American Retirement: Scrambling To Stay Ahead
Americans may be more prudent than often depicted…
Portion of workers saving for retirement, ranked among 15 countries
1.
Singapore 80%
2.
Belgium 77
3.
U.S. 76
14.
Italy 38
15.
Netherlands 33
…but even the affluent are anxious about the golden years.
Portion of U.S. working millionaires worried about retirement health-care costs
92%
Planning to work full- or part-time in retirement
42
Fretting about a stock-market decline
88
Concerned about inflation
80
Worried about large tax increases
75
Sources: AXA Retirement Scope; Northern Trust Co.
March 18th 2005
Hello
Yes I know what you have been thinking: but take a look at the above charts seems the DOWJONES Industrial Index from the early 1930’s has an amazingly similar pattern as the current NASDQ Composite. Don’t tell me you think things are worse now than in the heat of the great depression? Looks to me like we are currently running a little behind, about 6 months give or take on the time line. It is still all about energy .Short term oil prices continue to impact the market, putting us squarely in the midst of a secular bull market in energy. Higher Oil Prices are driven by risk. Risk takes many shapes and forms .There is demand risk, disruption risk, extraction risk, and production risk. For the moment these risks all seem to be heightened and look to be heightened for some time to come.
There is some concern that the real estate party is about to come to an end. 5 years of non stop gains are leading many to use the phrase, “when it can’t get any better than this it can only get worse.” I have noticed that the same people who were buying Tech stocks in March of 2000 are now talking up real estate. After the bubble burst in 2000 the FED flooded the economy with liquidity in an attempt to rescue us from the specter of deflation. This process involved lowering interest rates to 40 year lows. Low interest rates, easy credit and a powerful dynamic of a sweet spot in the demographic cycle produced a huge housing boom. Lower rates and increasing prices in housing spurred huge amounts of refinancing allowing consumers to pull equity out of there homes and apply it to other projects. As this all started many professionals wondered what would be the net effect on the bond market and interest rate sensitive equities as the FED raised rates slowly for a prolonged period of time. Higher interest rates depress bond and, preferred stock prices, as well as hurt bank, REIT and utility stocks. So far none of this has been true. The prolong raise in interest rates has not effected long bond yields and to some degree high quality tax free bonds have rallied in price. It seems to date we have something more akin to the post world war two housing boom which is also leading to a new baby boom. My concern is that as rates continue to increase there is going to be an inflection point that may undue this process and burst a bubble in housing the same way it was burst in the NASDQ.
On a final note if you recently sent your IRA or SEP contribution I have been a bit over whelmed by the volume of checks in recent weeks so I have been a bit slow letting people know their check has been deposited. Please bear with me, checks get deposited as soon as they arrive and if you haven’t herd from me you’ll hear shortly.
James
1(888)599-1188
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Saturday, March 19, 2005
Fives years later....seeing a positive attitude towards the economy and investment
March 11,2005
Hello,
It seems that Michael Jackson was in the air. I look at the “thriller” of different mixed singles the market has given us last week and the one commonality is “as easy as one, two, three” Michael Jackson. Yes I know that it was the anniversary of the NASDQ hitting over 5000. But “one bad apple doesn’t spoil the whole bunch”, reminding us all how much everyone has gone thru since that time. Some of us are resigned to it. Some of us are still feeling the “hopie hopie” that everything will come back. Some of us are still in the land of “denial”. Many of us are burned out and bombed out by the market and a few of us are following the old adage “by low, sell hi”.
For those of you waiting for a rebirth of Silicon Valley the wait may be a long time coming. It has been five years since the bubble burst and we are still seeing signs of a severe hang over. Over capacity is epidemic in many industries created by the bubble, Y2K and coupled with some rather dubious financial engineering. But hey the GDP is 12% larger now than in 2000 and low interest rates ,low inflation and steady growth rule the day. Ok so English majors are not making six figures straight out of school, 13 year old wiz kids have all been suspended, and businesses really do have to have a product, generate revenue and earn a profit after all. Yes things have certainly changed from the days of: if it has a cool name, a cool symbol and nobody can figure out what they do the stock went to the moon. But I think the real problem is that we all felt in some way that we all deserved and were entitled to the fun, the excitement and especially the easy money.
The trade deficit has been around for over 40 years and yet none of the dire predictions have come to fruition. The simple fact of the matter is that the US economy is growing much faster than its trading partners and we have become the purchasers of last resort for all goods sold thru out the world. Our largest import is oil and no surprise gee wiz, when oil prices raise the trade deficit goes up. The senate seems poised to allow drilling at ANWR in Alaska in roughly 1000 – 2000 acres, the Alaska wild life refuge is well over 1 billion acres. For those of you worried about the Caribou, since the much maligned pipe line was built in the 1970’s the Caribou population, along with polar bears and other creatures of the great white north has increased significantly. ANWR is the largest find in North America ever with an expectation of producing over 1 million barrels of oil per day. That is as much oil as we import from Saudi Arabia.
Remember new oil discoveries have been meager, yet demand for oil is surging all over the world.
James
1(888)599-1188
IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW
AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000
$3,500
2005
$4,000
$4,500
2006-2007
$4,000
$5,000
2008
$5,000
$6,000
Hello,
It seems that Michael Jackson was in the air. I look at the “thriller” of different mixed singles the market has given us last week and the one commonality is “as easy as one, two, three” Michael Jackson. Yes I know that it was the anniversary of the NASDQ hitting over 5000. But “one bad apple doesn’t spoil the whole bunch”, reminding us all how much everyone has gone thru since that time. Some of us are resigned to it. Some of us are still feeling the “hopie hopie” that everything will come back. Some of us are still in the land of “denial”. Many of us are burned out and bombed out by the market and a few of us are following the old adage “by low, sell hi”.
For those of you waiting for a rebirth of Silicon Valley the wait may be a long time coming. It has been five years since the bubble burst and we are still seeing signs of a severe hang over. Over capacity is epidemic in many industries created by the bubble, Y2K and coupled with some rather dubious financial engineering. But hey the GDP is 12% larger now than in 2000 and low interest rates ,low inflation and steady growth rule the day. Ok so English majors are not making six figures straight out of school, 13 year old wiz kids have all been suspended, and businesses really do have to have a product, generate revenue and earn a profit after all. Yes things have certainly changed from the days of: if it has a cool name, a cool symbol and nobody can figure out what they do the stock went to the moon. But I think the real problem is that we all felt in some way that we all deserved and were entitled to the fun, the excitement and especially the easy money.
The trade deficit has been around for over 40 years and yet none of the dire predictions have come to fruition. The simple fact of the matter is that the US economy is growing much faster than its trading partners and we have become the purchasers of last resort for all goods sold thru out the world. Our largest import is oil and no surprise gee wiz, when oil prices raise the trade deficit goes up. The senate seems poised to allow drilling at ANWR in Alaska in roughly 1000 – 2000 acres, the Alaska wild life refuge is well over 1 billion acres. For those of you worried about the Caribou, since the much maligned pipe line was built in the 1970’s the Caribou population, along with polar bears and other creatures of the great white north has increased significantly. ANWR is the largest find in North America ever with an expectation of producing over 1 million barrels of oil per day. That is as much oil as we import from Saudi Arabia.
Remember new oil discoveries have been meager, yet demand for oil is surging all over the world.
James
1(888)599-1188
IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW
AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000
$3,500
2005
$4,000
$4,500
2006-2007
$4,000
$5,000
2008
$5,000
$6,000
Thursday, March 10, 2005
"Martinis with the Mayor" ,the smart ones got it and the stupid ones didn't ..No rhinoceros has a hide so thick and IRA rollovers
March 3 2005
Hello,
The Market at the moment is all about being moderate. Moderate inflation, moderate growth, moderate employment growth, moderate interest rates, moderate savings and the moderation never ends. No boom and then no bust, just moderate growth going out over the horizon and pretty soon that starts to add up to be real money.
It is no surprise or coincidence that the dollar has suddenly switched direction since the presidents charm tour of Europe. As I have said before a weaker dollar hurts Europe far greater than it hurts the US. I would also surmise that it has been done on purpose and has little or nothing to do with the “twin deficits”.
Several of my clients have noticed that there have been an awful lot of stories in the press lately about women, here are a few: Martha Stewart is out and about, sporting a new ankle bracelet, she thanked her fans, her employees and her stock holders, and two of the largest returned her compliment by selling all their MSO stock. The editor and chief of Play Girl Magazine Michele Zipp has recently come out as a Republican! According to Michele and I am paraphrasing Republican men are willing to fight for what they want which transfers into a very satisfactory experience in bed room. Rush Limbaugh commented on his radio show on Tuesday, “Perhaps that’s why most single women vote Democratic and married women vote overwhelmingly Republican?” Other women in the news, Teresa (shove it, you idiot ,scumbag)Heinz Kerry in the Seattle Post is claiming the election results were “hacked” by “right wingers” and terrorist sympathizer Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena claims the US tried to assonate her ,like we don’t have any American journalist that are pro-terrorist? Betsey Hoffman President of Colorado University resigned. The university has been under fire for more than a year over allegations of sexual misconduct and alcohol in its football-recruiting program and more recently, bigoted statements by “Professor” Ward Churchill calling people who died on 9/11 little “Ikemans” after the Nazi War Criminal of the same name. Sounds just like the UN to me. And finally in a big blow to the women all across the country X-President Bill Clinton has returned to the hospital for a second hart operation, sorry couldn’t resist that one.
The following retirement plan limit increases for 2005: 401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) Deferral Limit $14,000 Age 50+ Catch-Up Contribution Limit* $4,000* 457(b) Pre-Retirement Catch-Up Limit $28,000 Annual Addition Limitation for Defined Contribution Plans $42,000 Annual Benefit Limit for Defined Benefit Plans $170,000 Annual Compensation Limit $210,000 Annual Compensation Limit for certain eligible governmental plans $315,000 Highly Compensated Employee Definition Limit $95,000 Key Employee "officer" Definition Limit $135,000
I have been swamped lately by collecting “rollovers” .Many clients after several job changes the last few years, have assets spread out all over the place. It is easy to consolidate these assets into one tax free account. You can move assets into an IRA rollover and invest the money in safer short term bond funds if you are concerned about market direction. Consolidation also gives you a better grasp of what you are doing, eliminating over exposure of a particular asset class or duplication of fund choices. Thru Bear Stearns which is the clearing house I use you can pick from over 400 equity or fixed income fund families, that’s about 8000 funds. Most investors only need 3 to 5.
Let me know if I could be of service,
James
1(888)599-1188
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
The Market at the moment is all about being moderate. Moderate inflation, moderate growth, moderate employment growth, moderate interest rates, moderate savings and the moderation never ends. No boom and then no bust, just moderate growth going out over the horizon and pretty soon that starts to add up to be real money.
It is no surprise or coincidence that the dollar has suddenly switched direction since the presidents charm tour of Europe. As I have said before a weaker dollar hurts Europe far greater than it hurts the US. I would also surmise that it has been done on purpose and has little or nothing to do with the “twin deficits”.
Several of my clients have noticed that there have been an awful lot of stories in the press lately about women, here are a few: Martha Stewart is out and about, sporting a new ankle bracelet, she thanked her fans, her employees and her stock holders, and two of the largest returned her compliment by selling all their MSO stock. The editor and chief of Play Girl Magazine Michele Zipp has recently come out as a Republican! According to Michele and I am paraphrasing Republican men are willing to fight for what they want which transfers into a very satisfactory experience in bed room. Rush Limbaugh commented on his radio show on Tuesday, “Perhaps that’s why most single women vote Democratic and married women vote overwhelmingly Republican?” Other women in the news, Teresa (shove it, you idiot ,scumbag)Heinz Kerry in the Seattle Post is claiming the election results were “hacked” by “right wingers” and terrorist sympathizer Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena claims the US tried to assonate her ,like we don’t have any American journalist that are pro-terrorist? Betsey Hoffman President of Colorado University resigned. The university has been under fire for more than a year over allegations of sexual misconduct and alcohol in its football-recruiting program and more recently, bigoted statements by “Professor” Ward Churchill calling people who died on 9/11 little “Ikemans” after the Nazi War Criminal of the same name. Sounds just like the UN to me. And finally in a big blow to the women all across the country X-President Bill Clinton has returned to the hospital for a second hart operation, sorry couldn’t resist that one.
The following retirement plan limit increases for 2005: 401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) Deferral Limit $14,000 Age 50+ Catch-Up Contribution Limit* $4,000* 457(b) Pre-Retirement Catch-Up Limit $28,000 Annual Addition Limitation for Defined Contribution Plans $42,000 Annual Benefit Limit for Defined Benefit Plans $170,000 Annual Compensation Limit $210,000 Annual Compensation Limit for certain eligible governmental plans $315,000 Highly Compensated Employee Definition Limit $95,000 Key Employee "officer" Definition Limit $135,000
I have been swamped lately by collecting “rollovers” .Many clients after several job changes the last few years, have assets spread out all over the place. It is easy to consolidate these assets into one tax free account. You can move assets into an IRA rollover and invest the money in safer short term bond funds if you are concerned about market direction. Consolidation also gives you a better grasp of what you are doing, eliminating over exposure of a particular asset class or duplication of fund choices. Thru Bear Stearns which is the clearing house I use you can pick from over 400 equity or fixed income fund families, that’s about 8000 funds. Most investors only need 3 to 5.
Let me know if I could be of service,
James
1(888)599-1188
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Monday, February 28, 2005
Is it art or just some orange shower curtains in the park?...mother love and trucks..
February 22, 2004
Hello,
Is it art or just some orange shower curtains in the park? I think the jury is still out. Artist or grifter ,I think the jury is still out. Sorry this email was delayed but Paris Hilton’s T-Mobile Sidekick was hacked this weekend and my phone lines have simply been flooded with nonstop calls .The US has pulled it ambassador from Syria and Tehran and Damascus have made a non-aggression pact if this was 1939 you would think we were going to war. Meanwhile Jose Canseco’s tell all book suggest many major leaguers were juiced up like the stock market of the same era. Following the lead of the NBA, the SEC is now limiting the amount of drinking and profanity brokerage clients and Investment Representatives can use. Kofii Annan claims in a recent wall street journal editorial that even though the UN is the center of the oil for food scandal, a child sex slave scandal in the Congo, part and parcel to the genocide in Darfor, a sexual harassment scandal in New York involving top UN officials and $1.2 billion in cost over runs for the UN headquarters in Turtle bay the UN is still relevant in it mission, now there’s an optimist.
President Bush pursued his “charm” tour in Europe, and managed to dislocate 92 Lufthansa flights, stranding thousands of passengers, but all in all a good time and Foi gras was had by all. Give it to me straight you thought Slovakia was a Greek pastry, didn’t you? Did he build bridges or just let them eat cake? Yea that’s what I thought too da, da, da. The president criticized Russia’s recent moves to tyranny and Vladimir Puntin criticized the firing of 3 CBS executives, after all in Russia when you commit felonies they make you President.
Back home the market played like an old country song singing a tune of “mother love and trucks”. Mother being anything involving energy, love being anything involving chemicals and trucks anything involving transportation and of coarse Technology continues to stumble. The US Congress continues to debate weather it is better for them to keep stealing your money through the present “ponzi” inspired social security system and its fictitious social security “trust fund” or fess up admit the fraud and raise your taxes to pay for it. If you are interested in social security check out this sight http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/social_security/ . Speaking of retirement savings, there are many opportunities for the small investor to put away money for old age no reason to depend on social security. If you are a bit gun shy of the stock market there are many short term bond funds that offer fairly stable conservative long term returns .No ,they will not perform like an internet IPO in 1999,but they beat the meager returns offered by most bank money markets.
James
Hello,
Is it art or just some orange shower curtains in the park? I think the jury is still out. Artist or grifter ,I think the jury is still out. Sorry this email was delayed but Paris Hilton’s T-Mobile Sidekick was hacked this weekend and my phone lines have simply been flooded with nonstop calls .The US has pulled it ambassador from Syria and Tehran and Damascus have made a non-aggression pact if this was 1939 you would think we were going to war. Meanwhile Jose Canseco’s tell all book suggest many major leaguers were juiced up like the stock market of the same era. Following the lead of the NBA, the SEC is now limiting the amount of drinking and profanity brokerage clients and Investment Representatives can use. Kofii Annan claims in a recent wall street journal editorial that even though the UN is the center of the oil for food scandal, a child sex slave scandal in the Congo, part and parcel to the genocide in Darfor, a sexual harassment scandal in New York involving top UN officials and $1.2 billion in cost over runs for the UN headquarters in Turtle bay the UN is still relevant in it mission, now there’s an optimist.
President Bush pursued his “charm” tour in Europe, and managed to dislocate 92 Lufthansa flights, stranding thousands of passengers, but all in all a good time and Foi gras was had by all. Give it to me straight you thought Slovakia was a Greek pastry, didn’t you? Did he build bridges or just let them eat cake? Yea that’s what I thought too da, da, da. The president criticized Russia’s recent moves to tyranny and Vladimir Puntin criticized the firing of 3 CBS executives, after all in Russia when you commit felonies they make you President.
Back home the market played like an old country song singing a tune of “mother love and trucks”. Mother being anything involving energy, love being anything involving chemicals and trucks anything involving transportation and of coarse Technology continues to stumble. The US Congress continues to debate weather it is better for them to keep stealing your money through the present “ponzi” inspired social security system and its fictitious social security “trust fund” or fess up admit the fraud and raise your taxes to pay for it. If you are interested in social security check out this sight http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/social_security/ . Speaking of retirement savings, there are many opportunities for the small investor to put away money for old age no reason to depend on social security. If you are a bit gun shy of the stock market there are many short term bond funds that offer fairly stable conservative long term returns .No ,they will not perform like an internet IPO in 1999,but they beat the meager returns offered by most bank money markets.
James
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Lobsters may feel no pain...
February 15, 2005
Hello,
Lobsters may feel no pain, but investors sometimes do. I have been asked often recently, is it really worth investing when the market has been so uninspiring the last 4 years? After all I could invest in real-estate and am certain to get rich. Certain…., as certain as the dot.com millionaires, as certain as an English major getting paid ½ million dollars a year in stock options in 1999, as certain as that local start up is going to be the next Microsoft? Real-estate always goes up, right? Hummm guess you didn’t buy in 1987. Guess you didn’t buy a ski condo in Vermont either? Seems the same people buying dot.com’s in the fall of 1999 are involved in real-estate speculation right now. Don’t hear Warren Buffet talking much about real-estate?
Every month do you know what your house is worth or do you think you know what your house is worth? Have you ever spent money on a new roof, a new floor a washer or dryer? Real-estate has those ups and downs just like your stock portfolio it is just not so readily obvious. Modern technology has given you minute by minute updates on your stocks and bonds, but alas not yet on your real-estate. Because you have a snowy winter and have to shovel a drive way more often than last year does it mean that it will always snow this much? You simply know that if you take care spring will come.
My point being the stock portfolios, like houses often need maintenance and things don’t always go your way, but short term ups and downs hardly affect a long term investment plan. The simple fact is the power is in the plan, buy a house pay off the mortgage, open and IRA make yearly deposits, or max out your 401k .Yes there will be volatility, ups and downs, day to day and month to month thru snow days and leaky roofs but long run the power is in taking the action and follow through on the plan.
James
Hello,
Lobsters may feel no pain, but investors sometimes do. I have been asked often recently, is it really worth investing when the market has been so uninspiring the last 4 years? After all I could invest in real-estate and am certain to get rich. Certain…., as certain as the dot.com millionaires, as certain as an English major getting paid ½ million dollars a year in stock options in 1999, as certain as that local start up is going to be the next Microsoft? Real-estate always goes up, right? Hummm guess you didn’t buy in 1987. Guess you didn’t buy a ski condo in Vermont either? Seems the same people buying dot.com’s in the fall of 1999 are involved in real-estate speculation right now. Don’t hear Warren Buffet talking much about real-estate?
Every month do you know what your house is worth or do you think you know what your house is worth? Have you ever spent money on a new roof, a new floor a washer or dryer? Real-estate has those ups and downs just like your stock portfolio it is just not so readily obvious. Modern technology has given you minute by minute updates on your stocks and bonds, but alas not yet on your real-estate. Because you have a snowy winter and have to shovel a drive way more often than last year does it mean that it will always snow this much? You simply know that if you take care spring will come.
My point being the stock portfolios, like houses often need maintenance and things don’t always go your way, but short term ups and downs hardly affect a long term investment plan. The simple fact is the power is in the plan, buy a house pay off the mortgage, open and IRA make yearly deposits, or max out your 401k .Yes there will be volatility, ups and downs, day to day and month to month thru snow days and leaky roofs but long run the power is in taking the action and follow through on the plan.
James
Monday, February 14, 2005
2.57 trillion is just not enough
February 7th 2005
Hello,
2.57 trillion dollars now that’s a lot of money. No matter how you slice it is just a whole lot of money. Even though we are spending too much, we are not spending enough. Even though we have a deficit we can’t make any cuts: I know I can’t figure it out either. Only in Washington is a smaller increase in spending considered a spending cut. Only in Washington is the largest government budget in US history not enough. A recent New York State Quinnipiac Poll stated that 64% of New Yorkers trust Hillary Clinton, no wonder the Governor has proposed selling the Tapanzee Bridge I think the State will find many willing buyers. Apparently the Iraqi’s have picked up on this democracy thing better than we thought the first election in 5000 years and there are already accusations of ballot box tampering .The Bush administration has sent observers from Dade County and a special envoy from Chicago, Bill Daley.
The companies in the S&P 500 had the biggest earning increases in more than a decade. While the twin deficits of trade and budget which have so captivated the main stream media seem to be subsiding .Valentines day 2005 gives us more of corporate America seeking partnerships. There are mergers, mergers every where .This whole market has a 1980’sish sort of feel. The over capacity generated with the tech bubble 1990’s is getting soaked up through mergers and acquisitions. I don’t think you will see the reemergence of the LBO as a major tool, but the days of the “nice guy” 1990’s are giving away to the “kick but and take names” attitude of the 1980’s. It looks to me like software and telecom are the main targets.
This week brings us another big lesson for individual investors: beware of the over hyped CEO, Carly Fiona has resigned as the CEO of Hewitt Packard .The super star status of a CEO is often a harbinger of doom for stock holders and Carly was no different, pursuing a skeptical strategy with poor execution. If your CEO is busy showing up on “Opera” or decorating the covers of various magazines, it means they are not putting in the time to run the business. Carly is not the first and I am sure she wont be the last, “rock star” status just doesn’t seem to deliver return to the shareholders.
I am so glad Paul McCartney keep to his word and kept his clothes on for the Super Bowl half time show. A naked 62 year old was not something I was looking forward seeing.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Hello,
2.57 trillion dollars now that’s a lot of money. No matter how you slice it is just a whole lot of money. Even though we are spending too much, we are not spending enough. Even though we have a deficit we can’t make any cuts: I know I can’t figure it out either. Only in Washington is a smaller increase in spending considered a spending cut. Only in Washington is the largest government budget in US history not enough. A recent New York State Quinnipiac Poll stated that 64% of New Yorkers trust Hillary Clinton, no wonder the Governor has proposed selling the Tapanzee Bridge I think the State will find many willing buyers. Apparently the Iraqi’s have picked up on this democracy thing better than we thought the first election in 5000 years and there are already accusations of ballot box tampering .The Bush administration has sent observers from Dade County and a special envoy from Chicago, Bill Daley.
The companies in the S&P 500 had the biggest earning increases in more than a decade. While the twin deficits of trade and budget which have so captivated the main stream media seem to be subsiding .Valentines day 2005 gives us more of corporate America seeking partnerships. There are mergers, mergers every where .This whole market has a 1980’sish sort of feel. The over capacity generated with the tech bubble 1990’s is getting soaked up through mergers and acquisitions. I don’t think you will see the reemergence of the LBO as a major tool, but the days of the “nice guy” 1990’s are giving away to the “kick but and take names” attitude of the 1980’s. It looks to me like software and telecom are the main targets.
This week brings us another big lesson for individual investors: beware of the over hyped CEO, Carly Fiona has resigned as the CEO of Hewitt Packard .The super star status of a CEO is often a harbinger of doom for stock holders and Carly was no different, pursuing a skeptical strategy with poor execution. If your CEO is busy showing up on “Opera” or decorating the covers of various magazines, it means they are not putting in the time to run the business. Carly is not the first and I am sure she wont be the last, “rock star” status just doesn’t seem to deliver return to the shareholders.
I am so glad Paul McCartney keep to his word and kept his clothes on for the Super Bowl half time show. A naked 62 year old was not something I was looking forward seeing.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
Monday, February 07, 2005
This is a vote for the future, for the children, for the rule of law, for humanity, for love.......................1982
February 2, 2005
Hello,
Let the counting begin, on this day the Iraqi people gave the blue finger to the terrorist and their allies in the mainstream media and the US congress. This axis against democracy was resoundly defeated and rejected. The issue now is not weather the Shites in Iran will influence Iraq but weather the Shites in Iraq will influence Iran and the rest of the mid east .Next time you hear complaints by US voters of long lines at polling places, just think how the Iraqi people braved gunfire, violence, beheadings, car bombs, media antagonism and acts of barbarity, to pursue their right of self determination.
Meanwhile the ground hog did not see his shadow, humm looks like six more weeks of winter or maybe it is six more weeks of market volatility. I am sure some Wall Street analysis’s is running the numbers as we speak. Like the January barometer, I spoke about in last week’s email which is signaling a down market. Well maybe not, just remember 1982, and the beginning of the great bull market, it bears repeating because there seems to be a very strong corollary between then and now. Remember a “stupid cowboy” named Ronald Reagan waged the cold war to win, cut taxes, deregulated, fought unions, moved for freer trade, pushed the Lauffer curve, ran budget and trade deficits, rebuilt the military, pursued star wars technology, and of coarse again he was” just a stupid movie star cowboy and going to start a nuclear war”. Sounds so familiar and perhaps it sounds so familiar to the stock market as well. Meanwhile we won the cold war, tax cuts created a huge economic boom, the DOW rallied from under 1000 to 12,000 in 18 years.
By the way if the Social Security System is so great how come members of the US Congress do not participate in the plan? Any ways don’t forget for 2005 your IRA contributions have been increased from $3000 to $4000 and it is not too late to make your 2004 contribution you have until April 15th. If you have not done so 2004 and 2005 contributions can be made this year; you only need to make two separate deposits. This could give some investors a jump start of $7000 toward their retirement funding.
James
Sorry Eagles, wait till next year…..
Hello,
Let the counting begin, on this day the Iraqi people gave the blue finger to the terrorist and their allies in the mainstream media and the US congress. This axis against democracy was resoundly defeated and rejected. The issue now is not weather the Shites in Iran will influence Iraq but weather the Shites in Iraq will influence Iran and the rest of the mid east .Next time you hear complaints by US voters of long lines at polling places, just think how the Iraqi people braved gunfire, violence, beheadings, car bombs, media antagonism and acts of barbarity, to pursue their right of self determination.
Meanwhile the ground hog did not see his shadow, humm looks like six more weeks of winter or maybe it is six more weeks of market volatility. I am sure some Wall Street analysis’s is running the numbers as we speak. Like the January barometer, I spoke about in last week’s email which is signaling a down market. Well maybe not, just remember 1982, and the beginning of the great bull market, it bears repeating because there seems to be a very strong corollary between then and now. Remember a “stupid cowboy” named Ronald Reagan waged the cold war to win, cut taxes, deregulated, fought unions, moved for freer trade, pushed the Lauffer curve, ran budget and trade deficits, rebuilt the military, pursued star wars technology, and of coarse again he was” just a stupid movie star cowboy and going to start a nuclear war”. Sounds so familiar and perhaps it sounds so familiar to the stock market as well. Meanwhile we won the cold war, tax cuts created a huge economic boom, the DOW rallied from under 1000 to 12,000 in 18 years.
By the way if the Social Security System is so great how come members of the US Congress do not participate in the plan? Any ways don’t forget for 2005 your IRA contributions have been increased from $3000 to $4000 and it is not too late to make your 2004 contribution you have until April 15th. If you have not done so 2004 and 2005 contributions can be made this year; you only need to make two separate deposits. This could give some investors a jump start of $7000 toward their retirement funding.
James
Sorry Eagles, wait till next year…..
Sunday, January 30, 2005
all hands on deck
January 26,2005
Hello,
Ok, Ok it the worst start for the market since 1982, but what happened in August of 1982? The start of the major bull market that went from 1982 till 2000 producing outsized returns close to 15% a year and pushing the DOW from just under 1000 to over
12000. It gets particularly ugly for the short term investor just prior to the start of the next secular Bull market. Post bubble time periods share many of the same trading phenomenon; first and for most Index Funds tend to underperform the market as the Indexes themselves seem to tread water showing little or no direction. 2nd Momentum investing fails to produce consistent returns and stock pickers out perform. We may have period of lower highs and lower lows punctuated by big short term rallies and longer sell offs. Investors should be using these sell offs to accumulate positions in equities. Once many of the optimists throw in the towel on the market, overwhelming pessimism will signal the beginning of a new super bull market. Look for a big bump up in volume to signal the turn.
The other big issues that has begun to trouble me more and more is the attempt some politicians to tell you how to invest and know what right for you based on after the fact information. As a financial professional I consider it part of my job to protect you and your money from the media, the firms, the industry and yourself, but I am going to add one more group Uncle Sam and his minions of regulators namely at the moment Elliot Spitzer (NY Attorney General). Though Mr .Spitzer has positioned himself as the white night for the small investor and on many issues like getting directors of companies like ENRON to pay up he can not be impugned, but he is going a bit to far when he starts to interfere with the investment process deciding which type of mutual fund pricing structure is right for you. Only you know your particular situation and can weigh the funds pricing structure which best meets your plan and goals and your needs. Mr. Spitzer would be better to spend his time protecting the public from over inflated asset valuations based on false premises ie…political corruption and bad accounting.
And finally despite efforts by terrorist and their allies in the media and in the US Senate to stop the move toward freedom and democracy, Iraq will hold historic elections. People have the right to determine there own destiny. The secret weapon of all democracies is women. Women of Iraq will prevail and vote in great numbers .No mother wants their son or daughter to grow up to be a suicide bomber. The vote of women has done much to destroy the Taliban as a political force and other tyrannies. Women set free to express their voice also brought Japan from an absolute tyranny to the more open global competitor and the ally that it is today. Liberty is calling and the people of Iraq will answer in great numbers. Democracy is a process not an end result. It is not lost on those who defend our freedom that the forces of tyranny and nihilism emanate primarily from the part of the world that has seen the smallest growth in freedom and democracy. While the amount of Democracies in the world has almost doubled in the last 30 years the mid east stands alone in the lack of participation. At the moment Israel is the only representative democracy. What does this all have to do with the stock market? Freedom and Democracy lead to stability, prosperity and peace and in case you missed the last 20 years, that’s good for the stock market!
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
Ok, Ok it the worst start for the market since 1982, but what happened in August of 1982? The start of the major bull market that went from 1982 till 2000 producing outsized returns close to 15% a year and pushing the DOW from just under 1000 to over
12000. It gets particularly ugly for the short term investor just prior to the start of the next secular Bull market. Post bubble time periods share many of the same trading phenomenon; first and for most Index Funds tend to underperform the market as the Indexes themselves seem to tread water showing little or no direction. 2nd Momentum investing fails to produce consistent returns and stock pickers out perform. We may have period of lower highs and lower lows punctuated by big short term rallies and longer sell offs. Investors should be using these sell offs to accumulate positions in equities. Once many of the optimists throw in the towel on the market, overwhelming pessimism will signal the beginning of a new super bull market. Look for a big bump up in volume to signal the turn.
The other big issues that has begun to trouble me more and more is the attempt some politicians to tell you how to invest and know what right for you based on after the fact information. As a financial professional I consider it part of my job to protect you and your money from the media, the firms, the industry and yourself, but I am going to add one more group Uncle Sam and his minions of regulators namely at the moment Elliot Spitzer (NY Attorney General). Though Mr .Spitzer has positioned himself as the white night for the small investor and on many issues like getting directors of companies like ENRON to pay up he can not be impugned, but he is going a bit to far when he starts to interfere with the investment process deciding which type of mutual fund pricing structure is right for you. Only you know your particular situation and can weigh the funds pricing structure which best meets your plan and goals and your needs. Mr. Spitzer would be better to spend his time protecting the public from over inflated asset valuations based on false premises ie…political corruption and bad accounting.
And finally despite efforts by terrorist and their allies in the media and in the US Senate to stop the move toward freedom and democracy, Iraq will hold historic elections. People have the right to determine there own destiny. The secret weapon of all democracies is women. Women of Iraq will prevail and vote in great numbers .No mother wants their son or daughter to grow up to be a suicide bomber. The vote of women has done much to destroy the Taliban as a political force and other tyrannies. Women set free to express their voice also brought Japan from an absolute tyranny to the more open global competitor and the ally that it is today. Liberty is calling and the people of Iraq will answer in great numbers. Democracy is a process not an end result. It is not lost on those who defend our freedom that the forces of tyranny and nihilism emanate primarily from the part of the world that has seen the smallest growth in freedom and democracy. While the amount of Democracies in the world has almost doubled in the last 30 years the mid east stands alone in the lack of participation. At the moment Israel is the only representative democracy. What does this all have to do with the stock market? Freedom and Democracy lead to stability, prosperity and peace and in case you missed the last 20 years, that’s good for the stock market!
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
fortune favors the bold..........
MARKET PERFORMANCE
Year 2004
12/31/03 12/31/04 2004
Close Close Performance
DJIA 10,453.90 10,783.01 Up 3.15%
S&P 500 1,111.92 1,211.92 Up 8.99%
NASDAQ 2,003.37 2,175.44 Up 8.59%
Russell 2000 556.91 651.57 Up 16.99%
January 7, 2004
Hello,
Dan, Dan duck an cover, where are you Dan….when the going got tuff Dan is no where to be found…courage Dan, Courage…So far the January effect has been noticeable absent . Buyers seem disgruntled, while sellers greet each day with glee. Each passing day has given the sellers a new reason to sell. Many of the reasons to sell are met with “myopic zeal”, and most of the reasons seem fallacious and recycled; like there is no political bias at CBS, or smoking gives you cancer, or consumer spending will slow down or most likely it is Roger Ailes fault or Bush or the bloggers or the FED or the budget, trade or some other deficit. Yes folks it is glum and the end is near. The trade deficit continues to grow because our economy is still growing faster than our trading partners. Because consumers are forced to save so much money shopping at wall mart, they continue to spend on new cars and new homes. Things simple could not get any worse. In fact the real “axis of evil” tax cuts, Karl Rove and Halliburton have managed one more awful result, the budget deficit is actually declining. Be very, very quite don’t tell anyone but the tax cuts caused and increase in revenues of 10.5 % while government spending during a war only increased 6.1% .Yes I know the old folks only get free medicine not free booze and mid night basketball was cancelled, but hey we all gotta make sacrifices.
If you’re “tired of the freak show of political pornography”, and are pondering why so often good news gets met with grunts and groans, I have a few ideas as to why the market has clearly lost it’s mojo. First the Iraqi election has the terrorist and their backers (Iran, Syria and others) scrambling to do as much destruction as possible because they know this election will signal the end of the legitimacy of the tyrannies that govern the mid east. Obviously oil facilities are in direct threat and there for so is the fuel that propels the worlds engine. 2nd It is becoming more and more obvious that the “insurgency” in Iraqi is being financed and fueled and fought by outside forces ,except for the remnants of the old Bathest Regime. They have no popular or religious backing what so ever. This implies that these forces will have to be dealt with. Rumors are circulating that Syria may be next and the offensive will come as early as February right after the Iraqi election. 3rd some of our “friends” in the mid east like Saudi Arabia may also oppose a free and independent Iraq. A friendly Iraq will lessen our dependence on their oil and put pressure on others in the mid east to form more open and representative societies.
And finally it seems the cost of the Presidential Inauguration has gotten some peoples skirts up .If the New York Yankees can have a $201 million dollar payroll on a baseball team and the UN can skin at lest 1.4 billion from the oil for food program or better put from the starving mouths of Iraqi children, I hardly think $40 million dollars in private donations is a big deal one way or the other. And what about those gift bags at the Golden Globes, some say they were worth $40 thousand a bag no scaling back there. I need to get out more.
Remember you can “bork” but you can only “bork” so often
James
http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
10:17 ET 2005 Will Be A Good Year : 2005 is bound to a good year for the stock market. Why? Because all years that end in a "5" have been good years. There is no rational explanation for it, but the years ending in "5" have all been years of positive returns for the stock market. The following table illustrates the total returns of the market, measured by the S&P500 since 1905. (The S&P500 did not exist prior to 1950, the earlier historical returns are reconstructed returns.) (BRIEFING.COM)
Year
Total Return %
1905 7.0
1915 14.0
1925 13.0
1935 46.0
1945 35.7
1955 31.0
1965 12.3
1975 36.9
1985 31.1
1995 34.0
No Guarantee The above trend is more than 100 years old with a 100% accuracy.
Year 2004
12/31/03 12/31/04 2004
Close Close Performance
DJIA 10,453.90 10,783.01 Up 3.15%
S&P 500 1,111.92 1,211.92 Up 8.99%
NASDAQ 2,003.37 2,175.44 Up 8.59%
Russell 2000 556.91 651.57 Up 16.99%
January 7, 2004
Hello,
Dan, Dan duck an cover, where are you Dan….when the going got tuff Dan is no where to be found…courage Dan, Courage…So far the January effect has been noticeable absent . Buyers seem disgruntled, while sellers greet each day with glee. Each passing day has given the sellers a new reason to sell. Many of the reasons to sell are met with “myopic zeal”, and most of the reasons seem fallacious and recycled; like there is no political bias at CBS, or smoking gives you cancer, or consumer spending will slow down or most likely it is Roger Ailes fault or Bush or the bloggers or the FED or the budget, trade or some other deficit. Yes folks it is glum and the end is near. The trade deficit continues to grow because our economy is still growing faster than our trading partners. Because consumers are forced to save so much money shopping at wall mart, they continue to spend on new cars and new homes. Things simple could not get any worse. In fact the real “axis of evil” tax cuts, Karl Rove and Halliburton have managed one more awful result, the budget deficit is actually declining. Be very, very quite don’t tell anyone but the tax cuts caused and increase in revenues of 10.5 % while government spending during a war only increased 6.1% .Yes I know the old folks only get free medicine not free booze and mid night basketball was cancelled, but hey we all gotta make sacrifices.
If you’re “tired of the freak show of political pornography”, and are pondering why so often good news gets met with grunts and groans, I have a few ideas as to why the market has clearly lost it’s mojo. First the Iraqi election has the terrorist and their backers (Iran, Syria and others) scrambling to do as much destruction as possible because they know this election will signal the end of the legitimacy of the tyrannies that govern the mid east. Obviously oil facilities are in direct threat and there for so is the fuel that propels the worlds engine. 2nd It is becoming more and more obvious that the “insurgency” in Iraqi is being financed and fueled and fought by outside forces ,except for the remnants of the old Bathest Regime. They have no popular or religious backing what so ever. This implies that these forces will have to be dealt with. Rumors are circulating that Syria may be next and the offensive will come as early as February right after the Iraqi election. 3rd some of our “friends” in the mid east like Saudi Arabia may also oppose a free and independent Iraq. A friendly Iraq will lessen our dependence on their oil and put pressure on others in the mid east to form more open and representative societies.
And finally it seems the cost of the Presidential Inauguration has gotten some peoples skirts up .If the New York Yankees can have a $201 million dollar payroll on a baseball team and the UN can skin at lest 1.4 billion from the oil for food program or better put from the starving mouths of Iraqi children, I hardly think $40 million dollars in private donations is a big deal one way or the other. And what about those gift bags at the Golden Globes, some say they were worth $40 thousand a bag no scaling back there. I need to get out more.
Remember you can “bork” but you can only “bork” so often
James
http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
10:17 ET 2005 Will Be A Good Year : 2005 is bound to a good year for the stock market. Why? Because all years that end in a "5" have been good years. There is no rational explanation for it, but the years ending in "5" have all been years of positive returns for the stock market. The following table illustrates the total returns of the market, measured by the S&P500 since 1905. (The S&P500 did not exist prior to 1950, the earlier historical returns are reconstructed returns.) (BRIEFING.COM)
Year
Total Return %
1905 7.0
1915 14.0
1925 13.0
1935 46.0
1945 35.7
1955 31.0
1965 12.3
1975 36.9
1985 31.1
1995 34.0
No Guarantee The above trend is more than 100 years old with a 100% accuracy.
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
stingy......................nuts!
December 27, 2004
Hello,
*First a quick note on the Tsunami: I find it very disgusting that any one would use a tragedy of this magnitude to make cheap political points. Spending and giving someone else’s money is not charity, it is mooching! Since the UN has proven time and time again that they do not have the ability to act decisively in a crisis there is no reason to think that they can contribute anything positive to this crisis. The UN has once again demonstrated their failure of leadership and their failure to act. President Bush has wisely circumvented the UN bureaucracy and skimming machine, delivering aid directly with our allies in Japan, India, Australia and Great Brittan to the areas affected.
Folks this is my year end market letter, so like everyone else I’ll try to pick the winners and the losers, separate the wheat from the chaff and separate the boys from the men. It is a tall order given the markets propensity to make pundits consistently look like fools. Recent moves in the market since the November election only reconfirm my earlier prognostications. Succinctly speaking; the economy will boom and the stock market will zoom. While the nay-sayers in the mainstream media will continue to harp that the end is near, and it is all George Bush’s fault, the reality is far different. Inflations continues to remain under control, interest rates despite raises remain low, consumer spending and housing continue at a brisk pace, energy prices will continue in their fall ,productivity will grow like a weed, payroll employment will continue to increase and new business formation will flourish. Yes, I am very bullish.
So instead of reminiscing about 2004’s have’s and have not’s, winners and losers, the two Americas ,where are the WMD’s, where they aren’t, whose axis of evil anyway, super bowl half times shows, not my president, Grey Davis, Howard Stern, Gay Marriage , the death of a president ,1000 causalities ,too prolif or not, global warming ,global cooling ,graying of snow, the yellowing of snow, the ice caps are melting, Halliburton, FOX/CNN, too Google, old media ,new media, you’re fired, red sox, red states ,blue states or pink states, Jesus land ,massive right wing conspiracy, it’s a quagmire ,to vote or not ,presidential libraries or trailer parks, the Swifties, Mekong delta, war hero for who, and recounts and recounts and recounts oh my……
So if all this leaves you confused , empty and blue (or red) the most important thing to remember are those years ending in 5 always seem to be up! In 1995, the S&P 500 Index was up 34.1 percent. In 1985, the S&P 500 was up 26.3 percent. In 1975, the Index was up 31.5 percent. In 1965, the S&P 500 was up 9.1 percent. In 1955, the S&P 500 was up 26.4 percent and in 1945; the index was up 30.7 percent. I make no promises I am just telling the numbers just the facts mam, just the facts.
Happy New Year and thank you again for all the referrals!
James
I want to say Happy Birthday to our beloved web designer Kristine D Paige (January 2 ….)
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/
http://www.ridgewoodrepublicanclub.com/
Hello,
*First a quick note on the Tsunami: I find it very disgusting that any one would use a tragedy of this magnitude to make cheap political points. Spending and giving someone else’s money is not charity, it is mooching! Since the UN has proven time and time again that they do not have the ability to act decisively in a crisis there is no reason to think that they can contribute anything positive to this crisis. The UN has once again demonstrated their failure of leadership and their failure to act. President Bush has wisely circumvented the UN bureaucracy and skimming machine, delivering aid directly with our allies in Japan, India, Australia and Great Brittan to the areas affected.
Folks this is my year end market letter, so like everyone else I’ll try to pick the winners and the losers, separate the wheat from the chaff and separate the boys from the men. It is a tall order given the markets propensity to make pundits consistently look like fools. Recent moves in the market since the November election only reconfirm my earlier prognostications. Succinctly speaking; the economy will boom and the stock market will zoom. While the nay-sayers in the mainstream media will continue to harp that the end is near, and it is all George Bush’s fault, the reality is far different. Inflations continues to remain under control, interest rates despite raises remain low, consumer spending and housing continue at a brisk pace, energy prices will continue in their fall ,productivity will grow like a weed, payroll employment will continue to increase and new business formation will flourish. Yes, I am very bullish.
So instead of reminiscing about 2004’s have’s and have not’s, winners and losers, the two Americas ,where are the WMD’s, where they aren’t, whose axis of evil anyway, super bowl half times shows, not my president, Grey Davis, Howard Stern, Gay Marriage , the death of a president ,1000 causalities ,too prolif or not, global warming ,global cooling ,graying of snow, the yellowing of snow, the ice caps are melting, Halliburton, FOX/CNN, too Google, old media ,new media, you’re fired, red sox, red states ,blue states or pink states, Jesus land ,massive right wing conspiracy, it’s a quagmire ,to vote or not ,presidential libraries or trailer parks, the Swifties, Mekong delta, war hero for who, and recounts and recounts and recounts oh my……
So if all this leaves you confused , empty and blue (or red) the most important thing to remember are those years ending in 5 always seem to be up! In 1995, the S&P 500 Index was up 34.1 percent. In 1985, the S&P 500 was up 26.3 percent. In 1975, the Index was up 31.5 percent. In 1965, the S&P 500 was up 9.1 percent. In 1955, the S&P 500 was up 26.4 percent and in 1945; the index was up 30.7 percent. I make no promises I am just telling the numbers just the facts mam, just the facts.
Happy New Year and thank you again for all the referrals!
James
I want to say Happy Birthday to our beloved web designer Kristine D Paige (January 2 ….)
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/
http://www.ridgewoodrepublicanclub.com/
Sunday, January 02, 2005
you go with the army you have not the army you want
December 16, 2004
Hello,
Today is the 60th anniversary of the battle of the bulge and that brings to mind a few lessons about war. The war in Europe was considered over then out of nowhere in one of the worst winters, with no air cover the Germans attacked with troops they weren’t supposed to have, with equipment they were not supposed to have, to win a war that was considered lost. Our troops were unprepared, our Generals were considered incompetent, our supplies were wrong, our equipment was poor, and our infantry was in short supply. Seems the problem with wars is that the enemy gets in the way of our best laid plans.
By the way the congress approves all military spending, allocates all the money and overseas how the money was spent, and reviews all the intelligence. Criticizing the secretary of defense or anyone else for that matter for congressional failings is a bit offensive. Congress needs to contribute more than ,telling the public to go about your business after 9/11,while they take time off and run home to hide ,but only after giving themselves an other pay raise.
It is office party season, who got invited to what? Did you get invited? Seems the party these days on Wall Street is the erge to merge, Johnson and Johnson eyes Guidant, Nextel courts Sprint, but wait now maybe it is Verizon ,Symantec goes after Veritas and Oracle finally gets with People soft and so it goes. What does all this tell us about the market, seems the big money sees a lot of bargains out there and so should you.
Bernard Kerik recently stepped aside as the Presidents nomination for Home Land Security Czar it seems he is being accused of being involved in a bum Real-estate deal, two extra marital affairs, polygamy, ties to the mob and an undocumented alien nanny, sounds like a good candidate for the next Governor of New Jersey.
Happy Holidays!
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
Today is the 60th anniversary of the battle of the bulge and that brings to mind a few lessons about war. The war in Europe was considered over then out of nowhere in one of the worst winters, with no air cover the Germans attacked with troops they weren’t supposed to have, with equipment they were not supposed to have, to win a war that was considered lost. Our troops were unprepared, our Generals were considered incompetent, our supplies were wrong, our equipment was poor, and our infantry was in short supply. Seems the problem with wars is that the enemy gets in the way of our best laid plans.
By the way the congress approves all military spending, allocates all the money and overseas how the money was spent, and reviews all the intelligence. Criticizing the secretary of defense or anyone else for that matter for congressional failings is a bit offensive. Congress needs to contribute more than ,telling the public to go about your business after 9/11,while they take time off and run home to hide ,but only after giving themselves an other pay raise.
It is office party season, who got invited to what? Did you get invited? Seems the party these days on Wall Street is the erge to merge, Johnson and Johnson eyes Guidant, Nextel courts Sprint, but wait now maybe it is Verizon ,Symantec goes after Veritas and Oracle finally gets with People soft and so it goes. What does all this tell us about the market, seems the big money sees a lot of bargains out there and so should you.
Bernard Kerik recently stepped aside as the Presidents nomination for Home Land Security Czar it seems he is being accused of being involved in a bum Real-estate deal, two extra marital affairs, polygamy, ties to the mob and an undocumented alien nanny, sounds like a good candidate for the next Governor of New Jersey.
Happy Holidays!
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Friday, December 10, 2004
"maddeness has the advantage of suprise", Kofi must go now
December 6, 2004
Hello,
Don’t bet the ranch, that’s what the NASD says, the pro’s scale into stock positions over time using the power of dollar cost averaging. Just waiting for the Santa Clause rally, despite the lack of performance of the indexes the market internals continues to trend to the positive. There was a three year period at the end of the 1990’s were indexes out performed ,but now it seems we are back to a more traditional stock pickers market ,were certain stocks and certain sectors significantly out perform. It is very important to use this holiday season to position your self for next year. Year end activities: remember you only pay taxes on realized gains. In theory your account should be up yet you should have realized losses. This time of the year it is a good idea to clean house and sell your losers, especially if you have taken some gains during the year. However I have often found that putting off taking a stock gain for the sole purposes of avoiding taxes leads to folly and perhaps disaster; ask anyone who didn’t sell in December 1999.
One day Sigmund Freud was smoking a very large cigar while lecturing on oral fixation, when questioned by a student on his stogie Dr. Freud responded,” sometimes a cigar is just a cigar”. The reason I bring this up is with the market moving up and down from day to day with all the economic data there is a tendency of some “experts” to assign specific market moves to trivial events of the day .Folks sometimes a cigar is just a cigar meaning, the ebbs and flow of the day to day market moves may have no correlation to the day to day news events what so ever. Even if there is a correlation, correlations in the stock market tend come and go.
This brings us to one more year end pearl of wisdom, “even a broken clock is right twice a day”. With all the reporters, pundits and pollsters seemingly endless speculations on the fate of humanity, state of the economy and laments of moral decline of mankind it is important to keep in mind that no one ever questions them on any inaccurate predictions. The pollster Zogby has even gone as far as to say that his polls were right and it was our vote that was wrong. Why do I bring this up ,well first on wall street no one ever got fired for being to bearish: bearishness protects capital even if it does not make any. Secondly what makes these guys experts anyway after all they are almost always wrong? And finally there is a tendency to see in the numbers and charts what ever you want it to be; if you want oil prices to be higher because your making money of the price raise ,everything you see tells you oil prices will be higher. This gets back to my point ,pundits promote there own self interest not yours ,they can like a broken clock and be accidentally right from time to time, but that does not mean you should not look at what ever they say with great suspicion.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://www.corporategrowthconcepts.com/
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
http://www.ridgewoodrepublicanclub.com/index.html
Hello,
Don’t bet the ranch, that’s what the NASD says, the pro’s scale into stock positions over time using the power of dollar cost averaging. Just waiting for the Santa Clause rally, despite the lack of performance of the indexes the market internals continues to trend to the positive. There was a three year period at the end of the 1990’s were indexes out performed ,but now it seems we are back to a more traditional stock pickers market ,were certain stocks and certain sectors significantly out perform. It is very important to use this holiday season to position your self for next year. Year end activities: remember you only pay taxes on realized gains. In theory your account should be up yet you should have realized losses. This time of the year it is a good idea to clean house and sell your losers, especially if you have taken some gains during the year. However I have often found that putting off taking a stock gain for the sole purposes of avoiding taxes leads to folly and perhaps disaster; ask anyone who didn’t sell in December 1999.
One day Sigmund Freud was smoking a very large cigar while lecturing on oral fixation, when questioned by a student on his stogie Dr. Freud responded,” sometimes a cigar is just a cigar”. The reason I bring this up is with the market moving up and down from day to day with all the economic data there is a tendency of some “experts” to assign specific market moves to trivial events of the day .Folks sometimes a cigar is just a cigar meaning, the ebbs and flow of the day to day market moves may have no correlation to the day to day news events what so ever. Even if there is a correlation, correlations in the stock market tend come and go.
This brings us to one more year end pearl of wisdom, “even a broken clock is right twice a day”. With all the reporters, pundits and pollsters seemingly endless speculations on the fate of humanity, state of the economy and laments of moral decline of mankind it is important to keep in mind that no one ever questions them on any inaccurate predictions. The pollster Zogby has even gone as far as to say that his polls were right and it was our vote that was wrong. Why do I bring this up ,well first on wall street no one ever got fired for being to bearish: bearishness protects capital even if it does not make any. Secondly what makes these guys experts anyway after all they are almost always wrong? And finally there is a tendency to see in the numbers and charts what ever you want it to be; if you want oil prices to be higher because your making money of the price raise ,everything you see tells you oil prices will be higher. This gets back to my point ,pundits promote there own self interest not yours ,they can like a broken clock and be accidentally right from time to time, but that does not mean you should not look at what ever they say with great suspicion.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
http://www.corporategrowthconcepts.com/
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
http://www.ridgewoodrepublicanclub.com/index.html
Thursday, December 02, 2004
rather not be rather
December 1, 2004
Hello,
Funny the Saudi’s announce a huge increase in their capacity to produce oil and oil prices raise? Consumers spent money as the expression goes like “drunken sailors”, increasing spending by a whopping 5.1% paying apparently scant attention to the “consumer confidence numbers”. Funny again that real spending has less of am impact on the pundits than consumer confidence polls? Sounds strikingly familiar to something? Wall Street continues to chant the sky is falling, the sky is falling, don’t buy it for one minute! The more the wall of worry keeps increasing the more chances for investors to be rewarded with upside surprises, and strong stock advances.
So why is the dollar really falling in value? The US for decades has been the buyer of last resort for all foreign goods. As a country we seem to have an insatiable appetite. Very good demographics have continued to propel US to consume all that is offered. A strong currency keeps prices and inflation down. Some countries like Japan have horrible demographics and need to export there way to prosperity. Because of Japans success many emerging countries have been encouraged to follow the Japanese model. The problem being that some of these countries like China have huge unmet internal demand making it entirely unnecessary for them to think that they can and should export there way to prosperity. Every country has different population demographics, skills, educational levels and resources. Common sense would suggest to anyone that different countries need differing development policies. Far too many countries are following the same model, keeping the currency cheap, and exporting there way to fame and fortune. There are simply not enough buyers. What we see is market forces attempting to rebalance the value of certain currencies to change the equation. The US can no longer afford to buy everything from everyone. The devaluation of the US dollar will pressure Asia and Europe and force shifts from export driven economies to something more balanced. Asia looks most likely to have a currency crisis while Europe looks most likely to be hurt in the long run.
Now Ridgewoods largest dealer of Iraqi Dinars,
James
Hello,
Funny the Saudi’s announce a huge increase in their capacity to produce oil and oil prices raise? Consumers spent money as the expression goes like “drunken sailors”, increasing spending by a whopping 5.1% paying apparently scant attention to the “consumer confidence numbers”. Funny again that real spending has less of am impact on the pundits than consumer confidence polls? Sounds strikingly familiar to something? Wall Street continues to chant the sky is falling, the sky is falling, don’t buy it for one minute! The more the wall of worry keeps increasing the more chances for investors to be rewarded with upside surprises, and strong stock advances.
So why is the dollar really falling in value? The US for decades has been the buyer of last resort for all foreign goods. As a country we seem to have an insatiable appetite. Very good demographics have continued to propel US to consume all that is offered. A strong currency keeps prices and inflation down. Some countries like Japan have horrible demographics and need to export there way to prosperity. Because of Japans success many emerging countries have been encouraged to follow the Japanese model. The problem being that some of these countries like China have huge unmet internal demand making it entirely unnecessary for them to think that they can and should export there way to prosperity. Every country has different population demographics, skills, educational levels and resources. Common sense would suggest to anyone that different countries need differing development policies. Far too many countries are following the same model, keeping the currency cheap, and exporting there way to fame and fortune. There are simply not enough buyers. What we see is market forces attempting to rebalance the value of certain currencies to change the equation. The US can no longer afford to buy everything from everyone. The devaluation of the US dollar will pressure Asia and Europe and force shifts from export driven economies to something more balanced. Asia looks most likely to have a currency crisis while Europe looks most likely to be hurt in the long run.
Now Ridgewoods largest dealer of Iraqi Dinars,
James
Thursday, November 25, 2004
Where's the camera? Stuff just happens, don't go there Peter ,don't go there
November 22, 2004
Hello Happy Thanksgiving,
OK…What can an out of control fight at an NBA game teach us about investing? Well I guess it pays to have extra security. A new term has been coined an “NBA” moment, but folks don’t think it applies to you and me, you have to make 10 million dollars a year and have a 12 dollar beer thrown on you from a guy sitting in a 3 thousand dollar seat so you too can act like a total irresponsible idiot. And by the way according to the NBA Players Association it is all Bush’s fault anyway. Now that I have cleared that up hey, sh…stuff happens.
So if you’re not making 10 million dollars a year or can’t afford a 3thousand dollar ticket to a game but could afford a 12 dollar beer dollar cost averaging is what it is all about. You may not have the money but you probably have the time. At first it starts up slow and seems like nothing. Over time you can apply the rule of 72; divide any rate of return into the number 72 and the sum gives you the number of years it takes to double your money. So if your return averages 5 % it takes 14.4 years to double your money. It seems long to some but given the fact that Social Security will be bankrupt in less than 20 years it is certainly worth taking a shot and getting going.
Folks investing is more practice, it is doing not talking .Investing is setting a plan and working a plan. For most of us it is more about follow through than about brilliant stock picking. Sure a good stock here and there will your boost returns, but the truth is a couple of mediocre funds or an index fund over time with follow through will breed excellent results. It is all about consistently working the plan, adding money time in and time out.
So what do investors have to be thankful for? Well for one Microsoft is finally going to pay out the 3 bucks, Kmart discovered location, no one raised taxes on dividends, short term capital loses and long term capital gains, tankers ,trucks and trains , just google it but sell it before the lock up ends.
James
Ps. Again thank you for all the referrals!
Hello Happy Thanksgiving,
OK…What can an out of control fight at an NBA game teach us about investing? Well I guess it pays to have extra security. A new term has been coined an “NBA” moment, but folks don’t think it applies to you and me, you have to make 10 million dollars a year and have a 12 dollar beer thrown on you from a guy sitting in a 3 thousand dollar seat so you too can act like a total irresponsible idiot. And by the way according to the NBA Players Association it is all Bush’s fault anyway. Now that I have cleared that up hey, sh…stuff happens.
So if you’re not making 10 million dollars a year or can’t afford a 3thousand dollar ticket to a game but could afford a 12 dollar beer dollar cost averaging is what it is all about. You may not have the money but you probably have the time. At first it starts up slow and seems like nothing. Over time you can apply the rule of 72; divide any rate of return into the number 72 and the sum gives you the number of years it takes to double your money. So if your return averages 5 % it takes 14.4 years to double your money. It seems long to some but given the fact that Social Security will be bankrupt in less than 20 years it is certainly worth taking a shot and getting going.
Folks investing is more practice, it is doing not talking .Investing is setting a plan and working a plan. For most of us it is more about follow through than about brilliant stock picking. Sure a good stock here and there will your boost returns, but the truth is a couple of mediocre funds or an index fund over time with follow through will breed excellent results. It is all about consistently working the plan, adding money time in and time out.
So what do investors have to be thankful for? Well for one Microsoft is finally going to pay out the 3 bucks, Kmart discovered location, no one raised taxes on dividends, short term capital loses and long term capital gains, tankers ,trucks and trains , just google it but sell it before the lock up ends.
James
Ps. Again thank you for all the referrals!
Thursday, November 18, 2004
Rio Bravo..a blue light special and Google
November 17,2004
Hello,
Well it’s not Rio Bravo either, but the market is starting to exude more positives. Compelling valuations that’s what we see and apparently even if some investors are not sold on the value of stock investing; Corporate America has gotten bitten by the merger bug. Dow Jones found value on the internet and Kmart found value in Sears real estate. It is all about location; location, location, location. Speaking of location as you may know I have been cool to this whole “google” thing since its inception. I didn’t like the way the IPO was conducted, I thought the timing of the thing was a day late and a dollar short; I don’t like the capitol structure and I wanted to wait and see for the lock up period to end. Well as you know google doubled in price since the IPO, but recently there has been more criticism of the way the IPO was conducted, including some that suggested that the mishandled road show caused a much lower IPO price leaving a lot of money on the table.
The number of outstanding shares to be freely traded will increase from 22.5 million to a tad fewer than 300 million by February. That is a 10 fold increase! What is a “lock up”? The lock up period is a time period that insiders, original investors, employees and other have to hold stock and are not allowed to trade it freely. Google is not unique in this practice, but the size of the lock up stock compared to the total outstanding stock seems very significant. This is why I remain hands off till I see the lock up end or as they say the “stuff” hits the fan.
Once again inflation has reared it ugly head or has it? Those of you who are regular readers would note that I have constantly swam against the current of the “sky is falling inflation is coming” crowd. Wholesale price increases and consumer price increases have ever so temporary spooked the market again only to be shrugged off one day later. The reason is simple the effects of reflating are not in them selves a trend of inflation. Folks how easily we forget that a little over three years ago we were on a ledge looking straight down at the specter of a deflationary depression. Looking at Japan of the late 1980’s and the Great Depression the FED and the president got together and decided to flood the market with liquidity, with the motto, thanks to P.Diddy “deflate or die”. Recently higher oil prices, which are coming down, a declining dollar and hurricanes displacing the winter food crop, are all contributing to short term price increases. We would need to see several months of data suggesting a consistent uptrend. “Better to devour the data and beware of the dogma”.
James
Hello,
Well it’s not Rio Bravo either, but the market is starting to exude more positives. Compelling valuations that’s what we see and apparently even if some investors are not sold on the value of stock investing; Corporate America has gotten bitten by the merger bug. Dow Jones found value on the internet and Kmart found value in Sears real estate. It is all about location; location, location, location. Speaking of location as you may know I have been cool to this whole “google” thing since its inception. I didn’t like the way the IPO was conducted, I thought the timing of the thing was a day late and a dollar short; I don’t like the capitol structure and I wanted to wait and see for the lock up period to end. Well as you know google doubled in price since the IPO, but recently there has been more criticism of the way the IPO was conducted, including some that suggested that the mishandled road show caused a much lower IPO price leaving a lot of money on the table.
The number of outstanding shares to be freely traded will increase from 22.5 million to a tad fewer than 300 million by February. That is a 10 fold increase! What is a “lock up”? The lock up period is a time period that insiders, original investors, employees and other have to hold stock and are not allowed to trade it freely. Google is not unique in this practice, but the size of the lock up stock compared to the total outstanding stock seems very significant. This is why I remain hands off till I see the lock up end or as they say the “stuff” hits the fan.
Once again inflation has reared it ugly head or has it? Those of you who are regular readers would note that I have constantly swam against the current of the “sky is falling inflation is coming” crowd. Wholesale price increases and consumer price increases have ever so temporary spooked the market again only to be shrugged off one day later. The reason is simple the effects of reflating are not in them selves a trend of inflation. Folks how easily we forget that a little over three years ago we were on a ledge looking straight down at the specter of a deflationary depression. Looking at Japan of the late 1980’s and the Great Depression the FED and the president got together and decided to flood the market with liquidity, with the motto, thanks to P.Diddy “deflate or die”. Recently higher oil prices, which are coming down, a declining dollar and hurricanes displacing the winter food crop, are all contributing to short term price increases. We would need to see several months of data suggesting a consistent uptrend. “Better to devour the data and beware of the dogma”.
James
Thursday, November 11, 2004
sore losers...no flu shot for Santa
November 8, 2004
Hello,
I think the theme of this weeks email is that as investors what we can learn form this year’s Presidential election, is don’t believe your own B.S. Media created truths don’t win elections or make winning portfolios. It is one thing to tell a good story, it is entirely another to believe it yourself. If it makes no sense, it is nonsense. Reality is reality and no amount of agenda driven lying can change it.
So what kinds of stocks look to prosper in the next four years? At the moment many of the same themes look to be intact in the second Bush administration as the first. There are some issues that can be affected by leadership and there are some issues that are consequence of longer term activity. As investors we attempt to separate the two and act accordingly. First there is Security because of continued terrorism, transportation because of a shortage of rolling stock, housing because of demographics and low interest rates .All these sectors point to continuation of the status quo. I would also add that the internet sector which has finally started to do something it had failed to do consistently in the past; make money. And then there is the policy part; more tax cuts, tort reform, interest rate increases, social security private accounts and judgeships. I think it is better to discuss these as they surface.
At times I have found it very frustrating in my efforts to articulate varying levels of risk with different investment selections. The definition of Risk is the issue it seems. It has come to my attention that most novice investors think of risk entirely differently than professionals. To most novice investors risk is simple; if the stock goes up there is no risk and if it goes down there is lots of risk. If they make money there was no risk and if they don’t there was risk. Most novice investors confuse making money in the short term with a level of risk. Folks risk has almost nothing to do with weather you make money or not. Risk is often entirely independent of investment results and entirely independent of short term investment results. Risk is inherent in a particular investment. Risk has many variables. Risk changes with time and circumstances. Risk is often deceptive. Risk is like an Iceberg, the big part is often hidden under the surface. Certain types of investments have more risk than others. Risk is a combination of volatility, consistency and duration, which means most investors, should think of risk as the velocity of which you could lose all or most of your money. A simple rule of thumb is take the time it takes and investment to double and divide that number in half and that’s the time it takes to lose that gain. The shorter the time the greater the risk.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Hello,
I think the theme of this weeks email is that as investors what we can learn form this year’s Presidential election, is don’t believe your own B.S. Media created truths don’t win elections or make winning portfolios. It is one thing to tell a good story, it is entirely another to believe it yourself. If it makes no sense, it is nonsense. Reality is reality and no amount of agenda driven lying can change it.
So what kinds of stocks look to prosper in the next four years? At the moment many of the same themes look to be intact in the second Bush administration as the first. There are some issues that can be affected by leadership and there are some issues that are consequence of longer term activity. As investors we attempt to separate the two and act accordingly. First there is Security because of continued terrorism, transportation because of a shortage of rolling stock, housing because of demographics and low interest rates .All these sectors point to continuation of the status quo. I would also add that the internet sector which has finally started to do something it had failed to do consistently in the past; make money. And then there is the policy part; more tax cuts, tort reform, interest rate increases, social security private accounts and judgeships. I think it is better to discuss these as they surface.
At times I have found it very frustrating in my efforts to articulate varying levels of risk with different investment selections. The definition of Risk is the issue it seems. It has come to my attention that most novice investors think of risk entirely differently than professionals. To most novice investors risk is simple; if the stock goes up there is no risk and if it goes down there is lots of risk. If they make money there was no risk and if they don’t there was risk. Most novice investors confuse making money in the short term with a level of risk. Folks risk has almost nothing to do with weather you make money or not. Risk is often entirely independent of investment results and entirely independent of short term investment results. Risk is inherent in a particular investment. Risk has many variables. Risk changes with time and circumstances. Risk is often deceptive. Risk is like an Iceberg, the big part is often hidden under the surface. Certain types of investments have more risk than others. Risk is a combination of volatility, consistency and duration, which means most investors, should think of risk as the velocity of which you could lose all or most of your money. A simple rule of thumb is take the time it takes and investment to double and divide that number in half and that’s the time it takes to lose that gain. The shorter the time the greater the risk.
James
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Thursday, November 04, 2004
he's back......but america was not "cowed"
November 3,2004
Hello,
They are all back, President Bush is back, Bill Clinton is back, Bin Laden is back. And Hillary is coming back oh my.
Well it is over, yes it really is over including the shouting. Everyone should be proud of them selves, the American people have spoken. Someone asked me if I was happy because my guy won? Remember I am a Yankee fan, so as a Yankee fan I always expect to win. It doesn’t mean I feel entitled to win , “winning” is just a state of mind .You work hard ,do what it takes ,learn from your mistakes and just win baby just win. So all and all I am more or less, “satisfied” with the out come and would say of coarse my guy won I never expected anything else.
So who are the big winners? The American people; for turning out in record numbers to vote and having a good time doing it. George Bush; for getting elected by the largest number of voters in US history. The Republican Party; for picking up even more control of congress. The people of Afghanistan and Iraq ;for getting the full support of the American electorate. The US Military for totally kicking arse. Karl Rove; for making all his detractors look stupid, again. Dick Cheney; for delivering the three electoral votes from Wyoming. Halliburton , because you love to hate them and now you get four more years of fun doing it. Hezbollah; for a successful distribution of Fahrenheit 9/11 thru the Muslim world. Michael Moore; for becoming the most quoted source of international terrorism. John Kerry ;for being the first man to give successful mouth to mouth to a hamster. Theresa Heinz Kerry; for inventing a new cure for arthritis. The Bush twins; for a successful start in the world of public speaking. The “new media” ;for getting so much of this thing right most of the time. Hilary Clinton ;because 2008 is only four years away. Stem cell researchers; for conning California Tax payers out of over 3 billion dollars to do totally bogus research and finally the Boston Red Sox because I simply cant believe they won the World Series and the world didn’t come to an end.
Losing I am afraid is also a state of mind ask any Mets fan. So who are the big losers? Well I bet a lot of pollsters will be searching for new career options. The mainstream media for looking totally clueless, losing all shreds of credibility and by the end got found out for the partisan hacks that they really are. The Democratic Party; which is in a severe state of decline. George Soros; for his failed very expensive bid to buy the US government. Global Elitists of all ilk’s, you know who you are, looking like idiots and we wont forget there follies. John Edwards ;who gave up his Senate seat to become and unemployed trial lawyer ,who often sounds like Forest Gump. Bin laden for backing a loser. Islamofacists; for not realizing President Bush will never campaign again and there for is free to do what ever it takes the next four years. The UN and it policies to promote terrorism, tyranny and global criminality. Hollywood ;for reminding us that beauty is only skin deep and finally Bruce Springsteen ;for reminding us why there are all those jokes about New Jersey.
Finally I just want to say that with the election behind us and a diminished threat of terrorism at home ,a decline in oil prices, a robust economy and a depressed stock market are a recipe for a big upside move in the market in the final days of 2004.
James
Ps thank you again for all the referrals I very much appreciate the new business…….
Hello,
They are all back, President Bush is back, Bill Clinton is back, Bin Laden is back. And Hillary is coming back oh my.
Well it is over, yes it really is over including the shouting. Everyone should be proud of them selves, the American people have spoken. Someone asked me if I was happy because my guy won? Remember I am a Yankee fan, so as a Yankee fan I always expect to win. It doesn’t mean I feel entitled to win , “winning” is just a state of mind .You work hard ,do what it takes ,learn from your mistakes and just win baby just win. So all and all I am more or less, “satisfied” with the out come and would say of coarse my guy won I never expected anything else.
So who are the big winners? The American people; for turning out in record numbers to vote and having a good time doing it. George Bush; for getting elected by the largest number of voters in US history. The Republican Party; for picking up even more control of congress. The people of Afghanistan and Iraq ;for getting the full support of the American electorate. The US Military for totally kicking arse. Karl Rove; for making all his detractors look stupid, again. Dick Cheney; for delivering the three electoral votes from Wyoming. Halliburton , because you love to hate them and now you get four more years of fun doing it. Hezbollah; for a successful distribution of Fahrenheit 9/11 thru the Muslim world. Michael Moore; for becoming the most quoted source of international terrorism. John Kerry ;for being the first man to give successful mouth to mouth to a hamster. Theresa Heinz Kerry; for inventing a new cure for arthritis. The Bush twins; for a successful start in the world of public speaking. The “new media” ;for getting so much of this thing right most of the time. Hilary Clinton ;because 2008 is only four years away. Stem cell researchers; for conning California Tax payers out of over 3 billion dollars to do totally bogus research and finally the Boston Red Sox because I simply cant believe they won the World Series and the world didn’t come to an end.
Losing I am afraid is also a state of mind ask any Mets fan. So who are the big losers? Well I bet a lot of pollsters will be searching for new career options. The mainstream media for looking totally clueless, losing all shreds of credibility and by the end got found out for the partisan hacks that they really are. The Democratic Party; which is in a severe state of decline. George Soros; for his failed very expensive bid to buy the US government. Global Elitists of all ilk’s, you know who you are, looking like idiots and we wont forget there follies. John Edwards ;who gave up his Senate seat to become and unemployed trial lawyer ,who often sounds like Forest Gump. Bin laden for backing a loser. Islamofacists; for not realizing President Bush will never campaign again and there for is free to do what ever it takes the next four years. The UN and it policies to promote terrorism, tyranny and global criminality. Hollywood ;for reminding us that beauty is only skin deep and finally Bruce Springsteen ;for reminding us why there are all those jokes about New Jersey.
Finally I just want to say that with the election behind us and a diminished threat of terrorism at home ,a decline in oil prices, a robust economy and a depressed stock market are a recipe for a big upside move in the market in the final days of 2004.
James
Ps thank you again for all the referrals I very much appreciate the new business…….
Friday, October 29, 2004
lipstick on a pig..I got a plan...Red Sox win...end of the John Peel show
October 28, 2004
Hello,
Did you say thirty thousands of bananas’s, or was it 380 tons of explosives or maybe 3.8 tons well what ever the story is today.
Folks incase you haven’t done the math it would take 100 men with 38 trucks working 12 hours a day two weeks to move 380 tons of explosives ,mind you in the middle of a war . Sounds reasonable to be handling explosives for 12 hours while being shot at doesn’t it? Funny that no one is worried about what happened to the WMD’s. If the terrorist in Iraq had all these weapons why haven’t they used them? Doesn’t this claim also support the President claim that Iraq was a serious and gathering threat? I am simple amazed at the total ridiculousness of this story. It gets even sillier with each passing day. You would think members of the mainstream media would have learned something form the Dan Rather fraud documents scandal. Yet, they continue to harp on something that is blatantly false and logically makes no sense what so ever.
The story originated from the UN director of the IAEA, Mohammed el-Baradei, Hans Blix’s boss. He sent a letter to the New York Times making the accusations in an attempt to cover his own arse. The IAEA has missed many major weapons stock piles including some in North Korea, Iran, Libya, and Iraq. The stock piles at al-Qaqaa were the responsibility of the UN and as usual the UN failed in that responsibility. Mohammed el-Baradei is considered inept at best, fostering global criminality and nuclear proliferation at worst.
This brings me to my next point; the oil for food scandal makes it clear that members of the Security Council were paid off thru the oil for food program by Saddam Hussien to oppose the war. France sold their vote on the Security Council for a mere $1.7 billion. Apparently they have joined forces once again with their allies in the mainstream US press and the Kerry campaign to defeat President Bush. Add George Soros a known commodities and currency trader, a man clearly trying to buy the presidency to the mix and it is no wonder that oil prices have suddenly moved so high so fast. My prediction oil prices will begin to plummet on Election Day.
Why so much about politics because as investors we only know what we have and we don’t know what we don’t have. After the fact anybody can say what we should have done. Investment needs a certain level of certainty and because of the environment this certainty has been missing. On November 2 we are going to move one step closer to that certainty and gain a clearer picture of what steps to take the next couple of years.
Alright finally, congratulations the Red Sox made it look easy; they win it all first time since 1918. Perhaps credit the lunar eclipse with breaking the curse or maybe there never was a curse at all, maybe they just always sucked? Don’t think of it as a good omen for Senator Kerry however, as Boston Red Sox star pitcher Kurt Schilling said it best in an interview with Charley Gibson on Good Morning America urged everyone to go out and vote on November 2 and go out and vote for Bush!
Investors have to be careful out there, it is a dangerous world,
James
Hello,
Did you say thirty thousands of bananas’s, or was it 380 tons of explosives or maybe 3.8 tons well what ever the story is today.
Folks incase you haven’t done the math it would take 100 men with 38 trucks working 12 hours a day two weeks to move 380 tons of explosives ,mind you in the middle of a war . Sounds reasonable to be handling explosives for 12 hours while being shot at doesn’t it? Funny that no one is worried about what happened to the WMD’s. If the terrorist in Iraq had all these weapons why haven’t they used them? Doesn’t this claim also support the President claim that Iraq was a serious and gathering threat? I am simple amazed at the total ridiculousness of this story. It gets even sillier with each passing day. You would think members of the mainstream media would have learned something form the Dan Rather fraud documents scandal. Yet, they continue to harp on something that is blatantly false and logically makes no sense what so ever.
The story originated from the UN director of the IAEA, Mohammed el-Baradei, Hans Blix’s boss. He sent a letter to the New York Times making the accusations in an attempt to cover his own arse. The IAEA has missed many major weapons stock piles including some in North Korea, Iran, Libya, and Iraq. The stock piles at al-Qaqaa were the responsibility of the UN and as usual the UN failed in that responsibility. Mohammed el-Baradei is considered inept at best, fostering global criminality and nuclear proliferation at worst.
This brings me to my next point; the oil for food scandal makes it clear that members of the Security Council were paid off thru the oil for food program by Saddam Hussien to oppose the war. France sold their vote on the Security Council for a mere $1.7 billion. Apparently they have joined forces once again with their allies in the mainstream US press and the Kerry campaign to defeat President Bush. Add George Soros a known commodities and currency trader, a man clearly trying to buy the presidency to the mix and it is no wonder that oil prices have suddenly moved so high so fast. My prediction oil prices will begin to plummet on Election Day.
Why so much about politics because as investors we only know what we have and we don’t know what we don’t have. After the fact anybody can say what we should have done. Investment needs a certain level of certainty and because of the environment this certainty has been missing. On November 2 we are going to move one step closer to that certainty and gain a clearer picture of what steps to take the next couple of years.
Alright finally, congratulations the Red Sox made it look easy; they win it all first time since 1918. Perhaps credit the lunar eclipse with breaking the curse or maybe there never was a curse at all, maybe they just always sucked? Don’t think of it as a good omen for Senator Kerry however, as Boston Red Sox star pitcher Kurt Schilling said it best in an interview with Charley Gibson on Good Morning America urged everyone to go out and vote on November 2 and go out and vote for Bush!
Investors have to be careful out there, it is a dangerous world,
James
Monday, October 25, 2004
No Sleep till Victory!...maybe we all need to get a real job...Godzilla turns 50!
October 21, 2004
Hello,
Alright, alright I know the Red Sox won, remember they still have to win the World Series to break the curse of the bambino, and destroy the world. If the curse holds and the calendar is correct history tells us we have entered the seasonally favorable time of the year for investors. This period runs from the end of October to beginning of April, of coarse if the Red Sox win the World Series all bets are off.
So now we all know that according to Teresa Heinz Kerry that a real job is marrying a very rich man, and giving away money you never earned to a bunch of people how don’t deserve it….but being a school teacher in Texas is not. Apparently Teresa Heinz Kerry is referring to something similar to the world’s oldest profession as her profession.
Folks the Clintons Nationalized the production of flu Vaccine, with out nationalizing the cost of litigation. Without the proper profit margin and with added risk of lawsuits there is no incentive for Vaccine production. Vaccine production in the US dropped from 33 producers to 1 under the Clinton care arrangements.
On an interesting note Godzilla, the over grown Japanese lizard is 50 years old this month. Many investors already have been squished by Godzilla market the last several years. What is the Godzilla market? The Godzilla market is the dot com turns to dot bomb, corporate scandals, terrorism, higher oil prices, increasing interest rates, deflation, natural disasters and political uncertainty, like I said the only thing worse than this would be the Red Sox winning the World Series.
Why does the dollar continue to decline and what does it really mean? It seems the central diatribe of the mainstream media is that our economy is bad, there is too much debt, and Bush is hated. The mainstream media has pronounced the declining dollar to be symptomatic with failure, sounds rather ominous. The reality is far different. The declining dollar is more a symptom of low interest rates. Yes I know interest rates have been boosted by the FED, but they are still relatively low in historical terms. In fact long term rates have declined somewhat this year even with the FED raising rates. Because of the enormous stock market decline during the final year of the Clinton administration, The FED in 2000 was forced to flood the US economy with cheap money in an effort to stem the deflationary spiral that was beginning to take hold. Not wanting to repeat the mistakes of the past, Chairman Greenspan made the wise move to excessive easy credit. Unlike the 1930’s were raising rates and raising taxes started the(deflationary spiral)Great Depression or as Japan did in the late 1980’s also raising taxes and raising interest rates to defend their currency and their budget surplus. These actions pushed Japan over the edge into a deep deflationary spiral which they are still currently looking to escape. So low interest rates, tax cuts and printing money have contributed to a decline in the over valued dollar in an effort to fight off deflation. The decline in the dollar also makes the US manufacturing more competitive and there by threatens to undermine Europe’s exports, which the EU is highly dependent on. The weakness or strength in a currency is seldom a moral judgment it is simply a pricing mechanism of countries competitiveness, demographics, resources, economic cycle and so on.
James
Hello,
Alright, alright I know the Red Sox won, remember they still have to win the World Series to break the curse of the bambino, and destroy the world. If the curse holds and the calendar is correct history tells us we have entered the seasonally favorable time of the year for investors. This period runs from the end of October to beginning of April, of coarse if the Red Sox win the World Series all bets are off.
So now we all know that according to Teresa Heinz Kerry that a real job is marrying a very rich man, and giving away money you never earned to a bunch of people how don’t deserve it….but being a school teacher in Texas is not. Apparently Teresa Heinz Kerry is referring to something similar to the world’s oldest profession as her profession.
Folks the Clintons Nationalized the production of flu Vaccine, with out nationalizing the cost of litigation. Without the proper profit margin and with added risk of lawsuits there is no incentive for Vaccine production. Vaccine production in the US dropped from 33 producers to 1 under the Clinton care arrangements.
On an interesting note Godzilla, the over grown Japanese lizard is 50 years old this month. Many investors already have been squished by Godzilla market the last several years. What is the Godzilla market? The Godzilla market is the dot com turns to dot bomb, corporate scandals, terrorism, higher oil prices, increasing interest rates, deflation, natural disasters and political uncertainty, like I said the only thing worse than this would be the Red Sox winning the World Series.
Why does the dollar continue to decline and what does it really mean? It seems the central diatribe of the mainstream media is that our economy is bad, there is too much debt, and Bush is hated. The mainstream media has pronounced the declining dollar to be symptomatic with failure, sounds rather ominous. The reality is far different. The declining dollar is more a symptom of low interest rates. Yes I know interest rates have been boosted by the FED, but they are still relatively low in historical terms. In fact long term rates have declined somewhat this year even with the FED raising rates. Because of the enormous stock market decline during the final year of the Clinton administration, The FED in 2000 was forced to flood the US economy with cheap money in an effort to stem the deflationary spiral that was beginning to take hold. Not wanting to repeat the mistakes of the past, Chairman Greenspan made the wise move to excessive easy credit. Unlike the 1930’s were raising rates and raising taxes started the(deflationary spiral)Great Depression or as Japan did in the late 1980’s also raising taxes and raising interest rates to defend their currency and their budget surplus. These actions pushed Japan over the edge into a deep deflationary spiral which they are still currently looking to escape. So low interest rates, tax cuts and printing money have contributed to a decline in the over valued dollar in an effort to fight off deflation. The decline in the dollar also makes the US manufacturing more competitive and there by threatens to undermine Europe’s exports, which the EU is highly dependent on. The weakness or strength in a currency is seldom a moral judgment it is simply a pricing mechanism of countries competitiveness, demographics, resources, economic cycle and so on.
James
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
who's your dady?
October 19,2004
Hello,
The market continues to push upward with intermittent periods of sharp selling, giving investors opportunities to get on board. Weather it is higher oil prices, earth quakes or government investigations of the insurance industries every couple of days the market seems to take a hit. When it looks bleakest the market then reverses to the up side. Day by day the economic data taken out of context seems to contradict it self. So for this email I am going to try to put some of the data in perspective.
As I have stated before the mainstream media and much of the business media have very much mischaracterized most of what has been going on in the economy. What I think has been very much misunderstood is the continued move in America to an ownership society. Here are some of the economic basics of our time;
According to the Cato Institute 68.6% of all American households own their own home which is an all time record high and some like John Kerry own five. There are many factors that create this environment among them low interest rates, tax cuts, and demographics. Most economists would agree that this is probably one of the best measures of the vitality of the middle class.
Even with the poor stock market environment since March 2000, the investor class now makes up over 50% of US households. That is up from 32% in 1989 and 19% in 1983.
So you ask what about jobs? According to the payroll Data since President Bush has been in office there is a decline of about 900,000, working for someone else(that’s payroll data) ,but household working survey shows an increase of 1.8 million jobs since January 2001(that’s working for yourself or someone else) . Again I think the wide spread use of technology is fundamentally changing the way we work and live, challenging our ability to measure changes in the economy. After all people like me are not showing up on the payroll survey yet the fact is I am working. The four week moving average for new unemployment claims is 348,500, less that the 25 year moving average of 380,520. Even the decline in labor force participation from 67.2 to 66 % which is almost exclusively do to the sudden lack of 16-19 years olds willing to work. The US will outsource about 3.5 million jobs from 2000 -2015; meanwhile there are currently 5.4 million jobs that have been in sourced.
What about manufacturing jobs? There has been and 11% decrease in manufacturing jobs in the US and world wide from 1995 -2002. China has had a 15% decrease in manufacturing jobs during the same period. This is primarily due too increases in productivity. Of late the US has seen a serious rebound in manufacturing activity and a slight rebound in manufacturing jobs.
Real earnings have continued to increase at 2% per year even during the 2000-2001 recession. Real earnings are higher now than at the height of the “dot.com” craze. This is entirely different than past recessions were real earning declined such as 1980-82, or 1990-91.
Real GDP growth is running about 3.3%, slightly above the 1990’s of 3.26%. The Poverty rate has reached 12.5%, up but below the 1998 rate of 12.7%.the recent raise in Child Poverty (1.6%) has been significantly below the raise in the past recessions of 1980 (5.5%) or 1990(2.7%).1/2 of all Poverty lasts less than 4 months and 80% of people in Poverty are out of Poverty in less than one year. 80.4% of all Americans had health insurance, up from 78.2 in 1996.
James
Hello,
The market continues to push upward with intermittent periods of sharp selling, giving investors opportunities to get on board. Weather it is higher oil prices, earth quakes or government investigations of the insurance industries every couple of days the market seems to take a hit. When it looks bleakest the market then reverses to the up side. Day by day the economic data taken out of context seems to contradict it self. So for this email I am going to try to put some of the data in perspective.
As I have stated before the mainstream media and much of the business media have very much mischaracterized most of what has been going on in the economy. What I think has been very much misunderstood is the continued move in America to an ownership society. Here are some of the economic basics of our time;
According to the Cato Institute 68.6% of all American households own their own home which is an all time record high and some like John Kerry own five. There are many factors that create this environment among them low interest rates, tax cuts, and demographics. Most economists would agree that this is probably one of the best measures of the vitality of the middle class.
Even with the poor stock market environment since March 2000, the investor class now makes up over 50% of US households. That is up from 32% in 1989 and 19% in 1983.
So you ask what about jobs? According to the payroll Data since President Bush has been in office there is a decline of about 900,000, working for someone else(that’s payroll data) ,but household working survey shows an increase of 1.8 million jobs since January 2001(that’s working for yourself or someone else) . Again I think the wide spread use of technology is fundamentally changing the way we work and live, challenging our ability to measure changes in the economy. After all people like me are not showing up on the payroll survey yet the fact is I am working. The four week moving average for new unemployment claims is 348,500, less that the 25 year moving average of 380,520. Even the decline in labor force participation from 67.2 to 66 % which is almost exclusively do to the sudden lack of 16-19 years olds willing to work. The US will outsource about 3.5 million jobs from 2000 -2015; meanwhile there are currently 5.4 million jobs that have been in sourced.
What about manufacturing jobs? There has been and 11% decrease in manufacturing jobs in the US and world wide from 1995 -2002. China has had a 15% decrease in manufacturing jobs during the same period. This is primarily due too increases in productivity. Of late the US has seen a serious rebound in manufacturing activity and a slight rebound in manufacturing jobs.
Real earnings have continued to increase at 2% per year even during the 2000-2001 recession. Real earnings are higher now than at the height of the “dot.com” craze. This is entirely different than past recessions were real earning declined such as 1980-82, or 1990-91.
Real GDP growth is running about 3.3%, slightly above the 1990’s of 3.26%. The Poverty rate has reached 12.5%, up but below the 1998 rate of 12.7%.the recent raise in Child Poverty (1.6%) has been significantly below the raise in the past recessions of 1980 (5.5%) or 1990(2.7%).1/2 of all Poverty lasts less than 4 months and 80% of people in Poverty are out of Poverty in less than one year. 80.4% of all Americans had health insurance, up from 78.2 in 1996.
James
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