Real “real” people, the madness of crowds and continued confusion….

Let the “Real” Real people stand up and take a bow. Be wary of those who look to make stock recommendations who have no experience or qualifications. Every time the main stream types pick up the stock picking torch it signals a market top. Bear market rallies are particularly dangerous, best to keep your eyes on the long term prize.

In this bloggers view the fall season should see a firming of energy prices with the summers 20% correction in energy ,commodity and AG stocks signaling the end of a correction phase in these sectors and a global economy that will show it self to be more resilient than common wisdom gives it credit for. Demand will firm and stabilize.

I would remain cautions on banks and financials given the current continued credit contraction. Let’s face it banks make money by loaning money and if they don’t loan I am not sure how they are going to dig themselves out of the current bad debt crisis.

Keep a watchful eye on “Bear Traps” or when oversold sectors bounce from significant oversold positions. These rallies have a tendency to suck you in and leave you hanging on the top tick. Unless the fundamentals change then the sector is saddled with the same problems that sold it down to begin with.

And finally the 1970’s style policies and physiology is in tact and here to stay till the next generational change. Look for a continued mirror of that decade for investors.