Give us your poor your weak ,your hungry your hudled masses and your sub prime lenders….consenious builds for government bailout for the sub prime mess far be it for me to rain on anyones parade but isnt this just warehousing bad loans similar to Japan did in the late 1980’s and is still paying the cost for to day ?....yikes!
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Monday, December 03, 2007
Bottom for the US Dollar?
Hip Hop Videos ,Super Models not wanted to get paid in dollars ,crazy 3rd world dictators looking to price oil in other currencies…if that dosnt signal a bottom in the dollar I don’t know what does.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
the wizards of wall street and their black boxes
November 27,2007
Hello,
The continued down draft in the market makes me wonder if it’s not something else other than recession fears, the market action is looking more “9/11” than it is recession. My guess is keep on the look out for some kind or a major blow to the financial system.
The stock market is a market of extremes, we go from very over bought to very over sold, but when it comes to financials and a crisis in confidence in the banking system the extremes are even more extreme. So look for 12600 to 12500 for the DOWJONES on the down side.
Like Portfolio insurance before the sub-prime crisis is manufactured by the wizards of wall street and their black boxes. Unfortunately no black box despite vast amounts of human hubris contains all possibilities. Couple this fallacy with government appointed bureaucrats who are more political appointees than market experts and a congress that wouldn’t know a balance sheet from a racing form and you have a crisis in the making. So you say why now people have been warning about GSE’s for so long and nothing has happened? Perhaps the super hot real estate ie.. mortgage market of the early part of this decade put us over the top and created events that even the most water tight “black box” sprung a leak or perhaps its just a confluence of many factors that are creating a “perfect storm” environment.
My view is simple: there is no recession nor is one coming, the consumer will not slow as long as jobs are plentiful and interest rates and inflation remain low .Only a financial calamity will put us over the top and wreck this economy. However the wizards and their black boxes may have really made a mess of banking confidence for some time to come and that could spill over into the economy as a whole by seizing up credit markets. For those with strong wills and cold hearts this could present some of the best buying opportunities in financial stocks since the early 1990’s.
James J Foytlin
Hello,
The continued down draft in the market makes me wonder if it’s not something else other than recession fears, the market action is looking more “9/11” than it is recession. My guess is keep on the look out for some kind or a major blow to the financial system.
The stock market is a market of extremes, we go from very over bought to very over sold, but when it comes to financials and a crisis in confidence in the banking system the extremes are even more extreme. So look for 12600 to 12500 for the DOWJONES on the down side.
Like Portfolio insurance before the sub-prime crisis is manufactured by the wizards of wall street and their black boxes. Unfortunately no black box despite vast amounts of human hubris contains all possibilities. Couple this fallacy with government appointed bureaucrats who are more political appointees than market experts and a congress that wouldn’t know a balance sheet from a racing form and you have a crisis in the making. So you say why now people have been warning about GSE’s for so long and nothing has happened? Perhaps the super hot real estate ie.. mortgage market of the early part of this decade put us over the top and created events that even the most water tight “black box” sprung a leak or perhaps its just a confluence of many factors that are creating a “perfect storm” environment.
My view is simple: there is no recession nor is one coming, the consumer will not slow as long as jobs are plentiful and interest rates and inflation remain low .Only a financial calamity will put us over the top and wreck this economy. However the wizards and their black boxes may have really made a mess of banking confidence for some time to come and that could spill over into the economy as a whole by seizing up credit markets. For those with strong wills and cold hearts this could present some of the best buying opportunities in financial stocks since the early 1990’s.
James J Foytlin
Monday, November 26, 2007
crisis in confidence
The stock market is a market of extremes, we go from very over bought to very over sold, but when it comes to financials and a crisis in confidence in the banking system the extremes are even more extreme . Look for 12600 to 12500 for the DOWJONES on the down side .
on the positive ;
Retails sales rose 8% on Black Friday hardly bleak I would suggest.
on the positive ;
Retails sales rose 8% on Black Friday hardly bleak I would suggest.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
fly the friendly skys
with record numbers of americans flying this weekend
its hard for me to believe we are in or heading into a recession?
and just incase you havnt heard a lower US dollar is good for exports...
Happy Thanksgiving! : The Great Thanksgiving Hoax
The Great Thanksgiving Hoax
By Richard J. Maybury
Posted on 11/20/1999
Each year at this time school children all over America are taught the official Thanksgiving story, and newspapers, radio, TV, and magazines devote vast amounts of time and space to it. It is all very colorful and fascinating.
It is also very deceiving. This official story is nothing like what really happened. It is a fairy tale, a whitewashed and sanitized collection of half-truths which divert attention away from Thanksgiving's real meaning.
The official story has the pilgrims boarding the Mayflower, coming to America and establishing the Plymouth colony in the winter of 1620-21. This first winter is hard, and half the colonists die. But the survivors are hard working and tenacious, and they learn new farming techniques from the Indians. The harvest of 1621 is bountiful. The Pilgrims hold a celebration, and give thanks to God. They are grateful for the wonderful new abundant land He has given them.
The official story then has the Pilgrims living more or less happily ever after, each year repeating the first Thanksgiving. Other early colonies also have hard times at first, but they soon prosper and adopt the annual tradition of giving thanks for this prosperous new land called America.
The problem with this official story is that the harvest of 1621 was not bountiful, nor were the colonists hardworking or tenacious. 1621 was a famine year and many of the colonists were lazy thieves.
In his 'History of Plymouth Plantation,' the governor of the colony, William Bradford, reported that the colonists went hungry for years, because they refused to work in the fields. They preferred instead to steal food. He says the colony was riddled with "corruption," and with "confusion and discontent." The crops were small because "much was stolen both by night and day, before it became scarce eatable."
In the harvest feasts of 1621 and 1622, "all had their hungry bellies filled," but only briefly. The prevailing condition during those years was not the abundance the official story claims, it was famine and death. The first "Thanksgiving" was not so much a celebration as it was the last meal of condemned men.
But in subsequent years something changes. The harvest of 1623 was different. Suddenly, "instead of famine now God gave them plenty," Bradford wrote, "and the face of things was changed, to the rejoicing of the hearts of many, for which they blessed God." Thereafter, he wrote, "any general want or famine hath not been amongst them since to this day." In fact, in 1624, so much food was produced that the colonists were able to begin exporting corn.
What happened?
After the poor harvest of 1622, writes Bradford, "they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop." They began to question their form of economic organization.
This had required that "all profits & benefits that are got by trade, working, fishing, or any other means" were to be placed in the common stock of the colony, and that, "all such persons as are of this colony, are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock." A person was to put into the common stock all he could, and take out only what he needed.
This "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need" was an early form of socialism, and it is why the Pilgrims were starving. Bradford writes that "young men that are most able and fit for labor and service" complained about being forced to "spend their time and strength to work for other men's wives and children." Also, "the strong, or man of parts, had no more in division of victuals and clothes, than he that was weak." So the young and strong refused to work and the total amount of food produced was never adequate.
To rectify this situation, in 1623 Bradford abolished socialism. He gave each household a parcel of land and told them they could keep what they produced, or trade it away as they saw fit. In other words, he replaced socialism with a free market, and that was the end of famines.
Many early groups of colonists set up socialist states, all with the same terrible results. At Jamestown, established in 1607, out of every shipload of settlers that arrived, less than half would survive their first twelve months in America. Most of the work was being done by only one-fifth of the men, the other four-fifths choosing to be parasites. In the winter of 1609-10, called "The Starving Time," the population fell from five-hundred to sixty.
Then the Jamestown colony was converted to a free market, and the results were every bit as dramatic as those at Plymouth. In 1614, Colony Secretary Ralph Hamor wrote that after the switch there was "plenty of food, which every man by his own industry may easily and doth procure." He said that when the socialist system had prevailed, "we reaped not so much corn from the labors of thirty men as three men have done for themselves now."
Before these free markets were established, the colonists had nothing for which to be thankful. They were in the same situation as Ethiopians are today, and for the same reasons. But after free markets were established, the resulting abundance was so dramatic that the annual Thanksgiving celebrations became common throughout the colonies, and in 1863, Thanksgiving became a national holiday.
Thus the real reason for Thanksgiving, deleted from the official story, is: Socialism does not work; the one and only source of abundance is free markets, and we thank God we live in a country where we can have them.
* * * * *
Mr. Maybury writes on investments.
This article originally appeared in The Free Market, November 1985.
By Richard J. Maybury
Posted on 11/20/1999
Each year at this time school children all over America are taught the official Thanksgiving story, and newspapers, radio, TV, and magazines devote vast amounts of time and space to it. It is all very colorful and fascinating.
It is also very deceiving. This official story is nothing like what really happened. It is a fairy tale, a whitewashed and sanitized collection of half-truths which divert attention away from Thanksgiving's real meaning.
The official story has the pilgrims boarding the Mayflower, coming to America and establishing the Plymouth colony in the winter of 1620-21. This first winter is hard, and half the colonists die. But the survivors are hard working and tenacious, and they learn new farming techniques from the Indians. The harvest of 1621 is bountiful. The Pilgrims hold a celebration, and give thanks to God. They are grateful for the wonderful new abundant land He has given them.
The official story then has the Pilgrims living more or less happily ever after, each year repeating the first Thanksgiving. Other early colonies also have hard times at first, but they soon prosper and adopt the annual tradition of giving thanks for this prosperous new land called America.
The problem with this official story is that the harvest of 1621 was not bountiful, nor were the colonists hardworking or tenacious. 1621 was a famine year and many of the colonists were lazy thieves.
In his 'History of Plymouth Plantation,' the governor of the colony, William Bradford, reported that the colonists went hungry for years, because they refused to work in the fields. They preferred instead to steal food. He says the colony was riddled with "corruption," and with "confusion and discontent." The crops were small because "much was stolen both by night and day, before it became scarce eatable."
In the harvest feasts of 1621 and 1622, "all had their hungry bellies filled," but only briefly. The prevailing condition during those years was not the abundance the official story claims, it was famine and death. The first "Thanksgiving" was not so much a celebration as it was the last meal of condemned men.
But in subsequent years something changes. The harvest of 1623 was different. Suddenly, "instead of famine now God gave them plenty," Bradford wrote, "and the face of things was changed, to the rejoicing of the hearts of many, for which they blessed God." Thereafter, he wrote, "any general want or famine hath not been amongst them since to this day." In fact, in 1624, so much food was produced that the colonists were able to begin exporting corn.
What happened?
After the poor harvest of 1622, writes Bradford, "they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop." They began to question their form of economic organization.
This had required that "all profits & benefits that are got by trade, working, fishing, or any other means" were to be placed in the common stock of the colony, and that, "all such persons as are of this colony, are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock." A person was to put into the common stock all he could, and take out only what he needed.
This "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need" was an early form of socialism, and it is why the Pilgrims were starving. Bradford writes that "young men that are most able and fit for labor and service" complained about being forced to "spend their time and strength to work for other men's wives and children." Also, "the strong, or man of parts, had no more in division of victuals and clothes, than he that was weak." So the young and strong refused to work and the total amount of food produced was never adequate.
To rectify this situation, in 1623 Bradford abolished socialism. He gave each household a parcel of land and told them they could keep what they produced, or trade it away as they saw fit. In other words, he replaced socialism with a free market, and that was the end of famines.
Many early groups of colonists set up socialist states, all with the same terrible results. At Jamestown, established in 1607, out of every shipload of settlers that arrived, less than half would survive their first twelve months in America. Most of the work was being done by only one-fifth of the men, the other four-fifths choosing to be parasites. In the winter of 1609-10, called "The Starving Time," the population fell from five-hundred to sixty.
Then the Jamestown colony was converted to a free market, and the results were every bit as dramatic as those at Plymouth. In 1614, Colony Secretary Ralph Hamor wrote that after the switch there was "plenty of food, which every man by his own industry may easily and doth procure." He said that when the socialist system had prevailed, "we reaped not so much corn from the labors of thirty men as three men have done for themselves now."
Before these free markets were established, the colonists had nothing for which to be thankful. They were in the same situation as Ethiopians are today, and for the same reasons. But after free markets were established, the resulting abundance was so dramatic that the annual Thanksgiving celebrations became common throughout the colonies, and in 1863, Thanksgiving became a national holiday.
Thus the real reason for Thanksgiving, deleted from the official story, is: Socialism does not work; the one and only source of abundance is free markets, and we thank God we live in a country where we can have them.
* * * * *
Mr. Maybury writes on investments.
This article originally appeared in The Free Market, November 1985.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
"kitchen Sink Quarter "
New FASB regulation makes this the "kitchen sink" quarter for executives and their companies.
Monday, November 19, 2007
the market action is looking more “9/11”
The continued down draft in the market makes me wonder if it’s not something else other than recession fears, the market action is looking more “9/11” than it is recession. My guess is keep on the look out for some kind or a major blow to the financial system.
doomsday cult waits for the world to end
November 19, 2007
Hello,
As a Russian doomsday cult waits for the world to end, the US Congress heads home for the Holidays leaving US troops hanging. But Lets face it unemployment is very low, inflation is moderate and interest rates are very low so what gives with all the doom and gloom? One look at mall parking lots and all the traffic jams this weekend would suggest that dreams of a recession may be postponed a little bit longer.
This market continues to be characterized by periods of severe over sold conditions, leading to significant reversals to the upside. There seems to have developed a tolerance to steadily climbing oil prices, but price spikes in the liquid gold continue to bring the house down. Look for a big rally in stocks, oil prices will recede on the expected warmer winter, the dollar will stabilize and China and other emerging markets will decline from an extreme over bought position as inflation begins to pick up. Investors money flows will favor the US and its much undervalued markets, particularly tech and bio tech.
But what out the dollar you ask, once again I repeat the US consumer has carried the world on its back since the early 1980’s. The dollar is transitioning to better position US manufacturing to export to emerging market consumers and the US economy is transitioning back to production from consumption. Its not that the US is going to stop buying things its just that emerging markets growing middle classes are going to consume at the much faster growing pace.
So what’s going on, I am warning of bubbles on one hand and saying buy buy buy on the other hand …Some sectors such as commodities and emerging markets seem very over extended to me for some time,yet no one is talking about it . Sell offs are never predicted by by the main stream press or the pundits ,they generaly appear out of the blue…..
James J Foytlin
Hello,
As a Russian doomsday cult waits for the world to end, the US Congress heads home for the Holidays leaving US troops hanging. But Lets face it unemployment is very low, inflation is moderate and interest rates are very low so what gives with all the doom and gloom? One look at mall parking lots and all the traffic jams this weekend would suggest that dreams of a recession may be postponed a little bit longer.
This market continues to be characterized by periods of severe over sold conditions, leading to significant reversals to the upside. There seems to have developed a tolerance to steadily climbing oil prices, but price spikes in the liquid gold continue to bring the house down. Look for a big rally in stocks, oil prices will recede on the expected warmer winter, the dollar will stabilize and China and other emerging markets will decline from an extreme over bought position as inflation begins to pick up. Investors money flows will favor the US and its much undervalued markets, particularly tech and bio tech.
But what out the dollar you ask, once again I repeat the US consumer has carried the world on its back since the early 1980’s. The dollar is transitioning to better position US manufacturing to export to emerging market consumers and the US economy is transitioning back to production from consumption. Its not that the US is going to stop buying things its just that emerging markets growing middle classes are going to consume at the much faster growing pace.
So what’s going on, I am warning of bubbles on one hand and saying buy buy buy on the other hand …Some sectors such as commodities and emerging markets seem very over extended to me for some time,yet no one is talking about it . Sell offs are never predicted by by the main stream press or the pundits ,they generaly appear out of the blue…..
James J Foytlin
Friday, November 16, 2007
chicken little
can you say chick little ,one look at the traffic tonight near the malls tells me the end of the consumer is not as close as some assume
Thursday, November 15, 2007
no one is talking about it
So what’s going on ,I am warning of bubbles on one hand and saying buy buy buy on the other hand …Some sectors such as commodities and emerging markets seem very over extended to me for some time,yet no one is talking about it . Sell offs are never predicted by by the main stream press or the pundits ,they generaly appear out of the blue…..
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Rejoice in the volatility
This market continues to be characterized by periods of severe over sold conditions, leading to significant reversals to the upside.. There seems to have developed a tolerance to climbing oil prices, but price spikes in the liquid gold continue to bring the house down. Look for a big rally in stocks, oil prices will recede on the expected warmer winter, the dollar will begin a slow accent and China and other emerging markets will decline from an extreme over bought position as inflation begins to pick up. Investors money flows will favor the US and its much undervalued markets, particularly tech and bio tech. It may be sustained or just short term to early to tell yet.
Monday, November 12, 2007
From the Elliot Wave International : How To Recognize a Financial Mania
How To Recognize a Financial Mania When You're Smack Dab in the Middle of One By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalNovember 12, 2007
When you're caught in the middle of a bad storm, you don't really care whether it's a tropical depression or a full-strength hurricane. You just know you're hanging on for dear life. The same idea applies to financial markets. When a market is trending up strongly, it's hard to tell whether it's just a bull market or a more dangerous financial mania.
The recent tremendous ride up for global and U.S. financial markets, including the Dow, looks and feels more like a mania than a mere bull, says Elliott Wave International analyst Peter Kendall. This distinction is important to recognize in the rising stage, because manias always result in a crash that takes them back beneath their starting point.
Kendall recently published his research into current financial manias throughout the world in SFO (Stocks, Futures and Options) magazine. The article, titled "Financial Manias and the Trade of a Lifetime," suggests an even more stunning finish for the current manias: "The speed and global scope of the unfolding credit crisis suggest that most of the fast-rising markets of the last decade will crash in unison," he writes.
Editor's note: Elliott Wave International invites you to read the full five-page article with charts from the October 2007 SFO magazine by Elliott Wave International's Pete Kendall called "Financial Manias and the Trade of a Lifetime."
As co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Kendall searches for trends that help traders to move in and out of markets. By comparing other historic manias with the impressive rise of the DJIA since the late 1970s, he focuses on the skyscraper pattern that they all have in common. The four historical manias are the Dutch Tulip mania of the 1630s, the South Sea bubble of 1720, the U.S. stock crash of 1921-1932 and the dot.com bust of the 1990s and early 2000s. Once you can see the similarities, you will be better prepared to face the music when the crash comes. As Kendall writes, "once the belief that the markets will always rise becomes widespread, it actually signals the start of a price swing that tends to be a career-breaker for any trader who tries to oppose it."
He also discusses current manias, such as the Nikkei, which has yet to return to its start after a manic rise to its all-time high in December 1989, and the Dow, which reversed from its rise in 2000 but made a U-turn in 2002. The starting point for the Dow's mania as shown in the chart included in the article is at the 1000 level.
Kendall, who is also writing a book about financial manias, titled The Mania Chronicles, describes five telltale signs that help an investor to tell the difference between a regular bull market and a mania. It's a mania if:
1. There is no upside resistance, and rising prices seem to be perpetual.2. Everyone in the market looks like an expert.3. There is a flight from quality investments to riskier investments.4. As financial bubbles pop in one area, they bubble up in others.5. The crash after the peak takes back all the gains the mania made.
No. 5 can be viewed only with hindsight. But the first four signs provide essential clues to what's shaping up in the markets.
"By studying past mania experiences, traders can gain valuable insight into the collective emotions that drive their markets," writes Kendall. "It's possible to make significant money in the advancing stages of a mania with no knowledge of its existence. But there is nothing like recognizing a mania for what it is in real time to help a trader keep those gains and deal with the relentless crash after it peaks."
In the last part of the SFO article, he asks the key question, Are we at the peak yet? Find out his answer by reading the whole article for yourself.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com
bubble bubble toil and trouble
November 12, 2007
Hello,
Pakistan declares a state of emergency and arrests lawyers …hummmm that’s a bad thing?
CNBC’s Jim Kramer calls Andrew Cuomo a communist, Spain’s King tells Hugo Chaves to shut up, Hillary stiffs an Iowa waitress and New Jersey voters finally said “NO” , its about time on all accounts.
Excessive valuations in commodities seem to weigh heavy on the market last week. Oil prices seem to be approaching “bubble” levels. A Super model gives the sell signal for the euro .Lets face it Europe’s heavily export dependent economies are going to suffer greatly if the euro continues a sustained rally.
China’s stocks continue to look way a head of themselves and this blogger continues to wonder why so many investors turned a deaf ear to investing in china in 2002 and yet are so will to now take the plunge at much greater valuations.
Sub prime continue to grab the head lines with rumors of bankruptcy’s echoing through the financial sector. Things are so bad at Citi bank that Prince Alwaleed the largest share holder invited Sandy Weill to met the Prince in Riyadh.
While this time of the year is often hectic. I would like to stress the importance of taking the time to review year-end strategies that could benefit your investment portfolio. For example ,by sitting down face to face or over the phone to look at each of your holdings ,with the help of your tax advisor we can determine if any changes should be made that could reduce your tax liabilities .Areas include IRA’s ,SEP-IRA’s, bond swaps and years –end tax loss selling. We will also want to review your asset allocation to determine if anything needs to be rebalanced in order to stay on track with your investment goals. I know this sounds like a lot of information to think about; however, I think a one hour portfolio review session will be an excellent investment of your time.
James
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762
Hello,
Pakistan declares a state of emergency and arrests lawyers …hummmm that’s a bad thing?
CNBC’s Jim Kramer calls Andrew Cuomo a communist, Spain’s King tells Hugo Chaves to shut up, Hillary stiffs an Iowa waitress and New Jersey voters finally said “NO” , its about time on all accounts.
Excessive valuations in commodities seem to weigh heavy on the market last week. Oil prices seem to be approaching “bubble” levels. A Super model gives the sell signal for the euro .Lets face it Europe’s heavily export dependent economies are going to suffer greatly if the euro continues a sustained rally.
China’s stocks continue to look way a head of themselves and this blogger continues to wonder why so many investors turned a deaf ear to investing in china in 2002 and yet are so will to now take the plunge at much greater valuations.
Sub prime continue to grab the head lines with rumors of bankruptcy’s echoing through the financial sector. Things are so bad at Citi bank that Prince Alwaleed the largest share holder invited Sandy Weill to met the Prince in Riyadh.
While this time of the year is often hectic. I would like to stress the importance of taking the time to review year-end strategies that could benefit your investment portfolio. For example ,by sitting down face to face or over the phone to look at each of your holdings ,with the help of your tax advisor we can determine if any changes should be made that could reduce your tax liabilities .Areas include IRA’s ,SEP-IRA’s, bond swaps and years –end tax loss selling. We will also want to review your asset allocation to determine if anything needs to be rebalanced in order to stay on track with your investment goals. I know this sounds like a lot of information to think about; however, I think a one hour portfolio review session will be an excellent investment of your time.
James
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
you must be kidding ..right?
Excuse me did I miss something, did anyone really think GM was going to have good earnings? Please forward me a list of names.
reapeat after me "Andrew Cuomo " again ."Andrew Cuomo"
Monday, November 05, 2007
the Citi never sleeps part 2
Things are so bad at Citi bank that Prince Alwaleed the largest share holder invited Sandy Weill to met the Prince in Riyadh
oh my god they are arresting lawyers
Pakistan declares a state of emergency and arrests lawyers …hummmm that’s a bad thing?
a big loss means time for a new boss
November 5th,2007
Hello,
While Putkin signs the pact of steel with Iran, the US congress gives peace a chance and stages a sit in, forgoing medaling in the life of their fellow citizens for a short while. But one member of congress was working and he was putting the finishing touches on his (Charley Rangel) 1 trillion dollar tax increase proposal, who says politicians don’t need more time off.
Can you say bubble, China now boast many of the world largest corporations by market cap, but no irrational exuberance here …yea right. Look out belowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Financials continue to pressure market, looks like when it comes to the sub prime debacle, its best to think of the cock roach theory, there never is just one…looks like more unraveling to come .I know I was slow to the party on this one but financial institutions look to continue for some time to be trying to quantify the risk on this one. Look out below….
The Yankees and Merrill Lynch have something in common a big loss means time for a new boss. Housing continues to show weakness and oil moves ever higher. Yet despite the proclaimed demise of the consumer Master Card had huge earnings and the 3rd quarter GDP was better than expected and Halloween candy was sold out by early October.
Oh the irony of it all, Congress wants to punish executives for poor performance and tax payers would like to impose the same rules on congress, we can only hope ….
James J Foytlin
Hello,
While Putkin signs the pact of steel with Iran, the US congress gives peace a chance and stages a sit in, forgoing medaling in the life of their fellow citizens for a short while. But one member of congress was working and he was putting the finishing touches on his (Charley Rangel) 1 trillion dollar tax increase proposal, who says politicians don’t need more time off.
Can you say bubble, China now boast many of the world largest corporations by market cap, but no irrational exuberance here …yea right. Look out belowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Financials continue to pressure market, looks like when it comes to the sub prime debacle, its best to think of the cock roach theory, there never is just one…looks like more unraveling to come .I know I was slow to the party on this one but financial institutions look to continue for some time to be trying to quantify the risk on this one. Look out below….
The Yankees and Merrill Lynch have something in common a big loss means time for a new boss. Housing continues to show weakness and oil moves ever higher. Yet despite the proclaimed demise of the consumer Master Card had huge earnings and the 3rd quarter GDP was better than expected and Halloween candy was sold out by early October.
Oh the irony of it all, Congress wants to punish executives for poor performance and tax payers would like to impose the same rules on congress, we can only hope ….
James J Foytlin
Friday, November 02, 2007
a small explosive device
Ok forget sub prime for a minute security has stopped someone trying to enter the Palo Verde Nuke Plant with a small explosive device yikes….
Thursday, November 01, 2007
sub prime and the cock roach theory
Financial continue to pressure market, looks like when it comes to the sub prime debacle ,its best to think of the cock roach theory ,there never is just one…looks like more unraveling to come .I know I was slow to the party on this one but financial institutions look to continue for some time to be trying to quantify the risk on this one. Look out below….
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Trick or treat time for the FED today !
Hello,
We are entering the seasonally favorable time of the year for stocks, strong earnings by techs and medicals seem to be pushing the market higher despite continued weakness in the financials.
According to recent surveys consumers perceive interest rates to be too high, in the past consumers had an uncanny ability to predict future interest rates and higher batting average than economists. No surprise here given consumers are in fact the end customer.
Investors often ask me how can a regular guy get a head in the world and retire in comfort. Over time it boils down to several factors. Remember constancy for most of us is significantly more important than brilliance.
1) Hold a steady job.
2) View savings as a mandatory bill you are paying yourself.
3) Invest on a regular basis over a long period of time.
4) Avoid early with drawls from 401k, IRA or any other retirement plans.
5) Start as early in life as possible.
6) Keep it simple don’t diversify your self out of your returns.
While I have your attention for 2007 your ability to contribute to your IRA is $4000 and 2008 limit has been increased to $5000. Distributions from 403b plans used by Municipal workers or 457 plans used by Hospitals, Teachers and Universities can now be rolled over into a traditional IRA or a SEP plans. SEP plans now have a maximum contribution of 25% of compensation up to $40,000.
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762
We are entering the seasonally favorable time of the year for stocks, strong earnings by techs and medicals seem to be pushing the market higher despite continued weakness in the financials.
According to recent surveys consumers perceive interest rates to be too high, in the past consumers had an uncanny ability to predict future interest rates and higher batting average than economists. No surprise here given consumers are in fact the end customer.
Investors often ask me how can a regular guy get a head in the world and retire in comfort. Over time it boils down to several factors. Remember constancy for most of us is significantly more important than brilliance.
1) Hold a steady job.
2) View savings as a mandatory bill you are paying yourself.
3) Invest on a regular basis over a long period of time.
4) Avoid early with drawls from 401k, IRA or any other retirement plans.
5) Start as early in life as possible.
6) Keep it simple don’t diversify your self out of your returns.
While I have your attention for 2007 your ability to contribute to your IRA is $4000 and 2008 limit has been increased to $5000. Distributions from 403b plans used by Municipal workers or 457 plans used by Hospitals, Teachers and Universities can now be rolled over into a traditional IRA or a SEP plans. SEP plans now have a maximum contribution of 25% of compensation up to $40,000.
http://onesmallvoice.blogspot.com/
James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762
Thursday, October 25, 2007
here we go again ..............
Of coarse Charley Rangels $ 1 trillion dollar tax increase proposal had nothing to do with the market going down?
Monday, October 22, 2007
Folks this isn’t the 1970’s
I have said this before, economist have predicted 9 out of the last 2 recessions. Folks this isn’t the 1970’s, interest rates are low and looking to go down and employment remains pretty strong with a low very unemployment rate ,so why would the consumer default on their credit agreements if they are working and interest rates remain low ? The answer is they wont.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Black Monday 20 years later
20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash…..
Since 87 the pattern emerged of tremendous volatility, the market would sell off through most of October then turn around right on or around October 20th rallying pushing equities into the positive by month end. However since the year long melt down of 2000 this and many other seasonal patterns in the markets have not been as defined nor consistent.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
So the decline of the dollar is making news ,but what does this really mean for investors?
The post war period was a time of an enormous increase in us production capacity to help rebuild the world from the ravages of war.In the seventies the process reversed and the US consumer backed by a strong US currency emerged .From the early1980’s till 2000 the US consumer carried the world economy on its back .Today is again like the 1970’s marked by a period of transition .The new consumers in Asia ,India and South America are beging to drive the world economy .The the US currency is declining to better position US manufacturiers to sell to world markets . US investors must reposition themselves for the new boom in exports and the power of the new consumer(china,india,brazil).
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
And Today the Upside to Global Warming
As I had expected oil inventories were quite a bit larger than expected,can you say indian summer anyone?
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Oil, Can you say buy on the rumor sell on the news?
I am not sure I think that Turkish incursions in to northern Iraq will have the net impact so many are looking for. Prior to the current government, Turkey chased Kurdish rebels into northern Iraq on a semi regular basis and I am not sure it had any effect on Iraqi oil then and I don’t see it as having any effect on Iraqi oil now. The market once again seems to be factoring the worst case and as I have often stated on this blog ,that markets hate uncertainty .Can you say buy on the rumor sell on the news?
Monday, October 15, 2007
Gores prize,Turkey's war and earnings yes earnings
October 15th, 2007
Hello,
Al Gore the man who brought you the internet is now a proud sponsor of climate change thru global warming, my bet is that in the long run he is as right about climate change as he was about discovering the internet, but hey there is lots of money to be made with carbon dispensations….
Oil prices surge on news that Turkey looking to invade Northern Iraq, one question what took you so long? As Oil continues to hover around $80 a barrel this seems to be propelling alternative energy stocks ever higher.
For the buy signal, Option traders are telling us the market has hit a short term peak. Being the contrarian I am I am always willing to bet against any commonly held notions. Another bullish signal is that retail investors continue to take money out of equity mutual funds. In the past there was no better predictor of market direction than mutual fund money flows. What can I say looks like a nice set up for some more upside in US equities?
Yes its earnings times once again and much has been made about changes in managements, mergers and acquisitions, my suggestion would be for many companies who are having a tuff time better to focus on customer service especially when sales are internet dependent, Technology is proven to not be a substitute for brains or service.
It seems earnings expectations have been greatly diminished, and traders wonder weather the FED’s Halloween meeting will offer a trick or a treat? The release of the September 18th minutes seem to suggest the FED was neither panicked nor oblivious contrary to popular belief.
So why buy US stocks, well from a global perspective the US continues to have higher earning predictability which usually garners a premium and lower volatility compared to other markets.
James J Foytlin
Hello,
Al Gore the man who brought you the internet is now a proud sponsor of climate change thru global warming, my bet is that in the long run he is as right about climate change as he was about discovering the internet, but hey there is lots of money to be made with carbon dispensations….
Oil prices surge on news that Turkey looking to invade Northern Iraq, one question what took you so long? As Oil continues to hover around $80 a barrel this seems to be propelling alternative energy stocks ever higher.
For the buy signal, Option traders are telling us the market has hit a short term peak. Being the contrarian I am I am always willing to bet against any commonly held notions. Another bullish signal is that retail investors continue to take money out of equity mutual funds. In the past there was no better predictor of market direction than mutual fund money flows. What can I say looks like a nice set up for some more upside in US equities?
Yes its earnings times once again and much has been made about changes in managements, mergers and acquisitions, my suggestion would be for many companies who are having a tuff time better to focus on customer service especially when sales are internet dependent, Technology is proven to not be a substitute for brains or service.
It seems earnings expectations have been greatly diminished, and traders wonder weather the FED’s Halloween meeting will offer a trick or a treat? The release of the September 18th minutes seem to suggest the FED was neither panicked nor oblivious contrary to popular belief.
So why buy US stocks, well from a global perspective the US continues to have higher earning predictability which usually garners a premium and lower volatility compared to other markets.
James J Foytlin
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
2 bullish signals
For the buy signal Option traders are telling us the market has hit a short term peak ,yep that’s the news of the day .The same facts that produced a upside on Friday are now the same data points that will lead to the massive demise of western civilization some how I have heard this all before.
Another bullish signal continues to be that retail investors continue to take money out of equity mutual funds. In the past there was no better predictor of market direction than mutual fund money flows.What can I say looks like a nice set up for some more upside in US equities?
Another bullish signal continues to be that retail investors continue to take money out of equity mutual funds. In the past there was no better predictor of market direction than mutual fund money flows.What can I say looks like a nice set up for some more upside in US equities?
Monday, October 08, 2007
So now we know why the Citi never sleeps (Update)
October 5, 2007
Hello,
So now we know why the Citi never sleeps. It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank. The recent confessions by Citi sent the markets into the sky, looks like many investors like seeing where the bodies are buried.
One senses a full blown disaster has been averted and the across the board weakness in the financial sector has created shopping opportunities for larger rivals ,thus Toronto Dominion takes over Commerce Bank ,gaining a foot hold in the North East USA. I am sure this will not be the last given the irrational destruction of financials and the seizing of the bond and credit markets .Its not the end consumers that are failing it’s the traders and investment bankers that seem to have given in to panic. Foreign rivals also have the advantage of a weaker dollar giving them greater purchasing power.
The craziest thing about the recent jobs data was that it had economist complaining that the economy is not creating enough low wage jobs?
This may be an ideal time to ensure that your portfolio holdings are correctly diversified and on track toward meeting your investment objectives. As a way to introduce myself and the broad range of financial services I can offer, I’d like to offer you a comprehensive portfolio review.
I want you to know that I’m here for you and reiterate my commitment to helping you reach your financial goals. Please contact me at you earliest convenience to set up a comprehensive portfolio review and update your contact information and investment goals. Please call me, James Foytlin at 1(866)492-3959.
James J Foytlin
Hello,
So now we know why the Citi never sleeps. It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank. The recent confessions by Citi sent the markets into the sky, looks like many investors like seeing where the bodies are buried.
One senses a full blown disaster has been averted and the across the board weakness in the financial sector has created shopping opportunities for larger rivals ,thus Toronto Dominion takes over Commerce Bank ,gaining a foot hold in the North East USA. I am sure this will not be the last given the irrational destruction of financials and the seizing of the bond and credit markets .Its not the end consumers that are failing it’s the traders and investment bankers that seem to have given in to panic. Foreign rivals also have the advantage of a weaker dollar giving them greater purchasing power.
The craziest thing about the recent jobs data was that it had economist complaining that the economy is not creating enough low wage jobs?
This may be an ideal time to ensure that your portfolio holdings are correctly diversified and on track toward meeting your investment objectives. As a way to introduce myself and the broad range of financial services I can offer, I’d like to offer you a comprehensive portfolio review.
I want you to know that I’m here for you and reiterate my commitment to helping you reach your financial goals. Please contact me at you earliest convenience to set up a comprehensive portfolio review and update your contact information and investment goals. Please call me, James Foytlin at 1(866)492-3959.
James J Foytlin
Friday, October 05, 2007
you say what?
The craziest thing about the recent jobs data was that it had economist complaining that the economy is not creating enough low wage jobs?
It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank
So now we know why the Citi never sleeps. It seems over the years that all financial crisis end with Citi bank. The recent confessions by Citi sent the markets into the sky, looks like many investors like seeing where the bodies are buried.
One senses a full blown disaster has been averted and the across the board weakness in the financial sector has created shopping opportunities for larger rivals ,thus Toronto Dominion takes over Commerce Bank ,gaining a foot hold in the North East USA. I am sure this will not be the last given the irrational destruction of financials and the seizing of the bond and credit markets .Its not the end consumers that are failing it’s the traders and investment bankers that seem to have given in to panic. Foreign rivals also have the advantage of a weaker dollar giving them greater purchasing power.
This may be an ideal time to ensure that your portfolio holdings are correctly diversified and on track toward meeting your investment objectives. As a way to introduce myself and the broad range of financial services I can offer, I’d like to offer you a comprehensive portfolio review.
I want you to know that I’m here for you and reiterate my commitment to helping you reach your financial goals. Please contact me at you earliest convenience to set up a comprehensive portfolio review and update your contact information and investment goals. Please call me, James Foytlin at 1(866)492-3959
One senses a full blown disaster has been averted and the across the board weakness in the financial sector has created shopping opportunities for larger rivals ,thus Toronto Dominion takes over Commerce Bank ,gaining a foot hold in the North East USA. I am sure this will not be the last given the irrational destruction of financials and the seizing of the bond and credit markets .Its not the end consumers that are failing it’s the traders and investment bankers that seem to have given in to panic. Foreign rivals also have the advantage of a weaker dollar giving them greater purchasing power.
This may be an ideal time to ensure that your portfolio holdings are correctly diversified and on track toward meeting your investment objectives. As a way to introduce myself and the broad range of financial services I can offer, I’d like to offer you a comprehensive portfolio review.
I want you to know that I’m here for you and reiterate my commitment to helping you reach your financial goals. Please contact me at you earliest convenience to set up a comprehensive portfolio review and update your contact information and investment goals. Please call me, James Foytlin at 1(866)492-3959
Monday, October 01, 2007
Citi Confesses
No crisis is complete until Citi confesses and now we are starting to see where the bodies are buried.
Friday, September 28, 2007
US Stocks close Up for the Quarter
Looks like we are headeed for the 5th consecutive quarterly gain for the S&P 500 !
Thursday, September 27, 2007
worst case scenarios don’t seem to be happening
In a recent Rasmussen poll 44% of the respondents believed health care should be free and 99% of the respondents believed Beer should be free, I am one of the 99% anyway …..
Two significant issues yesterday, first looks like GM has gotten back in the car making business and the UAW finally started to get serious and move to modernize the benefit package workers receive. Looks like the UAW finally came to terms with the idea that a company does not stay in business to long if it carries a huge cost disadvantage compared to its competitors. This has been a very long time in coming .This may signal the beginning of a revival for US car making in North America. It’s just the beginning; the next step would be for GM to start making more interesting cars and not have good designs get lost between engineering and production.
The second item is that Investment Groups have been raising money to buy LBO debt imply renewed liquidity for the debt markets .Couple this with the rumor of Warren Buffet looking at Bear. Brokers have been swept with buy out rumors the last couple of week’s .True or not coupled with some of the earning news for brokers and banks and the fact that however difficult the situation it doesn’t seem to be turning in to a contagious crisis engulfing the entire economy and worst case scenarios don’t seem to be materializing.
If you are having difficulty reading and understanding your financial statements; I am now offering a new service, it is obviously called Translating your Statements .Bring in your bank, brokerage, IRA or mutual fund statements and I will teach you how to read and understand them. It is quick and easy so give me a call and set up an appointment today.
James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762
Two significant issues yesterday, first looks like GM has gotten back in the car making business and the UAW finally started to get serious and move to modernize the benefit package workers receive. Looks like the UAW finally came to terms with the idea that a company does not stay in business to long if it carries a huge cost disadvantage compared to its competitors. This has been a very long time in coming .This may signal the beginning of a revival for US car making in North America. It’s just the beginning; the next step would be for GM to start making more interesting cars and not have good designs get lost between engineering and production.
The second item is that Investment Groups have been raising money to buy LBO debt imply renewed liquidity for the debt markets .Couple this with the rumor of Warren Buffet looking at Bear. Brokers have been swept with buy out rumors the last couple of week’s .True or not coupled with some of the earning news for brokers and banks and the fact that however difficult the situation it doesn’t seem to be turning in to a contagious crisis engulfing the entire economy and worst case scenarios don’t seem to be materializing.
If you are having difficulty reading and understanding your financial statements; I am now offering a new service, it is obviously called Translating your Statements .Bring in your bank, brokerage, IRA or mutual fund statements and I will teach you how to read and understand them. It is quick and easy so give me a call and set up an appointment today.
James J Foytlin
Investment Representative
Horwitz and Associates
1(201)301-2780
Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
1(201)301-2762
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
UAW walks the walk, Hillary looks to nationalize medicine and France prepares for war with Iran..
September 26, 2007
Hello
Ok so the UAW walked out and then walked in, Hillary proposed nationalized medicine and France prepares for war with Iran. Mean while the US stock market tries to recover from the triple witch, banks and brokers begin to come clean on sub prime. Critics continue to say there is plenty of blame to go around and it appears the rating agencies are the focal point of the blame game at the moment.
The dreaded “R” word continues to tossed around by the talking heads but forgive for remaining skeptical but most of the data points indicating recession come from the steamy hot days of summer and while Wall Street always forgets that people put off large expenditures during the summer months ,wise investors would be careful not to.
The Real Estate market continues to search for a bottom and given the levels of inventory the search may go on for a couple more years. The big question on everyone’s mind is will a recession in housing spill over to a recession in the economy as a whole? I for one am still not buying it and the answer is simple real-estate since 2000 because of easy money had become more of an investment than a place to live ,excessive liquidity and strong demographics propelled excessive volumes of transaction ,pushing home ownership in the USA to records .In my mind there is no better indication of the power of the middle class than home ownership and there is still no simpler way to move from lower to upper middle class than to hold a steady job ,and be home owners though three generations. Yes speculators will be hit hard and even more normal sales volumes will seem very slow, fringe transactions are no longer viable, some lenders will be punished for poor judgment but at the end of the day there doesn’t seem to be the rampant reckless lending that has been so often predicted.
The market trades on future expectations, and since the “R” word is already out of the box ,it looks like the inverse of buy on the rumor sell on the news ,with bad news its sell on the rumor buy on the news. So a real economic slow down could signal the beginning of the next major BULL market.
James
Hello
Ok so the UAW walked out and then walked in, Hillary proposed nationalized medicine and France prepares for war with Iran. Mean while the US stock market tries to recover from the triple witch, banks and brokers begin to come clean on sub prime. Critics continue to say there is plenty of blame to go around and it appears the rating agencies are the focal point of the blame game at the moment.
The dreaded “R” word continues to tossed around by the talking heads but forgive for remaining skeptical but most of the data points indicating recession come from the steamy hot days of summer and while Wall Street always forgets that people put off large expenditures during the summer months ,wise investors would be careful not to.
The Real Estate market continues to search for a bottom and given the levels of inventory the search may go on for a couple more years. The big question on everyone’s mind is will a recession in housing spill over to a recession in the economy as a whole? I for one am still not buying it and the answer is simple real-estate since 2000 because of easy money had become more of an investment than a place to live ,excessive liquidity and strong demographics propelled excessive volumes of transaction ,pushing home ownership in the USA to records .In my mind there is no better indication of the power of the middle class than home ownership and there is still no simpler way to move from lower to upper middle class than to hold a steady job ,and be home owners though three generations. Yes speculators will be hit hard and even more normal sales volumes will seem very slow, fringe transactions are no longer viable, some lenders will be punished for poor judgment but at the end of the day there doesn’t seem to be the rampant reckless lending that has been so often predicted.
The market trades on future expectations, and since the “R” word is already out of the box ,it looks like the inverse of buy on the rumor sell on the news ,with bad news its sell on the rumor buy on the news. So a real economic slow down could signal the beginning of the next major BULL market.
James
Monday, September 24, 2007
GM workers talk Strike
Ok so call me a trouble maker but if GM workers are going on strike and this is a “bad for GM thing” why is the stock up so much? Perhaps the UAW should take notice.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
the FED Stands and Delivers
HUMMM So the traders wished and dreamed and the FED finally delivered what they wanted but it seems in their hearts traders were not believers in FED policy ,hoping for the best but preparing to be disappointed so when the FED worked its magic and delivered the market catapulted into the sky.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Now for the Scary Part....................
The scary part of the world’s 10 most polluted cities list is that Chernobyl is number 9. Which brings to mind the point of this post energy and food appear to reemerging as short term issues. With all the focus on sub prime its been little noticed but wheat and oil having been hitting new highs almost everyday. Seems there are fears that supplies won’t meet demand. I have found in the recent past the market can rise for a while in the face of higher energy prices but then there come a breaking point and the market gives in to corrective influences. I would look for the DOW and S&P to stay in the same channel and use the price of the index as a trading point instead of higher fuel prices.
Monday, September 10, 2007
the Devil you know is better than the Devil you dont
Seems to me that until we start getting some earnings from the big banks and brokers the market will remain open to extreme volatility. The market doesn’t like surprises, so bad news is often better than no news. What I would look for is some OK earnings, nothing great but nothing terrible .Current expectations seem to be looking for a massive shortfalls in profits and significant loan losses anything less would go a long way reassure the market and perhaps get us back on the good foot.
Friday, September 07, 2007
Job growth stalled and my house is your house?
I am still not sure I am buying all the recession talk yet after all economist have predicted 9 of the last 2 recessions and have a habit of predicting them during the summer beach season, but perhaps the employment number has given the FED cover to cut rates .
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
the FED's Catch 22
Catch 22 for the FED, a cut is priced in the market, yet the FED’s credibility may on the line not wanting to look like they are orchestrating a bail out for some pressured financial institutions and hedge funds
Monday, September 03, 2007
September Song
Keep in mind since 1920 September has been the worst performing month for the market by a long shot as shown in the table below. The Dow has only had a positive return in the month of September 38% of the time. In contrast the month of December has finished with a positive return 75% of the time.
Dow Monthly Performance 1920-2007
Month Positive Negative
Dec 75% 25%
Jan 66% 34%
Nov 63% 37%
Aug 62% 38%
July 61% 39%
Oct 60% 40%
Mar 58% 42%
April 57% 43%
Feb 53% 47%
May 52% 48%
June 50% 50%
Sep 38% 62%
Dow Monthly Performance 1920-2007
Month Positive Negative
Dec 75% 25%
Jan 66% 34%
Nov 63% 37%
Aug 62% 38%
July 61% 39%
Oct 60% 40%
Mar 58% 42%
April 57% 43%
Feb 53% 47%
May 52% 48%
June 50% 50%
Sep 38% 62%
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Back to School
Its August and its back to school and back to school retain sales are the talk of Wall Street. Look for Wall Street to make an overly big deal about slow back to school sales, while Wall Street is busy predicting the next recession it would be wise to remember that retail is always slow during the summer months,most Americans are focused on enjoying the great out doors not running to the shopping all or auto dealers. Summer is time for fun, family and friends, which often causes people to postpone large or significant purchases during the summer months.
Monday, August 27, 2007
No More Easy Money
No more easy money but Bank and Insurance company officers have bought more of there own stock than any time in 12 years (wow) . By the way does anyone really think we are going to have a good number for existing home sales and if so why?
Friday, August 24, 2007
Panic of 1907 ?
Sub prime tsunami spreads, and it all in the package .So here is the deal, looks like the wise men of Wall Street put together mortgage backed bonds that could have high credit ratings yet contain a few illiquid credits (low credit quality credits). Although this spreads the risk over the credit system and could disperse losses it undermines the confidence of buyers and credibility of the rating systems creating suspicion and illiquidity. Translation: buyers got more than they paid for and not what they paid for. So buyers are now looking for assurances that they are getting what they think they are getting. This implies that in order for buyers to step up credit standards will have to be greatly increased, thus a “credit squeeze” is underway, or as some would say a return to more prudent normal lending practices.
Buyers on the other hand are busy confessing their sub prime indiscretions on a daily basis, many being forced to admit that they shouldn’t have been buying sub prime paper in the first place.
Mean while other investors ask; Is there really a crisis or is this just an effort by large investors to get the federal government to bail out home owners with sub prime loans and therefore bail out wealthy investors that invested in hedge funds who bought those loans? I respect Bill Gross of PIMCO but he sounds like he is lobbying to get preferential treatment to some investors. If you’re good enough to take the big risks and make the big money, you should be good enough to take the hits when things don’t go your way.
I am also pleased to announce that I am now to offer Investment Advisory Services. I can offer access to a diverse rage of Investment Strategies, low initial minimum investment, a customized portfolio structure, access to qualified and respected advisors, offering a wide range of investment strategies to balance risk and diversify.
I have some good news for all clients, those difficult to fill out class action suit claims will now be automatically submitted for you by my partner Horwitz and Associates and all money’s received will be directly deposited into your Horwitz Account.
Thank you again for all the referrals you have passed my way the last couple of months I really appreciate it.
Don’t forget through www.jamesfoytlin.com I have entered into an agreement with Elliott Wave International to provide additional content on Elliot Wave Specific strategy and commentary. Contact me if you are interested in using the Elliott Wave to more effectively manage your portfolio.
James Foytlin
Financial Advisor
toll free 1(866) 492-3959
1(201)301-2780
Cell 1(201)966-7788
Buyers on the other hand are busy confessing their sub prime indiscretions on a daily basis, many being forced to admit that they shouldn’t have been buying sub prime paper in the first place.
Mean while other investors ask; Is there really a crisis or is this just an effort by large investors to get the federal government to bail out home owners with sub prime loans and therefore bail out wealthy investors that invested in hedge funds who bought those loans? I respect Bill Gross of PIMCO but he sounds like he is lobbying to get preferential treatment to some investors. If you’re good enough to take the big risks and make the big money, you should be good enough to take the hits when things don’t go your way.
I am also pleased to announce that I am now to offer Investment Advisory Services. I can offer access to a diverse rage of Investment Strategies, low initial minimum investment, a customized portfolio structure, access to qualified and respected advisors, offering a wide range of investment strategies to balance risk and diversify.
I have some good news for all clients, those difficult to fill out class action suit claims will now be automatically submitted for you by my partner Horwitz and Associates and all money’s received will be directly deposited into your Horwitz Account.
Thank you again for all the referrals you have passed my way the last couple of months I really appreciate it.
Don’t forget through www.jamesfoytlin.com I have entered into an agreement with Elliott Wave International to provide additional content on Elliot Wave Specific strategy and commentary. Contact me if you are interested in using the Elliott Wave to more effectively manage your portfolio.
James Foytlin
Financial Advisor
toll free 1(866) 492-3959
1(201)301-2780
Cell 1(201)966-7788
Monday, August 20, 2007
I repost this after every sell off...."the Talk"
Repost from September 22,2006
Time to get started Part 3 the Talk: "Asset Allocation"
September 22, 2006
Hello,
This is when most investment professionals give you the talk; you know the talk about how you should be diversified into different asset classes. I think this is the most over used bunch of BS the investment community throws at investors and I have a bit of a different take on asset allocation.
First and foremost it is important to recognize that for new investors with small amounts of money asset allocation becomes a meaningless gesture, as a new investor you need to concentrate on building your asset base so you have something too diversify with. Secondly if you were an investor in the early 2000 during the market melt down you noticed that everything you owned no matter what it was or where it was invested sold off and if there is one thing we learned from the bubble bursting in 2000 was that in a serious bear market asset allocation does not work. I will repeat that in a serious bear market asset allocation does not work.
For many investors some asset classes are just not viable or not suitable or simply conflict with the investor’s investment style or risk tolerance. There is also the practical problem that some asset classes remain in very long periods of Bear markets and from time to time arise for very short Bull runs leaving investors buying at the highs and selling at the lows more often than not. And finally I have come to think that most asset allocation models are set up to feed money manager’s businesses not increasing investors return .It is more about the money manger full employment act than anything else.
For most investor’s assets the allocation process can be accomplished with the use of common sense ie… large cap, mid cap and small cap or Aggressive Growth, Value, Fixed income or Energy, Technology Consumer Products. It is most important to not to violate the viability, the suitability, your investment style or your own risk tolerances.
Another important issue is to make sure the funds are not all holding the same stocks .I know this sounds silly but the dirty little secret of the mutual fund business is that most of the larger mutual funds can only buy certain stocks that have a large enough capitalization that allows the fund to purchase a significant amount of shares to effect change in the total portfolio of the fund. With careful observation most investors will notice the same 10 stocks in every fund they own .Now that’s not much diversification is it?
Another hole in the Fund Manager Full Employment Act (Asset Allocation theory) has popped up in recent months, according to Bloomberg News, ”The average daily correlation of returns for Morgan Stanley Capital International's World and Emerging Markets Indexes has climbed to the highest since at least 1988. The S&P 500 and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average, along with the Nikkei and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, are tracking each other's daily returns by the most since at least 1987, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Shares in the U.S. and Europe have the second- highest correlation in 20 years.” Also according to the same source this year, the average daily correlation between the MSCI World gauge tracking developed markets and MSCI's measure of emerging markets increased to 0.87, according to Bloomberg data, which dates back to 1988 for that comparison. A correlation of 1 means stocks are in lockstep, while minus 1 indicates stocks are moving in opposite directions. So it seems proof that global markets are more correlated than ever before. As I have said many times when your broker gives you the talk (Asset Allocation Theory) better take a walk.
Thank you again for all the referrals you have passed my way the last couple of months I really appreciate it.
Through www.jamesfoytlin.com I am entering in to an agreement with Elliott Wave International to provide additional content on Elliot Wave Specific strategy and commentary. Contact me if you are interested in using the Elliott Wave to more effectively manage your portfolio.
New Phone Numbers are toll free 1(866) 492-3959
1(201)301-2780
Cell 1(201)966-7788
James
http://www.jamesfoytlin.com/
Time to get started Part 3 the Talk: "Asset Allocation"
September 22, 2006
Hello,
This is when most investment professionals give you the talk; you know the talk about how you should be diversified into different asset classes. I think this is the most over used bunch of BS the investment community throws at investors and I have a bit of a different take on asset allocation.
First and foremost it is important to recognize that for new investors with small amounts of money asset allocation becomes a meaningless gesture, as a new investor you need to concentrate on building your asset base so you have something too diversify with. Secondly if you were an investor in the early 2000 during the market melt down you noticed that everything you owned no matter what it was or where it was invested sold off and if there is one thing we learned from the bubble bursting in 2000 was that in a serious bear market asset allocation does not work. I will repeat that in a serious bear market asset allocation does not work.
For many investors some asset classes are just not viable or not suitable or simply conflict with the investor’s investment style or risk tolerance. There is also the practical problem that some asset classes remain in very long periods of Bear markets and from time to time arise for very short Bull runs leaving investors buying at the highs and selling at the lows more often than not. And finally I have come to think that most asset allocation models are set up to feed money manager’s businesses not increasing investors return .It is more about the money manger full employment act than anything else.
For most investor’s assets the allocation process can be accomplished with the use of common sense ie… large cap, mid cap and small cap or Aggressive Growth, Value, Fixed income or Energy, Technology Consumer Products. It is most important to not to violate the viability, the suitability, your investment style or your own risk tolerances.
Another important issue is to make sure the funds are not all holding the same stocks .I know this sounds silly but the dirty little secret of the mutual fund business is that most of the larger mutual funds can only buy certain stocks that have a large enough capitalization that allows the fund to purchase a significant amount of shares to effect change in the total portfolio of the fund. With careful observation most investors will notice the same 10 stocks in every fund they own .Now that’s not much diversification is it?
Another hole in the Fund Manager Full Employment Act (Asset Allocation theory) has popped up in recent months, according to Bloomberg News, ”The average daily correlation of returns for Morgan Stanley Capital International's World and Emerging Markets Indexes has climbed to the highest since at least 1988. The S&P 500 and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average, along with the Nikkei and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, are tracking each other's daily returns by the most since at least 1987, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Shares in the U.S. and Europe have the second- highest correlation in 20 years.” Also according to the same source this year, the average daily correlation between the MSCI World gauge tracking developed markets and MSCI's measure of emerging markets increased to 0.87, according to Bloomberg data, which dates back to 1988 for that comparison. A correlation of 1 means stocks are in lockstep, while minus 1 indicates stocks are moving in opposite directions. So it seems proof that global markets are more correlated than ever before. As I have said many times when your broker gives you the talk (Asset Allocation Theory) better take a walk.
Thank you again for all the referrals you have passed my way the last couple of months I really appreciate it.
Through www.jamesfoytlin.com I am entering in to an agreement with Elliott Wave International to provide additional content on Elliot Wave Specific strategy and commentary. Contact me if you are interested in using the Elliott Wave to more effectively manage your portfolio.
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James
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Holy Cow; there is more to the story than this
The sub prime “crisis” does not seem to merit the amount of selling we have seen the last couple of weeks, this investor suspect that some major financial institution perhaps over indulged in the sub prime give away.
In the long run I remain very bullish but in the short run I think we have not seen the last of the shake out.
In the long run I remain very bullish but in the short run I think we have not seen the last of the shake out.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Perspective
The sub prime lending crisis is a lot like having a working antique gold watch, it keeps excellent time but no matter what you do you can’t seem to sell it at any price .So does that mean its worthless and broken?
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Drying up liquidity?
Wall Street seems to be bouncing back and forth between Chicken Little and a “don’t worry be happy attitude” With the main question being; is the mortgage squeeze turning into a credit freeze? As I have repeated before this market seems to be entering a new phase of more normal volatility and greater momentum after almost a decade of low volatility and low momentum. It is quite normal to retrench after a break out and the magnitude of the retrenchment often signals the power of the coming rally. Yes I am still bullish and yes I think the current volatility is more normal than extraordinary.
Monday, August 06, 2007
This market looks more like its getting religion
This market looks more like its getting religion the morning after .Suddenly investors have noticed that we seem to be in a severe slow down in Real Estate ,shocker yes and that banks that once spread the word of Real Estate Sage Carlton Sheets and Wade Cooke encouraging a ”no money down” home ownership have since recanted. What this investor remains skeptical of is how significant the sub prime debacle will be? Will it spread through the credit system, causing a credit crunch or will it be contained to the very hedge funds that profited so mightily from it? Remember in market sell downs the good gets swept down with the bad so for investors there is boundless opportunity in the many stocks that have been taken down by market action that really have nothing to do with the consequence of housing.
Original down side target was 13200 we could see some where around 12800 which is the 200 day moving average.
Original down side target was 13200 we could see some where around 12800 which is the 200 day moving average.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Business Trip this Week
I will be away on business from Wednesday august 1st till Monday August 6th I will be available to conduct business pleases contact me on my cell phone.
A rolling rally or the big bounce?
In the 1980’s and 1990s at the end of a sell off we would often see a huge selling climax coupled with a big bounce up ward ,but since 2000 we noticed a new phenomenon ,its what I call the rolling slow take off rally ,characterized by slow momentum building turn around . Like earlier this year this looks to be another example of a slow rolling takeoff.
Monday, July 30, 2007
a period of increased volatility
Important to remember we are moving from a period of very low volatility to a period of increased volatility in the market .This is consistent with a market that is in transition form Bear to Bull or Bulll to Bear.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Mutual Fund Investors Panic over Sub Prime Meltdown
In some positive news outflows on mutual funds a bullish contrarian indicator have reached the second highest level of out flows so far this year and like the previous out flow high on February 27th may signal the next advance in equity markets .
Sub prime lending …another 1998 contagion?
Sub prime lending …another contagion? Some how I find it hard to believe that mortgage defaults of the high risk variety in the USA are having a similar impact to Russia defaulting on it sovereign debt in 1998 and the contagion that soon followed? Sub Prime lending has a bigger impact than Hurricane Katrina, the global war on terror, famine in Africa or the latest tsunami. It’s amazing the power of the American consumer don’t you think. Despite the sell off many equities are trading well with in there trading range ,I think it pays well to heed the lesson of 1998 ,that these ‘crisis’s” seem to reverse them selves(some where around 13200 on the DOW)and when they do often lead to new market highs rather quickly.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Lindsay Lohan heads back to rehab , hail the volatility
Increases in volatility goes hand in hand with market rallies. Remember we have been living with some very very low levels of volatility since the sell off in 2000, volatility will increase significantly in the early stages of bull markets and I would look at this sell down or any other as a buying opportunity. Unlike most market commentators my view has been that we were in a major bear market since March 2000 and we are in the process of a long over due catching up.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Jersey City Rocket Launcher Sinks US Markets
Sub prime lending takes the hit once again for Wall Street woes add that to a let down from Google and a Caterpillar that’s slightly off track and you had the recipe for a sell off ,giving up the gains for the entire week ,but this bloger wonders if news reports of a rocket launcher that was found in Jersey City in the flight path of Newark Airport had anything to do with market weakness?
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
14000 its just physiological?
The DOW Hits 14000 ,but its just physiological? All mile stones and new highs are physiological lets face it, after all according to the Elliot Wave Theory everything is physiological. So yes it is physiological for the DOW to hit 14000 just as it was when it hit 1000 or 12000. The important issues is that the catch up game is underway traders know it harder and longer to get even ,once your even momentum builds and the velocity of change begins to heat up.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Another Bull case
Another interesting positive development is the huge amount of company buy backs of there own stock. The gross volume of money spent buy companies buying there own stock is staggering. Folks lets face it US companies feel their own stock is cheap and a good investment. The huge amount of these programs at this time implies the many companies feel there stock is undervalued and there for implies US equity markets are undervalued.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
1982 all over again
Dow Jones just broke a short term double top, no guarantees but usually the velocity of the upside increases dramatically after such a move .
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
a leg up....
Important to notice a very positive development the market continues to push higher in strong last minute day end rallies. This is a very positive development these last minute leg ups are symptomatic of future advances in equity markets and often signal large investors are buying.
Friday, June 29, 2007
news news news
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- After six months of unprecedented hype, thousands of people Friday will get their hands on the iPhone, the new cell phone that Apple Inc. is banking on to become its third core business next to its moneymaking iPod players and Macintosh computers.
TEHRAN: Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack. (Herald Tribune)
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil prices shot back up above the psychologically important $70 a barrel mark on Friday, trading at a level last seen 10 months ago for the second time in two days on worries about gasoline supplies.
President Hugo Chávez yesterday hinted that Venezuela could try to become a nuclear power, during a visit to Russia apparently timed to antagonise the White House. (the Guardian)
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are masking burgeoning losses in the market for subprime mortgage bonds by failing to cut the credit ratings on about $200 billion of securities backed by home loans.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - A bill that would require most dogs and cats in California to be spayed or neutered has brought howls of protest from breeders and threats from the American Kennel Club to pull the nation's second-largest dog show from the state.
Some tourists, amateur photographers, even would-be filmmakers hoping to make it big on YouTube could soon be forced to obtain a city permit and $1 million in liability insurance before taking pictures or filming on city property, including sidewalks. New rules being considered by the Mayor’s Office of Film, Theater and Broadcasting would require any group of two or more people who want to use a camera in a single public location for more than a half hour to get a city permit and insurance. (NYT)
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Commerce Bancorp Inc. replaced Chief Executive Officer Vernon Hill, the company founder who turned it into New Jersey's biggest bank, and agreed with regulators to bar deals between directors and outside vendors.
TEHRAN: Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack. (Herald Tribune)
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil prices shot back up above the psychologically important $70 a barrel mark on Friday, trading at a level last seen 10 months ago for the second time in two days on worries about gasoline supplies.
President Hugo Chávez yesterday hinted that Venezuela could try to become a nuclear power, during a visit to Russia apparently timed to antagonise the White House. (the Guardian)
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are masking burgeoning losses in the market for subprime mortgage bonds by failing to cut the credit ratings on about $200 billion of securities backed by home loans.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - A bill that would require most dogs and cats in California to be spayed or neutered has brought howls of protest from breeders and threats from the American Kennel Club to pull the nation's second-largest dog show from the state.
Some tourists, amateur photographers, even would-be filmmakers hoping to make it big on YouTube could soon be forced to obtain a city permit and $1 million in liability insurance before taking pictures or filming on city property, including sidewalks. New rules being considered by the Mayor’s Office of Film, Theater and Broadcasting would require any group of two or more people who want to use a camera in a single public location for more than a half hour to get a city permit and insurance. (NYT)
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Commerce Bancorp Inc. replaced Chief Executive Officer Vernon Hill, the company founder who turned it into New Jersey's biggest bank, and agreed with regulators to bar deals between directors and outside vendors.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Friday, June 22, 2007
Bear Trouble and Black Stone
Bear Stearns has to pony up to make one of its hedge funds hole and the market takes a tumble. To make matter worse there seems to be some confusion as to weather the fund would be forced to sell some assets or Bear would step up with cash .The fund had some significant loses in the sub prime area but at this point I don’t think it is going to spread .
Black Stone Group followed the age old principal on Wall Street to cash out before you get found out. Looks to me more like the beginning of the end for private equity funds than the beginning of something big. Many financial stocks have preformed poorly this year yet the hype of these deals knows no bounds, it is important to remember Wall Street makes money by selling you things and the amount of hype is usually in direct inverse proportion to the value of the holdings. Yes its true the good deals you almost never hear anything about until it’s to late.
Black Stone Group followed the age old principal on Wall Street to cash out before you get found out. Looks to me more like the beginning of the end for private equity funds than the beginning of something big. Many financial stocks have preformed poorly this year yet the hype of these deals knows no bounds, it is important to remember Wall Street makes money by selling you things and the amount of hype is usually in direct inverse proportion to the value of the holdings. Yes its true the good deals you almost never hear anything about until it’s to late.
Investment Group Meetings
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Investment group all are welcome novice as well as advanced, talk investment strategies in a casual club like atmosphere over a drink and house music .email to RSVP ,or call (201)966-7788 no fee all are welcome,Teak on the Hudson, 16-18 Hudson Street Hoboken NJ across form the Hoboken Path Station, meeting starts at 9pm .
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
the GE Factor
When GE hits a new high the old Wall Street saw is that this is a very bullish signal for US equities. Its just one more thing indicating significantly higher stock markets. 1) my(not a generally shared opinion) reading of the Elliot Wave has switch from long term bear which started in march of 2000 to long term bull 2) DOW Theory says bull market has started 3) the inverted yield curve went back to normal (reverted) and now 4) GE hits a 52 week high .
The evidence continues to stack up that we are experiencing the start of a new bull market.
The evidence continues to stack up that we are experiencing the start of a new bull market.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
A more normal yield curve
The recent moves in interest rates have restored the yield curve back to a more normal status, P/E ratios still remain in my mind very low making US equity markets a global bargain. I would use this correction to pursue further purchases at this time. From the recent stock market action the reversal of the inverted yield curve may be a further bullish signal.
Friday, June 08, 2007
velocity of the change and the dead cat bounce
The market appears to have entered a short term corrective phase, the trick here is to focus on the velocity of the change, If the market sell off fast and furious, the rebound will be of equal magnitude, but if this sell down turns into a slow rolling sell down incomplete in nature and low volume like many of the sell downs in the last several years this could get ugly. Again the two key elements to playing this thing are the velocity of the down turns another words how far how fast and climactic volume which would signal the bottom. Remember that an incomplete sell off could lead to further down side ,so if we get a short term rally but the volume isn’t there be wary ,the correction isn’t over . In the business this is known as the “dead cat bounce” Usually the market sells off for a time with the volume building till finally we have a day were the market hits a new low then rallies under heavy volume, commonly referred to as the big reversal.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
denile is a state of mind not a place on the map
The real issue today is the closing of Prudential’s Equity research and Trading divisions, for those on Wall Street living in denial its further proof of the continued Bear market in US Equities, which this blogger has for previous stated reasons thinks is about to end.
Denial has been the main theme on Wall Street since the 2000 sell off and a failure of this magnitude on Wall Street is feeding the fire that the recovery in US markets is not here just yet .Yes it appears we are still “screwed” as I used to say. This debacle adds short term pressure to this market and further fuels the fire that Prudential’s purchase of Bache Securities was about the worst investment ever made by a financial institution in modern history.
Denial has been the main theme on Wall Street since the 2000 sell off and a failure of this magnitude on Wall Street is feeding the fire that the recovery in US markets is not here just yet .Yes it appears we are still “screwed” as I used to say. This debacle adds short term pressure to this market and further fuels the fire that Prudential’s purchase of Bache Securities was about the worst investment ever made by a financial institution in modern history.
Monday, June 04, 2007
Speculative Money looks to migrate to US markets
The current melt down in the Chinese Market may be the precursor to better US equity markets. Speculative money looks to be starting to migrate from China and other high risk emerging markets too the much lower in valuation US markets which at this juncture offer more upside with lower risk.
Cell Phone Issues
Folks it looks like my cell phone fried yesterday so until I get a new one please contact me at (201)3001-2780 or Toll Free 1(866)492-3959
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
The China syndrome
The China syndrome; the blind faith in the communist countries stock market’s ability to continue to defy all odds and grow without any connection to earnings and cash flow. Well China isn’t the only emerging market that to my mind has grown disproportionately in the last 7 years. While the US economy has increased by 50% in size our stock market has barely kept up with inflation, at the same time emerging markets have flourished and generated outsized gains. A melt down in the emerging markets should be no surprise to anyone who reads this blog on a regular basis, we all know its coming and its just a matter of when. The issue is did the gains in these emerging markets dull investors ability to understand the inherent risks involved in emerging market investing? If investors have granted to much credibility to the quality and stability of these markets we might be in for a nasty surprise. I continue to feel the cat is already out of the bag and the underlining Chinese market has been correcting for some time , so even a significant correction may at this point have little consequence to out side investors.As they say it is hard for me to believe the most anticipated bursting of the China Equity bubble will have the impact of all the dire warnings .
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
news news news
Commercial building is hot in Texas, Florida, California, New York and other parts of the West Coast, Midwest and Northeast, industry officials say. Spending on nonresidential construction was up nearly 14 percent during the first three months of 2007 from last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. (AP)
what some here describe as the first war in cyberspace, a three-week battle that forced the Estonian authorities to defend their small country from a data flood they say was set off by orders from Russia or ethnic Russian sources in retaliation for the removal of the statue. There are still minor disruptions. (Herald Tribune)
CARACAS (AFP) - President Hugo Chavez's clampdown on opposition television stations widened Monday as police used rubber bullets and tear gas on demonstrators protesting what they called an attack on free speech.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell 1.4% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline since 1991, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. A year ago, home prices were rising at an 11.5% pace. The 10-city price index fell 1.9% year-on-year through March, while the 20-city index dropped 1.4%. Thirteen of 20 cities have seen falling prices in the past year, led by Detroit and San Diego. Home prices rose 10% in Seattle. The national decline "is reaffirmation of the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market," said Robert Shiller, chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC, and co-inventor of the index.
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- A tax-cut war is spreading across Europe as leaders of the continent's biggest economies give up criticizing smaller neighbors for slashing business rates and decide to join them instead.
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Colorado and Utah have as much oil as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya, Angola, Algeria, Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates combined.
what some here describe as the first war in cyberspace, a three-week battle that forced the Estonian authorities to defend their small country from a data flood they say was set off by orders from Russia or ethnic Russian sources in retaliation for the removal of the statue. There are still minor disruptions. (Herald Tribune)
CARACAS (AFP) - President Hugo Chavez's clampdown on opposition television stations widened Monday as police used rubber bullets and tear gas on demonstrators protesting what they called an attack on free speech.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell 1.4% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline since 1991, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. A year ago, home prices were rising at an 11.5% pace. The 10-city price index fell 1.9% year-on-year through March, while the 20-city index dropped 1.4%. Thirteen of 20 cities have seen falling prices in the past year, led by Detroit and San Diego. Home prices rose 10% in Seattle. The national decline "is reaffirmation of the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market," said Robert Shiller, chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC, and co-inventor of the index.
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- A tax-cut war is spreading across Europe as leaders of the continent's biggest economies give up criticizing smaller neighbors for slashing business rates and decide to join them instead.
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Colorado and Utah have as much oil as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya, Angola, Algeria, Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates combined.
Friday, May 25, 2007
high risk borrowers and speculators.
Its not that I don’t see how the Real estate slowdown can spill over and crimp the economy as a whole, it’s just that in the past when real estate slowed down interest rates and inflation were higher and raising. I continue to think that with an environment of stable rates and low inflation the damage will be confined mostly to high risk borrowers and speculators.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
in the news
House Minority Leader John Boehner, speaking to a private gathering of Republican activists last night, called the Senate's immigration compromise bill a "piece of shit" but said that he had promised President Bush earlier in the day that he would let his teeth be a barrier to such thoughts in public. (the Hot Line)
The Chinese government is to use $3bn of its vast foreign exchange reserves to buy a 9.9 per cent stake in Blackstone, the US buy-out fund, in an unprecedented move that underlines Beijing’s desire to tap into the private equity boom. (FT)
Eric Schmidt, Google’s chief executive, said gathering more personal data was a key way for Google to expand and the company believes that is the logical extension of its stated mission to organise the world’s information. (FT)
WASHINGTON--With only months left on a moratorium restricting state governments from taxing Internet access, the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday began a debate over whether the ban should be made permanent or allowed to lapse. (CNET News.com)
Climate change will be considered a joke in five years time, meteorologist Augie Auer told the annual meeting of Mid Canterbury Federated Farmers in Ashburton this week. (By ANDREW SWALLOW - The Timaru Herald)
CARACAS (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of protesters on Saturday denounced President Hugo Chavez's plans to close an opposition television channel, accusing their leader of maiming Venezuelan democracy as he forges a socialist state.
Jesse Adam Macbeth, 23, formerly of Phoenix, garnered attention on blogs and in some alternative media after he began claiming in 2005 to have been awarded a Purple Heart for his service, which he said included slaughtering innocents in a Fallujah mosque. His story was contradicted by his discharge form, showing that he was kicked out of the Army after six weeks at Fort Benning, Ga., in 2003 because of his “entry level performance and conduct.” (AP)
Our $99 concert tickets, which I am sure will be printed on recycled paper, do not go towards any concrete measures to halt global warming, or to repair any damage done to the Earth. The proceeds don't go directly to purchasing solar batteries for anyone or subsidising public transport anywhere. The event just goes to raising awareness. And right now? That's not only a waste of time but a gross indulgence. It's just a green rubber bracelet to string on your arm next to the white rubber band that will magically make poverty history, and the yellow one that cures cancer. (theage.comau)
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Only 5 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial (BA, CAT, MO, UTX and XOM) have made substantial gains during the past 7 years with a return of 100% or more
Since the market highs of 2000 only 5 Dow Jones Industrials Stocks have made significant new highs over the last 7 years .
BA
Was 44.00
Is now 96.62
XOM
Was 41.88
Is now 82.94
CAT
Was 25.97
Is now 74.72
MO
Was 18.20
Is now 69.75
UTX
Was 31.91
Is now 69.10
BA
Was 44.00
Is now 96.62
XOM
Was 41.88
Is now 82.94
CAT
Was 25.97
Is now 74.72
MO
Was 18.20
Is now 69.75
UTX
Was 31.91
Is now 69.10
Monday, May 21, 2007
Inflection point
The market rally last week seemed a bit thin, with weaker breath and volume and struck me more as a consolidation week, not really resolving any market direction questions. The S&P 500 is looking to break out to an all time high. If it can push to new highs with stronger volume and breath, this would signal substantially higher markets in my view, however past pushes by major market indexes to new highs have been accompanied by significant short term consolidation periods.
In the long run I am very bullish, but in the short run we are at one of those points that could set the tone of the market for the next several months. My bet is a big push in volume and a move to the upside. Low risk investors may do well to keep their powder dry or take some gains. Longer term and high risk investors should use any setback as a buying opportunity. A move upward accompanied by significantly higher volume would be a very bullish signal, continued muddling along under low volume would suggest more time is needed for bullish technical formations to develop.
In the long run I am very bullish, but in the short run we are at one of those points that could set the tone of the market for the next several months. My bet is a big push in volume and a move to the upside. Low risk investors may do well to keep their powder dry or take some gains. Longer term and high risk investors should use any setback as a buying opportunity. A move upward accompanied by significantly higher volume would be a very bullish signal, continued muddling along under low volume would suggest more time is needed for bullish technical formations to develop.
Friday, May 18, 2007
Here we go again More Consumer Confidence Bull
US Consumer confidence seemed to surprise everyone for being stronger than expected. Again as I have said be for in this modern era with all this information technology .It seems rather odd that polling peoples buying opinions is a better gauge than consumers easily measured real buying habits. Most major retailers could tell you by the minute how much of a particular good is sold so at this point I can only think that easily manipulated consumer confidence surveys are just another symptom of lazy journalism and the agenda driven news epidemic. The economy is far stronger than the consensus is crediting it for. Consumer spending has a certain predictable cyclicality to it and the weather can force significant changes in those patterns. Every time there’s been a slow down of any kind in spending in the last 40 years economist have called for a recession. The old joke is that economist’s have called 9 of the last 2 recessions and are always looking for the 10th.
Monday, May 14, 2007
When to sell and undreperforming Mutual Fund ?
Did you know the average top rated mutual fund can have periods of three consecutive years of underperformance in a ten year period?
Warren Buffett a man of the people always looking out for the little guy
Wow do I love Warren Buffett a man of the people always looking out for the little guy against big bad Wall Street. The man who consistently supports the inheritance tax and most other taxes on the middle class, because he knows full well how to spend your money better than you do ,has suddenly decided to oppose the new proposed landing tax on private jets .Why so ,the increase in private jet landing fees would be used to offset a decrease in landing fees for commercial airlines ,but Mr. Buffet doesn’t want to pay the increased fees for his private jet ,hmmm private jet but doesn’t the man of the people live in the same house and drove the same car since before he came one of the richest men in the world, yea right .
Saturday, May 12, 2007
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Friday, May 11, 2007
Weak retail maybe its just "global warming"?
There is a lot made the recent slow down in retail spending, folks did you forget it rained for 7 straight days causing flooding throughout the north east ? In the short run the weather and higher gas prices can affect retails sales. I am also sure that States like New Jersey with their continued tax increases put a damper on retail cheer as well. Yes folks Taxes raise costs, increased cost slow demand (econ 101). My bet would be that lower retail sales is just a seasonal issue and not the beginning of something more sinister like the “R” word (recession). However, gas prices fluctuate up and down ,but taxes have a tendency to only move higher ,so if we were to see sustained tax increases for some time it would have very negative consequences on economic growth.The weather is and has always been the weather and as they say the, "wind blows all over the place" so from time to time mother nature will let you know whos still boss. The weak housing market is also considered a culprit of weaker retail sales, again did I mention increases in property taxes? The jury is still out as to the effect of a major down turn in housing ,my feeling is that the those that participated in excesses are going to feel the most pain and that this wont spark a national malise.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
FED Watch.........................
Looks like the market is on FED watch ,I am not expecting much either way Baring any major surprise event interest rates should remain stable for most of the year .
Monday, May 07, 2007
The average return in the Dow during that time for the year following a Mid Term Election Year has been an amazing 15.7%
Yearly Return of the Dow since 1943 following a Mid Term Election Year
Year
Return
1943 up 13.8 %
1947 up 2.2 %
1951 up 14.4 %
1955 up 20.8 %
1959 up 16.4 %
1963 up 17 %
1967 up 15.2 %
1971 up 6.7 %
1975 up 38.3 %
1979 up 4.2 %
1983 up 20.3%
1987 up 2.3 %
1991 up 20.3 %
1995 up 33.5 %
1999 up 25.2 %
2003 up 25.3 %
Year
Return
1943 up 13.8 %
1947 up 2.2 %
1951 up 14.4 %
1955 up 20.8 %
1959 up 16.4 %
1963 up 17 %
1967 up 15.2 %
1971 up 6.7 %
1975 up 38.3 %
1979 up 4.2 %
1983 up 20.3%
1987 up 2.3 %
1991 up 20.3 %
1995 up 33.5 %
1999 up 25.2 %
2003 up 25.3 %
in the news..................
Conservative candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has won the hotly-contested French presidential election. The final count gave Mr Sarkozy 53.06%, compared with 46.94% for socialist Segolene Royal, with turnout at 85%. (BBC)
Ballmer may be about to follow up on his pledge. Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker, has held talks with Yahoo! Inc. about a partnership to develop Web search and advertising programs to fight Google, people briefed on the discussions said. That would help remedy what Mehdi says is his one regret in the past year. (Bloomberg)
The record $188 billion of LBOs announced in the first quarter are fueling U.S. investigations of insider trading. Prosecutors charged a Credit Suisse Group investment banker with leaking tips in about nine takeovers on May 3, the second major bust of the year. Seven of the 11 insider lawsuits filed by the SEC this year involve options. (Bloomberg)
Warren Buffett on Sunday said the $5bn hostile bid for Dow Jones by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp is part of a trend that will see an increasing number of newspapers owned by tycoons motivated by more than financial returns.(FT)
“Climate’s always been changing and it’s been changing rapidly at various times, and so something was making it change in the past,” he told us in an interview this past winter. “Before there were enough people to make any difference at all, two million years ago, nobody was changing the climate, yet the climate was changing, okay?” (Reid A. Bryson holds the 30th PhD in Meteorology granted in the history of American education. Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology—now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences)
Ballmer may be about to follow up on his pledge. Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker, has held talks with Yahoo! Inc. about a partnership to develop Web search and advertising programs to fight Google, people briefed on the discussions said. That would help remedy what Mehdi says is his one regret in the past year. (Bloomberg)
The record $188 billion of LBOs announced in the first quarter are fueling U.S. investigations of insider trading. Prosecutors charged a Credit Suisse Group investment banker with leaking tips in about nine takeovers on May 3, the second major bust of the year. Seven of the 11 insider lawsuits filed by the SEC this year involve options. (Bloomberg)
Warren Buffett on Sunday said the $5bn hostile bid for Dow Jones by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp is part of a trend that will see an increasing number of newspapers owned by tycoons motivated by more than financial returns.(FT)
“Climate’s always been changing and it’s been changing rapidly at various times, and so something was making it change in the past,” he told us in an interview this past winter. “Before there were enough people to make any difference at all, two million years ago, nobody was changing the climate, yet the climate was changing, okay?” (Reid A. Bryson holds the 30th PhD in Meteorology granted in the history of American education. Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology—now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences)
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Sell in May and go away ...not so fast
Sell in May and go away ,well maybe, if Crude Oil breaks $68 a barrel then yes but if the resistance holds I would not bet the ranch. The market has exhibited and inverse relationship to the price of crude for some time .Merger activity, over extended foreign markets, extreme bearishness and the lack luster under performance of US markets since March 2000 couple with good over all economic performance all signal it might be time for a catch up rally . By catch up I mean the DOW Jones historically has returned around 11% a year, this would put the DOW Jones somewhere north of 24,000 at this juncture. Unlike many of my Elliot Wave compatriots I fail to see any bullishness at all, in fact in the last several years I have seen a total lack of faith in the markets ability to give even nominal real returns, with many individual investors throwing in the towel. The general political and social predisposition is that of a negative malaise, with doom and gloom being the order of the day and a growing dooms day cult of “global warming” gaining ground with a religious fervor. This brings even a older Wall Street saying ,” when everyone knows something it always wrong” .
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
in the news
Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month. (Bloomberg)
Steve Jobs, chief executive of Apple, was warned in 2001 about the accounting implications of backdating stock options for top executives at the company, Apple’s former chief financial officer said on Tuesday. (FT)
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bond investors who financed the U.S. housing boom are starting to pay the price for slumping home values and record delinquencies in subprime loans.
The propensity to sell start-up technology companies rather than taking them public may rob investors of riches down the line because the companies won't grow into the next Intel Corp. or Cisco Systems Inc., Grady said. Venture investors are pushing for acquisitions instead of risking the expense and uncertainty of the public markets, where a small company is likely to be ignored by increasingly stretched research analysts. (April 24 (Bloomberg)
The proof that it now pays to be bearish can be found in financial futures based on the government's 4 3/4 percent bond maturing in 2037, a benchmark for the 22-year, 11-month rally that began in May 1984 and ended on April 6, says John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Lake in the Hills, Illinois. That's when the price of 30-year Treasury bonds for delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade fell below 110 20/32 and signaled a new direction for the market, he said. The turning point was so obvious that even ``a five-year- old who has a ruler and a pencil can draw a line under the lows and make a determination'' that bond yields have bottomed and are poised to climb for many years to come. (Bloomberg)
WASHINGTON (AP) - For the first time astronomers have discovered a planet outside our solar system that is potentially habitable, with Earth-like temperatures, a find researchers described Tuesday as a big step in the search for "life in the universe."
WASHINGTON, Apr. 24, 2007— As the House and Senate prepare to vote this week on the final conference report on the $124 billion troop funding bill — which would also mandate that U.S. combat troops begin withdrawing from Iraq on Oct. 1 at the latest — Gen. David Petraeus is scheduled to come to the Hill tomorrow to brief lawmakers on the progress of the recent troop escalation. ABC News has learned, however, that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will not attend the briefing. (ABC)
The godfather of modern hip-hop has decided enough is enough. Russell Simmons, the co-founder of Def Jam records and the inspiration behind bands as diverse as Run-DMC, the Beastie Boys and LL Cool J, is as sick of the lazy vulgarity of rap music as many of the rest of us. (Andrew Gumbel in Los Angeles, the Independent)
Friday, April 20, 2007
DOW JONES BREAKS 12900 MARK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Relatively low valuations ,merger and buyout activity .coupled by stable interest rates ,corporate profit growth and lots of cash on the sidelines make it only a matter of time for this market to make a big move upward.....
Thursday, April 19, 2007
news news news
NEW YORK (AP) - The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 12,800 for the first time Wednesday, signaling Wall Street's recovery from its steep decline in February as investors rewarded companies with strong earnings.
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at a faster- than-forecast 11.1 percent pace in the first quarter from a year earlier, raising the likelihood the government will increase interest rates to curb the risk of overheating.
NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - Users of the hand-held BlackBerry e-mail device, a communications lifeline for movers and shakers from the White House to Wall Street, endured hours of disrupted service before the system was restored on Wednesday.
Iraq could hold almost twice as much oil in its reserves as had been thought, according to the most comprehensive independent study of its resources since the US-led invasion in 2003. (FT)
VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran has begun making nuclear fuel in its underground uranium enrichment plant, the international atomic watchdog said on Wednesday, in a move by Tehran that raises the stakes in its showdown with world powers.
China claimed yesterday to have caused a snowfall for the first time as part of its increasingly ambitious attempts to control the weather. (UKTELEGRAPH)
(CNSNews.com) - Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, pledged Wednesday to push legislation that would put caps on carbon emissions in an effort to fight global warming.
(CBS/AP) BROOKLYN A young whale thrashed the water, beached itself at an oil depot dock and died suddenly on Wednesday after two days of swimming aimlessly in a small bay off an industrial section of Brooklyn.
MOSCOW -- Russia plans to build the world's longest tunnel under the Bering Strait to Alaska as part of a $65 billion project to supply the United States with oil, natural gas and electricity from Siberia. (Washington Times)
(Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - Nineteen-year-old Najwa Hashash was so unhappy after her recent wedding that she was ready to carry out a suicide bombing, a report on the Israeli internet site YNET said. Israeli forces arrested Hashash in the Balata refugee camp of the West Bank city of Nablus earlier this week.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Earnings Earings Everywhere
It never ceases to amaze me; last week I mentioned that the market had been alternating between up and down weeks. This fact became widely know and as always once we all know something is going to happen, it doesn’t. Concern is now shifting to earnings this week and while the doomsayers are speculating about the demise of corporate earnings, I would suggest that the strong earnings growth of the last 5 odd years seems to be nowhere near abating. The question remains as to when equity markets will begin to recognize this fact with higher equity valuations.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Why Are Taxes Due on April 15th ,this year April 17th
Congress passed the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution, which allows for the implementation of personal income tax, on February 3, 1913, and chose March 1 of the following year as the filing deadline. The deadline was changed to March 15 in 1918, and, to April 15 in 1955. Moving back the date from the end of the tax year served two purposes -- it gave the IRS more time to handle the work and, more importantly, more time to hang on to your money before issuing you a refund.
U.S. Constitution: Sixteenth Amendment:
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.
U.S. Constitution: Sixteenth Amendment:
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Earnings News in full Swnig
Its all about earnings and I suspect corporate earnings will be a bit stronger than many suspect.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
The FED's job is to worry about inflation
A lot of investors seemed shocked to learn that the FED is still very concerned about inflation. May I take this moment to remind you that one of the FED’s primary functions is to ensure price stability, so to put it another way the FED’s job is to worry about inflation? I would be much more concerned if the FED wasn’t focuses in on inflation.
Folks no reason to think otherwise : the FED will stay on hold for the remainder of this year
Folks no reason to think otherwise : the FED will stay on hold for the remainder of this year
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Alternating between ups and downs
Since the sell off at the end of February the market has developed an interesting pattern alternating between down and up weeks trending higher. If this pattern continues then this week could be a down week for the market so we shall see what happens
Monday, April 09, 2007
Thinking about investing;
Thinking about investing ;
Correlation doesn't equal causation...On Wall Street like many other industries there is a tendency for the conscientious to pronounce a knee jerk causal relationship between the specific events or data point of the day and then to take comfort in a particular action in the stock market. Equity Markets react too many variables, both perceived and concrete. Long term investors should be very cautious in accepting these causal relationships because over time the links often prove tenuous at best. It is good to remain skeptical of any conscientious in causal relationships because they often prove inaccurate. The point being that these artificial causalities can often influence your investment decisions creating faulty premises and failed investments.
The tendency of us mere mortals to think in a purely linear fashion and make assumptions that the rate of change we see before our eyes to day will remain the same indefinitely. This causes investors to make assumptions about what drives the market. Investors often make this mistake when they want to buy a stock that has gone up a lot. Over time the rate of change fluctuates and as they like to say around here past performance is no indication of future performance.
Big News I have been chosen for a test shoot for the HDTV Channel TV show
,“Wall Street Warriors”
http://www.mojohd.com/video/?sid=8&eid=4
Don’t for get your IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000 $3,500
2005
$4,000 $4,500
2006-2007
$4,000 $5,000
2008
$5,000 $6,000
For further information please call:
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
1(866)492-3959
www.onesmallvoice.com
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Correlation doesn't equal causation...On Wall Street like many other industries there is a tendency for the conscientious to pronounce a knee jerk causal relationship between the specific events or data point of the day and then to take comfort in a particular action in the stock market. Equity Markets react too many variables, both perceived and concrete. Long term investors should be very cautious in accepting these causal relationships because over time the links often prove tenuous at best. It is good to remain skeptical of any conscientious in causal relationships because they often prove inaccurate. The point being that these artificial causalities can often influence your investment decisions creating faulty premises and failed investments.
The tendency of us mere mortals to think in a purely linear fashion and make assumptions that the rate of change we see before our eyes to day will remain the same indefinitely. This causes investors to make assumptions about what drives the market. Investors often make this mistake when they want to buy a stock that has gone up a lot. Over time the rate of change fluctuates and as they like to say around here past performance is no indication of future performance.
Big News I have been chosen for a test shoot for the HDTV Channel TV show
,“Wall Street Warriors”
http://www.mojohd.com/video/?sid=8&eid=4
Don’t for get your IRA Contribution Limits
YEAR
AGE 49 & BELOW AGE 50 & ABOVE
2002-2004
$3,000 $3,500
2005
$4,000 $4,500
2006-2007
$4,000 $5,000
2008
$5,000 $6,000
For further information please call:
James Foytlin
Independent Investment Representative
1(866)492-3959
www.onesmallvoice.com
www.jamesfoytlin.com
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
in the news
Corporate profitability rose to its historically highest level at the end of last year as manufacturing and service sector companies benefited from strong sales growth combined with lower energy prices and subdued wage pressures. (FT)
April 4, 2007 -- While the TV networks and advertisers haggle with Nielsen over the best way to track commercial viewing, Google is doing an end run around the ratings giant with a new system that will tell advertisers how many people watched their TV spots and for how long. (NY POST)
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — A man who contended that he was not required to pay income tax, and whose case led to an indictment against actor Wesley Snipes, was sentenced Tuesday to 27 months in prison.
The New York Coal Trade Association, headquartered in New York City, recently held its 94th annual banquet and meeting at the New York Hilton. One of the guest speakers was Bob Murray, founder and CEO of Murray Energy Corporation and probably one of the few CEOs brave enough to challenge the militant climate control movement that threatens the future of America's economy. In his speech, he dared to say that he regards Al Gore as the shaman of global doom and gloom. He is not joking when he says, "He is more dangerous than his global warming."
The heavy condemnatory breathing on the subject of global warming outdoes anything since high moments of the Inquisition. ( William F. Buckley)
DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday. (AP)
Europe has eclipsed the US in stock market value for the first time since the first world war in another sign of the slipping of the global dominance of American capital markets. (FT)
DETROIT (AP) - Toyota's U.S. sales jumped 11.7 percent last month, boosted by record hybrid sales and strong overall car sales, while industry leader GM's total slipped 4 percent, Ford posted a 9 percent decline and DaimlerChrysler fell 4.1 percent. The U.S. division of Japan's Honda posted a double-digit increase.
BAGHDAD (AP) - The Iraqi government announced plans Tuesday to shorten the curfew in the capital by two hours, saying security had improved enough to let residents stay on the streets until 10 p.m.
April 4, 2007 -- While the TV networks and advertisers haggle with Nielsen over the best way to track commercial viewing, Google is doing an end run around the ratings giant with a new system that will tell advertisers how many people watched their TV spots and for how long. (NY POST)
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — A man who contended that he was not required to pay income tax, and whose case led to an indictment against actor Wesley Snipes, was sentenced Tuesday to 27 months in prison.
The New York Coal Trade Association, headquartered in New York City, recently held its 94th annual banquet and meeting at the New York Hilton. One of the guest speakers was Bob Murray, founder and CEO of Murray Energy Corporation and probably one of the few CEOs brave enough to challenge the militant climate control movement that threatens the future of America's economy. In his speech, he dared to say that he regards Al Gore as the shaman of global doom and gloom. He is not joking when he says, "He is more dangerous than his global warming."
The heavy condemnatory breathing on the subject of global warming outdoes anything since high moments of the Inquisition. ( William F. Buckley)
DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday. (AP)
Europe has eclipsed the US in stock market value for the first time since the first world war in another sign of the slipping of the global dominance of American capital markets. (FT)
DETROIT (AP) - Toyota's U.S. sales jumped 11.7 percent last month, boosted by record hybrid sales and strong overall car sales, while industry leader GM's total slipped 4 percent, Ford posted a 9 percent decline and DaimlerChrysler fell 4.1 percent. The U.S. division of Japan's Honda posted a double-digit increase.
BAGHDAD (AP) - The Iraqi government announced plans Tuesday to shorten the curfew in the capital by two hours, saying security had improved enough to let residents stay on the streets until 10 p.m.
Monday, April 02, 2007
The infamous or famous FED Model indicates that equities are the cheapest in 20 years
The infamous or famous FED Model indicates that equities are the cheapest in 20 years and some fund managers report to being wildly optimistic. As many of you know I have been wildly optimistic about equity valuations since 2000 to no avail. I generally like to blow against the wind and it makes me a bit uncomfortable with this growing choirs of raging bulls. But let me repeat once again, the stock since 2000 has barely outperformed cash and on an adjusted real basis underperformed cash .This is simply unheard of . By my calculations the DOW Jones Index should be somewhere around 13400 just to be even with inflation .Corporate profits though appearing to be decelerating make up the largest part of the GDP in years. Enormous pools of cash are sitting on the sidelines and in corporate and hedge fund coffers. Like the early 1980’s buyouts and takeovers are rampant. What we all seem to be looking for is the catalyst that will spark a new bull market. You gotta think this market has got to move higher from hear.
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