the great depression? Looks to me like we are currently running a little behind, about 6 months give or take on the time line. It is still all about energy .Short term oil prices continue to impact the market, putting us squarely in the midst of a secular bull market in energy. Higher Oil Prices are driven by risk. Risk takes many shapes and forms .There is demand risk, disruption risk, extraction risk, and production risk. For the moment these risks all seem to be heightened and look to be heightened for some time to come.
There is some concern that the real estate party is about to come to an end. 5 years of non stop gains are leading many to use the phrase, “when it can’t get any better than this it can only get worse.” I have noticed that the same people who were buying Tech stocks in March of 2000 are now talking up real estate. After the bubble burst in 2000 the FED flooded the economy with liquidity in an attempt to rescue us from the specter of deflation. This process involved lowering interest rates to 40 year lows. Low interest rates, easy credit and a powerful dynamic of a sweet spot in the demographic cycle produced a huge housing boom. Lower rates and increasing prices in housing spurred huge amounts of refinancing allowing consumers to pull equity out of there homes and apply it to other projects. As this all started many professionals wondered what would be the net effect on the bond market and interest rate sensitive equities as the FED raised rates slowly for a prolonged period of time. Higher interest rates depress bond and, preferred stock prices, as well as hurt bank, REIT and utility stocks. So far none of this has been true. The prolong raise in interest rates has not effected long bond yields and to some degree high quality tax free bonds have rallied in price. It seems to date we have something more akin to the post world war two housing boom which is also leading to a new baby boom. My concern is that as rates continue to increase there is going to be an inflection point that may undue this process and burst a bubble in housing the same way it was burst in the NASDQ.
On a final note if you recently sent your IRA or SEP contribution I have been a bit over whelmed by the volume of checks in recent weeks so I have been a bit slow letting people know their check has been deposited. Please bear with me, checks get deposited as soon as they arrive and if you haven’t herd from me you’ll hear shortly.
James
1(888)599-1188
Saturday, March 19, 2005
Fives years later....seeing a positive attitude towards the economy and investment
March 11,2005
Hello,
It seems that Michael Jackson was in the air. I look at the “thriller” of different mixed singles the market has given us last week and the one commonality is “as easy as one, two, three” Michael Jackson. Yes I know that it was the anniversary of the NASDQ hitting over 5000. But “one bad apple doesn’t spoil the whole bunch”, reminding us all how much everyone has gone thru since that time. Some of us are resigned to it. Some of us are still feeling the “hopie hopie” that everything will come back. Some of us are still in the land of “denial”. Many of us are burned out and bombed out by the market and a few of us are following the old adage “by low, sell hi”.
For those of you waiting for a rebirth of Silicon Valley the wait may be a long time coming. It has been five years since the bubble burst and we are still seeing signs of a severe hang over. Over capacity is epidemic in many industries created by the bubble, Y2K and coupled with some rather dubious financial engineering. But hey the GDP is 12% larger now than in 2000 and low interest rates ,low inflation and steady growth rule the day. Ok so English majors are not making six figures straight out of school, 13 year old wiz kids have all been suspended, and businesses really do have to have a product, generate revenue and earn a profit after all. Yes things have certainly changed from the days of: if it has a cool name, a cool symbol and nobody can figure out what they do the stock went to the moon. But I think the real problem is that we all felt in some way that we all deserved and were entitled to the fun, the excitement and especially the easy money.
The trade deficit has been around for over 40 years and yet none of the dire predictions have come to fruition. The simple fact of the matter is that the US economy is growing much faster than its trading partners and we have become the purchasers of last resort for all goods sold thru out the world. Our largest import is oil and no surprise gee wiz, when oil prices raise the trade deficit goes up. The senate seems poised to allow drilling at ANWR in Alaska in roughly 1000 – 2000 acres, the Alaska wild life refuge is well over 1 billion acres. For those of you worried about the Caribou, since the much maligned pipe line was built in the 1970’s the Caribou population, along with polar bears and other creatures of the great white north has increased significantly. ANWR is the largest find in North America ever with an expectation of producing over 1 million barrels of oil per day. That is as much oil as we import from Saudi Arabia.
Remember new oil discoveries have been meager, yet demand for oil is surging all over the world.
James
1(888)599-1188
IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW
AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000
$3,500
2005
$4,000
$4,500
2006-2007
$4,000
$5,000
2008
$5,000
$6,000
Hello,
It seems that Michael Jackson was in the air. I look at the “thriller” of different mixed singles the market has given us last week and the one commonality is “as easy as one, two, three” Michael Jackson. Yes I know that it was the anniversary of the NASDQ hitting over 5000. But “one bad apple doesn’t spoil the whole bunch”, reminding us all how much everyone has gone thru since that time. Some of us are resigned to it. Some of us are still feeling the “hopie hopie” that everything will come back. Some of us are still in the land of “denial”. Many of us are burned out and bombed out by the market and a few of us are following the old adage “by low, sell hi”.
For those of you waiting for a rebirth of Silicon Valley the wait may be a long time coming. It has been five years since the bubble burst and we are still seeing signs of a severe hang over. Over capacity is epidemic in many industries created by the bubble, Y2K and coupled with some rather dubious financial engineering. But hey the GDP is 12% larger now than in 2000 and low interest rates ,low inflation and steady growth rule the day. Ok so English majors are not making six figures straight out of school, 13 year old wiz kids have all been suspended, and businesses really do have to have a product, generate revenue and earn a profit after all. Yes things have certainly changed from the days of: if it has a cool name, a cool symbol and nobody can figure out what they do the stock went to the moon. But I think the real problem is that we all felt in some way that we all deserved and were entitled to the fun, the excitement and especially the easy money.
The trade deficit has been around for over 40 years and yet none of the dire predictions have come to fruition. The simple fact of the matter is that the US economy is growing much faster than its trading partners and we have become the purchasers of last resort for all goods sold thru out the world. Our largest import is oil and no surprise gee wiz, when oil prices raise the trade deficit goes up. The senate seems poised to allow drilling at ANWR in Alaska in roughly 1000 – 2000 acres, the Alaska wild life refuge is well over 1 billion acres. For those of you worried about the Caribou, since the much maligned pipe line was built in the 1970’s the Caribou population, along with polar bears and other creatures of the great white north has increased significantly. ANWR is the largest find in North America ever with an expectation of producing over 1 million barrels of oil per day. That is as much oil as we import from Saudi Arabia.
Remember new oil discoveries have been meager, yet demand for oil is surging all over the world.
James
1(888)599-1188
IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW
AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000
$3,500
2005
$4,000
$4,500
2006-2007
$4,000
$5,000
2008
$5,000
$6,000
Thursday, March 10, 2005
"Martinis with the Mayor" ,the smart ones got it and the stupid ones didn't ..No rhinoceros has a hide so thick and IRA rollovers
March 3 2005
Hello,
The Market at the moment is all about being moderate. Moderate inflation, moderate growth, moderate employment growth, moderate interest rates, moderate savings and the moderation never ends. No boom and then no bust, just moderate growth going out over the horizon and pretty soon that starts to add up to be real money.
It is no surprise or coincidence that the dollar has suddenly switched direction since the presidents charm tour of Europe. As I have said before a weaker dollar hurts Europe far greater than it hurts the US. I would also surmise that it has been done on purpose and has little or nothing to do with the “twin deficits”.
Several of my clients have noticed that there have been an awful lot of stories in the press lately about women, here are a few: Martha Stewart is out and about, sporting a new ankle bracelet, she thanked her fans, her employees and her stock holders, and two of the largest returned her compliment by selling all their MSO stock. The editor and chief of Play Girl Magazine Michele Zipp has recently come out as a Republican! According to Michele and I am paraphrasing Republican men are willing to fight for what they want which transfers into a very satisfactory experience in bed room. Rush Limbaugh commented on his radio show on Tuesday, “Perhaps that’s why most single women vote Democratic and married women vote overwhelmingly Republican?” Other women in the news, Teresa (shove it, you idiot ,scumbag)Heinz Kerry in the Seattle Post is claiming the election results were “hacked” by “right wingers” and terrorist sympathizer Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena claims the US tried to assonate her ,like we don’t have any American journalist that are pro-terrorist? Betsey Hoffman President of Colorado University resigned. The university has been under fire for more than a year over allegations of sexual misconduct and alcohol in its football-recruiting program and more recently, bigoted statements by “Professor” Ward Churchill calling people who died on 9/11 little “Ikemans” after the Nazi War Criminal of the same name. Sounds just like the UN to me. And finally in a big blow to the women all across the country X-President Bill Clinton has returned to the hospital for a second hart operation, sorry couldn’t resist that one.
The following retirement plan limit increases for 2005: 401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) Deferral Limit $14,000 Age 50+ Catch-Up Contribution Limit* $4,000* 457(b) Pre-Retirement Catch-Up Limit $28,000 Annual Addition Limitation for Defined Contribution Plans $42,000 Annual Benefit Limit for Defined Benefit Plans $170,000 Annual Compensation Limit $210,000 Annual Compensation Limit for certain eligible governmental plans $315,000 Highly Compensated Employee Definition Limit $95,000 Key Employee "officer" Definition Limit $135,000
I have been swamped lately by collecting “rollovers” .Many clients after several job changes the last few years, have assets spread out all over the place. It is easy to consolidate these assets into one tax free account. You can move assets into an IRA rollover and invest the money in safer short term bond funds if you are concerned about market direction. Consolidation also gives you a better grasp of what you are doing, eliminating over exposure of a particular asset class or duplication of fund choices. Thru Bear Stearns which is the clearing house I use you can pick from over 400 equity or fixed income fund families, that’s about 8000 funds. Most investors only need 3 to 5.
Let me know if I could be of service,
James
1(888)599-1188
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
The Market at the moment is all about being moderate. Moderate inflation, moderate growth, moderate employment growth, moderate interest rates, moderate savings and the moderation never ends. No boom and then no bust, just moderate growth going out over the horizon and pretty soon that starts to add up to be real money.
It is no surprise or coincidence that the dollar has suddenly switched direction since the presidents charm tour of Europe. As I have said before a weaker dollar hurts Europe far greater than it hurts the US. I would also surmise that it has been done on purpose and has little or nothing to do with the “twin deficits”.
Several of my clients have noticed that there have been an awful lot of stories in the press lately about women, here are a few: Martha Stewart is out and about, sporting a new ankle bracelet, she thanked her fans, her employees and her stock holders, and two of the largest returned her compliment by selling all their MSO stock. The editor and chief of Play Girl Magazine Michele Zipp has recently come out as a Republican! According to Michele and I am paraphrasing Republican men are willing to fight for what they want which transfers into a very satisfactory experience in bed room. Rush Limbaugh commented on his radio show on Tuesday, “Perhaps that’s why most single women vote Democratic and married women vote overwhelmingly Republican?” Other women in the news, Teresa (shove it, you idiot ,scumbag)Heinz Kerry in the Seattle Post is claiming the election results were “hacked” by “right wingers” and terrorist sympathizer Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena claims the US tried to assonate her ,like we don’t have any American journalist that are pro-terrorist? Betsey Hoffman President of Colorado University resigned. The university has been under fire for more than a year over allegations of sexual misconduct and alcohol in its football-recruiting program and more recently, bigoted statements by “Professor” Ward Churchill calling people who died on 9/11 little “Ikemans” after the Nazi War Criminal of the same name. Sounds just like the UN to me. And finally in a big blow to the women all across the country X-President Bill Clinton has returned to the hospital for a second hart operation, sorry couldn’t resist that one.
The following retirement plan limit increases for 2005: 401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) Deferral Limit $14,000 Age 50+ Catch-Up Contribution Limit* $4,000* 457(b) Pre-Retirement Catch-Up Limit $28,000 Annual Addition Limitation for Defined Contribution Plans $42,000 Annual Benefit Limit for Defined Benefit Plans $170,000 Annual Compensation Limit $210,000 Annual Compensation Limit for certain eligible governmental plans $315,000 Highly Compensated Employee Definition Limit $95,000 Key Employee "officer" Definition Limit $135,000
I have been swamped lately by collecting “rollovers” .Many clients after several job changes the last few years, have assets spread out all over the place. It is easy to consolidate these assets into one tax free account. You can move assets into an IRA rollover and invest the money in safer short term bond funds if you are concerned about market direction. Consolidation also gives you a better grasp of what you are doing, eliminating over exposure of a particular asset class or duplication of fund choices. Thru Bear Stearns which is the clearing house I use you can pick from over 400 equity or fixed income fund families, that’s about 8000 funds. Most investors only need 3 to 5.
Let me know if I could be of service,
James
1(888)599-1188
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Monday, February 28, 2005
Is it art or just some orange shower curtains in the park?...mother love and trucks..
February 22, 2004
Hello,
Is it art or just some orange shower curtains in the park? I think the jury is still out. Artist or grifter ,I think the jury is still out. Sorry this email was delayed but Paris Hilton’s T-Mobile Sidekick was hacked this weekend and my phone lines have simply been flooded with nonstop calls .The US has pulled it ambassador from Syria and Tehran and Damascus have made a non-aggression pact if this was 1939 you would think we were going to war. Meanwhile Jose Canseco’s tell all book suggest many major leaguers were juiced up like the stock market of the same era. Following the lead of the NBA, the SEC is now limiting the amount of drinking and profanity brokerage clients and Investment Representatives can use. Kofii Annan claims in a recent wall street journal editorial that even though the UN is the center of the oil for food scandal, a child sex slave scandal in the Congo, part and parcel to the genocide in Darfor, a sexual harassment scandal in New York involving top UN officials and $1.2 billion in cost over runs for the UN headquarters in Turtle bay the UN is still relevant in it mission, now there’s an optimist.
President Bush pursued his “charm” tour in Europe, and managed to dislocate 92 Lufthansa flights, stranding thousands of passengers, but all in all a good time and Foi gras was had by all. Give it to me straight you thought Slovakia was a Greek pastry, didn’t you? Did he build bridges or just let them eat cake? Yea that’s what I thought too da, da, da. The president criticized Russia’s recent moves to tyranny and Vladimir Puntin criticized the firing of 3 CBS executives, after all in Russia when you commit felonies they make you President.
Back home the market played like an old country song singing a tune of “mother love and trucks”. Mother being anything involving energy, love being anything involving chemicals and trucks anything involving transportation and of coarse Technology continues to stumble. The US Congress continues to debate weather it is better for them to keep stealing your money through the present “ponzi” inspired social security system and its fictitious social security “trust fund” or fess up admit the fraud and raise your taxes to pay for it. If you are interested in social security check out this sight http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/social_security/ . Speaking of retirement savings, there are many opportunities for the small investor to put away money for old age no reason to depend on social security. If you are a bit gun shy of the stock market there are many short term bond funds that offer fairly stable conservative long term returns .No ,they will not perform like an internet IPO in 1999,but they beat the meager returns offered by most bank money markets.
James
Hello,
Is it art or just some orange shower curtains in the park? I think the jury is still out. Artist or grifter ,I think the jury is still out. Sorry this email was delayed but Paris Hilton’s T-Mobile Sidekick was hacked this weekend and my phone lines have simply been flooded with nonstop calls .The US has pulled it ambassador from Syria and Tehran and Damascus have made a non-aggression pact if this was 1939 you would think we were going to war. Meanwhile Jose Canseco’s tell all book suggest many major leaguers were juiced up like the stock market of the same era. Following the lead of the NBA, the SEC is now limiting the amount of drinking and profanity brokerage clients and Investment Representatives can use. Kofii Annan claims in a recent wall street journal editorial that even though the UN is the center of the oil for food scandal, a child sex slave scandal in the Congo, part and parcel to the genocide in Darfor, a sexual harassment scandal in New York involving top UN officials and $1.2 billion in cost over runs for the UN headquarters in Turtle bay the UN is still relevant in it mission, now there’s an optimist.
President Bush pursued his “charm” tour in Europe, and managed to dislocate 92 Lufthansa flights, stranding thousands of passengers, but all in all a good time and Foi gras was had by all. Give it to me straight you thought Slovakia was a Greek pastry, didn’t you? Did he build bridges or just let them eat cake? Yea that’s what I thought too da, da, da. The president criticized Russia’s recent moves to tyranny and Vladimir Puntin criticized the firing of 3 CBS executives, after all in Russia when you commit felonies they make you President.
Back home the market played like an old country song singing a tune of “mother love and trucks”. Mother being anything involving energy, love being anything involving chemicals and trucks anything involving transportation and of coarse Technology continues to stumble. The US Congress continues to debate weather it is better for them to keep stealing your money through the present “ponzi” inspired social security system and its fictitious social security “trust fund” or fess up admit the fraud and raise your taxes to pay for it. If you are interested in social security check out this sight http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/social_security/ . Speaking of retirement savings, there are many opportunities for the small investor to put away money for old age no reason to depend on social security. If you are a bit gun shy of the stock market there are many short term bond funds that offer fairly stable conservative long term returns .No ,they will not perform like an internet IPO in 1999,but they beat the meager returns offered by most bank money markets.
James
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Lobsters may feel no pain...
February 15, 2005
Hello,
Lobsters may feel no pain, but investors sometimes do. I have been asked often recently, is it really worth investing when the market has been so uninspiring the last 4 years? After all I could invest in real-estate and am certain to get rich. Certain…., as certain as the dot.com millionaires, as certain as an English major getting paid ½ million dollars a year in stock options in 1999, as certain as that local start up is going to be the next Microsoft? Real-estate always goes up, right? Hummm guess you didn’t buy in 1987. Guess you didn’t buy a ski condo in Vermont either? Seems the same people buying dot.com’s in the fall of 1999 are involved in real-estate speculation right now. Don’t hear Warren Buffet talking much about real-estate?
Every month do you know what your house is worth or do you think you know what your house is worth? Have you ever spent money on a new roof, a new floor a washer or dryer? Real-estate has those ups and downs just like your stock portfolio it is just not so readily obvious. Modern technology has given you minute by minute updates on your stocks and bonds, but alas not yet on your real-estate. Because you have a snowy winter and have to shovel a drive way more often than last year does it mean that it will always snow this much? You simply know that if you take care spring will come.
My point being the stock portfolios, like houses often need maintenance and things don’t always go your way, but short term ups and downs hardly affect a long term investment plan. The simple fact is the power is in the plan, buy a house pay off the mortgage, open and IRA make yearly deposits, or max out your 401k .Yes there will be volatility, ups and downs, day to day and month to month thru snow days and leaky roofs but long run the power is in taking the action and follow through on the plan.
James
Hello,
Lobsters may feel no pain, but investors sometimes do. I have been asked often recently, is it really worth investing when the market has been so uninspiring the last 4 years? After all I could invest in real-estate and am certain to get rich. Certain…., as certain as the dot.com millionaires, as certain as an English major getting paid ½ million dollars a year in stock options in 1999, as certain as that local start up is going to be the next Microsoft? Real-estate always goes up, right? Hummm guess you didn’t buy in 1987. Guess you didn’t buy a ski condo in Vermont either? Seems the same people buying dot.com’s in the fall of 1999 are involved in real-estate speculation right now. Don’t hear Warren Buffet talking much about real-estate?
Every month do you know what your house is worth or do you think you know what your house is worth? Have you ever spent money on a new roof, a new floor a washer or dryer? Real-estate has those ups and downs just like your stock portfolio it is just not so readily obvious. Modern technology has given you minute by minute updates on your stocks and bonds, but alas not yet on your real-estate. Because you have a snowy winter and have to shovel a drive way more often than last year does it mean that it will always snow this much? You simply know that if you take care spring will come.
My point being the stock portfolios, like houses often need maintenance and things don’t always go your way, but short term ups and downs hardly affect a long term investment plan. The simple fact is the power is in the plan, buy a house pay off the mortgage, open and IRA make yearly deposits, or max out your 401k .Yes there will be volatility, ups and downs, day to day and month to month thru snow days and leaky roofs but long run the power is in taking the action and follow through on the plan.
James
Monday, February 14, 2005
2.57 trillion is just not enough
February 7th 2005
Hello,
2.57 trillion dollars now that’s a lot of money. No matter how you slice it is just a whole lot of money. Even though we are spending too much, we are not spending enough. Even though we have a deficit we can’t make any cuts: I know I can’t figure it out either. Only in Washington is a smaller increase in spending considered a spending cut. Only in Washington is the largest government budget in US history not enough. A recent New York State Quinnipiac Poll stated that 64% of New Yorkers trust Hillary Clinton, no wonder the Governor has proposed selling the Tapanzee Bridge I think the State will find many willing buyers. Apparently the Iraqi’s have picked up on this democracy thing better than we thought the first election in 5000 years and there are already accusations of ballot box tampering .The Bush administration has sent observers from Dade County and a special envoy from Chicago, Bill Daley.
The companies in the S&P 500 had the biggest earning increases in more than a decade. While the twin deficits of trade and budget which have so captivated the main stream media seem to be subsiding .Valentines day 2005 gives us more of corporate America seeking partnerships. There are mergers, mergers every where .This whole market has a 1980’sish sort of feel. The over capacity generated with the tech bubble 1990’s is getting soaked up through mergers and acquisitions. I don’t think you will see the reemergence of the LBO as a major tool, but the days of the “nice guy” 1990’s are giving away to the “kick but and take names” attitude of the 1980’s. It looks to me like software and telecom are the main targets.
This week brings us another big lesson for individual investors: beware of the over hyped CEO, Carly Fiona has resigned as the CEO of Hewitt Packard .The super star status of a CEO is often a harbinger of doom for stock holders and Carly was no different, pursuing a skeptical strategy with poor execution. If your CEO is busy showing up on “Opera” or decorating the covers of various magazines, it means they are not putting in the time to run the business. Carly is not the first and I am sure she wont be the last, “rock star” status just doesn’t seem to deliver return to the shareholders.
I am so glad Paul McCartney keep to his word and kept his clothes on for the Super Bowl half time show. A naked 62 year old was not something I was looking forward seeing.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Hello,
2.57 trillion dollars now that’s a lot of money. No matter how you slice it is just a whole lot of money. Even though we are spending too much, we are not spending enough. Even though we have a deficit we can’t make any cuts: I know I can’t figure it out either. Only in Washington is a smaller increase in spending considered a spending cut. Only in Washington is the largest government budget in US history not enough. A recent New York State Quinnipiac Poll stated that 64% of New Yorkers trust Hillary Clinton, no wonder the Governor has proposed selling the Tapanzee Bridge I think the State will find many willing buyers. Apparently the Iraqi’s have picked up on this democracy thing better than we thought the first election in 5000 years and there are already accusations of ballot box tampering .The Bush administration has sent observers from Dade County and a special envoy from Chicago, Bill Daley.
The companies in the S&P 500 had the biggest earning increases in more than a decade. While the twin deficits of trade and budget which have so captivated the main stream media seem to be subsiding .Valentines day 2005 gives us more of corporate America seeking partnerships. There are mergers, mergers every where .This whole market has a 1980’sish sort of feel. The over capacity generated with the tech bubble 1990’s is getting soaked up through mergers and acquisitions. I don’t think you will see the reemergence of the LBO as a major tool, but the days of the “nice guy” 1990’s are giving away to the “kick but and take names” attitude of the 1980’s. It looks to me like software and telecom are the main targets.
This week brings us another big lesson for individual investors: beware of the over hyped CEO, Carly Fiona has resigned as the CEO of Hewitt Packard .The super star status of a CEO is often a harbinger of doom for stock holders and Carly was no different, pursuing a skeptical strategy with poor execution. If your CEO is busy showing up on “Opera” or decorating the covers of various magazines, it means they are not putting in the time to run the business. Carly is not the first and I am sure she wont be the last, “rock star” status just doesn’t seem to deliver return to the shareholders.
I am so glad Paul McCartney keep to his word and kept his clothes on for the Super Bowl half time show. A naked 62 year old was not something I was looking forward seeing.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Monday, February 07, 2005
This is a vote for the future, for the children, for the rule of law, for humanity, for love.......................1982
February 2, 2005
Hello,
Let the counting begin, on this day the Iraqi people gave the blue finger to the terrorist and their allies in the mainstream media and the US congress. This axis against democracy was resoundly defeated and rejected. The issue now is not weather the Shites in Iran will influence Iraq but weather the Shites in Iraq will influence Iran and the rest of the mid east .Next time you hear complaints by US voters of long lines at polling places, just think how the Iraqi people braved gunfire, violence, beheadings, car bombs, media antagonism and acts of barbarity, to pursue their right of self determination.
Meanwhile the ground hog did not see his shadow, humm looks like six more weeks of winter or maybe it is six more weeks of market volatility. I am sure some Wall Street analysis’s is running the numbers as we speak. Like the January barometer, I spoke about in last week’s email which is signaling a down market. Well maybe not, just remember 1982, and the beginning of the great bull market, it bears repeating because there seems to be a very strong corollary between then and now. Remember a “stupid cowboy” named Ronald Reagan waged the cold war to win, cut taxes, deregulated, fought unions, moved for freer trade, pushed the Lauffer curve, ran budget and trade deficits, rebuilt the military, pursued star wars technology, and of coarse again he was” just a stupid movie star cowboy and going to start a nuclear war”. Sounds so familiar and perhaps it sounds so familiar to the stock market as well. Meanwhile we won the cold war, tax cuts created a huge economic boom, the DOW rallied from under 1000 to 12,000 in 18 years.
By the way if the Social Security System is so great how come members of the US Congress do not participate in the plan? Any ways don’t forget for 2005 your IRA contributions have been increased from $3000 to $4000 and it is not too late to make your 2004 contribution you have until April 15th. If you have not done so 2004 and 2005 contributions can be made this year; you only need to make two separate deposits. This could give some investors a jump start of $7000 toward their retirement funding.
James
Sorry Eagles, wait till next year…..
Hello,
Let the counting begin, on this day the Iraqi people gave the blue finger to the terrorist and their allies in the mainstream media and the US congress. This axis against democracy was resoundly defeated and rejected. The issue now is not weather the Shites in Iran will influence Iraq but weather the Shites in Iraq will influence Iran and the rest of the mid east .Next time you hear complaints by US voters of long lines at polling places, just think how the Iraqi people braved gunfire, violence, beheadings, car bombs, media antagonism and acts of barbarity, to pursue their right of self determination.
Meanwhile the ground hog did not see his shadow, humm looks like six more weeks of winter or maybe it is six more weeks of market volatility. I am sure some Wall Street analysis’s is running the numbers as we speak. Like the January barometer, I spoke about in last week’s email which is signaling a down market. Well maybe not, just remember 1982, and the beginning of the great bull market, it bears repeating because there seems to be a very strong corollary between then and now. Remember a “stupid cowboy” named Ronald Reagan waged the cold war to win, cut taxes, deregulated, fought unions, moved for freer trade, pushed the Lauffer curve, ran budget and trade deficits, rebuilt the military, pursued star wars technology, and of coarse again he was” just a stupid movie star cowboy and going to start a nuclear war”. Sounds so familiar and perhaps it sounds so familiar to the stock market as well. Meanwhile we won the cold war, tax cuts created a huge economic boom, the DOW rallied from under 1000 to 12,000 in 18 years.
By the way if the Social Security System is so great how come members of the US Congress do not participate in the plan? Any ways don’t forget for 2005 your IRA contributions have been increased from $3000 to $4000 and it is not too late to make your 2004 contribution you have until April 15th. If you have not done so 2004 and 2005 contributions can be made this year; you only need to make two separate deposits. This could give some investors a jump start of $7000 toward their retirement funding.
James
Sorry Eagles, wait till next year…..
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