July 17,2005
Hello,
This week it is all about earnings, hurricanes and takeovers. About 1000 companies report earnings, Hurricane Emily crashes a shore near Cancun and not to be out done investment bankers are capitalizing on the low equity valuations perusing the urge to merge. Going into the week Semi conductors and Bio Techs have been leading the way, but let’s see if this weeks earning announcements move this trend forward or make it yesterday’s news. There seems to be a lot of resilience in this market weather it be an act of international terrorism or a natural disaster.
The big news seems to be that China has begun the long overdue process to turn the Yaun into a fully convertible currency. This initial step of letting the Yaun fluctuate versus a basket of currencies first major effect so far has been to cause a sell down in the US treasury market, perhaps alleviating the flatness in the yield curve. The translation into plain English means long term rates ie…mortgage rates will begin to rise. Will rates raise enough to discourage home buying ,I am not sure .The Magic number with mortgage rates is like the magic number of the price of gas .What price will it take to discourage one type of economic activity and encourage another? What may hurt home buyers, may very positively enhance equity valuations because as the saying goes a flat yield curve leads to a recession. What is a flat yield curve? Again this is far less complicated than it sounds and simply means that short term interest rates are the same or more than long term rates, another words there is no time premium for the lender. The stock market views a flat yield curve very negatively, because it points to a slow down in future economic activity. How flat was the yield curve, well the 3month yield is 3.35% and the 30 years is 4.50%. That’s not exactly flat but for example July of last year the 3 month was 1.35% and the 30 year was 5.20%, now that’s a yield curve. Another issue that has crept up is the specter of inflation. A stronger Chinese currency means higher prices for Chinese goods. Again it is one of those magic number issues, another words how much of and increase in the Yaun would be needed to raise prices noticeably. This sounds like more of the sky is falling argument, in the current economic circumstances runaway inflation has about as much chance of coming back as Jimmy Carter getting elected president in 2008. There are many on Wall Street who continue to harp that inflation is coming, inflation is coming, given that fact that we had a market bubble bust in 2000, followed by the attack of 9/11, the FED and the Treasury used an enormous amount of resources to fight and avoid deflation (like the 1930’s) any inflation would simply be temporary as there is a slight boost to inflation after all calamities have subsided due to the excess liquidity created to fight the calamities.
Again since you asked, the average car payment in the USA is $385.00 per month, if you invested the same amount starting with zero in 30 years at 9% return you would accumulate $417,569 after $108,488 taxes at a 28% rate. (Historically the stock market has returned around 11% per year) .If you were to invest tax free of $4000 per year ($334 per month)in a ROTH or Traditional IRA at 9% for 30 years you would end up with $585,483. A car payment can get you started so call me……
James
1(888)599-1188
Monday, July 25, 2005
Friday, July 22, 2005
Thursday, July 21, 2005
just the news
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- China loosened its fixed-exchange rate against the dollar for the first time in a decade, letting the yuan fluctuate versus a basket of currencies, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site.
One of the sources said that investigators found the TATP in the Leeds apartment rented by Magdy el-Nashar, an Egyptian biochemist detained for questioning Thursday in connection with the London attacks. (CNN)
CAIRO, Egypt - A well-liked Egyptian with an American college degree and no apparent interest in politics has been arrested as part of the investigation into the London bomb blasts. In Pakistan Friday, security forces investigating connections with the suicide bombings detained four suspects, a police office said. (MSNBC)
British-born Haroon Rashid Aswad was seized at a religious school with a suicide bomb belt, explosives and GBP 13,000 in cash. Security sources in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, claim he had up to 20 telephone conversations with London bombers Mohammad Sidique Khan and Shehzad Tanweer. One of these is believed to have been just hours before the blasts. (Matt Drudge)
July 15, 2005 — One of the bombers in last week's attacks made a direct phone call to a suspected recruiter for an extremist group in New York. (ABC NEWS LONDON)
(CNSNews.com) - An American Muslim group under federal investigation is actually the U.S. division of a Pakistan-based faction with ties to Osama bin Laden and the Taliban, according to notes from an official meeting that were posted on an obscure Middle Eastern website and obtained by Cybercast News Service
"I believed very strongly that it was important for the Committee to conclude publicly that many of the statements made by Ambassador Wilson were not only incorrect, but had no basis in fact." (Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts)
"The former Ambassador (Joe Wilson), either by design or through ignorance, gave the American people and, for that matter, the world a version of events that was inaccurate, unsubstantiated, and misleading” (Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts)
Sen. John Kerry, who called for Karl Rove to be fired over allegations that he revealed the identity of CIA employee Valerie Plame, outed a genuine undercover CIA agent just this past April - even after the agency asked that his identity be kept secret. Kerry blew the cover of CIA secret operative Fulton Armstrong during confirmation hearings for U.N. ambassador nominee John Bolton (NEWSMAX)
If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” said General Zhu Chenghu. (FT)
Hedge Funds have pried into nearly every nook of the investing world as they hunt for good returns. Recently, they have increased their focus on a sometimes tricky game: lending money to ailing, cash-strapped companies. (WSJ)
While employment keeps declining at American factories, they are cranking out more products than ever, and they are running closer to capacity than they have in half a decade. (WSJ)
"Contrary to the view out there that American manufacturing is dead or dying, [production] is growing at a pretty good clip," says Joseph Carson, director of global economic research with Alliance Capital Management LP in New York.
Two larger trends are at play in the increases. The first is continued productivity gains in the manufacturing sector, which means factories are producing more products with fewer workers. The other is a growing global economy, which allows U.S. producers to expand production even as upstart factories in places like China and Mexico build up market share. (WSJ)
July 20, 2005 -- Morgan Stanley's board is under attack by a pension fund looking to recover millions the company has paid to departing executives and a $1.58 billion court award the firm lost to mogul Ron Perelman.(NY POST)
July 21, 2005 -- THE Securities & Exchange Commission is investigating whether brokerage firms that did business with Fidelity Investments cheated by placing their own trades ahead of those of the big mutual fund company. On Wall Street this is called "front running." That simply means a brokerage firm, knowing that Fidelity is about to purchase or sell stock in a particular company, will execute its own orders first so as to guarantee itself a profit.(NY POST)
"I don't want to go outside the Green Zone in Baghdad," said the peripatetic stock picker. "Does that make me fearful, or smart? Sometimes fear keeps me from making bad decisions." (Jim Cramer, a former Goldman Sachs trader, hedge fund manager and current host of "Mad Money" on CNBC)
CHICAGO (AP) - The AFL-CIO succumbed to division Sunday, with its largest union deciding to bolt the 50-year-old federation and three others poised to do so in a dispute over how to reverse organized labor's long slide. The four unions, representing nearly one-third of the AFL-CIO's 13 million members, announced Sunday they would boycott the federation's convention that begins Monday. They are part of the Coalition to Win, a group of seven unions vowing to reform the labor movement - outside the AFL-CIO if necessary. ( RON FOURNIER)
One of the sources said that investigators found the TATP in the Leeds apartment rented by Magdy el-Nashar, an Egyptian biochemist detained for questioning Thursday in connection with the London attacks. (CNN)
CAIRO, Egypt - A well-liked Egyptian with an American college degree and no apparent interest in politics has been arrested as part of the investigation into the London bomb blasts. In Pakistan Friday, security forces investigating connections with the suicide bombings detained four suspects, a police office said. (MSNBC)
British-born Haroon Rashid Aswad was seized at a religious school with a suicide bomb belt, explosives and GBP 13,000 in cash. Security sources in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, claim he had up to 20 telephone conversations with London bombers Mohammad Sidique Khan and Shehzad Tanweer. One of these is believed to have been just hours before the blasts. (Matt Drudge)
July 15, 2005 — One of the bombers in last week's attacks made a direct phone call to a suspected recruiter for an extremist group in New York. (ABC NEWS LONDON)
(CNSNews.com) - An American Muslim group under federal investigation is actually the U.S. division of a Pakistan-based faction with ties to Osama bin Laden and the Taliban, according to notes from an official meeting that were posted on an obscure Middle Eastern website and obtained by Cybercast News Service
"I believed very strongly that it was important for the Committee to conclude publicly that many of the statements made by Ambassador Wilson were not only incorrect, but had no basis in fact." (Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts)
"The former Ambassador (Joe Wilson), either by design or through ignorance, gave the American people and, for that matter, the world a version of events that was inaccurate, unsubstantiated, and misleading” (Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts)
Sen. John Kerry, who called for Karl Rove to be fired over allegations that he revealed the identity of CIA employee Valerie Plame, outed a genuine undercover CIA agent just this past April - even after the agency asked that his identity be kept secret. Kerry blew the cover of CIA secret operative Fulton Armstrong during confirmation hearings for U.N. ambassador nominee John Bolton (NEWSMAX)
If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” said General Zhu Chenghu. (FT)
Hedge Funds have pried into nearly every nook of the investing world as they hunt for good returns. Recently, they have increased their focus on a sometimes tricky game: lending money to ailing, cash-strapped companies. (WSJ)
While employment keeps declining at American factories, they are cranking out more products than ever, and they are running closer to capacity than they have in half a decade. (WSJ)
"Contrary to the view out there that American manufacturing is dead or dying, [production] is growing at a pretty good clip," says Joseph Carson, director of global economic research with Alliance Capital Management LP in New York.
Two larger trends are at play in the increases. The first is continued productivity gains in the manufacturing sector, which means factories are producing more products with fewer workers. The other is a growing global economy, which allows U.S. producers to expand production even as upstart factories in places like China and Mexico build up market share. (WSJ)
July 20, 2005 -- Morgan Stanley's board is under attack by a pension fund looking to recover millions the company has paid to departing executives and a $1.58 billion court award the firm lost to mogul Ron Perelman.(NY POST)
July 21, 2005 -- THE Securities & Exchange Commission is investigating whether brokerage firms that did business with Fidelity Investments cheated by placing their own trades ahead of those of the big mutual fund company. On Wall Street this is called "front running." That simply means a brokerage firm, knowing that Fidelity is about to purchase or sell stock in a particular company, will execute its own orders first so as to guarantee itself a profit.(NY POST)
"I don't want to go outside the Green Zone in Baghdad," said the peripatetic stock picker. "Does that make me fearful, or smart? Sometimes fear keeps me from making bad decisions." (Jim Cramer, a former Goldman Sachs trader, hedge fund manager and current host of "Mad Money" on CNBC)
CHICAGO (AP) - The AFL-CIO succumbed to division Sunday, with its largest union deciding to bolt the 50-year-old federation and three others poised to do so in a dispute over how to reverse organized labor's long slide. The four unions, representing nearly one-third of the AFL-CIO's 13 million members, announced Sunday they would boycott the federation's convention that begins Monday. They are part of the Coalition to Win, a group of seven unions vowing to reform the labor movement - outside the AFL-CIO if necessary. ( RON FOURNIER)
Monday, July 18, 2005
Don’t laugh it worked for Martha...........
"i will come and visit you." , (mom )
Hey man, this pic looks great on you!!
Are you sure you'r collecting money for that cause? (I picture you in Mexico enjoying it!) (another happy client)
"Can I donate money to keep you in?" , (a client )
I haven't divulged it , but I am disabled with a neuro condition and a beneficiary of much of the work that MDA does. (a fellow blogger)
"that is a terrible picture of you. You look like you belong behind bars. Just for letting that picture be released, I think I'll let you stay there..." (another happy client )
"Thanks for your interest in The John Batchelor Show. Check out our new website: http://www.blogger.com/www.JohnBatchelorShow.com! All our books, music, and ways to contact John are available there."
Good luck and do not drop the soap!!!! (Freind)
"OK, You've gotton my sympathy. How can I make a donation ? :)" (friend)
How much in pledges are you looking for....when is this? And if so, can I be locked up with your girlfriend's friends? (another friend)
Hey man, this pic looks great on you!!
Are you sure you'r collecting money for that cause? (I picture you in Mexico enjoying it!) (another happy client)
"Can I donate money to keep you in?" , (a client )
I haven't divulged it , but I am disabled with a neuro condition and a beneficiary of much of the work that MDA does. (a fellow blogger)
"that is a terrible picture of you. You look like you belong behind bars. Just for letting that picture be released, I think I'll let you stay there..." (another happy client )
"Thanks for your interest in The John Batchelor Show. Check out our new website: http://www.blogger.com/www.JohnBatchelorShow.com! All our books, music, and ways to contact John are available there."
Good luck and do not drop the soap!!!! (Freind)
"OK, You've gotton my sympathy. How can I make a donation ? :)" (friend)
How much in pledges are you looking for....when is this? And if so, can I be locked up with your girlfriend's friends? (another friend)
I’M GOING BEHIND BARS FOR GOOD!
I’M GOING BEHIND BARS FOR GOOD!A warrant has been issued for my arrest! As one of the area’s “Most Wanted,”I’m going to be “Locked up” to benefit the Muscular Dystrophy Association.With your help they may even let me out on good behavior! Contribute to my bail by donating to MDA via check or credit card. Stop by, call me Toll Free 1- 888-599-1188 or e-mail: jamesfoytlin@optonline.netyour offer to help.MDA©
Dow Jones Utilities Index
Raising utilities stock prices suggest an interest rate top?
*chart from the WSJ
Friday, July 15, 2005
this week in the news
The growth of higher wage jobs is outpacing that of lower-paying jobs for the first time in nearly four years, a study found. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON - As three senators joined President Bush's call for the Iranian regime to release dissident journalist Akbar Ganji from prison, the secretary-general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, yesterday refused to comment when pressed, claiming ignorance on the matter. (NY SUN)
Britain is in shock. Not just from the traumatic and grudging realization last Thursday that the country is at war, but from the discovery that the attack on London was the work of four suicide bombers, all of them young British Muslims. (NY SUN)
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is cutting its estimate of this year's U.S. budget deficit to about $330 billion, a Senate Republican aide said, as the growth in jobs and income boosts tax payments.
BRUSSELS (AFP) -European Commission said it had raided offices of Intel Corp and computer makers and sellers across Europe.
EUROPE wants to begin to regulate the internet for the first time by introducing controversial rules to cover television online. (TIMES ON LINE)
Controversial new European laws which could outlaw thousands of vitamin and mineral supplements were upheld by European Court judgesy. (Evening Standard UK)
(CNSNews.com) - Britain's main Muslim umbrella organization has reacted with shock to the news that police believe last Thursday's terrorist bombings in London were carried out by members of the British Muslim community rather than foreigners.
(CNSNews.com) - Britain's national broadcaster re-edited some of its online coverage of last Thursday's London bombings to remove references to "terrorists" and related words, after earlier appearing to have set aside its policy of not using the terms.
The man accused of killing Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh confessed to a Dutch court that he acted out of his religious beliefs, saying he would do "exactly the same" if he were ever set free. (AFP)
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming countries, said oil demand will accelerate and rise 2.1 percent next year, a sign that prices at $60 a barrel have done little to restrain growth.
PARIS, July 13 - A sudden and mysterious drop in China's oil consumption helped to push down the International Energy Agency's estimate on Wednesday of global demand for this year. After growing 11 percent in 2003 and 15.4 percent last year, China's overall oil use declined 1 percent in the second quarter from the comparable quarter a year earlier, the agency said. (NYT)
"In the past decade, the United Kingdom's undisputed political, economic, and cultural center has also become a major world center of political Islam and anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, and anti-American activism," writes Hebrew University of Jerusalem academic Robert S. Wistrich …(CNS NEWS)
WASHINGTON - President Clinton yesterday added his voice to a growing chorus of Americans of various political persuasions who disagree with a recent Supreme Court ruling that upheld the government's use of eminent domain powers to take private property from one owner and give it to another. (NY SUN)
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose a larger-than- expected 1.7 percent in June, as price cuts at General Motors Corp. fueled spending on automobiles while summer temperatures drove purchases of such goods as barbecue grills, lounge chairs and lightweight clothing. Shoppers also spent more on gasoline.
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in June, reflecting cheaper energy and apparel, a government report showed today.
WASHINGTON - A major source of chemical contamination in the Arctic turns out to be bird droppings. Wind currents and human activities long have been blamed for fouling the pristine Arctic. But a study by a group of Canadian researchers found that the chemical pollution in areas frequented by seabirds can be many times higher than in nearby regions. (AP)
WASHINGTON - As three senators joined President Bush's call for the Iranian regime to release dissident journalist Akbar Ganji from prison, the secretary-general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, yesterday refused to comment when pressed, claiming ignorance on the matter. (NY SUN)
Britain is in shock. Not just from the traumatic and grudging realization last Thursday that the country is at war, but from the discovery that the attack on London was the work of four suicide bombers, all of them young British Muslims. (NY SUN)
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is cutting its estimate of this year's U.S. budget deficit to about $330 billion, a Senate Republican aide said, as the growth in jobs and income boosts tax payments.
BRUSSELS (AFP) -European Commission said it had raided offices of Intel Corp and computer makers and sellers across Europe.
EUROPE wants to begin to regulate the internet for the first time by introducing controversial rules to cover television online. (TIMES ON LINE)
Controversial new European laws which could outlaw thousands of vitamin and mineral supplements were upheld by European Court judgesy. (Evening Standard UK)
(CNSNews.com) - Britain's main Muslim umbrella organization has reacted with shock to the news that police believe last Thursday's terrorist bombings in London were carried out by members of the British Muslim community rather than foreigners.
(CNSNews.com) - Britain's national broadcaster re-edited some of its online coverage of last Thursday's London bombings to remove references to "terrorists" and related words, after earlier appearing to have set aside its policy of not using the terms.
The man accused of killing Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh confessed to a Dutch court that he acted out of his religious beliefs, saying he would do "exactly the same" if he were ever set free. (AFP)
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming countries, said oil demand will accelerate and rise 2.1 percent next year, a sign that prices at $60 a barrel have done little to restrain growth.
PARIS, July 13 - A sudden and mysterious drop in China's oil consumption helped to push down the International Energy Agency's estimate on Wednesday of global demand for this year. After growing 11 percent in 2003 and 15.4 percent last year, China's overall oil use declined 1 percent in the second quarter from the comparable quarter a year earlier, the agency said. (NYT)
"In the past decade, the United Kingdom's undisputed political, economic, and cultural center has also become a major world center of political Islam and anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, and anti-American activism," writes Hebrew University of Jerusalem academic Robert S. Wistrich …(CNS NEWS)
WASHINGTON - President Clinton yesterday added his voice to a growing chorus of Americans of various political persuasions who disagree with a recent Supreme Court ruling that upheld the government's use of eminent domain powers to take private property from one owner and give it to another. (NY SUN)
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose a larger-than- expected 1.7 percent in June, as price cuts at General Motors Corp. fueled spending on automobiles while summer temperatures drove purchases of such goods as barbecue grills, lounge chairs and lightweight clothing. Shoppers also spent more on gasoline.
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in June, reflecting cheaper energy and apparel, a government report showed today.
WASHINGTON - A major source of chemical contamination in the Arctic turns out to be bird droppings. Wind currents and human activities long have been blamed for fouling the pristine Arctic. But a study by a group of Canadian researchers found that the chemical pollution in areas frequented by seabirds can be many times higher than in nearby regions. (AP)
Ganji must be Free
July 12, 2005
Hello,
I just love a summer rally, yes that’s right the market continues to rally and you herd it here first not every stock not everyday and sure the volume is a bit weak but none the less the summer rally is in full bloom. NASDQ looks to have pushed through some very significant resistance around the 2100 level. Again I will repeat the market stages a summer rally, followed by a September through 3rd week of October sell off .Then after about October 20th give or take the real decade rally starts, similar to the fall off 1995 thru mid 1996. The semiconductors are beginning to move upward. They are often one of first sectors to rally signifying the beginning of a new bull market. Mind you it is important to continue to look for confirmation, if the Semi’s fail all bets are off. I know you have herd it all be for, so let the market show you. Scale in making the decision to add more to equities with each passing day buying on weakness or adding to strong positions.
So how does it work, the government lowered tax rates and tax revenues increased? Think of it like running an airline and you want to fill all your planes and eliminate all the empty seats. You simply cut fares and more people fly .Now that wasn’t so complicated was it. Gee you mean people are smart enough to take advantage of sales and discounts, are you? You mean people will buy more when they get a discount? Perhaps you have even made a purchase decision based on the opportunity to take advantage of a sale, I certainly have? I know, never; you always pay more just to prove you’re paying your way …yea right. Everybody loves a bargain, especially business looking to make investments in equipment and expansion. Still not sure ask GM about the Employee discount for everyone program. Taxes are a cost we all share and if taxes are decreased costs decline: more money for you, more fore me to buy, hire, build, expand and advertise; It is really that simple.
Get Me Out Of Jail,fund raiser for MDA
Yes I am going behind bars .I am going to be locked up to benefit Muscular Dystrophy Association .With your help by contributing to my bail we can make a difference! Contribute today by donating to MDA via check, or credit card or cash! No donation is to small! Stop by and see me, call 1(888) 599-1188 or email jamesfoytlin@optonline.net, or I can pick up a check at your home or office.Thank you,James Foytlin
Hello,
I just love a summer rally, yes that’s right the market continues to rally and you herd it here first not every stock not everyday and sure the volume is a bit weak but none the less the summer rally is in full bloom. NASDQ looks to have pushed through some very significant resistance around the 2100 level. Again I will repeat the market stages a summer rally, followed by a September through 3rd week of October sell off .Then after about October 20th give or take the real decade rally starts, similar to the fall off 1995 thru mid 1996. The semiconductors are beginning to move upward. They are often one of first sectors to rally signifying the beginning of a new bull market. Mind you it is important to continue to look for confirmation, if the Semi’s fail all bets are off. I know you have herd it all be for, so let the market show you. Scale in making the decision to add more to equities with each passing day buying on weakness or adding to strong positions.
So how does it work, the government lowered tax rates and tax revenues increased? Think of it like running an airline and you want to fill all your planes and eliminate all the empty seats. You simply cut fares and more people fly .Now that wasn’t so complicated was it. Gee you mean people are smart enough to take advantage of sales and discounts, are you? You mean people will buy more when they get a discount? Perhaps you have even made a purchase decision based on the opportunity to take advantage of a sale, I certainly have? I know, never; you always pay more just to prove you’re paying your way …yea right. Everybody loves a bargain, especially business looking to make investments in equipment and expansion. Still not sure ask GM about the Employee discount for everyone program. Taxes are a cost we all share and if taxes are decreased costs decline: more money for you, more fore me to buy, hire, build, expand and advertise; It is really that simple.
Get Me Out Of Jail,fund raiser for MDA
Yes I am going behind bars .I am going to be locked up to benefit Muscular Dystrophy Association .With your help by contributing to my bail we can make a difference! Contribute today by donating to MDA via check, or credit card or cash! No donation is to small! Stop by and see me, call 1(888) 599-1188 or email jamesfoytlin@optonline.net, or I can pick up a check at your home or office.Thank you,James Foytlin
Monday, July 11, 2005
Get Me Out Of Jail,fund raiser for MDA
Yes I am going behind bars .I am going to be locked up to benefit Muscular Dystrophy Association .With your help by contributing to my bail we can make a difference! Contribute today by donating to MDA via check, or credit card or cash! Stop by and see me, call 1(888) 599-1188 or email jamesfoytlin@optonline.net, or I can pick up a check at your home.
Thank you,
James Foytlin
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450
Thank you,
James Foytlin
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450
this week in the news
Iran's president-elect has proclaimed an Islamic revolution of global proportions. Mahmood Ahmadinejad said his election coincided with what he termed a new Islamic revolution. "The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world," Ahmadinejad said. "In one night, the martyrs strode down a path of 100 years." (World Tribune)
A former American hostage in Tehran who claims Iranian President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of his kidnappers, says the country's new leader threatened to kidnap his handicapped son and cut off his fingers and toes. David Roeder, 66, told the German magazine Der Spiegel Ahmadinejad was present for at least a third of the interrogations during the time he was held, November 1979 to January 1981 "You don't forget someone like that," said the former assistant Air Force attache. (WorldNet Daily.com)
European diplomats are preparing for a breakdown of their negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme in a sign of mounting pessimism following the election last week of conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad. Although Britain, France and Germany still intend to keep their promise to put forward new compromise proposals to Iran by the beginning of August, some of the countries' diplomats now have little expectation that any deal will be accepted by Tehran. (FT)
BRUSSELS -- A lunch meeting between a leading parliamentarian in Belgium and counterparts from Iran has been cancelled because the beer-loving Belgian could not stomach a ban on alcohol. "Even for the tolerant Herman De Croo, that was a bridge too far," De Croo, a Dutch-speaking Liberal, told De Standaard daily on Thursday. (Reuters)
June 30, 2005 -- Jack Resnick & Sons this week became the latest sophisticated city real estate family to cash out some of its holdings. The family firm quietly hired investment orchestrator Doug Harmon of Eastdil to market The Gershwin, a 1998 rental tower at 250 W. 50th named after the composer. The 41-story building, on the southeast corner of Eighth Avenue across from the Gershwin Theatre, has already attracted a full range of bidders. It could break records when it trades close to the $400 million mark. (NY POST)
June 30, 2005 -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Piper Jaffray Cos. and 17 other firms will pay a combined $1.65 million to the NASD for late and improper reporting of municipal bond trades — a record fine by the regulator for such lapses. (NY POST)
June 30, 2005 -- Google and Yahoo! moved yesterday to position their companies to capture a larger piece of fast-growing local online advertising revenues. (NY POST)
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's administration will report this week that surging tax revenue is shrinking this year's budget deficit from the record 2004 level, possibly by as much as $90 billion, giving him a shot at fulfilling his deficit reduction promise three years early.
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Blackstone Group LP, the world's two biggest buyout firms, are making 2005 an unprecedented year for leveraged buyouts, generating more than $4 billion of fees for investment bankers.
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- VNU NV, the Dutch owner of market researcher ACNielsen, agreed to buy IMS Health Inc. for $6.3 billion to become the world's biggest provider of health care market data.
A brutal, oppressive dictator, guilty of personally murdering and condoning murder and torture, grotesque violence against women, execution of political opponents, a war criminal who used chemical weapons against another nation and, of course, as we know, against his own people, the Kurds. He has diverted funds from the Oil-for-Food program, intended by the international community to go to his own people. He has supported and harbored terrorist groups, particularly radical Palestinian groups such as Abu Nidal, and he has given money to families of suicide murderers in Israel. (Senator John Kerry. In the same speech, Kerry faulted Bush for waiting so long to deal with the menace of Saddam Hussein)
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. factory orders increased in May by the most in a year and sales of business equipment increased, a sign manufacturing will provide a bigger boost to the economy in the second half than in the first.
July 6, 2005 -- American International Group Inc., the insurer sued for improper accounting, named Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as a special adviser to its board. (NY POST)
Marina Bai has sued the U.S. space agency, claiming the Deep Impact probe that punched a crater into the comet Tempel 1 late Sunday "ruins the natural balance of forces in the universe," the newspaper Izvestia reported Tuesday. A Moscow court has postponed hearings on the case until late July, the paper said. (AP)
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Inmates from the US-led war on terror held at the prison camp at the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba are well treated, play outdoor sports, and have access to a broad Muslim-approved menu, a US senator who traveled to the site said.
(CNSNews.com) - Islamic schools, called "madrassahs," operate around the world, teaching children reading, writing, religion and, in some cases, how to participate in terrorist attacks.
A former American hostage in Tehran who claims Iranian President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of his kidnappers, says the country's new leader threatened to kidnap his handicapped son and cut off his fingers and toes. David Roeder, 66, told the German magazine Der Spiegel Ahmadinejad was present for at least a third of the interrogations during the time he was held, November 1979 to January 1981 "You don't forget someone like that," said the former assistant Air Force attache. (WorldNet Daily.com)
European diplomats are preparing for a breakdown of their negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme in a sign of mounting pessimism following the election last week of conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad. Although Britain, France and Germany still intend to keep their promise to put forward new compromise proposals to Iran by the beginning of August, some of the countries' diplomats now have little expectation that any deal will be accepted by Tehran. (FT)
BRUSSELS -- A lunch meeting between a leading parliamentarian in Belgium and counterparts from Iran has been cancelled because the beer-loving Belgian could not stomach a ban on alcohol. "Even for the tolerant Herman De Croo, that was a bridge too far," De Croo, a Dutch-speaking Liberal, told De Standaard daily on Thursday. (Reuters)
June 30, 2005 -- Jack Resnick & Sons this week became the latest sophisticated city real estate family to cash out some of its holdings. The family firm quietly hired investment orchestrator Doug Harmon of Eastdil to market The Gershwin, a 1998 rental tower at 250 W. 50th named after the composer. The 41-story building, on the southeast corner of Eighth Avenue across from the Gershwin Theatre, has already attracted a full range of bidders. It could break records when it trades close to the $400 million mark. (NY POST)
June 30, 2005 -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Piper Jaffray Cos. and 17 other firms will pay a combined $1.65 million to the NASD for late and improper reporting of municipal bond trades — a record fine by the regulator for such lapses. (NY POST)
June 30, 2005 -- Google and Yahoo! moved yesterday to position their companies to capture a larger piece of fast-growing local online advertising revenues. (NY POST)
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's administration will report this week that surging tax revenue is shrinking this year's budget deficit from the record 2004 level, possibly by as much as $90 billion, giving him a shot at fulfilling his deficit reduction promise three years early.
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Blackstone Group LP, the world's two biggest buyout firms, are making 2005 an unprecedented year for leveraged buyouts, generating more than $4 billion of fees for investment bankers.
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- VNU NV, the Dutch owner of market researcher ACNielsen, agreed to buy IMS Health Inc. for $6.3 billion to become the world's biggest provider of health care market data.
A brutal, oppressive dictator, guilty of personally murdering and condoning murder and torture, grotesque violence against women, execution of political opponents, a war criminal who used chemical weapons against another nation and, of course, as we know, against his own people, the Kurds. He has diverted funds from the Oil-for-Food program, intended by the international community to go to his own people. He has supported and harbored terrorist groups, particularly radical Palestinian groups such as Abu Nidal, and he has given money to families of suicide murderers in Israel. (Senator John Kerry. In the same speech, Kerry faulted Bush for waiting so long to deal with the menace of Saddam Hussein)
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. factory orders increased in May by the most in a year and sales of business equipment increased, a sign manufacturing will provide a bigger boost to the economy in the second half than in the first.
July 6, 2005 -- American International Group Inc., the insurer sued for improper accounting, named Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as a special adviser to its board. (NY POST)
Marina Bai has sued the U.S. space agency, claiming the Deep Impact probe that punched a crater into the comet Tempel 1 late Sunday "ruins the natural balance of forces in the universe," the newspaper Izvestia reported Tuesday. A Moscow court has postponed hearings on the case until late July, the paper said. (AP)
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Inmates from the US-led war on terror held at the prison camp at the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba are well treated, play outdoor sports, and have access to a broad Muslim-approved menu, a US senator who traveled to the site said.
(CNSNews.com) - Islamic schools, called "madrassahs," operate around the world, teaching children reading, writing, religion and, in some cases, how to participate in terrorist attacks.
cant make a silk purse from a sows ear?
July 5th 2004
Hello,
First my sympathy and hope goes out to all Londoners. Interesting choice of a terror target, Londoners seem to have accumulated a lot of fortitude after years of fearing IRA attacks .I am not sure this Terrorist Attack in will have the negative impact that the terrorist would hope for. At this juncture it does not appear to be a precursor of a huge sell off ,particularly given that oil prices have declined at lest early rather significantly. The US markets seem to have factored in terrorism as a part of life like hurricanes. It remains to be seen if Europe is of the same mind set.
I was in the middle of writing this……..Yes it is hurricane season and with the storms comes the seasonal increase in the price of fuel. No mystery simply the geographic location of about 38% of refining and oil and natural gas drilling rigs for the US. Many oil stocks are trading significantly below their highs of earlier this year when oil prices were much lower. Oil stocks may not make new highs but there looks to be some room for an upward price move, barring a major geopolitical setback. I have said this before increasing fuel prices seem to be factored into the market. So far increasing fuel prices have acted to keep economic growth moderate allowing to FED to continue to raise rates incrementally. A huge jump in prices would cause an oil shock, but as I have said before what would constitute a huge spike I am not sure. My best guess would be in the $90 a barrel range.
It is also the summer slow down which means in the summer the economy slows down. The media every year will fill the airwaves with dire prediction, that the end is near and the world ended yesterday. If it sounds familiar it is because it is the story gets reused every year while the press is on summer vacation.
So now a bit of history from 1924-1929 the DOW made a parabolic move of over 300% going from 100 to 400 .The Crash in 1929 brought the DOW back down to 50 ,a drop of 88%. After bottoming in the middle of 1932, the DOW then rose 140% from 50 to 120 and settled into a trading range from about 80-120 till the middle of 1935 then breaking out 67% to 200 by 1937. Now let’s look at the NASDQ. The current NASDQ made the parabolic move from 1996 to 2000, rising over 400% from 1000 to 5100. Then the crash came and knocked the NASDQ from 5100 to 1100 by 2002, losing 78% of its value. In 2002 thru 2003 the NASDQ rallied 95% to 2100, and then traded sideways till the present from 1750 to 2190 till the present. Hummmmm….yes we could still make a new low … but to date this decade has underperformed the 1930’s, and folks this is not the great depression.
Be safe
James
Trading
Portfolio Management
Tax Free Bonds
Retirement Planning
Small Business Retirement Planning
Charitable Planning
Hello,
First my sympathy and hope goes out to all Londoners. Interesting choice of a terror target, Londoners seem to have accumulated a lot of fortitude after years of fearing IRA attacks .I am not sure this Terrorist Attack in will have the negative impact that the terrorist would hope for. At this juncture it does not appear to be a precursor of a huge sell off ,particularly given that oil prices have declined at lest early rather significantly. The US markets seem to have factored in terrorism as a part of life like hurricanes. It remains to be seen if Europe is of the same mind set.
I was in the middle of writing this……..Yes it is hurricane season and with the storms comes the seasonal increase in the price of fuel. No mystery simply the geographic location of about 38% of refining and oil and natural gas drilling rigs for the US. Many oil stocks are trading significantly below their highs of earlier this year when oil prices were much lower. Oil stocks may not make new highs but there looks to be some room for an upward price move, barring a major geopolitical setback. I have said this before increasing fuel prices seem to be factored into the market. So far increasing fuel prices have acted to keep economic growth moderate allowing to FED to continue to raise rates incrementally. A huge jump in prices would cause an oil shock, but as I have said before what would constitute a huge spike I am not sure. My best guess would be in the $90 a barrel range.
It is also the summer slow down which means in the summer the economy slows down. The media every year will fill the airwaves with dire prediction, that the end is near and the world ended yesterday. If it sounds familiar it is because it is the story gets reused every year while the press is on summer vacation.
So now a bit of history from 1924-1929 the DOW made a parabolic move of over 300% going from 100 to 400 .The Crash in 1929 brought the DOW back down to 50 ,a drop of 88%. After bottoming in the middle of 1932, the DOW then rose 140% from 50 to 120 and settled into a trading range from about 80-120 till the middle of 1935 then breaking out 67% to 200 by 1937. Now let’s look at the NASDQ. The current NASDQ made the parabolic move from 1996 to 2000, rising over 400% from 1000 to 5100. Then the crash came and knocked the NASDQ from 5100 to 1100 by 2002, losing 78% of its value. In 2002 thru 2003 the NASDQ rallied 95% to 2100, and then traded sideways till the present from 1750 to 2190 till the present. Hummmmm….yes we could still make a new low … but to date this decade has underperformed the 1930’s, and folks this is not the great depression.
Be safe
James
Trading
Portfolio Management
Tax Free Bonds
Retirement Planning
Small Business Retirement Planning
Charitable Planning
Thursday, June 30, 2005
in the news this week
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Congress Thursday that a big increase in tariffs on Chinese imports would "materially lower" U.S. living standards and urged lawmakers instead to let financial markets resolve trade imbalances with that country. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON (AP) - A divided Supreme Court ruled Thursday that local governments may seize people's homes and businesses against their will for private development in a decision anxiously awaited in communities where economic growth often is at war with individual property rights.
The high court's ruling on eminent domain "now allows government to be in cahoots with business to steal property from private owners to give essentially to the highest bidders," said Gordon, the communications director for the Libertarian Party of Connecticut. "It's crossing a line that I hoped we never were going to cross," he told Cybercast News Service.
On Monday June 27, Logan Darrow Clements, faxed a request to Chip Meany the code enforcement officer of the Towne of Weare, New Hampshire seeking to start the application process to build a hotel on 34 Cilley Hill Road. This is the present location of Mr. Souter's home. Clements, CEO of Freestar Media, LLC, points out that the City of Weare will certainly gain greater tax revenue and economic benefits with a hotel on 34 Cilley Hill Road than allowing Mr. Souter to own the land. ( Freestar Media)
NORFOLK, Va. -- Two North Carolina counties have stopped turning over shelter animals to People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals.
Officials said they were surprised to learn the group euthanized cats and dogs instead of trying to find them homes. (AP)
The move by Judge Elizabeth Maas brings to $1.57 billion the amount that Morgan Stanley must pay Perelman, who claimed the firm defrauded him in the 1998 sale of Coleman Co. to Sunbeam Corp. Morgan Stanley must post a $1.8 billion bond before any appeal, the judge said. …Jurors in West Palm Beach, Fla., found May 18 that Morgan Stanley, a Sunbeam adviser, should be punished for misrepresenting its client's financial health and for mishandling e-mails. (NY POST)
Federal prosecutors are investigating one of the nation's most aggressive class-action law firms, Milberg Weiss Bershad & Schulman, for alleged fraud, conspiracy and kickbacks in scores of securities lawsuits, and could seek criminal charges against the firm itself and its principals. (WSJ)
Mr. Hevesi isn't the only one whose campaign has received contributions from Milberg Weiss. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's gubernatorial campaign has already received $15,000 from the firm, and another $35,000 from partner Melvyn Weiss as an individual, according to state campaign-finance records and Cynthia Darrison, managing director of Mr. Spitzer's campaign. That's on top of at least $3,000 the firm contributed to Mr. Spitzer's 2002 campaign for attorney general. (NY SUN)
Iran's new hardline president-elect, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, yesterday threw down a challenge to western leaders by vowing to resist international pressure to abandon the country's nuclear programme and branding Israel the source of instability in the Middle East. (The Guardian, UK)
Watching coverage of Iran's presidential election on television dredged up 25-year-old memories that prompted four of the former hostages to exchange e-mails. And those four realized they shared the same conclusion — the firm belief that President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been one of their Iranian captors(1979 Hostage Crisis).(FOX NEWS)
China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. (Washington Times)
On Fox News, Mr Rumsfeld said: “We're not going to win the insurgency. The Iraqi people are going to win against the insurgency. That insurgency could go on for any number of years. Insurgencies tend to go on five, six, eight, 10, 12 years.” (FT)
Public attitudes toward the press, which have been on a downward track for years, have become more negative in several key areas. Growing numbers of people question the news media's patriotism and fairness. Perceptions of political bias also have risen over the past two years. (PEW Research Center)
About 48 percent of Italians miss their lira and blame the common currency for pushing up prices, according to a June 11 survey by consumer group Telefono Blu. Politicians are attracting tens of thousands of supporters to rallies seeking the 500,000 signatures needed to force a referendum on scrapping the euro. (Bloomberg)
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate from January through March, matching the pace in the previous three months and suggesting Federal Reserve policy makers will keep raising interest rates.
During the first four months of 2005, investors accounted for nearly one in 10 mortgages used to buy homes in the U.S., according to a new analysis by LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. that tracks 46 million mortgages monthly and provides information to lenders and other industry participants. The investor share for the period, 9.86%, compares with 8.67% in 2004 and less than 6% in 2001. (WSJ)
POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. -- A New York state lawmaker says he's embarrassed, after he mistakenly sent out an e-mail message that referred to his constituents as "idiots." (wftv.com)
WASHINGTON (AP) - A divided Supreme Court ruled Thursday that local governments may seize people's homes and businesses against their will for private development in a decision anxiously awaited in communities where economic growth often is at war with individual property rights.
The high court's ruling on eminent domain "now allows government to be in cahoots with business to steal property from private owners to give essentially to the highest bidders," said Gordon, the communications director for the Libertarian Party of Connecticut. "It's crossing a line that I hoped we never were going to cross," he told Cybercast News Service.
On Monday June 27, Logan Darrow Clements, faxed a request to Chip Meany the code enforcement officer of the Towne of Weare, New Hampshire seeking to start the application process to build a hotel on 34 Cilley Hill Road. This is the present location of Mr. Souter's home. Clements, CEO of Freestar Media, LLC, points out that the City of Weare will certainly gain greater tax revenue and economic benefits with a hotel on 34 Cilley Hill Road than allowing Mr. Souter to own the land. ( Freestar Media)
NORFOLK, Va. -- Two North Carolina counties have stopped turning over shelter animals to People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals.
Officials said they were surprised to learn the group euthanized cats and dogs instead of trying to find them homes. (AP)
The move by Judge Elizabeth Maas brings to $1.57 billion the amount that Morgan Stanley must pay Perelman, who claimed the firm defrauded him in the 1998 sale of Coleman Co. to Sunbeam Corp. Morgan Stanley must post a $1.8 billion bond before any appeal, the judge said. …Jurors in West Palm Beach, Fla., found May 18 that Morgan Stanley, a Sunbeam adviser, should be punished for misrepresenting its client's financial health and for mishandling e-mails. (NY POST)
Federal prosecutors are investigating one of the nation's most aggressive class-action law firms, Milberg Weiss Bershad & Schulman, for alleged fraud, conspiracy and kickbacks in scores of securities lawsuits, and could seek criminal charges against the firm itself and its principals. (WSJ)
Mr. Hevesi isn't the only one whose campaign has received contributions from Milberg Weiss. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's gubernatorial campaign has already received $15,000 from the firm, and another $35,000 from partner Melvyn Weiss as an individual, according to state campaign-finance records and Cynthia Darrison, managing director of Mr. Spitzer's campaign. That's on top of at least $3,000 the firm contributed to Mr. Spitzer's 2002 campaign for attorney general. (NY SUN)
Iran's new hardline president-elect, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, yesterday threw down a challenge to western leaders by vowing to resist international pressure to abandon the country's nuclear programme and branding Israel the source of instability in the Middle East. (The Guardian, UK)
Watching coverage of Iran's presidential election on television dredged up 25-year-old memories that prompted four of the former hostages to exchange e-mails. And those four realized they shared the same conclusion — the firm belief that President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been one of their Iranian captors(1979 Hostage Crisis).(FOX NEWS)
China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. (Washington Times)
On Fox News, Mr Rumsfeld said: “We're not going to win the insurgency. The Iraqi people are going to win against the insurgency. That insurgency could go on for any number of years. Insurgencies tend to go on five, six, eight, 10, 12 years.” (FT)
Public attitudes toward the press, which have been on a downward track for years, have become more negative in several key areas. Growing numbers of people question the news media's patriotism and fairness. Perceptions of political bias also have risen over the past two years. (PEW Research Center)
About 48 percent of Italians miss their lira and blame the common currency for pushing up prices, according to a June 11 survey by consumer group Telefono Blu. Politicians are attracting tens of thousands of supporters to rallies seeking the 500,000 signatures needed to force a referendum on scrapping the euro. (Bloomberg)
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate from January through March, matching the pace in the previous three months and suggesting Federal Reserve policy makers will keep raising interest rates.
During the first four months of 2005, investors accounted for nearly one in 10 mortgages used to buy homes in the U.S., according to a new analysis by LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. that tracks 46 million mortgages monthly and provides information to lenders and other industry participants. The investor share for the period, 9.86%, compares with 8.67% in 2004 and less than 6% in 2001. (WSJ)
POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. -- A New York state lawmaker says he's embarrassed, after he mistakenly sent out an e-mail message that referred to his constituents as "idiots." (wftv.com)
He is back!
June 24,2005
Hello,
The Recent sell off looks less about oil prices than and more about the Supreme Court attempting to usurp your property rights. Remember property rights are fundamental to the establishment of all other rights. The greater a society goes about protecting private property rights the more successful and prosperous a society is. News of the Supremes decision to allow government to size your property sent the market reeling. Check the time line on the ticker if you don’t believe me; as soon as the court ruling came out the market tanked and besides oil stocks did not have a particularly good day at all. Since the court left it up to local authorities many states have already passed resolutions forcing the adherence to the strictest definition of property condemnation. Thus we seem back on track with our summer rally by the following Tuesday.
It has been said that there is a sucker born every minute, well I am not sure it is every minute but it certainly at lest once or twice a year. Once again with the help of the mainstream media Warren Buffet the Oracle of Omaha, the Sage of long term value investing is promoting his latest dallies into the stock market. In the past these messages have signaled the tops of markets rather than a buying opportunity. If you don’t believe me ask anyone who bought silver when, the oracle was purported to be buying it. Remember he like everyone else is in the business to make money, not give you free investment advice.
I continue to believe that the higher oil prices have slightly depressed economic activity .Unless they go to some extreme new highs the tremendous productivity growth of the last 4 years more than offsets the “inflationary pressures” and increased direct real costs to consumers. Higher oil prices have indirectly kept interest rates low which is significantly more positive than higher oil prices are a negative in to day’s economy. In the long run higher oil prices may force even greater efficiencies increasing productivity even more. What is too high of an oil price? I am not sure but I am certain it is significantly higher than the current price, my bet somewhere higher than the $90 a barrel seen in 1980.
James
Hello,
The Recent sell off looks less about oil prices than and more about the Supreme Court attempting to usurp your property rights. Remember property rights are fundamental to the establishment of all other rights. The greater a society goes about protecting private property rights the more successful and prosperous a society is. News of the Supremes decision to allow government to size your property sent the market reeling. Check the time line on the ticker if you don’t believe me; as soon as the court ruling came out the market tanked and besides oil stocks did not have a particularly good day at all. Since the court left it up to local authorities many states have already passed resolutions forcing the adherence to the strictest definition of property condemnation. Thus we seem back on track with our summer rally by the following Tuesday.
It has been said that there is a sucker born every minute, well I am not sure it is every minute but it certainly at lest once or twice a year. Once again with the help of the mainstream media Warren Buffet the Oracle of Omaha, the Sage of long term value investing is promoting his latest dallies into the stock market. In the past these messages have signaled the tops of markets rather than a buying opportunity. If you don’t believe me ask anyone who bought silver when, the oracle was purported to be buying it. Remember he like everyone else is in the business to make money, not give you free investment advice.
I continue to believe that the higher oil prices have slightly depressed economic activity .Unless they go to some extreme new highs the tremendous productivity growth of the last 4 years more than offsets the “inflationary pressures” and increased direct real costs to consumers. Higher oil prices have indirectly kept interest rates low which is significantly more positive than higher oil prices are a negative in to day’s economy. In the long run higher oil prices may force even greater efficiencies increasing productivity even more. What is too high of an oil price? I am not sure but I am certain it is significantly higher than the current price, my bet somewhere higher than the $90 a barrel seen in 1980.
James
Friday, June 24, 2005
the court ruling
Yesterdays sell off looks less about oil prices than and more about the Supreme Court attempting to usurp your property rights. Remember property rights are fundamental to the establishment of all other rights. The greater a society goes about protecting private property rights the more successful and prosperous a society is. News of the Supremes decision to allow government to size your property sent the market reeling. Check the time line on the ticker if you don’t believe me; as soon as the court ruling came out the market tanked and besides oil stocks did not have a particularly good day at all.
Thursday, June 23, 2005
in the news
“Mrs. Clinton told me she would consider suing him for outright libel," the top Hillary source explains. "This is the right wing attack machine on crack!" (Matt Drudge)
on the basis of a new study, a team of political scientists is arguing that people's gut-level reaction to issues like the death penalty, taxes and abortion is strongly influenced by genetic inheritance. The new research builds on a series of studies that indicate that people's general approach to social issues - more conservative or more progressive - is influenced by genes. (NY TIMES)
"Please remember, absolutely no ranting and raving about Bush or Blair and the Iraq war, this is not why you have been invited to appear," Geldoff said to the manager of a top recording artist, who asked not to be identified. "We want to bring Mr. Bush in, not run him away."(LIVE 8 founder Bob Geldof)
Thursday, former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson (In 1990, Joseph Wilson became the last American diplomat to meet with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.) admitted that "we all believed" Saddam had WMD. "I believe the threat to the United States posed by Saddam's weapons of mass destruction -- which we all believed he had -- could have been dealt with using something less violent than the invasion, conquest and occupation of Iraq," Wilson said in a response to a question from Cybercast News Service following a Democrat-sponsored hearing on the matter.
Moscow (CNSNews.com) - Tensions are running high in Kyrgyzstan ahead of the July 10 presidential election, with recent riots in the capital, Bishkek, showing the fragility of the democratic process in the Central Asian nation.
Today, Iran is ruled by men who suppress liberty at home and spread terror across the world," he said in a written statement for the press. "Power is in the hands of an unelected few who have retained power through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy." (President Bush NY SUN)
WASHINGTON - The choice for Iranians tomorrow in the presidential runoff is between "bad and worse," according to a leader of the July 9, 1999, Tehran University uprisings, Ahmad Batebi. In a phone interview yesterday with The New York Sun, Mr. Batebi said, "The candidates were never elected by the people, the selection of the candidates are from the supreme leader. The people of Iran had no power in choosing any of them." (NY SUN)
"Batman Begins" debuted as the top movie with $46.9 million, while overall movie revenues skidded for the 17th-straight weekend, tying a slide in 1985 that had been the longest box-office decline since analysts began keeping detailed records on movie grosses. (AP)
So what does one figure the Republican leadership in the Congress is going to make of the fact that the no. 2 officer at the United Nations, Mark Malloch Brown, whose current annual net salary as an undersecretary general is $125,000 a year, has emerged as the tenant in a house that Mr. Soros owns and that rents for $120,000 a year? (NY SUN)
The London Sunday Times also quoted Mr. Malloch Brown as saying the atmosphere at the United Nations has become "entirely like revolutionary France, where the level of backstabbing and betrayal would make Shakespeare wince."
40-acre estate in the Hamptons - the Long Island summer retreat of New York's rich and famous, has been sold for $US90 million, a new US record for a residential property.(ABC NEWS)
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, responding to a loosening of mortgage-lending standards, said the risks of defaults are growing for some types of home loans. (WSJ)
London (CNSNews.com) - British residents could face a form of energy rationing within the next decade under proposals currently being studied to reduce the U.K.'s carbon dioxide emissions to comply with the Kyoto Protocol.
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- CNOOC Ltd., China's third-largest oil producer, offered to buy Unocal Corp. for $18.5 billion in cash, topping the price Chevron Corp. agreed to pay for the U.S. oil and gas company.
on the basis of a new study, a team of political scientists is arguing that people's gut-level reaction to issues like the death penalty, taxes and abortion is strongly influenced by genetic inheritance. The new research builds on a series of studies that indicate that people's general approach to social issues - more conservative or more progressive - is influenced by genes. (NY TIMES)
"Please remember, absolutely no ranting and raving about Bush or Blair and the Iraq war, this is not why you have been invited to appear," Geldoff said to the manager of a top recording artist, who asked not to be identified. "We want to bring Mr. Bush in, not run him away."(LIVE 8 founder Bob Geldof)
Thursday, former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson (In 1990, Joseph Wilson became the last American diplomat to meet with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.) admitted that "we all believed" Saddam had WMD. "I believe the threat to the United States posed by Saddam's weapons of mass destruction -- which we all believed he had -- could have been dealt with using something less violent than the invasion, conquest and occupation of Iraq," Wilson said in a response to a question from Cybercast News Service following a Democrat-sponsored hearing on the matter.
Moscow (CNSNews.com) - Tensions are running high in Kyrgyzstan ahead of the July 10 presidential election, with recent riots in the capital, Bishkek, showing the fragility of the democratic process in the Central Asian nation.
Today, Iran is ruled by men who suppress liberty at home and spread terror across the world," he said in a written statement for the press. "Power is in the hands of an unelected few who have retained power through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy." (President Bush NY SUN)
WASHINGTON - The choice for Iranians tomorrow in the presidential runoff is between "bad and worse," according to a leader of the July 9, 1999, Tehran University uprisings, Ahmad Batebi. In a phone interview yesterday with The New York Sun, Mr. Batebi said, "The candidates were never elected by the people, the selection of the candidates are from the supreme leader. The people of Iran had no power in choosing any of them." (NY SUN)
"Batman Begins" debuted as the top movie with $46.9 million, while overall movie revenues skidded for the 17th-straight weekend, tying a slide in 1985 that had been the longest box-office decline since analysts began keeping detailed records on movie grosses. (AP)
So what does one figure the Republican leadership in the Congress is going to make of the fact that the no. 2 officer at the United Nations, Mark Malloch Brown, whose current annual net salary as an undersecretary general is $125,000 a year, has emerged as the tenant in a house that Mr. Soros owns and that rents for $120,000 a year? (NY SUN)
The London Sunday Times also quoted Mr. Malloch Brown as saying the atmosphere at the United Nations has become "entirely like revolutionary France, where the level of backstabbing and betrayal would make Shakespeare wince."
40-acre estate in the Hamptons - the Long Island summer retreat of New York's rich and famous, has been sold for $US90 million, a new US record for a residential property.(ABC NEWS)
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, responding to a loosening of mortgage-lending standards, said the risks of defaults are growing for some types of home loans. (WSJ)
London (CNSNews.com) - British residents could face a form of energy rationing within the next decade under proposals currently being studied to reduce the U.K.'s carbon dioxide emissions to comply with the Kyoto Protocol.
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- CNOOC Ltd., China's third-largest oil producer, offered to buy Unocal Corp. for $18.5 billion in cash, topping the price Chevron Corp. agreed to pay for the U.S. oil and gas company.
"This is the right wing attack machine on crack!"
June 20, 2005
Hello,
The way things look my bet is an ever expanding “summer rally”, followed by the traditional fall correction starting in September after labor day and ending around the third week of October and then rallying thru year end. Is this the beginning of something big? Long-term investment returns would suggest yes. The recent rally since the lows of April has shown ever expanding resilience, oil prices have risen yet stock continue to rise. Shhhhhhhhh don’t tell anyone, it is called earnings growth. Higher oil prices and the risks associated with them have long since been factored into the market. As I said last week in the current environment of slightly higher oil prices seems to be a positive, keeping the economy from over heating. Don’t fall for the ‘falling markets in Europe equal higher oil prices” argument. Stocks are down in Europe because of fears that the EU may dissolve.
The other issue that promotes stock gains is the progress being made putting a lot of the “Clinton Era” company crooks in the big house restoring credibility to the market. The wheels of justice may be moving a bit slow for the average investor, but they are moving .From Tyco, WorldCom, Health South, Enron to Adelphia Communication; it is up the river, off to the big house, away at college, on the rock pile and working on the chain gang. Seeing Bernie Evers make license plates wont get your big loses back but it just may be enough for investors to get that warm and fuzzy feeling back for the equity markets.
James
Hello,
The way things look my bet is an ever expanding “summer rally”, followed by the traditional fall correction starting in September after labor day and ending around the third week of October and then rallying thru year end. Is this the beginning of something big? Long-term investment returns would suggest yes. The recent rally since the lows of April has shown ever expanding resilience, oil prices have risen yet stock continue to rise. Shhhhhhhhh don’t tell anyone, it is called earnings growth. Higher oil prices and the risks associated with them have long since been factored into the market. As I said last week in the current environment of slightly higher oil prices seems to be a positive, keeping the economy from over heating. Don’t fall for the ‘falling markets in Europe equal higher oil prices” argument. Stocks are down in Europe because of fears that the EU may dissolve.
The other issue that promotes stock gains is the progress being made putting a lot of the “Clinton Era” company crooks in the big house restoring credibility to the market. The wheels of justice may be moving a bit slow for the average investor, but they are moving .From Tyco, WorldCom, Health South, Enron to Adelphia Communication; it is up the river, off to the big house, away at college, on the rock pile and working on the chain gang. Seeing Bernie Evers make license plates wont get your big loses back but it just may be enough for investors to get that warm and fuzzy feeling back for the equity markets.
James
Wednesday, June 22, 2005
No apology excepted
Listen "little dick" Durban unlike the spineless Republican leadership I do not and will not except your apology
Friday, June 17, 2005
Dick Durban must resign now!
Senator "little dick"I am going to ask you to resign immediately, your recent comments on Gitmo is so reprehensible, dishonest and treasonous, the American people no longer need your service, but I am sure Bin Laden will be glad to hire you. You have not only insulated the US military ,the President ,the American people but worse you have totally denigrated those who were put to death by the most extreme means by the Nazi’s , Pol Pot and the Soviet Prison camps. You owe the souls of these people and apology!
http://durbin.senate.gov/index.cfm
http://durbin.senate.gov/index.cfm
Wednesday, June 15, 2005
"The world is more likely to run out of uses for oil than Saudi Arabia is going to run out of oil"
June 11, 2005
Hello,
No compelling reason, that’s what they tell me simply no compelling reason to change, rollover, get involved, buy, sell or do just about anything. Folks it is a matter of time in the market not timing. Most of the time in a one year period you have a 70% chance you will make money and 30% you won’t, but extend that out 5 years and your odds increase for a positive return to 88% and a chance of a loss receded to 12%. Historically over any five year period the average return is 11.06 %, per year but if you missed the best 10 days your return drops to 5.94%.If you miss the best 40 days (2months of trading in a five year period) in a 5 year period your return declines to a negative return of – 4.11% annualized. The point being that waiting for the right time to invest overtime increases your chance of a negative return significantly. From December 1992 to December 2002 if you invested $1000 on the 10 best days over that 10 year period your total return would be 8.89% if you invested $1000 on the 10 worst days your return would be 7.28%. The best day being the day the market hit a year low and the worst day being the day the market hit a year high. Again you have to be in it to win it, worrying about the best fund or the right time to invest makes little or no difference .It is the long term commitment of staying fully invested that counts.
Greenspan speaks and the market yawns. He basically stuck with the “Goldie Locks” scenario, the economy is not too hot, not too cold and FED remains undeterred to continue to slowly raise long term rates. The bond market sees it different and continues to signal the rate raises from the FED are more behind us than in front of us. Maybe instead of oil prices being a curse, they are a blessing. The net effect of higher crude is to put the brakes on the economy just slightly there by keeping long term interest rates down. Low long term interest rates propel the housing and construction industry to robust growth.
First it was wearing women’s underwear on the head, now the US Military is playing Christine Aguilera tunes to torture the prisoners at Gitmo...oh the humanities …Drawn by the music and quality meals Club med is now looking to take over Gitmo and set up a resort, Club Gitmo. By the way I am not sure if Club Gitmo guests will be encouraged to wear women’s underwear on there heads or not. Rumor has it that Senator Ted Kennedy will be offering swimming lessons( sorry couldn’t resist that one). In other news the great Satin’s own Sean Penn is going to Iran to report on the up coming “election” and imparting us his wisdom on one of the most tyrannical Regimes on earth that puts women to death for being raped. And finally am I the only one that is amused by seeing Hilary Clinton speaking about “to much sex on television”, well Senator is depends how you define “sex” don’t you think?
James
Hello,
No compelling reason, that’s what they tell me simply no compelling reason to change, rollover, get involved, buy, sell or do just about anything. Folks it is a matter of time in the market not timing. Most of the time in a one year period you have a 70% chance you will make money and 30% you won’t, but extend that out 5 years and your odds increase for a positive return to 88% and a chance of a loss receded to 12%. Historically over any five year period the average return is 11.06 %, per year but if you missed the best 10 days your return drops to 5.94%.If you miss the best 40 days (2months of trading in a five year period) in a 5 year period your return declines to a negative return of – 4.11% annualized. The point being that waiting for the right time to invest overtime increases your chance of a negative return significantly. From December 1992 to December 2002 if you invested $1000 on the 10 best days over that 10 year period your total return would be 8.89% if you invested $1000 on the 10 worst days your return would be 7.28%. The best day being the day the market hit a year low and the worst day being the day the market hit a year high. Again you have to be in it to win it, worrying about the best fund or the right time to invest makes little or no difference .It is the long term commitment of staying fully invested that counts.
Greenspan speaks and the market yawns. He basically stuck with the “Goldie Locks” scenario, the economy is not too hot, not too cold and FED remains undeterred to continue to slowly raise long term rates. The bond market sees it different and continues to signal the rate raises from the FED are more behind us than in front of us. Maybe instead of oil prices being a curse, they are a blessing. The net effect of higher crude is to put the brakes on the economy just slightly there by keeping long term interest rates down. Low long term interest rates propel the housing and construction industry to robust growth.
First it was wearing women’s underwear on the head, now the US Military is playing Christine Aguilera tunes to torture the prisoners at Gitmo...oh the humanities …Drawn by the music and quality meals Club med is now looking to take over Gitmo and set up a resort, Club Gitmo. By the way I am not sure if Club Gitmo guests will be encouraged to wear women’s underwear on there heads or not. Rumor has it that Senator Ted Kennedy will be offering swimming lessons( sorry couldn’t resist that one). In other news the great Satin’s own Sean Penn is going to Iran to report on the up coming “election” and imparting us his wisdom on one of the most tyrannical Regimes on earth that puts women to death for being raped. And finally am I the only one that is amused by seeing Hilary Clinton speaking about “to much sex on television”, well Senator is depends how you define “sex” don’t you think?
James
Monday, June 13, 2005
Tips on buying CD's
Recently I have had some clients ask me what’s the difference between buying a CD from a bank or one from a broker? Here are some helpful hints;
Unlike a Certificate of Deposit that is bought directly from a bank; a brokered CD is sold by stock brokers (and others). And unlike a bank-bought CD, a brokered CD is marketable on a secondary market. It is FDIC insured up to $100,000 and it is often marketed as a suitable alternative to Treasury issues.
Because these are marketable securities it is important to go farther than yield; another words don’t just be a yield hog.
1. Remember like other fixed income investments if interest rates go up, the market value of these securities may go down. That is elementary to anyone who has ever been interested in fixed-income investments.
2. Check the rating of the bank. This can be done without cost at either of the following rating agencies (it's best to check both, in case there is a discrepancy):
bauerfinancial.com
bankrate.com
3. Check the value of a similar issue on the secondary market. Higher rated Bank’s CD’s trade stronger and lower rated banks trade weaker. That means that if you want to sell the CD before its maturity, which you can, CD’s from Banks that have lower ratings often trade below what they were bought at. This could create a loss for the investor.
4. Check the secondary market, as an alternative to new issues, if the secondary-market value is less than par. That may result in a good deal for you. For instance, an issue with a coupon rate of 4.15%, if it sells on the secondary market for 93.5, will yield 4.98%.
5. Remember a broker has hundreds of CD’s to chose from so it is very important for the prospective buyer to as forth coming and truthful about their needs as possible so that the best alternative can be found.
Call me for a CD QUOTE today
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
Horwitz & Associates
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450
1(888)599-1188 or (201)652-3003
Unlike a Certificate of Deposit that is bought directly from a bank; a brokered CD is sold by stock brokers (and others). And unlike a bank-bought CD, a brokered CD is marketable on a secondary market. It is FDIC insured up to $100,000 and it is often marketed as a suitable alternative to Treasury issues.
Because these are marketable securities it is important to go farther than yield; another words don’t just be a yield hog.
1. Remember like other fixed income investments if interest rates go up, the market value of these securities may go down. That is elementary to anyone who has ever been interested in fixed-income investments.
2. Check the rating of the bank. This can be done without cost at either of the following rating agencies (it's best to check both, in case there is a discrepancy):
bauerfinancial.com
bankrate.com
3. Check the value of a similar issue on the secondary market. Higher rated Bank’s CD’s trade stronger and lower rated banks trade weaker. That means that if you want to sell the CD before its maturity, which you can, CD’s from Banks that have lower ratings often trade below what they were bought at. This could create a loss for the investor.
4. Check the secondary market, as an alternative to new issues, if the secondary-market value is less than par. That may result in a good deal for you. For instance, an issue with a coupon rate of 4.15%, if it sells on the secondary market for 93.5, will yield 4.98%.
5. Remember a broker has hundreds of CD’s to chose from so it is very important for the prospective buyer to as forth coming and truthful about their needs as possible so that the best alternative can be found.
Call me for a CD QUOTE today
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
Horwitz & Associates
54 Washington Place
Ridgewood NJ 07450
1(888)599-1188 or (201)652-3003
Thursday, June 09, 2005
in the news
ATLANTA (AP) - CNN should cover international news and the environment, not the "pervert of the day," network founder Ted Turner said Wednesday as the first 24-hour news network turned 25.
ROME (Reuters) - Italy should consider leaving the single currency and reintroducing the lira, Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni said in a newspaper interview on Friday. Maroni, a member of the euro-skeptical Northern League party, told the Repubblica daily Italy should hold a referendum to decide whether to return to the lira, at least temporarily. He also said European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was one of those chiefly responsible for the "disaster of the euro. "The euro "has proved inadequate in the face of the economic slowdown, the loss of competitiveness and the job crisis," Maroni said.
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Dutch and French voters have now spoken, delivering crushing defeats to the European Union's proposed new constitution. And the fallout will be immense. …And the economics of integration that have dominated Europe for the last 30 years have come to an end. Forget convergence. The big trend in the next few years will be Europe's economies going their own way, not with each other. In time, even the euro's survival might be called into question.
WASHINGTON -- Federal authorities may prosecute sick people who smoke pot on doctors' orders, the Supreme Court ruled Monday, concluding that state medical marijuana laws don't protect users from a federal ban on the drug. (WSJ)
Since June 2004, the Fed has raised its short-term rate target to 3% from 1% and has signaled plans to raise it further, while the 10-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to less than 4% from 4.7%. That sort of decline in long-term rates "is clearly without recent precedent," Mr. Greenspan said via satellite to the International Monetary Conference, a meeting of bankers from around the world, in Beijing. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- During last year's presidential campaign, John F. Kerry was the candidate often portrayed as intellectual and complex, while George W. Bush was the populist who mangled his sentences. But newly released records show that Bush and Kerry had a virtually identical grade average at Yale University four decades ago (Boston Globe)
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Executives at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s General Re unit knew four years ago that American International Group Inc. would use a reinsurance transaction to ``cook the books,'' according to phone transcripts cited in a suit from regulators.
Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. said it has nearly doubled its stake in General Motors Corp. to 7.2% but fell well short of its goal of amassing an 8.8% stake, in part because some investors are betting the stock is poised to rise. (WSJ)
ROME (Reuters) - Italy should consider leaving the single currency and reintroducing the lira, Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni said in a newspaper interview on Friday. Maroni, a member of the euro-skeptical Northern League party, told the Repubblica daily Italy should hold a referendum to decide whether to return to the lira, at least temporarily. He also said European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was one of those chiefly responsible for the "disaster of the euro. "The euro "has proved inadequate in the face of the economic slowdown, the loss of competitiveness and the job crisis," Maroni said.
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Dutch and French voters have now spoken, delivering crushing defeats to the European Union's proposed new constitution. And the fallout will be immense. …And the economics of integration that have dominated Europe for the last 30 years have come to an end. Forget convergence. The big trend in the next few years will be Europe's economies going their own way, not with each other. In time, even the euro's survival might be called into question.
WASHINGTON -- Federal authorities may prosecute sick people who smoke pot on doctors' orders, the Supreme Court ruled Monday, concluding that state medical marijuana laws don't protect users from a federal ban on the drug. (WSJ)
Since June 2004, the Fed has raised its short-term rate target to 3% from 1% and has signaled plans to raise it further, while the 10-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to less than 4% from 4.7%. That sort of decline in long-term rates "is clearly without recent precedent," Mr. Greenspan said via satellite to the International Monetary Conference, a meeting of bankers from around the world, in Beijing. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON -- During last year's presidential campaign, John F. Kerry was the candidate often portrayed as intellectual and complex, while George W. Bush was the populist who mangled his sentences. But newly released records show that Bush and Kerry had a virtually identical grade average at Yale University four decades ago (Boston Globe)
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Executives at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s General Re unit knew four years ago that American International Group Inc. would use a reinsurance transaction to ``cook the books,'' according to phone transcripts cited in a suit from regulators.
Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. said it has nearly doubled its stake in General Motors Corp. to 7.2% but fell well short of its goal of amassing an 8.8% stake, in part because some investors are betting the stock is poised to rise. (WSJ)
"pervert of the day"
June 7,2005
Hello,
In a blow to the SEC the Supreme Court ruled against the use of medical marijuana for stock holders in order to ease the pain of underperforming portfolios. Stock holders have for some time turned to marijuana to simply to take the edge off. Sighting the inability to discern the negative impact of higher gas prices on SUV sales by management GM shareholders got a special dispensation form the Supremes themselves.
So what does it really mean to have increasing short term interest rates, while long rates continue to decline? What it is not; is a sign that inflation is coming. It suggests in fact the total opposite. I will say it again just to make it clear; declining long term rates signal there is an absence of inflation in the long term. So then what, you say? Perhaps it is suggesting the level of systematic risk is beginning to decline in the long run. That means that the new paradigm of risk assessment factored into the market since 9/11 may be receding. This could lead to higher valuations and better stock market returns.
Back to 1995-1996, looking at the recent trading it is interesting to see that storage technology have been trending up and perhaps semi conductors are about to do the same. This same pattern was in place in late 1995 into the first half of 1996 and was the precursor to the period of “irrational exuberance” at the end of the 1990’s.
A client asked me the other day what all these brokerage houses mean when they say buy quality? When you hear the “Buy quality” mantra from Wall Street firms it is best to run for your life .Their list of quality is often a list of dogs they are trying to rid their own institutional portfolios of. Buy quality as used in the brokerage business is meaningless term. Today’s quality is tomorrows General Motors and the one thing for certain in the stock market is that things always change. New technologies, new industries, demographics and changes in life style mean changes in the way we all do business. “Buy quality” is simply an empty phrase used to separate you from your money.
James
Hello,
In a blow to the SEC the Supreme Court ruled against the use of medical marijuana for stock holders in order to ease the pain of underperforming portfolios. Stock holders have for some time turned to marijuana to simply to take the edge off. Sighting the inability to discern the negative impact of higher gas prices on SUV sales by management GM shareholders got a special dispensation form the Supremes themselves.
So what does it really mean to have increasing short term interest rates, while long rates continue to decline? What it is not; is a sign that inflation is coming. It suggests in fact the total opposite. I will say it again just to make it clear; declining long term rates signal there is an absence of inflation in the long term. So then what, you say? Perhaps it is suggesting the level of systematic risk is beginning to decline in the long run. That means that the new paradigm of risk assessment factored into the market since 9/11 may be receding. This could lead to higher valuations and better stock market returns.
Back to 1995-1996, looking at the recent trading it is interesting to see that storage technology have been trending up and perhaps semi conductors are about to do the same. This same pattern was in place in late 1995 into the first half of 1996 and was the precursor to the period of “irrational exuberance” at the end of the 1990’s.
A client asked me the other day what all these brokerage houses mean when they say buy quality? When you hear the “Buy quality” mantra from Wall Street firms it is best to run for your life .Their list of quality is often a list of dogs they are trying to rid their own institutional portfolios of. Buy quality as used in the brokerage business is meaningless term. Today’s quality is tomorrows General Motors and the one thing for certain in the stock market is that things always change. New technologies, new industries, demographics and changes in life style mean changes in the way we all do business. “Buy quality” is simply an empty phrase used to separate you from your money.
James
Monday, June 06, 2005
Terrorism and your Investments Seminar
Terrorism and your Investments Seminar -Outline
On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.
Four main forces at work;
1) George Bush and the Red State Neo Con’s
2) George Soros, the UN, the EU and the one world socialist government crowd
3) Iran, Islamofacist quest for a Global Caliphate
4) China and its quest for resources
Each of these four forces represents a philosophic view of the world and is attempting to remake the world in its own image.
A) Bush and the Neo Cons take the view that the individual is paramount, self determination is optimal and individual freedom and capitalism equal peace and prosperity.
B) George Soros’s failure to win any elections, and near universal rejection of his message, UN in the mist of the Oil-For-Food, the largest financial scandal in history, including the bribing of the UN Security Council and the recent rejection of the EU constitution by its own constituents.
C) Iran is the eye of the storm of the global Islamic fascist jihad. Little or nothing to do with Islam, based on anti Semitism, Nihilism and Dominance of and over western culture, a sense of superiority
D) China’s desperate quest for resources such as gas and oil, the division between the PLA and the Central Communist Party, in and evolving society looking to establish new institutions.
The role of the media; main stream (vs) new media
The Watergate 1970’s template
Conclusion:
Increased risk paradigm leads to depressed valuations equal the buying opportunity of a life time.
On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.
Four main forces at work;
1) George Bush and the Red State Neo Con’s
2) George Soros, the UN, the EU and the one world socialist government crowd
3) Iran, Islamofacist quest for a Global Caliphate
4) China and its quest for resources
Each of these four forces represents a philosophic view of the world and is attempting to remake the world in its own image.
A) Bush and the Neo Cons take the view that the individual is paramount, self determination is optimal and individual freedom and capitalism equal peace and prosperity.
B) George Soros’s failure to win any elections, and near universal rejection of his message, UN in the mist of the Oil-For-Food, the largest financial scandal in history, including the bribing of the UN Security Council and the recent rejection of the EU constitution by its own constituents.
C) Iran is the eye of the storm of the global Islamic fascist jihad. Little or nothing to do with Islam, based on anti Semitism, Nihilism and Dominance of and over western culture, a sense of superiority
D) China’s desperate quest for resources such as gas and oil, the division between the PLA and the Central Communist Party, in and evolving society looking to establish new institutions.
The role of the media; main stream (vs) new media
The Watergate 1970’s template
Conclusion:
Increased risk paradigm leads to depressed valuations equal the buying opportunity of a life time.
Thursday, June 02, 2005
this week in the news
If the market duplicates the experience during the Great Depression, the worst 10-year experience so far with a record average annual loss of 0.89 percent, the S&P 500 would have to rise for the balance of the decade by 3.2 percent a year. In only nine of the last 70 10-year rolling time periods has the market returned less than a five percent average annual return. If the market were to duplicate its worst performance since 1970, a gain of 5.86 percent a year between 1970 and 1979, the market index would have to move up from here at a 14 percent annual rate for the rest of the decade. (Milton Ezrati, Senior Economic Strategist for Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC)
Core inflation is still tame, rising at 1.6 percent over the past year, about the same as the second half of last year and actually slower than in 2002. The gold price, at $418, is consistent with less-than 2 percent underlying inflation. So is the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.09 percent and a yield curve that has flattened to just over 100 basis points. (Larry Kudlow)
LONDON (AP) - A cell-phone ring tone appeared set to top the British singles chart Sunday, outselling the new single by the band Coldplay by nearly four to one, a music retailer said.
Coming only three days after French voters rejected the constitution, the Dutch "no" vote was so decisive that the treaty seems to have no future in its current form. (NY SUN)
European Union is poised to shelve its proposed constitution for several years after French voters rejected the treaty in a referendum on Sunday.(Yahoo News)
The chaos in Brussels caused by France’s unexpectedly emphatic rejection of the European constitution has put Mr Blair, who takes up the EU presidency in July, in a powerful position to impose his vision of the future shape of the Union. (TIMES ON LINE)
The under-fire euro fell further on Wednesday, slumping to an eight-month low against the US dollar amid rumblings over the long-term future of the eurozone. The fresh selling was prompted by a report claiming that Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, and Axel Weber, the president of the Bundesbank, were present at a meeting at which the possible break-up of European Monetary Union was discussed. The German Bundestag is also said to have commissioned a report on the legal repercussions of a country wishing to leave the EMU. (FT)
Underneath all this there is a more profound question, which is about the future of Europe and, in particular, the future of the European economy and how we deal with the modern questions of globalization and technological change," Mr. Blair told journalists during a vacation in Italy. Nine European Union members ratified the constitution before the French referendum. But France's no vote is likely to kill the constitution - at least in its current form - because it requires approval by all of the union's member countries. (NYTIMES)
British Laborite and progressive George Galloway calls for a formal uniting of the left in the West with the Islamic jihadists in the war on terror. (By David Horowitz)
Core inflation is still tame, rising at 1.6 percent over the past year, about the same as the second half of last year and actually slower than in 2002. The gold price, at $418, is consistent with less-than 2 percent underlying inflation. So is the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.09 percent and a yield curve that has flattened to just over 100 basis points. (Larry Kudlow)
LONDON (AP) - A cell-phone ring tone appeared set to top the British singles chart Sunday, outselling the new single by the band Coldplay by nearly four to one, a music retailer said.
Coming only three days after French voters rejected the constitution, the Dutch "no" vote was so decisive that the treaty seems to have no future in its current form. (NY SUN)
European Union is poised to shelve its proposed constitution for several years after French voters rejected the treaty in a referendum on Sunday.(Yahoo News)
The chaos in Brussels caused by France’s unexpectedly emphatic rejection of the European constitution has put Mr Blair, who takes up the EU presidency in July, in a powerful position to impose his vision of the future shape of the Union. (TIMES ON LINE)
The under-fire euro fell further on Wednesday, slumping to an eight-month low against the US dollar amid rumblings over the long-term future of the eurozone. The fresh selling was prompted by a report claiming that Hans Eichel, the German finance minister, and Axel Weber, the president of the Bundesbank, were present at a meeting at which the possible break-up of European Monetary Union was discussed. The German Bundestag is also said to have commissioned a report on the legal repercussions of a country wishing to leave the EMU. (FT)
Underneath all this there is a more profound question, which is about the future of Europe and, in particular, the future of the European economy and how we deal with the modern questions of globalization and technological change," Mr. Blair told journalists during a vacation in Italy. Nine European Union members ratified the constitution before the French referendum. But France's no vote is likely to kill the constitution - at least in its current form - because it requires approval by all of the union's member countries. (NYTIMES)
British Laborite and progressive George Galloway calls for a formal uniting of the left in the West with the Islamic jihadists in the war on terror. (By David Horowitz)
Rejection!...and a very deep throat
Terrorism and your Investments Seminar
On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.
June 1, 2005
Hello
France and Holland reject the EU constitution to the shock of all the elitist’s who somehow failed to understand one of the most basic rights of man kind; the right of self determination. With the EU treaty dead ,looks like Iraq will have a constitution before the EU. Perhaps it was a plot by Microsoft to thwart an EU anti trust investigation. Or maybe John Kerry wants to run for president of France. The problem as I see it is that no one bothered to ask the citizens of Europe what they want from a constitution.
What’s and investor to think? I am not sure yet but with the Bundersbank all ready planning for the demise of the euro sounds like this thing is deader than a door nail. Maybe Europe will have to go back to worrying about high unemployment, low productivity growth, no job creation, economic stagnation, a looming retirement crisis, declining populations, oil for food scandal over regulation and so on. Oh to pine away for the days of just blaming Bush, America and the “Jews” for everything.
A resounding defeat for the forces of Brussels, and of coarse the American Media continues to miss one of the biggest stories of the year and focus instead on the consumer confidence numbers which have failed to have any predictive value what so ever for many years. The have consistently signaled a decline in consumer spending yet actual spending continues to increase. The reason is simple in a world were large retailers release up to date data minute by minute, there is no longer a need for polls. We can verify the amount of consumer spending almost instantaneously making consumer confidence “push” polls obsolete.
So thirty years later what did Nixon really do? Apparently he was a politician that lied, gee that’s novel. Ok I am not much for wage price freezes or breaking the gold standard or many of the other ill conceived economic policies Nixon pushed on the American economy, taking us a generation to overcome. The real net result of Watergate was to abandon Vietnam creating a human catastrophe in Vietnam and Cambodia .Leading to the Kilmer Rouge killing 30% of the population and imposing tyranny in the region via the domino effect, good job guys.
James
On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.
June 1, 2005
Hello
France and Holland reject the EU constitution to the shock of all the elitist’s who somehow failed to understand one of the most basic rights of man kind; the right of self determination. With the EU treaty dead ,looks like Iraq will have a constitution before the EU. Perhaps it was a plot by Microsoft to thwart an EU anti trust investigation. Or maybe John Kerry wants to run for president of France. The problem as I see it is that no one bothered to ask the citizens of Europe what they want from a constitution.
What’s and investor to think? I am not sure yet but with the Bundersbank all ready planning for the demise of the euro sounds like this thing is deader than a door nail. Maybe Europe will have to go back to worrying about high unemployment, low productivity growth, no job creation, economic stagnation, a looming retirement crisis, declining populations, oil for food scandal over regulation and so on. Oh to pine away for the days of just blaming Bush, America and the “Jews” for everything.
A resounding defeat for the forces of Brussels, and of coarse the American Media continues to miss one of the biggest stories of the year and focus instead on the consumer confidence numbers which have failed to have any predictive value what so ever for many years. The have consistently signaled a decline in consumer spending yet actual spending continues to increase. The reason is simple in a world were large retailers release up to date data minute by minute, there is no longer a need for polls. We can verify the amount of consumer spending almost instantaneously making consumer confidence “push” polls obsolete.
So thirty years later what did Nixon really do? Apparently he was a politician that lied, gee that’s novel. Ok I am not much for wage price freezes or breaking the gold standard or many of the other ill conceived economic policies Nixon pushed on the American economy, taking us a generation to overcome. The real net result of Watergate was to abandon Vietnam creating a human catastrophe in Vietnam and Cambodia .Leading to the Kilmer Rouge killing 30% of the population and imposing tyranny in the region via the domino effect, good job guys.
James
Thursday, May 26, 2005
in the news this week
MEXICO CITY (AP) - President Vicente Fox refused to apologize Monday for saying Mexicans in the United States do the work that blacks won't - a comment widely viewed as acceptable in a country where blackface comedy is still considered funny and nicknames often reflect skin color.
VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran is circumventing international export bans on sensitive dual-use materials by smuggling graphite and a graphite compound that can be used to make conventional and nuclear weapons, an Iranian dissident and a senior diplomat said Friday.
UNITED NATIONS - Stating that the United Nations needs "nothing less than a transformation," the organization's chief of staff, Mark Malloch Brown, told Congress yesterday that reform could be achieved only by increasing funding and reducing American interference at Turtle Bay.(NY SUN)
Muslim protesters today called for the bombing of New York in a demonstration outside the US embassy in London. (Luke David, Evening Standard)
A satellite survey shows that between 1992 and 2003, the East Antarctic ice sheet gained about 45 billion tonnes of ice. (News@Nature.com)
"The Sunnis and the Shiites, the Kurds and all the various tribes can work out accommodations that will allow them to build a stable society, I think that will be good for Iraq and good for the Middle East," (X-President Bill)Clinton said at the end of a two-day visit to Denmark.(Yahoo News)
WASHINGTON, May 17 - The Bush administration kept up the pressure today on Newsweek magazine to do something beyond retracting an article asserting that investigators had confirmed the desecration of a Koran by American interrogators trying to unsettle Muslim detainees.” There is lasting damage to our image because of this report," the chief White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, said at a news briefing. "And we would encourage Newsweek to do all that they can to help repair the damage that has been done, particularly in the region.” (NYT).
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, in its hardest stance yet, warned China on Tuesday that it likely will be accused of manipulating its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage over the United States — unless Beijing acts swiftly to overhaul its currency system. (Yahoo News)
Industry analysts say the refining shortage hits especially hard in the U.S. Refiners here haven't built a new plant since 1976, and remain reluctant to do so for a variety of reasons, including public resistance, expected returns on investment and environmental regulations.(WSJ)
BRUSSELS – European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet delivered a newly pessimistic view of the euro-zone economy, saying Europe faces "relatively high uncertainty" and signaling that the bank will probably downgrade its growth forecast for a second time this year. (WSJ)
Opinion polls put the "No" camp ahead in France as well as in the Netherlands, which votes on the treaty on June 1, raising the prospect of a double rejection which could hold up European integration and cause jitters on financial markets. (Timothy Heritage, Yahoo news)
Nonetheless, we are going to have a tech rally before this year is out. Reason: We always do -- at least we have for the past six out of seven years -- with one exception, 2000. And that year doesn't count because it was the market implosion of a lifetime. (Barron’s)
In fact, Goldman predicts that a tech rally "could start even earlier this year, [as] investors could see a green light" after they clear any potentially negative second-quarter pre-announcements by early to mid-July. However, Goldman adds, investors will still need to "slog" through summer, in some cases, because Europe continues to be weaker than North America. (Barron’s)
Only 42 inches wide, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was supposed to alter global oil markets forever. The 1,000-mile project has transformed the geopolitics of the Caucasus and its impact is now being felt in the vastness of central Asia…..Its architects and investors claimed the pipeline would shore up energy supplies in the US and Europe for 50 years, protecting our gas-guzzling way of life and easing our reliance on the House of Saud. (The Independent)
(CNSNews.com) - In a major achievement for the Caucasus and a strategic victory for the U.S., one of the world's longest oil pipelines has come on line, providing the region with its first outlet to world oil markets that bypasses Russia. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline "can help generate balanced economic growth, and provide a foundation for a prosperous and just society that advances the cause of freedom," President Bush said in a message, read by Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman at the inauguration ceremony Wednesday.
VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran is circumventing international export bans on sensitive dual-use materials by smuggling graphite and a graphite compound that can be used to make conventional and nuclear weapons, an Iranian dissident and a senior diplomat said Friday.
UNITED NATIONS - Stating that the United Nations needs "nothing less than a transformation," the organization's chief of staff, Mark Malloch Brown, told Congress yesterday that reform could be achieved only by increasing funding and reducing American interference at Turtle Bay.(NY SUN)
Muslim protesters today called for the bombing of New York in a demonstration outside the US embassy in London. (Luke David, Evening Standard)
A satellite survey shows that between 1992 and 2003, the East Antarctic ice sheet gained about 45 billion tonnes of ice. (News@Nature.com)
"The Sunnis and the Shiites, the Kurds and all the various tribes can work out accommodations that will allow them to build a stable society, I think that will be good for Iraq and good for the Middle East," (X-President Bill)Clinton said at the end of a two-day visit to Denmark.(Yahoo News)
WASHINGTON, May 17 - The Bush administration kept up the pressure today on Newsweek magazine to do something beyond retracting an article asserting that investigators had confirmed the desecration of a Koran by American interrogators trying to unsettle Muslim detainees.” There is lasting damage to our image because of this report," the chief White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, said at a news briefing. "And we would encourage Newsweek to do all that they can to help repair the damage that has been done, particularly in the region.” (NYT).
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, in its hardest stance yet, warned China on Tuesday that it likely will be accused of manipulating its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage over the United States — unless Beijing acts swiftly to overhaul its currency system. (Yahoo News)
Industry analysts say the refining shortage hits especially hard in the U.S. Refiners here haven't built a new plant since 1976, and remain reluctant to do so for a variety of reasons, including public resistance, expected returns on investment and environmental regulations.(WSJ)
BRUSSELS – European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet delivered a newly pessimistic view of the euro-zone economy, saying Europe faces "relatively high uncertainty" and signaling that the bank will probably downgrade its growth forecast for a second time this year. (WSJ)
Opinion polls put the "No" camp ahead in France as well as in the Netherlands, which votes on the treaty on June 1, raising the prospect of a double rejection which could hold up European integration and cause jitters on financial markets. (Timothy Heritage, Yahoo news)
Nonetheless, we are going to have a tech rally before this year is out. Reason: We always do -- at least we have for the past six out of seven years -- with one exception, 2000. And that year doesn't count because it was the market implosion of a lifetime. (Barron’s)
In fact, Goldman predicts that a tech rally "could start even earlier this year, [as] investors could see a green light" after they clear any potentially negative second-quarter pre-announcements by early to mid-July. However, Goldman adds, investors will still need to "slog" through summer, in some cases, because Europe continues to be weaker than North America. (Barron’s)
Only 42 inches wide, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was supposed to alter global oil markets forever. The 1,000-mile project has transformed the geopolitics of the Caucasus and its impact is now being felt in the vastness of central Asia…..Its architects and investors claimed the pipeline would shore up energy supplies in the US and Europe for 50 years, protecting our gas-guzzling way of life and easing our reliance on the House of Saud. (The Independent)
(CNSNews.com) - In a major achievement for the Caucasus and a strategic victory for the U.S., one of the world's longest oil pipelines has come on line, providing the region with its first outlet to world oil markets that bypasses Russia. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline "can help generate balanced economic growth, and provide a foundation for a prosperous and just society that advances the cause of freedom," President Bush said in a message, read by Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman at the inauguration ceremony Wednesday.
briefs or boxers.... reason is we always do..
May 20, 2005
Hello,
Add one more thing to what every market needs….Transparency, liquidity, creditworthiness and Yankee victories. Funny the Yankee’s start to win and the market rallies. The Market seems to be signaling an end to the FED rate rising cycle. The data continues to suggest moderate growth, low inflation, a strengthening dollar, improved productivity and moderate job creation. Utilities continue to rally and growth stocks look to be back in vogue. The energy picture looks to be more a product of a refining capacity shortage than an energy shortage. Contrary to Wall Street conventional wisdom this is not the 1970’s, more like 1995-1996,where the “stealth” bear market of 1995 led to a significant rally in 1996 in technology stocks. With utilities telling us the interest rate raises are done and growth stocks back in favor, semiconductors after a long period of disfavor are once again leading the way .The Go-Go Days may be once again at hand.
Some clients have asked me how much money I should be putting away for retirement, charity, housing and so on. I have broken down income into some suggested spending and savings percentages; simply as a guideline everyone has a different situation. Charitable giving should run 5-10%, all savings should run 10-15%, housing 25-35%, and transportation should run 10-15%. I would also recommend 3 months of living expenses as an emergency fund perhaps 6 months if you have a very erratic income (like commission sales or self employed).
Since you asked a bit on my trip to Berlin;
-It is a great city to visit except everything is in German.
-Be careful bicycles have the right of way, over pedestrians or cars.
-You have to pay to use the bath room.
-Berliners are not rude nor anti American, but seem to lack the subtle nuances of manners; like ladies first, or let people off the u-bahn
before you enter.
-Mass transit in Berlin is awesome.
-Electronic signs tell you how long you have to wait for a bus or u-bahn (subway), s-bahn or the strasse bahn(street cars)
-The road signs are Crazy and seem to point to no where.
-New Yorkers would love it no one smiles.
- The Food and the food service were awful.
-Dunkin Donuts are every where.
-It stays light out until 10pm (2200).
-Despite almost 12% unemployment German girls love to shop, the stores were very crowded even in the middle of the day.
-What’s terrible in the US 3.1% GDP growth, is fantastic in Europe .50% GDP growth.
-There is a festival for every day of the week.
-Yes, the beer is really that good.
-You can actually by pieces of the Berlin wall, and come home with a bag of rocks.
My god first it was Tony Blair now it looks like the French will vote down the new EU constitution .It also appears the Mr. Schroeder in Germany will lose his job to a “pro American PM” How can that be ? But I thought the wise Europeans new better than to throw there fortunes in with that Cowboy from Texas? Perhaps selling nuclear weapons to Iran is not as popular as we have been led to believe? But never fear the UN is still telling the US the road to prosperity is for America to shut up and pay and many in New York would answer the UN should pay their parking tickets and get lost. Meanwhile the Senate gets back to work and is still pondering why most Americas hate the UN and think the Senate has the credibility of the run away bride. The completion of the BTC pipe line gives the west (Europe) access to more oil and circumvents Mullahs in Iran and the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia. Hummm I only know what I read but perhaps, just perhaps those neo-cons are on to something.
James
Hello,
Add one more thing to what every market needs….Transparency, liquidity, creditworthiness and Yankee victories. Funny the Yankee’s start to win and the market rallies. The Market seems to be signaling an end to the FED rate rising cycle. The data continues to suggest moderate growth, low inflation, a strengthening dollar, improved productivity and moderate job creation. Utilities continue to rally and growth stocks look to be back in vogue. The energy picture looks to be more a product of a refining capacity shortage than an energy shortage. Contrary to Wall Street conventional wisdom this is not the 1970’s, more like 1995-1996,where the “stealth” bear market of 1995 led to a significant rally in 1996 in technology stocks. With utilities telling us the interest rate raises are done and growth stocks back in favor, semiconductors after a long period of disfavor are once again leading the way .The Go-Go Days may be once again at hand.
Some clients have asked me how much money I should be putting away for retirement, charity, housing and so on. I have broken down income into some suggested spending and savings percentages; simply as a guideline everyone has a different situation. Charitable giving should run 5-10%, all savings should run 10-15%, housing 25-35%, and transportation should run 10-15%. I would also recommend 3 months of living expenses as an emergency fund perhaps 6 months if you have a very erratic income (like commission sales or self employed).
Since you asked a bit on my trip to Berlin;
-It is a great city to visit except everything is in German.
-Be careful bicycles have the right of way, over pedestrians or cars.
-You have to pay to use the bath room.
-Berliners are not rude nor anti American, but seem to lack the subtle nuances of manners; like ladies first, or let people off the u-bahn
before you enter.
-Mass transit in Berlin is awesome.
-Electronic signs tell you how long you have to wait for a bus or u-bahn (subway), s-bahn or the strasse bahn(street cars)
-The road signs are Crazy and seem to point to no where.
-New Yorkers would love it no one smiles.
- The Food and the food service were awful.
-Dunkin Donuts are every where.
-It stays light out until 10pm (2200).
-Despite almost 12% unemployment German girls love to shop, the stores were very crowded even in the middle of the day.
-What’s terrible in the US 3.1% GDP growth, is fantastic in Europe .50% GDP growth.
-There is a festival for every day of the week.
-Yes, the beer is really that good.
-You can actually by pieces of the Berlin wall, and come home with a bag of rocks.
My god first it was Tony Blair now it looks like the French will vote down the new EU constitution .It also appears the Mr. Schroeder in Germany will lose his job to a “pro American PM” How can that be ? But I thought the wise Europeans new better than to throw there fortunes in with that Cowboy from Texas? Perhaps selling nuclear weapons to Iran is not as popular as we have been led to believe? But never fear the UN is still telling the US the road to prosperity is for America to shut up and pay and many in New York would answer the UN should pay their parking tickets and get lost. Meanwhile the Senate gets back to work and is still pondering why most Americas hate the UN and think the Senate has the credibility of the run away bride. The completion of the BTC pipe line gives the west (Europe) access to more oil and circumvents Mullahs in Iran and the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia. Hummm I only know what I read but perhaps, just perhaps those neo-cons are on to something.
James
Friday, May 20, 2005
Terrorism and your Investments Seminar
On Friday June 3rd at 7:00 .I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation.
James
James
Thursday, May 12, 2005
in the news this week
After three years of rising federal budget deficits, a surge of April tax receipts brought unexpected good news to fiscal policymakers -- the tide of government red ink appears to be receding. The Treasury Department this week reported there would be a $54 billion swing from projected deficit to surplus in the April-to-June quarter, after an unanticipated gush of tax payments poured into the Treasury before the April 15 deadline. That prompted private forecasters to lower their deficit projections for the fiscal year that ends in September.(Washington Post)
Up and down Wall Street yesterday, the refrain on trading desks was: Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing (in GM). (WSJ)
International Business Machines Corp., stung by weak financial results, will take a pretax charge of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion to cut jobs and restructure operations, primarily in Western Europe….IBM also signaled that it would turn its focus increasingly toward the lower-cost, higher-growth markets of Eastern Europe. "That clearly is the direction in which IBM should be going," said Bob Djurdjevic, an analyst at Annex Research in Phoenix. "These countries have barely been touched by" information technology. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON — The U.S. government has opened a criminal inquiry into suspected embezzlement by officials who failed to account for almost $100 million they disbursed for Iraqi reconstruction projects, federal investigators said Wednesday. (LA Times)
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has expressed "grave and growing concerns about the credibility and independence" of the U.N.'s inquiry, led by Volcker; and he has complained loudly about Volcker's refusal to let Parton and a second investigator cooperate with various congressional committees. (CNS.NEWS)
UNITED NATIONS - Two well-known European supporters of Saddam Hussein received large quantities of oil allocations in a bribery scheme devised under the oil-for-food program to gain political influence, according to a Senate report released yesterday. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - The United Nations is investigating whether a senior official at one of its agencies, Justin Leites, violated U.N. rules and the organization's spirit of international neutrality by taking a paid leave of absence last year to work as a Kerry-Edwards presidential campaign official in his home state of Maine.(NY SUN)
"If there is no progress, we have to think of other options, such as taking this matter to the United Nations Security Council." (Nobutaka Machimura The Japanese foreign minister threatened on Friday to purse the North Korean nuclear weapons program before the U.N. Security Council next month unless six-nation talks on the dispute show progress.)
UN nuclear watchdog Chief Mohammed ElBaradei has told US television his agency estimates that North Korea could have up to six nuclear weapons. (BBC)
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day on concern refiners in the U.S. and Europe will struggle to produce enough gasoline and diesel to meet rising demand.
May 11 (Bloomberg)-- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in half a year, as imports of consumer goods fell and exports grew to a record. The deficit dropped 9.2 percent from an all-time high of $60.6 billion in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists called for a deficit of $61.9 billion.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. employers created far more jobs in April than Wall Street expected, suggesting the economy may be regaining speed after hitting a "soft patch" in the first three months of the year. Non-farm payrolls grew by a robust 274,000 last month -- nearly a 100,000 more than financial markets expected, the Labor Department said Friday. The department also said employers created 93,000 more non-farm jobs in March and February, raising the monthly average for the year so far to a healthy 211,000. (WSJ)
The AARP is spending its members' money on opposing personal Social Security accounts, even though the accounts wouldn't affect most of the AARP's current members, who are too old to be affected by the policy changes. Most of the organization's members joined the AARP for discounts at hotels and on insurance, not to fund a lobbying campaign against President Bush's domestic agenda of putting their children's and grandchildren's retirement on a sounder financial footing. In an era with a renewed focus on boards' responsiveness to shareholders, it can't be long before some enterprising regulator, lawyer, or member-activist takes a careful look at what the AARP's self-perpetuating board has been up to in the name of the 35 million members that the group claims to represent (NY SUN)
``This is a case about mutual funds,'' Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson declared simply as he began describing the charges against Theodore Sihpol III, a former broker at Bank of America. (Bloomberg)
``You will see that this defendant, Theodore Sihpol III, motivated by financial gain and to aid and abet a hedge fund to make millions of dollars, intentionally and continually subverted the notion of mutuality.'' (Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson)'
To get a sense of how much prices might drop, check out the early 1990s performance of two of today's hotter (real-estate) markets, Boston and Los Angeles. According to Freddie Mac, prices in the greater Boston area sank 10% during the 30 months through mid-1992, while Los Angeles was hit with a grueling six-year 21% decline. (WSJ)
Up and down Wall Street yesterday, the refrain on trading desks was: Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing (in GM). (WSJ)
International Business Machines Corp., stung by weak financial results, will take a pretax charge of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion to cut jobs and restructure operations, primarily in Western Europe….IBM also signaled that it would turn its focus increasingly toward the lower-cost, higher-growth markets of Eastern Europe. "That clearly is the direction in which IBM should be going," said Bob Djurdjevic, an analyst at Annex Research in Phoenix. "These countries have barely been touched by" information technology. (WSJ)
WASHINGTON — The U.S. government has opened a criminal inquiry into suspected embezzlement by officials who failed to account for almost $100 million they disbursed for Iraqi reconstruction projects, federal investigators said Wednesday. (LA Times)
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has expressed "grave and growing concerns about the credibility and independence" of the U.N.'s inquiry, led by Volcker; and he has complained loudly about Volcker's refusal to let Parton and a second investigator cooperate with various congressional committees. (CNS.NEWS)
UNITED NATIONS - Two well-known European supporters of Saddam Hussein received large quantities of oil allocations in a bribery scheme devised under the oil-for-food program to gain political influence, according to a Senate report released yesterday. (NY SUN)
UNITED NATIONS - The United Nations is investigating whether a senior official at one of its agencies, Justin Leites, violated U.N. rules and the organization's spirit of international neutrality by taking a paid leave of absence last year to work as a Kerry-Edwards presidential campaign official in his home state of Maine.(NY SUN)
"If there is no progress, we have to think of other options, such as taking this matter to the United Nations Security Council." (Nobutaka Machimura The Japanese foreign minister threatened on Friday to purse the North Korean nuclear weapons program before the U.N. Security Council next month unless six-nation talks on the dispute show progress.)
UN nuclear watchdog Chief Mohammed ElBaradei has told US television his agency estimates that North Korea could have up to six nuclear weapons. (BBC)
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day on concern refiners in the U.S. and Europe will struggle to produce enough gasoline and diesel to meet rising demand.
May 11 (Bloomberg)-- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in half a year, as imports of consumer goods fell and exports grew to a record. The deficit dropped 9.2 percent from an all-time high of $60.6 billion in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists called for a deficit of $61.9 billion.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. employers created far more jobs in April than Wall Street expected, suggesting the economy may be regaining speed after hitting a "soft patch" in the first three months of the year. Non-farm payrolls grew by a robust 274,000 last month -- nearly a 100,000 more than financial markets expected, the Labor Department said Friday. The department also said employers created 93,000 more non-farm jobs in March and February, raising the monthly average for the year so far to a healthy 211,000. (WSJ)
The AARP is spending its members' money on opposing personal Social Security accounts, even though the accounts wouldn't affect most of the AARP's current members, who are too old to be affected by the policy changes. Most of the organization's members joined the AARP for discounts at hotels and on insurance, not to fund a lobbying campaign against President Bush's domestic agenda of putting their children's and grandchildren's retirement on a sounder financial footing. In an era with a renewed focus on boards' responsiveness to shareholders, it can't be long before some enterprising regulator, lawyer, or member-activist takes a careful look at what the AARP's self-perpetuating board has been up to in the name of the 35 million members that the group claims to represent (NY SUN)
``This is a case about mutual funds,'' Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson declared simply as he began describing the charges against Theodore Sihpol III, a former broker at Bank of America. (Bloomberg)
``You will see that this defendant, Theodore Sihpol III, motivated by financial gain and to aid and abet a hedge fund to make millions of dollars, intentionally and continually subverted the notion of mutuality.'' (Assistant Attorney General Harold J. Wilson)'
To get a sense of how much prices might drop, check out the early 1990s performance of two of today's hotter (real-estate) markets, Boston and Los Angeles. According to Freddie Mac, prices in the greater Boston area sank 10% during the 30 months through mid-1992, while Los Angeles was hit with a grueling six-year 21% decline. (WSJ)
Kirk Kerkorian must see something that we have been missing
May 6,2005
Hello,
So did he get a “bloody Nose” or is the Anti-Bush Mainstream Media just a bunch of sore losers. Tony Blair’s victory signals nothing more than a resounding support for his policies. Without sounding like I am stating the obvious, the Party that picked up the most seats from Labor was the “Torries ,the party of Margaret Thatcher ”, in the US we would call them the “Conservatives” who were strongly in support of the War on Terror, are free market oriented and very suspicious of continental Europe. What should be gleaned form Prime Minister Blair’s victory is perhaps he wasn’t strong enough. The number one issue In Brittan was immigration, immigration, immigration! Listen up everyone, immigration! I said immigration……
The market continues its final shake down. I am just waiting for everyone to call and say no more stocks; I am going into real-estate because “I can’t lose any money.” That’s the buy signal I am waiting for. The real-estate investor is sounding like Tech investors in the late 1990’s to me.
The interesting thing is that there are so many takeovers, and stock buys backs going on. One can only conclude is that the people with the big money think the market is cheap no matter what they say. We are seeing the return of the LBO, merger mania and perhaps the dreaded “green mail”. Again I say what does Kirk Kerkorian know that we don’t .Those of you who do not know who he is simply google his name and think Chrysler 1980’s.
Will GM survive? GM has been over do for structural changes for some time, like 30 years, well hope springs eternal. Ah those pension plans GM, American Airlines and so on be wary they are based on the same “ponzi” principle that social security is based on. Be fore warned the same will happen to all “pensions” eventually. There is an inherent flaw in there design. The flaw of paying current retirees with current workers contributions will fail because of increases in productivity, changes in demographics and shifts in industrial development. Market based 401k’s type plans are the way of the future and of the present. The obsolete pension obligations of the past are creating a huge burden for tax payers and consumers. Is anybody listening?
Oil may not be as big of a deal as we all have been led to believe. Seems that in 1980 we spent 7% of our income on fuel and currently we spend 3%. Each dollar of GDP takes 50% less oil to create than in 1980. Perhaps high oil prices are more a measure of geopolitical uncertainty than a harbinger of economic slow down.
Lots of talk this week about the “Nuclear Option”, who will use is first, the Senate, the UN, North Korea, Iran , Al Qaida or George Bush either way it looks like we are in for some fireworks the next couple of months, which should add some volatility to the mix while the market finds its bottom.
I will be traveling next week on business ,to Berlin (Germany not Vermont or Conneticut)from the 13th to the 19th .On Friday May 20th I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation .
James
Hello,
So did he get a “bloody Nose” or is the Anti-Bush Mainstream Media just a bunch of sore losers. Tony Blair’s victory signals nothing more than a resounding support for his policies. Without sounding like I am stating the obvious, the Party that picked up the most seats from Labor was the “Torries ,the party of Margaret Thatcher ”, in the US we would call them the “Conservatives” who were strongly in support of the War on Terror, are free market oriented and very suspicious of continental Europe. What should be gleaned form Prime Minister Blair’s victory is perhaps he wasn’t strong enough. The number one issue In Brittan was immigration, immigration, immigration! Listen up everyone, immigration! I said immigration……
The market continues its final shake down. I am just waiting for everyone to call and say no more stocks; I am going into real-estate because “I can’t lose any money.” That’s the buy signal I am waiting for. The real-estate investor is sounding like Tech investors in the late 1990’s to me.
The interesting thing is that there are so many takeovers, and stock buys backs going on. One can only conclude is that the people with the big money think the market is cheap no matter what they say. We are seeing the return of the LBO, merger mania and perhaps the dreaded “green mail”. Again I say what does Kirk Kerkorian know that we don’t .Those of you who do not know who he is simply google his name and think Chrysler 1980’s.
Will GM survive? GM has been over do for structural changes for some time, like 30 years, well hope springs eternal. Ah those pension plans GM, American Airlines and so on be wary they are based on the same “ponzi” principle that social security is based on. Be fore warned the same will happen to all “pensions” eventually. There is an inherent flaw in there design. The flaw of paying current retirees with current workers contributions will fail because of increases in productivity, changes in demographics and shifts in industrial development. Market based 401k’s type plans are the way of the future and of the present. The obsolete pension obligations of the past are creating a huge burden for tax payers and consumers. Is anybody listening?
Oil may not be as big of a deal as we all have been led to believe. Seems that in 1980 we spent 7% of our income on fuel and currently we spend 3%. Each dollar of GDP takes 50% less oil to create than in 1980. Perhaps high oil prices are more a measure of geopolitical uncertainty than a harbinger of economic slow down.
Lots of talk this week about the “Nuclear Option”, who will use is first, the Senate, the UN, North Korea, Iran , Al Qaida or George Bush either way it looks like we are in for some fireworks the next couple of months, which should add some volatility to the mix while the market finds its bottom.
I will be traveling next week on business ,to Berlin (Germany not Vermont or Conneticut)from the 13th to the 19th .On Friday May 20th I will be conducting a seminar in the early evening at “Westfield Avenue Cigars” 17 West Westfield Ave ,Roselle Park NJ 07204, (908) 241-1140 on how terrorism effects your investments. Stop in for a smoke and some wide open conversation .
James
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
in the news..
If you listen too hard to pessimistic pundits, you can get all lathered up over the risks of stagflation - slower growth and higher prices. Don't go there. This is not the 1970s. Money is sounder, tax rates are lower, productivity and profits are much higher, and world trade is more open. Today's technology-streamlined and deregulated economy is not inflation-prone. (Larry Kudlow, NY SUN)
A major study by the National Association of Manufacturers in 2003 showed that even during the most recent recession, 80% of manufacturers had a moderate to serious shortage of production workers, machinists and craftworkers. The group predicts that manufacturers will need as many as 10 million new skilled workers by 2020, in part to replace the aging boomers who make up a large part of the 14 million manufacturing jobs today. (WSJ)
SEATTLE -- As Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) prepares to release the next generation of its Xbox gaming console in several weeks, Chairman Bill Gates said he believes the company is in a position to compete for the No. 1 spot with Sony Corp. (SNE) and its Playstation franchise. (WSJ)
In a recent interview, General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for forgiveness toward the people who have harbored and abetted the terrorists who perpetrated the 9/11 attacks on America. His answer was classic Schwartzkopf. The General said, “I believe that forgiving them is God's function. OUR job is to arrange the meeting."
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea Monday that the U.S. had "significant" capability in the Pacific region to deter the Stalinist state's nuclear ambitions.
North Korea, meanwhile, denounced President Bush on Saturday as a "hooligan" and said it doesn't expect a solution to the standoff over its nuclear program during his tenure. The escalating rhetoric was followed Sunday by a test-firing of a North Korean short-range missile into the Sea of Japan (PJStar.com)
WASHINGTON – Former CIA chief James Woolsey affirms the work of a special commission investigating the threat of a nuclear-bomb generated electromagnetic pulse attack on the U.S. by rogue states or terrorists and is urging the country to take steps necessary to protect against the potentially devastating consequences. (By Joseph Farah WorldNetDaily.com)
Affirmative action produces no concrete benefits for minority students and actually has several harmful effects, according to a new report by the Cato Institute.” Recent research shows that college admissions preferences do not offer even the practical benefits claimed by their supporters," writes Marie Gryphon, a lawyer and policy analyst with the Cato Institute's Center for Educational Freedom. (NEWS MAX)
Mr. Volcker's weekend phone calls did not sit well with legislators. "We should have an opportunity to talk" to the two investigators, Senator Coleman, a Republican of Minnesota, told CNN yesterday. "I am very disturbed that they [the United Nations] assert some kind of immunity." (BENNY AVNI, NY SUN)
A US senator who has repeatedly called for the resignation of UN chief Kofi Annan over the Iraq oil-for-food scandal has raised the prospect that tapes may exist directly implicating the Secretary-General in wrongdoing. (David Nason, the Australian)
Charles Pasqua,( Union for Europe of the Nations Group, Chairman) a former French minister of interior, has emerged as one of the highest-ranking targets of the widening investigations into the Iraq oil-for-food scandal, writes Claudio Gatti. (FT)
The deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmoud Al-Sayyid Ahmad Al-Habib, made a similar appearance on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV, on April 8, 2004, and said, "The truth is that the resistance, whether in Iraq or in Palestine ... defends the nation's honor ... Therefore, the issue ... martyrdom (i.e., suicide) operations carried out by boys and girls, and also the operations carried out by the Iraqi resistance - these redeem self-confidence and hope, because a nation that does not excel at the industry of death does not deserve life." (NY SUN)
CAIRO, Egypt -- Followers of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would attack the White House or the Vatican if their leader chooses to target those sites, the al-Qaida in Iraq's deputy chief purportedly said in an Internet statement posted Monday. The written statement, signed in the name of Abu Abdel-Rahman al-Iraqi, also threatened to attack Iraqi security forces and officials, including incoming Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite Muslim. (NEWS MAX)
A major study by the National Association of Manufacturers in 2003 showed that even during the most recent recession, 80% of manufacturers had a moderate to serious shortage of production workers, machinists and craftworkers. The group predicts that manufacturers will need as many as 10 million new skilled workers by 2020, in part to replace the aging boomers who make up a large part of the 14 million manufacturing jobs today. (WSJ)
SEATTLE -- As Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) prepares to release the next generation of its Xbox gaming console in several weeks, Chairman Bill Gates said he believes the company is in a position to compete for the No. 1 spot with Sony Corp. (SNE) and its Playstation franchise. (WSJ)
In a recent interview, General Norman Schwartzkopf was asked if he thought there was room for forgiveness toward the people who have harbored and abetted the terrorists who perpetrated the 9/11 attacks on America. His answer was classic Schwartzkopf. The General said, “I believe that forgiving them is God's function. OUR job is to arrange the meeting."
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea Monday that the U.S. had "significant" capability in the Pacific region to deter the Stalinist state's nuclear ambitions.
North Korea, meanwhile, denounced President Bush on Saturday as a "hooligan" and said it doesn't expect a solution to the standoff over its nuclear program during his tenure. The escalating rhetoric was followed Sunday by a test-firing of a North Korean short-range missile into the Sea of Japan (PJStar.com)
WASHINGTON – Former CIA chief James Woolsey affirms the work of a special commission investigating the threat of a nuclear-bomb generated electromagnetic pulse attack on the U.S. by rogue states or terrorists and is urging the country to take steps necessary to protect against the potentially devastating consequences. (By Joseph Farah WorldNetDaily.com)
Affirmative action produces no concrete benefits for minority students and actually has several harmful effects, according to a new report by the Cato Institute.” Recent research shows that college admissions preferences do not offer even the practical benefits claimed by their supporters," writes Marie Gryphon, a lawyer and policy analyst with the Cato Institute's Center for Educational Freedom. (NEWS MAX)
Mr. Volcker's weekend phone calls did not sit well with legislators. "We should have an opportunity to talk" to the two investigators, Senator Coleman, a Republican of Minnesota, told CNN yesterday. "I am very disturbed that they [the United Nations] assert some kind of immunity." (BENNY AVNI, NY SUN)
A US senator who has repeatedly called for the resignation of UN chief Kofi Annan over the Iraq oil-for-food scandal has raised the prospect that tapes may exist directly implicating the Secretary-General in wrongdoing. (David Nason, the Australian)
Charles Pasqua,( Union for Europe of the Nations Group, Chairman) a former French minister of interior, has emerged as one of the highest-ranking targets of the widening investigations into the Iraq oil-for-food scandal, writes Claudio Gatti. (FT)
The deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mahmoud Al-Sayyid Ahmad Al-Habib, made a similar appearance on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV, on April 8, 2004, and said, "The truth is that the resistance, whether in Iraq or in Palestine ... defends the nation's honor ... Therefore, the issue ... martyrdom (i.e., suicide) operations carried out by boys and girls, and also the operations carried out by the Iraqi resistance - these redeem self-confidence and hope, because a nation that does not excel at the industry of death does not deserve life." (NY SUN)
CAIRO, Egypt -- Followers of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would attack the White House or the Vatican if their leader chooses to target those sites, the al-Qaida in Iraq's deputy chief purportedly said in an Internet statement posted Monday. The written statement, signed in the name of Abu Abdel-Rahman al-Iraqi, also threatened to attack Iraqi security forces and officials, including incoming Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite Muslim. (NEWS MAX)
run away bride......
May 3,2005
James
Will the FED start to single it is winding down it’s interest rate increases. The continued good performance of utility stocks would suggest the end of the rate raise is in sight and perhaps inflation is much tamer than we all have been led to believe. Utilities historical have traded well in a declining interest rate or flat interest rate environments. The pundit’s continue to be wrong on every issue. The current thinking is “how can the FED curb raising inflation in a slowing economy with out slowing the economy further”. My view is vastly different, the current slow down is more seasonal than fundamental. The summer brings us longer days, baseball, golf, lots of vacations, BBQ’s and good times with friends and family. There is always, I repeat always a bit of and economic slowdown during the spring and summer months because individuals and businesses enjoy the weather and put off major purchases till the fall. The annalists and the pundit’s seize on the summer doldrums as proof of our of our very destruction, speculating that the fall of western civilization is upon us do to out decadent lifestyle, but alas the season changes and the economic cycle will breed anew. The second issue of growing inflation is simply nonsense. What’s interesting is that the dollar is now rising against most major currencies; inflation would have the entirely opposite effect. As I have said be for the FED flooded the US economy with liquidity in an attempt to avoid a great depression style deflationary spiral. As the fears of deflation have abated the FED began to tighten up the reins. What you’re seeing is the liquidity bubbling up into the economy causing the inflation rate to go from negative to a slight positive. The inflation rate remains low and if not for higher energy prices the rate would be almost nonexistent. Forget all this ridiculous talk of stagflation. For those of you lucky enough not to remember stagflation was a economic period in the late 1970’s during the Carter Administration .Inflation and interest rates were in the 20% level, unemployment was climbing to well over the current levels at 7.7%, GDP growth was under 1% .Basically there was no growth and very high inflation and high unemployment, a very different story from today’s GDP growth rate of 3.1%, barley 3% interest rates and 5.4% unemployment.
James
James
Will the FED start to single it is winding down it’s interest rate increases. The continued good performance of utility stocks would suggest the end of the rate raise is in sight and perhaps inflation is much tamer than we all have been led to believe. Utilities historical have traded well in a declining interest rate or flat interest rate environments. The pundit’s continue to be wrong on every issue. The current thinking is “how can the FED curb raising inflation in a slowing economy with out slowing the economy further”. My view is vastly different, the current slow down is more seasonal than fundamental. The summer brings us longer days, baseball, golf, lots of vacations, BBQ’s and good times with friends and family. There is always, I repeat always a bit of and economic slowdown during the spring and summer months because individuals and businesses enjoy the weather and put off major purchases till the fall. The annalists and the pundit’s seize on the summer doldrums as proof of our of our very destruction, speculating that the fall of western civilization is upon us do to out decadent lifestyle, but alas the season changes and the economic cycle will breed anew. The second issue of growing inflation is simply nonsense. What’s interesting is that the dollar is now rising against most major currencies; inflation would have the entirely opposite effect. As I have said be for the FED flooded the US economy with liquidity in an attempt to avoid a great depression style deflationary spiral. As the fears of deflation have abated the FED began to tighten up the reins. What you’re seeing is the liquidity bubbling up into the economy causing the inflation rate to go from negative to a slight positive. The inflation rate remains low and if not for higher energy prices the rate would be almost nonexistent. Forget all this ridiculous talk of stagflation. For those of you lucky enough not to remember stagflation was a economic period in the late 1970’s during the Carter Administration .Inflation and interest rates were in the 20% level, unemployment was climbing to well over the current levels at 7.7%, GDP growth was under 1% .Basically there was no growth and very high inflation and high unemployment, a very different story from today’s GDP growth rate of 3.1%, barley 3% interest rates and 5.4% unemployment.
James
Monday, May 02, 2005
in the news
The U.S. has quietly warned China that North Korea could be preparing for a nuclear-weapons test and asked the Chinese to urge Pyongyang to desist, according to a U.S. official. (Matt Drudge)
Europe, the new Pope has written, “appears to be at the start of its decline and fall.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
In choosing Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger to succeed Pope John Paul II as Pope Benedict XVI, the Catholic Church has cast a vote for the survival of Europe and the West. “Europe will be Islamic by the end of the century,” historian Bernard Lewis predicted not long ago; however, judging from the writings of the new Pope, he is not likely to be sanguine about this transition. For one thing, the new Pope seems to be aware of the grave danger Europeans face: he has called upon Europe to recover its Christian roots “if it truly wants to survive.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
Tehran, Apr. 20 – Iran’s southern Khuzestan province was the scene of further chaos today as another round of fierce fighting erupted between people and government forces, following severe clashes several days ago which left dozens dead and hundreds wounded or arrested. The latest clashes broke out this morning between Iran’s State Security Forces (SSF) and local residents in several districts of the city of Ahwaz, including Kut Abdullah, Kian and Khashayar. (IRAN FOCUS)
TEHRAN, April 21 (Reuters) - Around 400 volunteers signed up in Tehran to sacrifice their lives in "occupied Islamic countries" on Wednesday night, inspired by a fatwa from a top hardline cleric giving religious backing to suicide missions.
"Two hundred out of 344 arrested people have been released," Amir Khani, state prosecutor in Khuzestan's capital Ahwaz, said on Wednesday. "The rest could be released on bail if their families pay. The main people responsible for the disorder number at least 10, and they will be strongly confronted by the judiciary. "During the violence, which began on Friday and continued until Sunday, groups of Iranian-Arabs smashed and set fire to police cars, banks and government offices and clashed with security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. (Ethnic unrest broke out in mainly Arab Khuzestan region on Friday Aljazeera.net)
PARIS – Saudi Arabia, facing mounting pressure from the U.S. and others to step up output of oil and gas amid a surge in prices, plans to more than double its investment in energy development to $50 billion in the next five years from the previous five-year period. (WSJ)
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said China will unpeg its currency from the dollar "sooner rather than later" because the policy poses a growing threat to China's own economy. (WSJ)
For the past few weeks, stocks have been in a pattern of sharp bounces after steep declines, said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. In April, however, Fridays have been lethal for stocks. Blue chips have declined sharply in the three previous Fridays this month, for a total loss of 353.37 points. The month of April is on track to be one of the worst in 35 years if the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses 30 points today. (WSJ)
UNITED NATIONS — Paul Volcker (search) told FOX News his committee isn't going soft on U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in the Oil-for-Food investigation and denies that there was any conflict of interest over his link to a U.N. official being questioned in the probe (FOX NEWS)
NEW YORK — A former senior investigator from the independent probe into allegations of corruption in the U.N. Oil-for-Food (search) program confirmed Saturday that he had resigned to protest a report clearing U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan of meddling in the operation. (FOX NEWS)
"I said to him the other day, 'George, if you really want to end tyranny in this world, you're going to have to stay up later,"' Laura Bush said. "Nine o'clock and Mr. Excitement here is in bed, and I am watching 'Desperate Housewives' -- with Lynne Cheney. Ladies and gentlemen, I am a desperate housewife." (First Lady Laura Bush)
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett said he maintained a more than $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar even after it cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million the first quarter.
Europe, the new Pope has written, “appears to be at the start of its decline and fall.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
In choosing Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger to succeed Pope John Paul II as Pope Benedict XVI, the Catholic Church has cast a vote for the survival of Europe and the West. “Europe will be Islamic by the end of the century,” historian Bernard Lewis predicted not long ago; however, judging from the writings of the new Pope, he is not likely to be sanguine about this transition. For one thing, the new Pope seems to be aware of the grave danger Europeans face: he has called upon Europe to recover its Christian roots “if it truly wants to survive.” (FRONTPAGEMAG.COM)
Tehran, Apr. 20 – Iran’s southern Khuzestan province was the scene of further chaos today as another round of fierce fighting erupted between people and government forces, following severe clashes several days ago which left dozens dead and hundreds wounded or arrested. The latest clashes broke out this morning between Iran’s State Security Forces (SSF) and local residents in several districts of the city of Ahwaz, including Kut Abdullah, Kian and Khashayar. (IRAN FOCUS)
TEHRAN, April 21 (Reuters) - Around 400 volunteers signed up in Tehran to sacrifice their lives in "occupied Islamic countries" on Wednesday night, inspired by a fatwa from a top hardline cleric giving religious backing to suicide missions.
"Two hundred out of 344 arrested people have been released," Amir Khani, state prosecutor in Khuzestan's capital Ahwaz, said on Wednesday. "The rest could be released on bail if their families pay. The main people responsible for the disorder number at least 10, and they will be strongly confronted by the judiciary. "During the violence, which began on Friday and continued until Sunday, groups of Iranian-Arabs smashed and set fire to police cars, banks and government offices and clashed with security forces who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. (Ethnic unrest broke out in mainly Arab Khuzestan region on Friday Aljazeera.net)
PARIS – Saudi Arabia, facing mounting pressure from the U.S. and others to step up output of oil and gas amid a surge in prices, plans to more than double its investment in energy development to $50 billion in the next five years from the previous five-year period. (WSJ)
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said China will unpeg its currency from the dollar "sooner rather than later" because the policy poses a growing threat to China's own economy. (WSJ)
For the past few weeks, stocks have been in a pattern of sharp bounces after steep declines, said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management. In April, however, Fridays have been lethal for stocks. Blue chips have declined sharply in the three previous Fridays this month, for a total loss of 353.37 points. The month of April is on track to be one of the worst in 35 years if the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses 30 points today. (WSJ)
UNITED NATIONS — Paul Volcker (search) told FOX News his committee isn't going soft on U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in the Oil-for-Food investigation and denies that there was any conflict of interest over his link to a U.N. official being questioned in the probe (FOX NEWS)
NEW YORK — A former senior investigator from the independent probe into allegations of corruption in the U.N. Oil-for-Food (search) program confirmed Saturday that he had resigned to protest a report clearing U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan of meddling in the operation. (FOX NEWS)
"I said to him the other day, 'George, if you really want to end tyranny in this world, you're going to have to stay up later,"' Laura Bush said. "Nine o'clock and Mr. Excitement here is in bed, and I am watching 'Desperate Housewives' -- with Lynne Cheney. Ladies and gentlemen, I am a desperate housewife." (First Lady Laura Bush)
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett said he maintained a more than $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar even after it cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million the first quarter.
The Great Crusade
April 21, 2005
Hello,
The Cardinals have made an amazing shrewd choice with the choice of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger .In one move the Cardinals have joined the war on terror and the war against international one world government George Soros socialism. Meanwhile the President did something even more astonishing .Merely by holding hands with a Saudi King oil prices plunged more than 4% and below $50 a barrel for the first time in some time. The gesture sent out a simple message simultaneously reiterating confidence, legitimacy and a special friendship to the Kingdom of Saud and recognition of the law of diminishing returns, were by to high of oil prices lead to permanent conservation which in the long run leads to a decline in oil demand.
As for the market well the choices available may not have the same impact. The energy sectors seems the place to be, with drugs and health care looking to make a come back. What happened last week you ask? A very over extended market to the down side produced what looks to be the signal that that things are going to start moving in a positive direction. Remember the NASDQ is still down over 60% form it’s 2000 highs ,yet earning have increased nearly 50%. The one day burst of 200 plus points to the up side, with advancers out pacing decliners 3-1 and up volume led declining volume 5-1 with very heavy volume. Yes it could be short covering and yes it could be a one up day on the way down but in my view the market has put the brakes on the down ward slide. The follow up rally on Friday April 29th would suggest that this is the beginning of something big. Like I said be fore it still could take some time to build a head of steam.
The market continues to trade like it is looking for the final bottom. It could be several months or a matter of days. In the years since the March 2000 meltdown all the rules have been tossed out the window. We had a prolonged period of low volume sell downs. We have had information and pricing break downs. Then nothing more than a bit of a post 9/11 dead cat bounce. Now the signals of the grand finely are upon us. In a rare occurrence the percent of Bearish Advisors has become greater than the percent of Bullish advisors, in fact Bearish advisors out pace the Bulls by almost 20%, historically that suggest a big rally is coming. Since October of last year we have seen an unprecedented amount of corporate repurchasing of there own company stock. Also signaling that there are good value’s out there is the reigniting of corporate takeovers and mergers. We are all just so glum. Lots bad economic data followed by lots good data, but lets face it with a GDP growth rate of 3.1% ,home ownership at a record high, and an unemployment rate of 5.3% it is simply impossible to make a historical negative argument. The Facts just get in the way. Especially given Europe and Japan’s GDP for sometime have been growing at less then 1% and Europe’s unemployment rate hovers near 11%, with trade and budget deficits comparable to ours. Perhaps it may take tax refunds or the rumor that Microsoft is beginning to see the light on some new grand technology. It seems all we need is a little exuberance irrational or otherwise to get this thing going.
James
Hello,
The Cardinals have made an amazing shrewd choice with the choice of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger .In one move the Cardinals have joined the war on terror and the war against international one world government George Soros socialism. Meanwhile the President did something even more astonishing .Merely by holding hands with a Saudi King oil prices plunged more than 4% and below $50 a barrel for the first time in some time. The gesture sent out a simple message simultaneously reiterating confidence, legitimacy and a special friendship to the Kingdom of Saud and recognition of the law of diminishing returns, were by to high of oil prices lead to permanent conservation which in the long run leads to a decline in oil demand.
As for the market well the choices available may not have the same impact. The energy sectors seems the place to be, with drugs and health care looking to make a come back. What happened last week you ask? A very over extended market to the down side produced what looks to be the signal that that things are going to start moving in a positive direction. Remember the NASDQ is still down over 60% form it’s 2000 highs ,yet earning have increased nearly 50%. The one day burst of 200 plus points to the up side, with advancers out pacing decliners 3-1 and up volume led declining volume 5-1 with very heavy volume. Yes it could be short covering and yes it could be a one up day on the way down but in my view the market has put the brakes on the down ward slide. The follow up rally on Friday April 29th would suggest that this is the beginning of something big. Like I said be fore it still could take some time to build a head of steam.
The market continues to trade like it is looking for the final bottom. It could be several months or a matter of days. In the years since the March 2000 meltdown all the rules have been tossed out the window. We had a prolonged period of low volume sell downs. We have had information and pricing break downs. Then nothing more than a bit of a post 9/11 dead cat bounce. Now the signals of the grand finely are upon us. In a rare occurrence the percent of Bearish Advisors has become greater than the percent of Bullish advisors, in fact Bearish advisors out pace the Bulls by almost 20%, historically that suggest a big rally is coming. Since October of last year we have seen an unprecedented amount of corporate repurchasing of there own company stock. Also signaling that there are good value’s out there is the reigniting of corporate takeovers and mergers. We are all just so glum. Lots bad economic data followed by lots good data, but lets face it with a GDP growth rate of 3.1% ,home ownership at a record high, and an unemployment rate of 5.3% it is simply impossible to make a historical negative argument. The Facts just get in the way. Especially given Europe and Japan’s GDP for sometime have been growing at less then 1% and Europe’s unemployment rate hovers near 11%, with trade and budget deficits comparable to ours. Perhaps it may take tax refunds or the rumor that Microsoft is beginning to see the light on some new grand technology. It seems all we need is a little exuberance irrational or otherwise to get this thing going.
James
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