Friday, July 29, 2005

Thank you from the MDA

Just wanted to take this time to thank you for your generous donations to the MDA, The New Jersey MDA chapter has 1700 clients who receive direct benefits. I really appreciate you're efforts to contribute.

Thank you again

James J Foytlin

Monday, July 25, 2005

Bio Tech Index

Check out my updated website…

RDX or TATP what does it matter ..if the summer rally continues?

July 17,2005
This week it is all about earnings, hurricanes and takeovers. About 1000 companies report earnings, Hurricane Emily crashes a shore near Cancun and not to be out done investment bankers are capitalizing on the low equity valuations perusing the urge to merge. Going into the week Semi conductors and Bio Techs have been leading the way, but let’s see if this weeks earning announcements move this trend forward or make it yesterday’s news. There seems to be a lot of resilience in this market weather it be an act of international terrorism or a natural disaster.

The big news seems to be that China has begun the long overdue process to turn the Yaun into a fully convertible currency. This initial step of letting the Yaun fluctuate versus a basket of currencies first major effect so far has been to cause a sell down in the US treasury market, perhaps alleviating the flatness in the yield curve. The translation into plain English means long term rates ie…mortgage rates will begin to rise. Will rates raise enough to discourage home buying ,I am not sure .The Magic number with mortgage rates is like the magic number of the price of gas .What price will it take to discourage one type of economic activity and encourage another? What may hurt home buyers, may very positively enhance equity valuations because as the saying goes a flat yield curve leads to a recession. What is a flat yield curve? Again this is far less complicated than it sounds and simply means that short term interest rates are the same or more than long term rates, another words there is no time premium for the lender. The stock market views a flat yield curve very negatively, because it points to a slow down in future economic activity. How flat was the yield curve, well the 3month yield is 3.35% and the 30 years is 4.50%. That’s not exactly flat but for example July of last year the 3 month was 1.35% and the 30 year was 5.20%, now that’s a yield curve. Another issue that has crept up is the specter of inflation. A stronger Chinese currency means higher prices for Chinese goods. Again it is one of those magic number issues, another words how much of and increase in the Yaun would be needed to raise prices noticeably. This sounds like more of the sky is falling argument, in the current economic circumstances runaway inflation has about as much chance of coming back as Jimmy Carter getting elected president in 2008. There are many on Wall Street who continue to harp that inflation is coming, inflation is coming, given that fact that we had a market bubble bust in 2000, followed by the attack of 9/11, the FED and the Treasury used an enormous amount of resources to fight and avoid deflation (like the 1930’s) any inflation would simply be temporary as there is a slight boost to inflation after all calamities have subsided due to the excess liquidity created to fight the calamities.

Again since you asked, the average car payment in the USA is $385.00 per month, if you invested the same amount starting with zero in 30 years at 9% return you would accumulate $417,569 after $108,488 taxes at a 28% rate. (Historically the stock market has returned around 11% per year) .If you were to invest tax free of $4000 per year ($334 per month)in a ROTH or Traditional IRA at 9% for 30 years you would end up with $585,483. A car payment can get you started so call me……


Thursday, July 21, 2005

just the news

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- China loosened its fixed-exchange rate against the dollar for the first time in a decade, letting the yuan fluctuate versus a basket of currencies, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site.

One of the sources said that investigators found the TATP in the Leeds apartment rented by Magdy el-Nashar, an Egyptian biochemist detained for questioning Thursday in connection with the London attacks. (CNN)

CAIRO, Egypt - A well-liked Egyptian with an American college degree and no apparent interest in politics has been arrested as part of the investigation into the London bomb blasts. In Pakistan Friday, security forces investigating connections with the suicide bombings detained four suspects, a police office said. (MSNBC)

British-born Haroon Rashid Aswad was seized at a religious school with a suicide bomb belt, explosives and GBP 13,000 in cash. Security sources in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, claim he had up to 20 telephone conversations with London bombers Mohammad Sidique Khan and Shehzad Tanweer. One of these is believed to have been just hours before the blasts. (Matt Drudge)

July 15, 2005 — One of the bombers in last week's attacks made a direct phone call to a suspected recruiter for an extremist group in New York. (ABC NEWS LONDON)

( - An American Muslim group under federal investigation is actually the U.S. division of a Pakistan-based faction with ties to Osama bin Laden and the Taliban, according to notes from an official meeting that were posted on an obscure Middle Eastern website and obtained by Cybercast News Service

"I believed very strongly that it was important for the Committee to conclude publicly that many of the statements made by Ambassador Wilson were not only incorrect, but had no basis in fact." (Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts)

"The former Ambassador (Joe Wilson), either by design or through ignorance, gave the American people and, for that matter, the world a version of events that was inaccurate, unsubstantiated, and misleading” (Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts)

Sen. John Kerry, who called for Karl Rove to be fired over allegations that he revealed the identity of CIA employee Valerie Plame, outed a genuine undercover CIA agent just this past April - even after the agency asked that his identity be kept secret. Kerry blew the cover of CIA secret operative Fulton Armstrong during confirmation hearings for U.N. ambassador nominee John Bolton (NEWSMAX)

If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” said General Zhu Chenghu. (FT)

Hedge Funds have pried into nearly every nook of the investing world as they hunt for good returns. Recently, they have increased their focus on a sometimes tricky game: lending money to ailing, cash-strapped companies. (WSJ)

While employment keeps declining at American factories, they are cranking out more products than ever, and they are running closer to capacity than they have in half a decade. (WSJ)
"Contrary to the view out there that American manufacturing is dead or dying, [production] is growing at a pretty good clip," says Joseph Carson, director of global economic research with Alliance Capital Management LP in New York.

Two larger trends are at play in the increases. The first is continued productivity gains in the manufacturing sector, which means factories are producing more products with fewer workers. The other is a growing global economy, which allows U.S. producers to expand production even as upstart factories in places like China and Mexico build up market share. (WSJ)

July 20, 2005 -- Morgan Stanley's board is under attack by a pension fund looking to recover millions the company has paid to departing executives and a $1.58 billion court award the firm lost to mogul Ron Perelman.(NY POST)

July 21, 2005 -- THE Securities & Exchange Commission is investigating whether brokerage firms that did business with Fidelity Investments cheated by placing their own trades ahead of those of the big mutual fund company. On Wall Street this is called "front running." That simply means a brokerage firm, knowing that Fidelity is about to purchase or sell stock in a particular company, will execute its own orders first so as to guarantee itself a profit.(NY POST)

"I don't want to go outside the Green Zone in Baghdad," said the peripatetic stock picker. "Does that make me fearful, or smart? Sometimes fear keeps me from making bad decisions." (Jim Cramer, a former Goldman Sachs trader, hedge fund manager and current host of "Mad Money" on CNBC)

CHICAGO (AP) - The AFL-CIO succumbed to division Sunday, with its largest union deciding to bolt the 50-year-old federation and three others poised to do so in a dispute over how to reverse organized labor's long slide. The four unions, representing nearly one-third of the AFL-CIO's 13 million members, announced Sunday they would boycott the federation's convention that begins Monday. They are part of the Coalition to Win, a group of seven unions vowing to reform the labor movement - outside the AFL-CIO if necessary. ( RON FOURNIER)

Monday, July 18, 2005

Don’t laugh it worked for Martha...........

"i will come and visit you." , (mom )

Hey man, this pic looks great on you!!
Are you sure you'r collecting money for that cause? (I picture you in Mexico enjoying it!) (another happy client)

"Can I donate money to keep you in?" , (a client )

I haven't divulged it , but I am disabled with a neuro condition and a beneficiary of much of the work that MDA does. (a fellow blogger)

"that is a terrible picture of you. You look like you belong behind bars. Just for letting that picture be released, I think I'll let you stay there..." (another happy client )

"Thanks for your interest in The John Batchelor Show. Check out our new website:! All our books, music, and ways to contact John are available there."

Good luck and do not drop the soap!!!! (Freind)

"OK, You've gotton my sympathy. How can I make a donation ? :)" (friend)

How much in pledges are you looking for....when is this? And if so, can I be locked up with your girlfriend's friends? (another friend)


I’M GOING BEHIND BARS FOR GOOD!A warrant has been issued for my arrest! As one of the area’s “Most Wanted,”I’m going to be “Locked up” to benefit the Muscular Dystrophy Association.With your help they may even let me out on good behavior! Contribute to my bail by donating to MDA via check or credit card. Stop by, call me Toll Free 1- 888-599-1188 or e-mail: jamesfoytlin@optonline.netyour offer to help.MDA©

Dow Jones Utilities Index

Raising utilities stock prices suggest an interest rate top?

*chart from the WSJ

Friday, July 15, 2005

this week in the news

The growth of higher wage jobs is outpacing that of lower-paying jobs for the first time in nearly four years, a study found. (WSJ)

WASHINGTON - As three senators joined President Bush's call for the Iranian regime to release dissident journalist Akbar Ganji from prison, the secretary-general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, yesterday refused to comment when pressed, claiming ignorance on the matter. (NY SUN)

Britain is in shock. Not just from the traumatic and grudging realization last Thursday that the country is at war, but from the discovery that the attack on London was the work of four suicide bombers, all of them young British Muslims. (NY SUN)

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is cutting its estimate of this year's U.S. budget deficit to about $330 billion, a Senate Republican aide said, as the growth in jobs and income boosts tax payments.

BRUSSELS (AFP) -European Commission said it had raided offices of Intel Corp and computer makers and sellers across Europe.
EUROPE wants to begin to regulate the internet for the first time by introducing controversial rules to cover television online. (TIMES ON LINE)

Controversial new European laws which could outlaw thousands of vitamin and mineral supplements were upheld by European Court judgesy. (Evening Standard UK)

( - Britain's main Muslim umbrella organization has reacted with shock to the news that police believe last Thursday's terrorist bombings in London were carried out by members of the British Muslim community rather than foreigners.

( - Britain's national broadcaster re-edited some of its online coverage of last Thursday's London bombings to remove references to "terrorists" and related words, after earlier appearing to have set aside its policy of not using the terms.

The man accused of killing Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh confessed to a Dutch court that he acted out of his religious beliefs, saying he would do "exactly the same" if he were ever set free. (AFP)

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming countries, said oil demand will accelerate and rise 2.1 percent next year, a sign that prices at $60 a barrel have done little to restrain growth.

PARIS, July 13 - A sudden and mysterious drop in China's oil consumption helped to push down the International Energy Agency's estimate on Wednesday of global demand for this year. After growing 11 percent in 2003 and 15.4 percent last year, China's overall oil use declined 1 percent in the second quarter from the comparable quarter a year earlier, the agency said. (NYT)

"In the past decade, the United Kingdom's undisputed political, economic, and cultural center has also become a major world center of political Islam and anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, and anti-American activism," writes Hebrew University of Jerusalem academic Robert S. Wistrich …(CNS NEWS)

WASHINGTON - President Clinton yesterday added his voice to a growing chorus of Americans of various political persuasions who disagree with a recent Supreme Court ruling that upheld the government's use of eminent domain powers to take private property from one owner and give it to another. (NY SUN)

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose a larger-than- expected 1.7 percent in June, as price cuts at General Motors Corp. fueled spending on automobiles while summer temperatures drove purchases of such goods as barbecue grills, lounge chairs and lightweight clothing. Shoppers also spent more on gasoline.

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in June, reflecting cheaper energy and apparel, a government report showed today.

WASHINGTON - A major source of chemical contamination in the Arctic turns out to be bird droppings. Wind currents and human activities long have been blamed for fouling the pristine Arctic. But a study by a group of Canadian researchers found that the chemical pollution in areas frequented by seabirds can be many times higher than in nearby regions. (AP)

Ganji must be Free

July 12, 2005


I just love a summer rally, yes that’s right the market continues to rally and you herd it here first not every stock not everyday and sure the volume is a bit weak but none the less the summer rally is in full bloom. NASDQ looks to have pushed through some very significant resistance around the 2100 level. Again I will repeat the market stages a summer rally, followed by a September through 3rd week of October sell off .Then after about October 20th give or take the real decade rally starts, similar to the fall off 1995 thru mid 1996. The semiconductors are beginning to move upward. They are often one of first sectors to rally signifying the beginning of a new bull market. Mind you it is important to continue to look for confirmation, if the Semi’s fail all bets are off. I know you have herd it all be for, so let the market show you. Scale in making the decision to add more to equities with each passing day buying on weakness or adding to strong positions.

So how does it work, the government lowered tax rates and tax revenues increased? Think of it like running an airline and you want to fill all your planes and eliminate all the empty seats. You simply cut fares and more people fly .Now that wasn’t so complicated was it. Gee you mean people are smart enough to take advantage of sales and discounts, are you? You mean people will buy more when they get a discount? Perhaps you have even made a purchase decision based on the opportunity to take advantage of a sale, I certainly have? I know, never; you always pay more just to prove you’re paying your way …yea right. Everybody loves a bargain, especially business looking to make investments in equipment and expansion. Still not sure ask GM about the Employee discount for everyone program. Taxes are a cost we all share and if taxes are decreased costs decline: more money for you, more fore me to buy, hire, build, expand and advertise; It is really that simple.

Get Me Out Of Jail,fund raiser for MDA
Yes I am going behind bars .I am going to be locked up to benefit Muscular Dystrophy Association .With your help by contributing to my bail we can make a difference! Contribute today by donating to MDA via check, or credit card or cash! No donation is to small! Stop by and see me, call 1(888) 599-1188 or email, or I can pick up a check at your home or office.Thank you,James Foytlin

Monday, July 11, 2005

NASDQ 2000

DOW 1929

Get Me Out Of Jail,fund raiser for MDA

Yes I am going behind bars .I am going to be locked up to benefit Muscular Dystrophy Association .With your help by contributing to my bail we can make a difference! Contribute today by donating to MDA via check, or credit card or cash! Stop by and see me, call 1(888) 599-1188 or email, or I can pick up a check at your home.

Thank you,

James Foytlin
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450

this week in the news

Iran's president-elect has proclaimed an Islamic revolution of global proportions. Mahmood Ahmadinejad said his election coincided with what he termed a new Islamic revolution. "The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world," Ahmadinejad said. "In one night, the martyrs strode down a path of 100 years." (World Tribune)

A former American hostage in Tehran who claims Iranian President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of his kidnappers, says the country's new leader threatened to kidnap his handicapped son and cut off his fingers and toes. David Roeder, 66, told the German magazine Der Spiegel Ahmadinejad was present for at least a third of the interrogations during the time he was held, November 1979 to January 1981 "You don't forget someone like that," said the former assistant Air Force attache. (WorldNet

European diplomats are preparing for a breakdown of their negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme in a sign of mounting pessimism following the election last week of conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad. Although Britain, France and Germany still intend to keep their promise to put forward new compromise proposals to Iran by the beginning of August, some of the countries' diplomats now have little expectation that any deal will be accepted by Tehran. (FT)

BRUSSELS -- A lunch meeting between a leading parliamentarian in Belgium and counterparts from Iran has been cancelled because the beer-loving Belgian could not stomach a ban on alcohol. "Even for the tolerant Herman De Croo, that was a bridge too far," De Croo, a Dutch-speaking Liberal, told De Standaard daily on Thursday. (Reuters)

June 30, 2005 -- Jack Resnick & Sons this week became the latest sophisticated city real estate family to cash out some of its holdings. The family firm quietly hired investment orchestrator Doug Harmon of Eastdil to market The Gershwin, a 1998 rental tower at 250 W. 50th named after the composer. The 41-story building, on the southeast corner of Eighth Avenue across from the Gershwin Theatre, has already attracted a full range of bidders. It could break records when it trades close to the $400 million mark. (NY POST)

June 30, 2005 -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Piper Jaffray Cos. and 17 other firms will pay a combined $1.65 million to the NASD for late and improper reporting of municipal bond trades — a record fine by the regulator for such lapses. (NY POST)

June 30, 2005 -- Google and Yahoo! moved yesterday to position their companies to capture a larger piece of fast-growing local online advertising revenues. (NY POST)

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's administration will report this week that surging tax revenue is shrinking this year's budget deficit from the record 2004 level, possibly by as much as $90 billion, giving him a shot at fulfilling his deficit reduction promise three years early.

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Blackstone Group LP, the world's two biggest buyout firms, are making 2005 an unprecedented year for leveraged buyouts, generating more than $4 billion of fees for investment bankers.

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- VNU NV, the Dutch owner of market researcher ACNielsen, agreed to buy IMS Health Inc. for $6.3 billion to become the world's biggest provider of health care market data.

A brutal, oppressive dictator, guilty of personally murdering and condoning murder and torture, grotesque violence against women, execution of political opponents, a war criminal who used chemical weapons against another nation and, of course, as we know, against his own people, the Kurds. He has diverted funds from the Oil-for-Food program, intended by the international community to go to his own people. He has supported and harbored terrorist groups, particularly radical Palestinian groups such as Abu Nidal, and he has given money to families of suicide murderers in Israel. (Senator John Kerry. In the same speech, Kerry faulted Bush for waiting so long to deal with the menace of Saddam Hussein)

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. factory orders increased in May by the most in a year and sales of business equipment increased, a sign manufacturing will provide a bigger boost to the economy in the second half than in the first.

July 6, 2005 -- American International Group Inc., the insurer sued for improper accounting, named Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as a special adviser to its board. (NY POST)

Marina Bai has sued the U.S. space agency, claiming the Deep Impact probe that punched a crater into the comet Tempel 1 late Sunday "ruins the natural balance of forces in the universe," the newspaper Izvestia reported Tuesday. A Moscow court has postponed hearings on the case until late July, the paper said. (AP)

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Inmates from the US-led war on terror held at the prison camp at the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba are well treated, play outdoor sports, and have access to a broad Muslim-approved menu, a US senator who traveled to the site said.

( - Islamic schools, called "madrassahs," operate around the world, teaching children reading, writing, religion and, in some cases, how to participate in terrorist attacks.

cant make a silk purse from a sows ear?

July 5th 2004


First my sympathy and hope goes out to all Londoners. Interesting choice of a terror target, Londoners seem to have accumulated a lot of fortitude after years of fearing IRA attacks .I am not sure this Terrorist Attack in will have the negative impact that the terrorist would hope for. At this juncture it does not appear to be a precursor of a huge sell off ,particularly given that oil prices have declined at lest early rather significantly. The US markets seem to have factored in terrorism as a part of life like hurricanes. It remains to be seen if Europe is of the same mind set.

I was in the middle of writing this……..Yes it is hurricane season and with the storms comes the seasonal increase in the price of fuel. No mystery simply the geographic location of about 38% of refining and oil and natural gas drilling rigs for the US. Many oil stocks are trading significantly below their highs of earlier this year when oil prices were much lower. Oil stocks may not make new highs but there looks to be some room for an upward price move, barring a major geopolitical setback. I have said this before increasing fuel prices seem to be factored into the market. So far increasing fuel prices have acted to keep economic growth moderate allowing to FED to continue to raise rates incrementally. A huge jump in prices would cause an oil shock, but as I have said before what would constitute a huge spike I am not sure. My best guess would be in the $90 a barrel range.

It is also the summer slow down which means in the summer the economy slows down. The media every year will fill the airwaves with dire prediction, that the end is near and the world ended yesterday. If it sounds familiar it is because it is the story gets reused every year while the press is on summer vacation.

So now a bit of history from 1924-1929 the DOW made a parabolic move of over 300% going from 100 to 400 .The Crash in 1929 brought the DOW back down to 50 ,a drop of 88%. After bottoming in the middle of 1932, the DOW then rose 140% from 50 to 120 and settled into a trading range from about 80-120 till the middle of 1935 then breaking out 67% to 200 by 1937. Now let’s look at the NASDQ. The current NASDQ made the parabolic move from 1996 to 2000, rising over 400% from 1000 to 5100. Then the crash came and knocked the NASDQ from 5100 to 1100 by 2002, losing 78% of its value. In 2002 thru 2003 the NASDQ rallied 95% to 2100, and then traded sideways till the present from 1750 to 2190 till the present. Hummmmm….yes we could still make a new low … but to date this decade has underperformed the 1930’s, and folks this is not the great depression.

Be safe


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