Thursday, June 26, 2008

ITs the FED folks ...

reason for the selloff is yesterdays FED-speak and the failure of the FED to follow through and stem the tide of inflation !

a little bit about me................

I am a Investment Advisor with a unique perspective on markets, economics ,politics and media . I have experienced and weathered the 1970’s stagflation, the ’87 crash, 2000 meltdown and worked in ground zero on 9/11. I use everything from very basic number crunching to esoteric wave theory. I use a proprietary matrix that match’s historic trends to current data which attempts to isolate the dominant dynamic in today’s current price movements to maximize investor returns and minimize risk . I manage money for individuals and institutions and offer a wide verity of financial services operating in a traditional stock broker model using internet technologies to off “mass produced customized solutions”.No account is too big or too small. No cookie cutter financial planning ,everyone is treated as a unique individual .I am a free market guy all the way and do view government action as part of the problem not the solution.

I am available as a Keynote speaker for your event, feel free to contact me ...

James J Foytlin
Ridgewood NJ 07450
toll free 1(866)492-3959
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The FED dose it again

So the FED did it again talk the talk on inflation then back down when clear action would send a strong signal . The failure to communicate its intentions clearly has continued to mar this FED and the byproduct being a continued decline in confidence in the FED chair and a continued decline in the confidence of the US economy, the US dollar and the entire leadership of the US government. Perhaps this generation (the 70’s) simply doesn’t have it in them, but the continued lack of leadership is starting to become a real problem. This 1970’s mindset seems so misplaced 2½ decades later but is on its way to becoming a self fulfilling prophesy. While the FED dawdles the two parties are busy embracing the failed policies from this bygone era ensuring that the same failed results. Under these circumstances further deterioration for most equities is a foregone conclusion. Investors will be wise to keep there focus on inflation driven results. Sectors such are energy, precious metals and Agriculture will continue to outperform . With particular focus on domestic natural gas, coal and drillers .Natural gas because its viewed as “cleaner” and we have plenty of it ,coal with its “dirty reputation” because we have even more and at lest it could be exported to China and finally the drillers because weather we spur demand with a new policy of drill drill drill or stick to our old prejudice against drilling a continued premium will be placed on domestic resources and access to those resources.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Brilliant simply brilliant : Drill Drill Drill

Finally a viable alternative to this silly idea that raising taxes is going to lower energy prices some how… Drill Drill Drill will some kind of sensible energy policy that involves making more supply available ,thru drilling and construction of nuclear power plants as well as additional investments in alternative energy and passive conservation push to US toward energy freedom ,create an economic boom and change the security picture of the US over night.? It sure would and it looks like John McCain finally has something to run on. If he is serious this could fundamentally change the global energy picture for generations and would finally rid the US of this irrational fear of energy production and change the balance of power in the energy business for ever. Stay tuned this could be very interesting for investors and fundamentally change the dynamics of the US equity market, the inflation rate, productivity growth ,interest rates and national security. Remember there is NO Energy shortage just the political unwillingness to add to supply.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The cost of money is about to go up in the US

As the FED warns of imminent attempts to put the brakes on inflation, market watchers continue to speculate on the repercussions.
The main question on everyone’s mind is weather the dollar will keep falling or will a slow rise in US interest rates and perhaps a decline in EU rates push the dollar higher? My bet is that the dollar is moving higher in the short run but to what extent that is going to effect energy, commodity, precious metals, and Ag I am unsure. I would look for the G-10 to make some kind of a joint strong dollar pronouncement, given how much the weaker dollar has damaged EU exports.

Monday, June 09, 2008

McCain and Obama using the Carter play book

Ok so you are really surprised the proposed policies from our political leadership dating back to the Carter Era will not cause the same results? With Hillary out and McCain and Obama using the Carter play book the market quickly passed judgment like it or not on the foolish Carter style agenda.

It’s also important to remember that employment is a lagging indicator and unemployment will continue to climb for some time after the end of the current slow down. This factor will be exacerbated by the continued growth in productivity and the continued “under the radar” growth in home based technology businesses and professional consultants from all fields working from home or should I say from a laptop and blackberry. And of course at the low end the latest increase in the minimum wage which dis-employed many teens and students.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Beverley Hillbillies

Seems the continued demand for energy and the restricted supply situation in the US has begun to place a premium on domestic energy sources. Coal has its environmental political issues but natural gas seems to be plentiful with many new domestic discoveries coming on line with drillers on land already authorized to drill. Some experts suggest the as much as 90% of domestic US oil and gas is off limits to drilling dues to government environmental regulations so a premium is now being placed on operating US recourses.

Monday, June 02, 2008

An Isolated tribe is found in Brazil, and isolated worker found in his Pj's working from the kitchen table...

An Isolated tribe is found in Brazil, the space stations toilets finally flush and Susan Sarandon vows to move to Italy Ciao ! Wall Street starts to trade hot air thru Chicago Climate Exchange. Meanwhile the FED ponders its next move with many suggesting interest rates will move up. Inflations proves less than expected by some measures and the economy despite the all the negative news apparently has turned off the TV with GDP figures looking better than expected . The interesting thing is that despite the doom and gloom the unemployment rate has hardly budged and the growth rate in productivity continues to grow at an uncanny rate given the current economic slow down. I would suggest the little reported phenomenon of people thru the use of technology working independently from home in more and more occupations and industries continues to be below the radar for economic data collection.