Wednesday, August 27, 2008

the VIX ,If you’re not confused you’re not paying attention.

If you’re not confused you’re not paying attention. Trading continues to be dominated by the VIX and low summer volume which further exacerbates market volatility.

During the past year the Volatility Index (VIX) has done a good job of forecasting market tops and market bottoms. When the VIX has risen above the 30 level ,this has been followed by significant rallies ranging from 6% to 15% However when the VIX has dropped to around the 16 level we have seen substantial sell offs occur ranging from 11% to 17% .

(VIX) is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge"” from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp



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